What will Karoline Leavitt say in the next press briefing?
1. Executive Verdict
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Epstein | 39% | — | Insufficient data |
| Stupid Question | 7% | — | Insufficient data |
| Stock Market | 27% | — | Insufficient data |
| Bad Bunny | 8% | — | Insufficient data |
| Radical Left | 30% | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Data
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICE / National Guard | $0.85 | $0.36 | 85% |
| Illegal Alien | $0.84 | $0.28 | 84% |
| Border | $0.82 | $0.27 | 82% |
| FBI | $0.79 | $0.27 | 79% |
| Biden | $0.76 | $0.27 | 76% |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | $0.74 | $0.33 | 74% |
| Home / Housing | $0.70 | $0.43 | 70% |
| Affordable / Affordability | $0.66 | $0.45 | 66% |
| Credit | $0.64 | $0.56 | 64% |
| Terrorist / Narcoterrorist | $0.60 | $0.48 | 60% |
| Election | $0.59 | $0.46 | 59% |
| Tariff | $0.59 | $0.45 | 59% |
| China | $0.56 | $0.69 | 56% |
| Ukraine | $0.45 | $0.56 | 45% |
| Healthcare | $0.43 | $0.60 | 43% |
| Epstein | $0.39 | $0.63 | 39% |
| Kidnap / Kidnapping / Kidnapped | $0.35 | $0.66 | 35% |
| Supreme Court | $0.34 | $0.85 | 34% |
| Radical Left | $0.30 | $0.74 | 30% |
| Olympic / Olympics | $0.27 | $0.76 | 27% |
| Stock Market | $0.27 | $0.74 | 27% |
| TrumpRX / TrumpRX.gov | $0.21 | $0.80 | 21% |
| Protest / Protester | $0.16 | $0.86 | 16% |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | $0.09 | $0.95 | 9% |
| Gerrymandering | $0.09 | $0.94 | 9% |
| Bad Bunny | $0.08 | $0.93 | 8% |
| Stupid Question | $0.07 | $0.94 | 7% |
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