What will Powell say during his April press conference?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Powell will say 'Good Afternoon' during his April press conference, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Core PCE inflation significantly exceeded Fed's March 2026 projections.
- FOMC speech analysis was limited, key word ratios undetermined.
- April 2026 Financial Stability Report was unavailable for analysis.
- White House emphasized "full employment" in early 2026 commentary.
- Market expected no June 2026 rate cut on April 29.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Good Afternoon | 97.0% | 96.7% | The provided background research is high-quality secondary evidence regarding recent economic data and Fed projections, but it offers no information relevant to whether Jerome Powell will say "Good Afternoon" during an April press conference, thus providing no shift from the debiased probability that assumes this common greeting. |
| Projection | 63.0% | 74.5% | Recent Core PCE inflation and U-3 unemployment data show significant deviations from the Fed's March 2026 SEP projections, compelling Powell to address these trends and provide updated economic projections or outlooks in his April press conference. |
| Trump | 7.0% | 2.7% | The provided background research details economic data and Fed projections, offering no relevant information regarding whether Powell will mention Trump, thus leading to a neutral shift in probability as the evidence supports neither the market being correct nor incorrect on this specific outcome. |
| Oil | 92.0% | 89.8% | The evidence, based on primary official sources, indicates Core PCE inflation running above Fed projections and unemployment below projections, suggesting a hawkish Fed concerned with underlying inflation; however, the research's specific focus on *core* inflation, which excludes energy, slightly weakens the direct relevance to Powell specifically mentioning oil compared to the 91% debiased anchor. |
| Dollar | 53.0% | 63.7% | The evidence shows Core PCE inflation and U-3 unemployment are both stronger than the Fed's March SEP projections, strongly supporting a hawkish stance from Powell and thus a stronger dollar, despite the possibility of Powell attempting to temper expectations. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market, which speculates on whether Chairman Powell will use a specific term in his April press conference, has exhibited a sideways trading pattern within a defined range. The price opened at its peak of 17.0% before declining to a low of 7.0%. It has since recovered to its current level of 14.0%. The initial drop from the market's high suggests that early traders may have overestimated the probability, with subsequent trading correcting this sentiment. The lack of specific external news or context means these price fluctuations are likely driven by initial price discovery and evolving trader expectations rather than a specific event.
Trading volume provides insight into market conviction. The initial price movements occurred on very low volume, indicating a period of price discovery with limited participation. A significant increase in volume, with 170.87 contracts traded, coincided with the price recovering to the 14.0% level, suggesting this price point attracted more significant interest and may represent a level of consensus among participants. Key price levels have been established, with 17.0% acting as initial resistance and 7.0% serving as a clear support floor.
Overall market sentiment suggests a low but non-trivial probability of the event occurring. The price action, contained between 7.0% and 17.0%, indicates that traders are uncertain but have established clear boundaries for their expectations. The current price of 14.0%, supported by the most significant volume so far, points to a stabilization of sentiment in the low-teens, reflecting a market that is awaiting further information or a catalyst to justify a move outside of this established range.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 08, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 3.0% to 12.0%
Outcome: Trade War
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if the Federal Reserve Chair says "Dollar" (including plural or possessive forms) during his April 2026 post-FOMC meeting introductory remarks and Q&A; otherwise, it resolves to "No." Verification relies primarily on video, with official transcripts as backup, and confirms the exact word without other grammatical inflections. The market, covering an event on April 29, 2026, opened on March 24, 2026, and will close after the outcome occurs or by April 30, 2026, 10:00 am EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes post-closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expectation | $0.98 | $0.03 | 97% |
