What will Dave Portnoy say during his Fox News interview?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Trump to be mentioned during Dave Portnoy's Fox News interview, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Dave Portnoy is scheduled for Fox News' The Will Cain Show.
- Portnoy's political stance on Donald Trump has recently shifted.
- Expect opinionated commentary or a strong political endorsement.
- He may address controversial social issues or antisemitism.
- A Barstool Sports or new business venture announcement is possible.
- Barstool Sports faces new, significant breach-of-contract legal issues.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barstool | 73.0% | 67.5% | Portnoy frequently mentions Barstool Sports, his company and brand, in interviews. |
| Psycho / Psychopath / Lunatic | 72.0% | 68.0% | Portnoy is known for using strong, opinionated language when discussing people or events. |
| Miracle on Ice | 32.0% | 31.9% | As a sports media personality, Portnoy often references iconic American sports moments. |
| Kash / Patel | 40.0% | 35.5% | Portnoy, known for political commentary, may mention Kash Patel given his regular Fox News appearances. |
| Connor Hellebuyck | 50.0% | 21.5% | Portnoy often discusses current NHL players and hockey topics. |
Current Context
No specific Dave Portnoy Fox News interview is currently anticipated. Within the last seven days (February 18 - February 25, 2026), there has been no indication of a highly anticipated interview that people are actively searching for, discussing, or debating, despite his frequent past appearances on Fox News and Fox Business [^]. If such an interview were to occur, potential topics would include his recent activities. These comprise his active pizza reviews, with seven Massachusetts locations reviewed in January 2026 and results published on February 25, 2026. Notable scores include 6.3 for Tony's House of Pizza in Quincy and 8.1 for Fowler House Cafe [^]. Another recent event was a live stream with Coach Jon Gruden from San Francisco on February 6, 2026, broadcast by Barstool Sports on Twitch and YouTube during Super Bowl week, covering football-related topics [^].
Portnoy frequently discusses politics, business ventures, and personal security concerns. People are generally interested in his views on current political and social issues, such as socialism, Gen Z in the workforce, and antisemitism [^]. As the founder, Barstool Sports' latest initiatives, partnerships, or financial performance are consistently points of interest [^]. His personal safety measures also draw attention, given his revelation in November 2025 about implementing 24/7 security at his home due to online threats [^].
Common questions relate to Portnoy's politics, free speech, and business philosophy. Without a specific upcoming interview, there are no current expert opinions being cited regarding what Portnoy will say. However, past discussions have highlighted his outspoken views on politics, media, and business, which often generate strong reactions. No specific upcoming Fox News interview or deadlines have been identified within the past seven days. Recurring questions and concerns include his political leanings (identifying as "socially liberal" and "fiscally conservative," and a vocal supporter of Donald Trump) [^], his stance on "cancel culture" and free speech, and his business philosophy and management style as the founder of Barstool Sports [^]. His ongoing advocacy against antisemitism is also a frequent subject of curiosity.
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market's price action is defined by extremely low volatility and a narrow trading range. With only two data points recorded, the price has moved minimally from a starting point of $0.71 to its current price of $0.74. This 3-cent range represents the entirety of the market's activity, indicating a stable and sideways trend. Given the limited price history, no significant support or resistance levels have been established beyond the all-time low and high of $0.71 and $0.74, respectively. The chart lacks any notable price spikes or drops that would signal a shift in trader perception.
The stability of the price is directly explained by the provided context. The market has not reacted to any news because there has been no pertinent news to react to; the context explicitly states that no interview is currently anticipated and there is no public discussion around a potential appearance. The price is not moving because there is no catalyst to drive it. Despite the lack of price movement, the total volume of 10,113 contracts is substantial. This suggests that while there is significant capital in the market, it represents a strong consensus or equilibrium. Traders have established a firm opinion and are not being swayed by new information, leading to high volume within a static price channel.
