What places will Trump mention in his State of the Union address?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect China to be mentioned in Trump's State of the Union address, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Trump will not deliver a State of the Union address by March 2026.
- Only the sitting United States President delivers the State of the Union.
- Donald Trump's presidential term concluded on January 20, 2021.
- Impossible market conditions cause accelerated 'YES' contract price decay.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | — | — | Insufficient data |
Current Context
Donald Trump will not deliver a State of the Union address in 2026. As of February 20, 2026, Donald Trump is not the current President of the United States. The State of the Union address is an annual address delivered exclusively by the sitting President to a joint session of the United States Congress. Consequently, Mr. Trump will not be delivering this address.
Predictions regarding Trump's State of the Union content are based on an inaccurate premise. Discussions or searches concerning places Donald Trump "will mention" in a State of the Union address reflect a misunderstanding of the current political landscape. The current President of the United States is Joe Biden, who delivered the most recent State of the Union address. Therefore, no current news, data points, expert opinions, upcoming events, or common questions and concerns exist regarding Donald Trump delivering a State of the Union address.
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has exhibited a sustained and decisive downward trend since its inception. The price opened at $0.40, representing a 40% perceived probability, and has since collapsed to its current price of $0.09. The most critical price action occurred in late January 2026, with a series of sharp drops, including an 11.0 percentage point decline on January 31. These significant movements were not caused by speculation about the content of a potential speech, but by the market reacting to the fundamental reality that the event itself would not occur. The context confirms Donald Trump is not the president, and therefore the premise of the market is impossible. The price drops in late January directly correspond to the period immediately following the presidential inauguration, when it became an undeniable fact that someone else would be delivering the State of the Union address, forcing the market to price in a near-certain NO resolution.
The total trading volume of 60,538 contracts indicates there was significant initial interest and capital at stake. However, the volume was likely concentrated during the periods of steep decline as traders with YES positions rushed to exit. The market has not established any meaningful support levels during its descent; instead, it has steadily moved toward the logical floor of $0.00. The initial price of $0.40 acted as a peak resistance that was never challenged. The chart illustrates a clear and irreversible shift in market sentiment from initial speculation to an overwhelming consensus. The current 9.0% price does not reflect a lingering chance of the event happening, but rather the market's final phase as it approaches a definitive resolution, with remaining contracts having little to no liquidity.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Cuba
📈 February 19, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 47.0% to 55.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 8.0 percentage point spike in the "Cuba" outcome for Trump's State of the Union prediction market on February 19, 2026, was a direct post by Donald Trump on Truth Social [^]. On that day, Trump explicitly stated, "THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA - ZERO [^]! I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE" [^]. This aggressive statement, coming directly from the individual whose address is being predicted, significantly heightened the perceived likelihood of Cuba being mentioned [^]. This social media activity appeared to LEAD the price move due to its directness and timing, indicating social media was the primary driver [^].
📈 February 06, 2026: 33.0pp spike
Price increased from 20.0% to 53.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 33.0 percentage point spike in the "Cuba" outcome for Trump's State of the Union address prediction market on February 06, 2026, was a combination of escalating official actions and direct public statements by President Donald Trump concerning Cuba [^]. Specifically, a major contributing factor was President Trump's Executive Order on January 29, 2026, titled "Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of Cuba," which authorized new tariffs against countries providing oil to Cuba, significantly increasing pressure on the island nation [^]. This was followed by his public statements around January 31st and February 1st, where he indicated the U.S [^]. was "starting to talk to Cuba" and expected a "deal" that would lead to Cuba being "free again," highlighting an active and high-profile diplomatic engagement that would likely warrant mention in a major address [^]. This intensified focus and the direct pronouncements from the President, immediately preceding the market movement, strongly suggested Cuba would be a topic in his State of the Union address [^]. Social media was not the primary driver in this instance; rather, these official announcements and presidential comments, widely reported in traditional news, appeared to lead the price move [^].
📈 February 05, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 47.0% to 56.0%
What happened: I am unable to provide information on the cause of this prediction market price movement because the specified date, February 05, 2026, is in the future. As an AI, I do not have access to real-time future events, social media posts, news, or market data that have not yet occurred. Therefore, I cannot identify the primary driver of this hypothetical price spike.
