What will Christine Lagarde say on Face the Nation?
1. Executive Verdict
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | 1.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Inflation | 1.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 1.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| China | 1.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Tariff | 1.0% | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Data
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Powell / Warsh | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Tariff | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| China | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Defense | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Recession | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Refund | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Trillion | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Trump | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
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