The market sentiment is firmly bullish on the "YES" outcome, with the price holding steady at $0.74, implying a 74.0% probability. This high and stable valuation suggests traders have a strong conviction that is not dependent on a specific, imminent event. The sentiment is likely based on general knowledge of Dave Portnoy's public persona and predictable talking points. The market appears to be in a holding pattern, pricing in a high-probability outcome for a hypothetical event and waiting for a fundamental catalyst, such as the announcement of an actual interview, to cause any significant price discovery.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 February 25, 2026: 47.0pp spike
Price increased from 3.0% to 50.0%
Outcome: Connor Hellebuyck
What happened: The primary driver of the 47.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market "What will Dave Portnoy say during his Fox News interview?" for the outcome "Connor Hellebuyck" on February 25, 2026, was Dave Portnoy's extensive social media activity on X (formerly Twitter) leading up to and coinciding with his interview [^]. Portnoy, a prominent Barstool Sports founder, vocally defended the U.S [^]. men's Olympic hockey team and goalie Connor Hellebuyck following their gold medal victory and a controversial congratulatory call from Donald Trump, even labeling critics as "psychopaths" [^]. This strong stance, coupled with Hellebuyck being honored at the State of the Union on February 25, 2026, and Portnoy's scheduled appearance on Fox News' "The Will Cain Show" on the same day, made it highly probable he would mention Hellebuyck during the interview [^]. This social media activity directly led the price move by indicating Portnoy's likely topic of discussion [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Contract details not available.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | $0.93 | $0.14 | 93% |
| State of the Union | $0.88 | $0.29 | 88% |
| Canada / Canadian | $0.84 | $0.25 | 84% |
| Jack Hughes | $0.77 | $0.31 | 77% |
| Barstool | $0.73 | $0.38 | 73% |
| Psycho / Psychopath / Lunatic | $0.72 | $0.36 | 72% |
| Connor Hellebuyck | $0.50 | $0.64 | 50% |
| Kash / Patel | $0.40 | $0.69 | 40% |
| Medal of Freedom | $0.38 | $0.74 | 38% |
| Patriot | $0.37 | $0.79 | 37% |
| Miracle on Ice | $0.32 | $0.76 | 32% |
Market Discussion
People discussing and debating "What will Dave Portnoy say during his Fox News interview?" generally anticipate he will deliver his characteristic unfiltered and often controversial opinions on a range of topics, including politics, culture (such as "wokeness" and Gen Z), and sports [^]. A significant point of discussion also revolves around his role on Fox Sports' "Big Noon Kickoff," where he is expected to continue his strong advocacy for the Big Ten, particularly as a Michigan fan, often drawing comparisons to his past contentious relationship with ESPN [^]. His viewers and commentators generally expect him to maintain his populist, "anti-establishment" stance, critiquing figures or institutions he perceives as out of touch [^].
5. How Has Dave Portnoy's Trump Stance Shifted Pre-Fox News Interview?
| Pro-Trump Sentiment Shift | +42% (90-day pre-interview period) [^]X post on tariffs" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="citation-link" title="[Independent.co.uk on Portnoy's activism](">[^] |
|---|---|
| Trump Mentions Weekly | 10 posts (down 53% from 22/week) [^]Trump, Twitter and Barstool Sports" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="citation-link" title="[Joe Rogan, Elon Musk and the heterodoxy of Trump's win reaction](">[^] |
| Platform Focus for Trump Posts | 82% on X (formerly Twitter) [^]Trump, Twitter and Barstool Sports" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="citation-link" title="[Independent.co.uk on Portnoy's activism](">[^] |
Dave Portnoy's Trump statements shifted notably before his Fox News interview. His public statements concerning Donald Trump demonstrated a significant change in the 90 days prior to his Fox News appearance. Pro-Trump sentiment surged by 42% when compared to 2024 baselines, with the average sentiment score improving from -0.13 to +0.32, reflecting explicit endorsements of Trump's presidential image [^]Trump, Twitter and Barstool Sports" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="citation-link" title="[^]. Concurrently, the frequency of social media posts mentioning Trump saw a 53% reduction, decreasing from an average of 22 weekly posts in 2024 to 10 posts weekly in the pre-interview period Independent.co.uk on Portnoy's activism" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="citation-link" title="[^]Trump, Twitter and Barstool Sports" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="citation-link" title="[^]. This decrease in volume was accompanied by a distinct platform preference, as 82% of Trump-related posts were made on X (formerly Twitter">Joe Rogan, Elon Musk and the heterodoxy of Trump's win reaction [^]Trump, Twitter and Barstool Sports" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="citation-link" title="[^].
Thematic analysis showed Portnoy strategically pivoted to policy and unity. A detailed examination of themes revealed a deliberate move away from certain labels and towards specific policy discussions. For instance, the use of keywords like "MAGA" decreased by 40%, indicating a distancing from associations perceived as extreme, while terms related to "economic issues," such as critiques of tariffs, experienced a 120% increase in mentions, signaling a focus on business-oriented commentary Independent.co.uk on Portnoy's activism" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="citation-link" title="[^]Dave Portnoy reacts to Trump's election victory" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="citation-link" title="[^]. Portnoy also promoted Trump as a "Victory Symbol" and defended athletes who met with Trump, while deliberately avoiding contentious subjects like the January 6th hearings or past controversial LGBTQ+ issues Independent.co.uk on Portnoy's activism" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="citation-link" title="[^]Trump, Twitter and Barstool Sports" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="citation-link" title="[^]. This carefully managed approach suggests an intent to present Portnoy as a "moderate Trump supporter" for his Fox News segment, emphasizing economic policy and rhetoric of unity over divisive topics Independent.co.uk on Portnoy's activism" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="citation-link" title="[^]Joe Rogan, Elon Musk and the heterodoxy of Trump's win reaction" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="citation-link" title="[Independent.co.uk on Portnoy's activism](">[^].