| Good Afternoon | $0.98 | $0.03 | 97% |
| Unchanged | $0.98 | $0.03 | 97% |
| Anchor / Anchored | $0.96 | $0.05 | 96% |
| Oil | $0.92 | $0.09 | 92% |
| Restrictive | $0.90 | $0.12 | 88% |
| Uncertainty | $0.88 | $0.14 | 88% |
| Layoff | $0.86 | $0.15 | 85% |
| Shock | $0.84 | $0.17 | 83% |
| Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas | $0.80 | $0.22 | 80% |
| Productivity | $0.79 | $0.26 | 79% |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | $0.78 | $0.23 | 78% |
| Pandemic | $0.75 | $0.26 | 74% |
| Projection | $0.63 | $0.39 | 63% |
| Tariff Inflation | $0.63 | $0.38 | 63% |
| Balance Sheet | $0.62 | $0.39 | 62% |
| Goods inflation | $0.65 | $0.38 | 62% |
| Central Bank | $0.56 | $0.45 | 56% |
| Softening | $0.55 | $0.47 | 55% |
| Credit | $0.55 | $0.46 | 54% |
| Dollar | $0.54 | $0.47 | 53% |
| Recession | $0.43 | $0.58 | 43% |
| Median | $0.31 | $0.70 | 33% |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | $0.30 | $0.71 | 30% |
| Slowdown / Slow Down | $0.30 | $0.74 | 30% |
| Probability | $0.26 | $0.75 | 26% |
| Iran | $0.24 | $0.77 | 24% |
| Volatility | $0.24 | $0.77 | 24% |
| Stagflation | $0.22 | $0.79 | 22% |
| President | $0.21 | $0.80 | 21% |
| Replace / Replaces / Replaced / Replacement | $0.19 | $0.83 | 19% |
| Tax | $0.17 | $0.84 | 16% |
| Consumer Confidence | $0.15 | $0.86 | 15% |
| QT / Quantitative Tightening | $0.15 | $0.86 | 15% |
| Dissent | $0.15 | $0.86 | 14% |
| Yield Curve | $0.12 | $0.90 | 14% |
| Pardon | $0.11 | $0.91 | 11% |
| QE / Quantitative Easing | $0.08 | $0.93 | 11% |
| Dot Plot | $0.10 | $0.91 | 10% |
| Gold | $0.07 | $0.94 | 8% |
| Soft Landing | $0.08 | $0.93 | 8% |
| Trade War | $0.06 | $0.95 | 8% |
| National Debt | $0.07 | $0.94 | 7% |
| Trump | $0.07 | $0.94 | 7% |
| Renovation | $0.06 | $0.95 | 5% |
| Bitcoin | $0.05 | $0.96 | 4% |
| Egg | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Kalshi | $0.03 | $0.99 | 3% |
Market Discussion
The market indicates a slight majority expects Powell to mention "Softening" (55%), "Credit" (54%), and "Dollar" (53%) during his April press conference, with traders arguing these are common phrases for a Fed Chair. However, some participants express dissatisfaction with the current market options, suggesting more relevant economic terms such as "disinflation," "inflation," or "assess/assessment" should be included. There's no strong consensus for or against any specific word, but a general lean towards 'Yes' for the listed terms.
5. How Do Recent Economic Data Compare to Fed Projections?
| Fed 2026 Core PCE Projection | 2.0 - 2.1% (Q4/Q4) [^] |
|---|---|
| Actual Core PCE Inflation | 2.4% in January 2026 (year-over-year) [^] |
| Actual U-3 Unemployment Rate | 3.8% in March 2026 [^] |
Core PCE inflation has significantly exceeded the Fed's March 2026 projections. The Federal Reserve's March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) anticipated 2026 Core PCE inflation, measured as a Q4/Q4 percentage change, to range from 2.0 to 2.1 percent [^]. However, actual year-over-year Core PCE inflation reached 2.3 percent in December 2025 [^] and further increased to 2.4 percent in January 2026 [^]. This observed upward trend in early 2026 indicates that inflationary pressures have been running higher than the central tendency projections.
Conversely, the U-3 unemployment rate has remained below expectations. The Fed's March 2026 SEP projected the 2026 U-3 unemployment rate, based on a Q4 average, to fall between 3.9 and 4.0 percent [^]. The most recent data, however, showed the actual U-3 unemployment rate for March 2026 at 3.8 percent [^]. This suggests a tighter labor market than the central tendency of the March 2026 projections, potentially contributing to persistent wage growth that could further influence inflation.
6. Why Is FOMC Speech Analysis Limited for March-April 2026?
| Total 2026 FOMC Voting Members | 12 [^] |
|---|---|
| Identified Hawkish 2026 Voting Members | 2 (Christopher Waller, Lorie Logan) [^] |
| Identified Dovish 2026 Voting Members | 1 (Austan Goolsbee) [^] |
The frequency ratio of forward-looking risk words versus inflation-fighting words could not be determined. This analysis, intended for the public speeches of the three most dovish and three most hawkish voting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members between March and April 2026, was not feasible. The primary limitations were the insufficient identification of the specified number of 'most dovish' and 'most hawkish' voting members, coupled with a scarcity of their public speeches within the designated timeframe.
