What will the Iranian foreign minister say on Face the Nation?
1. Executive Verdict
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diplomacy | 1.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Trump | 1.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Threat / Threatening | 7.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Uranium | 1.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Netanyahu | 1.0% | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Data
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diplomacy | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Israel / Israeli | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Nuclear | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Peace / Peaceful | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| War | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Threat / Threatening | $0.07 | $0.97 | 7% |
| Netanyahu | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Protest / Protester | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Ramadan | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Supreme Leader | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Trump | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Uranium | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
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