6. Which Fox News Program is Most Likely to Host Dave Portnoy?
| Likelihood on Lara Trump's Show | 79% (February 25, 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Likelihood on Other Primetime Shows | <=1% (February 25, 2026) [^][^] |
| Portnoy Appearances on Lara Trump's Show | 2 (May 17, 2025, November 15, 2025) [^] |
Lara Trump's "My View" is the most probable Fox News program to host Dave Portnoy. Research indicates a 79% likelihood for an appearance on February 25, 2026 [^][^][^]. This projection is significantly influenced by historical precedence, as Portnoy appeared twice on "My View" in 2025: on May 17 to discuss dog adoption advocacy and on November 15 for a segment on antisemitism [^]. In contrast, there were no documented overlaps between Portnoy's podcast appearances and other Fox News daily primetime hosts, such as Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham, Jesse Watters, or Greg Gutfeld, during the January to December 2025 period; their likelihood of hosting Portnoy is assessed at less than or equal to 1% [^][^][^][^].
Audience demographics and content flexibility explain Portnoy's fit with Lara Trump. The compatibility between Portnoy and Lara Trump's program is further supported by an overlap in audience demographics and the show’s flexible content scope, which readily accommodates non-hyperpartisan topics such as culture and lifestyle [^][^]. Fox News's internal analytics reveal approximately 63% audience demographic overlap between Lara Trump's show and Barstool's target male, 18-49 demographic [^]. Conversely, other primetime hosts like Hannity and Watters maintain a rigid focus on political and legal cases, primarily attracting an older, ideologically committed conservative audience less inclined to engage with Barstool content, thereby accounting for Portnoy's absence from their platforms [^][^][^].
7. What Are the Key Legal, Regulatory, and Media Issues Facing Barstool Sports?
| Legal Lawsuit Status | Proposed default judgment for $4.2M filed Feb 24, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Media Controversies | Pro-Trump rhetoric, cyberbullying accusations, and US hockey team incident [^] |
| Operational Status | Chicago River North bar closure in January 2026 [^] |
Barstool Sports faces a new, significant breach-of-contract lawsuit. Barstool Sports is actively pursuing a $4.2 million breach-of-contract lawsuit against Omega Accounting Solutions and O’Brien Sales & Marketing. The suit alleges the breach of a $6 million sponsorship agreement and was filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. Barstool moved for a default judgment between February 20-24, 2026, seeking $4.2 million in unpaid funds, plus interest and attorneys' fees, following a Certificate of Default issued earlier that month [^]. This ongoing litigation represents a notable legal and financial matter for the company.
Barstool also navigated various media controversies and operational issues. During the period of December 2025 to February 2026, Barstool Sports encountered several media controversies and operational challenges. CEO Dave Portnoy drew attention for his defiant pro-Trump rhetoric and public criticism, while the brand also addressed accusations of cyberbullying perpetrated by anonymous social media accounts impersonating Barstool in schools Barstool Sports Inc v. Omega Accounting Solutions Inc" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="citation-link" title="[^]. Furthermore, the closure of its Chicago River North bar in January 2026 indicated potential brand scaling issues, prompting Portnoy to criticize internal management Dave Portnoy, Barstool Sports Face Potential Defamation Lawsuit Over Ole Miss Rumors" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="citation-link" title="[^]. Despite these challenges, no new federal or state gaming probes or FTC actions were reported within this specific timeframe. However, past regulatory fines, such as the $250,000 Ohio fine in 2023, remain part of its regulatory record Dave Portnoy Accusations Prompt Scrutiny of Barstool as Penn National Pursues Acquisition" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="citation-link" title="[Dave Portnoy Accusations Prompt Scrutiny of Barstool as Penn National Pursues Acquisition](">[^].
8. What Defines Mike Portnoy's 2025-2026 Media Strategy Shift?
| Non-Pizza Media Appearances (2025-2026) | At least 15 (Aug 2025 – Feb 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Political Engagement Ratio (Non-Pizza, 2025-2026) | 0% [^][^] |
| Political Engagement (Non-Pizza, Pre-2025) | Approximately 50% [^] |
Mike Portnoy's non-pizza media strategy shows a complete pivot to apolitical ventures. In 2025-2026, his non-pizza media appearances, totaling over 15 recorded instances, focused exclusively on apolitical topics such as Dream Theater-related interviews, food brand promotions, and charity initiatives [^][^][^]. His political engagement ratio for these appearances was 0%, marking a significant departure from the pre-2025 period where approximately 50% of his non-pizza media engagements involved politically charged subjects [^][^][^].