Insufficient identification of specific FOMC members hindered the analysis considerably. The 2026 FOMC comprises 12 voting members [^]. While two hawkish voting members, Christopher Waller and Lorie Logan, and one dovish voting member, Austan Goolsbee, were identified from the 2026 roster [^], the research did not provide a third 'most hawkish' or additional 'most dovish' members necessary to fulfill the research scope.
Limited public speeches further restricted the analysis timeframe, preventing calculation of the ratio. Only two relevant speeches from any voting members were available for the March-April 2026 period: one by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan in April 2026 [^] and another by Governor Michael Barr in March 2026 [^]. Consequently, the lack of a sufficient number of identified members and corresponding public speeches ultimately prevented the calculation of the requested frequency ratio.
7. What Risks Were Highlighted in the April 2026 Financial Stability Report?
| Report Requested | April 2026 Financial Stability Report (Not available) [^] |
|---|---|
| Most Recent Available Reports | April 2025, November 2025 Financial Stability Reports [^] |
| Other Available Report | April 2024 Financial Stability Report [^] |
The April 2026 Financial Stability Report was unavailable for review. Therefore, it is not possible to identify the specific financial stability risks highlighted within the 'Key Vulnerabilities' section of the Federal Reserve's April 2026 Financial Stability Report based on the provided research materials. Direct access to this particular publication would be necessary to accurately address the inquiry.
8. What Economic Mandates Does the White House Emphasize to the Fed?
| March Jobs Report | Strong, signaling accelerating momentum [^] |
|---|---|
| Fed Rate Cut Pressure | Ramped up by President Trump [^] |
| Rate Cut Justification | To stimulate economic activity and employment [^] |
The White House emphasized 'full employment' in its economic commentary during early 2026. From March 1 to April 28, 2026, the administration's messaging consistently highlighted job growth as a key indicator of economic success. On April 5, 2026, a White House statement celebrated a "Strong March Jobs Report," noting it as signaling "accelerating momentum under President Trump" [^]. This explicit highlighting of job creation demonstrated a clear focus on the employment side of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.
President Trump significantly pressured the Federal Reserve for interest rate cuts. This push for lower interest rates occurred despite concurrent mentions of both "strong jobs" and "inflation" [^]. The administration's rationale for seeking rate reductions was primarily to stimulate overall economic activity, boost aggregate demand, and further support job creation, directly aligning with the 'full employment' mandate. This position was consistent with the President's broader calls for "lowest rates" to foster economic expansion [^]. While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also issued public statements, the President's direct calls for rate cuts, coupled with the White House's celebration of job growth, underscored a predominant focus on influencing the Fed toward policies that support maximum employment [^].
9. How do market and Fed views on 2026 rate cuts compare?
| Implied probability June 2026 rate cut | Approximately 0% (Fed Funds futures, April 29, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Probability of rate cut by median projection | 100% (March 2026 dot plot) [^] |
| Difference in probabilities | 100 percentage points [^] |
Market expectations on April 29, 2026, indicated no June 2026 rate cut. On the morning of April 29, 2026, Fed Funds futures pricing suggested an approximately 0% implied probability of a rate cut at the June 2026 FOMC meeting [^]. This market sentiment was attributed to factors such as strong jobs data, rising bond yields, and crude oil prices exceeding $110 per barrel, which contributed to increased gas and mortgage rates, effectively pricing out any federal funds rate reductions for 2026 [^].
March 2026 dot plot projected high likelihood of future rate cuts. In contrast, the median projection from the March 2026 FOMC dot plot implied a 100% probability of at least one rate cut occurring by the end of 2026 [^]. This outlook was consistent with the overall March 2026 Fed Dot Plot, which generally forecast a federal funds rate in the low-3% range by 2027, indicating that FOMC members anticipated future rate reductions from the then-current policy rate [^].
A stark 100-percentage-point difference emerged between market and Fed projections. Consequently, a significant divergence existed between market expectations and the Federal Reserve's median projections. The approximately 0% implied probability of a June 2026 rate cut from futures contracts on April 29, 2026, compared to the 100% probability implied by the March 2026 dot plot, resulted in a substantial difference of 100 percentage points.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: April 30, 2026
- Closes: April 30, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 8 resolved YES, 12 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXFEDMENTION-26MAR-OIL: YES (Mar 18, 2026)
- KXFEDMENTION-26MAR-IRAN: NO (Mar 18, 2026)
- KXFEDMENTION-26MAR-DOLL: YES (Mar 18, 2026)
- KXFEDMENTION-26MAR-SHOC: YES (Mar 18, 2026)
- KXFEDMENTION-26MAR-SLOW: NO (Mar 18, 2026)
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