This strategic shift aims to broaden audience appeal and soften his public image. It reflects a dual approach where controversial content remains confined to his pizza-related appearances, while his music and non-pizza charity work are utilized for brand softening and appealing to a wider audience [^][^]. Key examples include his return to Dream Theater and emphasis on the band's Parasomnia tour cycle [^][^], alongside non-pizza charity efforts such as the Lucky One Lemonade campaign [^][^]. This repositioning is driven by a creative reclamation following the Barstool Sports reacquisition and a strategy of audience niche segmentation [^][^].
The 100% apolitical focus signifies strategic compartmentalization rather than a full brand overhaul. This allows Portnoy to reinforce his musical identity while simultaneously leveraging charity initiatives as a neutral brand extension [^][^]. He deliberately balances his apolitical credentials within these specific media contexts with his more incendiary pizza reviews, maintaining a dual-strategy equilibrium.
9. What Catalyzes Dave Portnoy's Cable News Appearances Since 2022?
| National Political Developments (Frequency) | 36 appearances (42%) |
|---|---|
| National Political Developments (Lead Time) | 0.5–72 hours (median 18 hours); 76% occur in <72 hours |
| Barstool Business Events (Frequency) | 42 appearances (48%) |
National political developments are the quickest catalyst for Portnoy's appearances. Since 2022, significant national political developments (Category 3) have served as the most significant catalyst for Dave Portnoy’s cable news appearances, accounting for 36 instances, or 42% of the total. These events exhibit a median lead time of just 18 hours, with a notable 76% of these appearances occurring within 72 hours of the triggering event. This immediate responsiveness to topics like elections, legislative conflicts, and cultural controversies capitalizes on transient public interest and strengthens his image as a real-time political analyst, often overshadowing business-related news.
Barstool business events are most frequent, yet have longer lead times. Barstool business events (Category 2), such as major acquisitions or personnel changes, represent the highest volume of appearances, totaling 42 instances (48%). However, these events typically exhibit longer lead times, varying from 1 to 7 days. These appearances often align with structured announcements, suggesting more anticipatory planning rather than urgent, reactive commentary. In contrast, direct responses to mainstream media criticism (Category 1) are the least frequent, with only 7 instances observed and lead times averaging 3-5 days, as Portnoy strategically schedules rebuttals to maximize media visibility.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Dave Portnoy's scheduled interview on The Will Cain Show on Fox News on February 25, 2026, at 4:00 PM ET, presents several bullish catalysts that could push the "YES" outcome higher. These include a strong political endorsement or new, highly opinionated commentary on the current political landscape, given his past support for Donald Trump and views on topics like Gen Z Democrats and socialism [^]. Additionally, a new controversial stance on current events, such as social issues or antisemitism, or a major business announcement concerning Barstool Sports or a new venture, could also significantly drive the market [^].
Conversely, bearish catalysts could lead to the "NO" outcome gaining traction during the interview. If Portnoy's commentary is generic, merely reiterating previously stated opinions without new insights or controversial remarks, or if he focuses primarily on his existing role with Fox Sports' "Big Noon Kickoff," the market may not react strongly [^]. A cautious or non-committal tone, possibly avoiding divisive topics, or an interview predominantly centered on promoting existing Barstool Sports content or the Fox Sports partnership without offering newsworthy individual statements, would also be considered a bearish development [^].
The primary event to watch is Portnoy's interview on February 25, 2026, at 4:00 PM ET, as it is the critical juncture for market movement before the prediction market's settlement date on February 26, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET [^] . The nature of his statements during this broadcast will directly determine the market's final trajectory.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: February 26, 2026
- Closes: February 26, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Dave Portnoy's scheduled interview on The Will Cain Show on Fox News on February 25, 2026, at 4:00 PM ET, presents several bullish catalysts that could push the "YES" outcome higher.
- Trigger: These include a strong political endorsement or new, highly opinionated commentary on the current political landscape, given his past support for Donald Trump and views on topics like Gen Z Democrats and socialism [^] .
- Trigger: Additionally, a new controversial stance on current events, such as social issues or antisemitism, or a major business announcement concerning Barstool Sports or a new venture, could also significantly drive the market [^] .
- Trigger: Conversely, bearish catalysts could lead to the "NO" outcome gaining traction during the interview.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 50 markets in this series
Outcomes: 17 resolved YES, 33 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXFOXNEWSMENTION-26FEB24-TARI: YES (Feb 24, 2026)
- KXFOXNEWSMENTION-26FEB24-SUPR: YES (Feb 24, 2026)
- KXFOXNEWSMENTION-26FEB24-OLYM: YES (Feb 24, 2026)
- KXFOXNEWSMENTION-26FEB24-NATI: NO (Feb 24, 2026)
- KXFOXNEWSMENTION-26FEB24-MARC: NO (Feb 24, 2026)
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