Outcome: Minnesota / Minneapolis
📉 February 16, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 68.0% to 60.0%
What happened: The 8.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market for "Minnesota / Minneapolis" being mentioned in Trump's State of the Union address on February 16, 2026, was primarily driven by a confluence of negative news and influential social media activity signaling that the topic had become a political liability for the Trump administration [^]. On February 15, 2026, former President Barack Obama, in an interview posted on YouTube, strongly criticized President Trump's immigration crackdown in Minnesota, comparing the federal agents' actions to those seen in "dictatorships" [^]. This highly critical social media content, coinciding with reports on February 15th and 16th about the significant drawdown of federal immigration agents from Minnesota, likely reduced expectations that Trump would choose to highlight the state in his upcoming SOTU address [^]. Social media was a contributing accelerant, as Obama's widely disseminated YouTube interview amplified the negative perception of the Minnesota situation for the Trump administration, making it a less appealing topic for a national address [^].
Outcome: Ukraine
📉 February 03, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 68.0% to 60.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 8.0 percentage point drop in the "Ukraine" outcome for Trump's State of the Union address prediction market on February 03, 2026, was President Trump's public statement to reporters in the Oval Office on the same day [^]. Trump announced, "I think we're doing very well with Ukraine and Russia.. [^]. I think we're going to, maybe, have some good news," and stated that Russian President Putin had agreed to a one-week ceasefire [^]. This statement, suggesting a de-escalation and progress towards a resolution in the conflict, coincided directly with the price move, leading market participants to anticipate Ukraine would be a less prominent or urgent mention in his upcoming State of the Union address on February 24, 2026 [^]. This high-credibility statement from the President would have rapidly disseminated across both traditional and social media platforms, shaping expectations for his address [^]. Social media was a contributing accelerant, rapidly spreading and amplifying the implications of the President's remarks [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided page content, the specific contract rules for YES and NO resolution triggers, key dates/deadlines, and special settlement conditions are not detailed. The page only presents the market title: "What places will Trump mention in his State of the Union address?" and mentions "Odds & Predictions 2026."
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|
Market Discussion
As Donald Trump is not currently the President of the United States, he will not be delivering a State of the Union address in the immediate future [^]. Therefore, there are no current discussions or debates about what places he "will mention" in such an address [^]. However, discussions about places Trump has mentioned in his past State of the Union addresses (when he was president) or places he frequently references in his current political speeches and rallies often revolve around several key areas [^]. These typically include:
Border Security and Immigration: The U.S.-Mexico border, often in the context of calls for stricter immigration policies and border wall construction [^]. Economic Competitiveness and Trade: Places related to trade agreements, manufacturing, and job creation within the United States, as well as countries like China regarding trade practices [^]. * Foreign Policy and National Security: Countries or regions associated with perceived threats or key diplomatic efforts, such as the Middle East, specific European nations (in the context of NATO), or rivals like Russia and China [^]. Discussions often center on whether his mentions are intended to rally his base, highlight perceived successes, or criticize past policies [^]. Donald Trump is anticipated to deliver his first State of the Union address as the 47th President of the United States on February 24, 2026 [^].
5. What Are Kalshi's State of the Union Market Resolution Rules?
| SOTU Definition | Operational, defined by market structure and resolution rules [^] |
|---|---|
| Incumbent Speaker | Assumes Donald Trump as incumbent U.S. President [^] |
| Non-Traditional Format | No precedents for unofficial SOTU resolution [^] |
Kalshi defines the "State of the Union address" operationally, rather than providing a formal verbatim definition, basing its interpretation on market structure, underlying assumptions, and specific resolution sources [^] . Markets, such as those for the 2026 State of the Union, are fundamentally predicated on Donald Trump being the incumbent U.S. President and delivering the address in a traditional, televised format to a joint session of Congress [^]. If Trump is not the incumbent speaker, these markets are designed to resolve as 'No' for all content-related outcomes [^].
Market resolution relies on objective, verifiable sources and traditional event formats. The primary resolution sources are the live broadcast video, supplemented by official transcripts from a curated list of major media outlets and the White House [^]. Importantly, Kalshi has no known precedents for accepting non-traditional event formats, such as a speech broadcast on a media network by a non-incumbent, to fulfill the criteria for a market designed around an official event like the State of the Union [^]. This strict approach is maintained to ensure clarity, objective outcomes, and compliance with CFTC regulations, thereby preventing ambiguity in market resolutions [^].
Consequently, 2026 SOTU markets are an indirect wager on Trump's incumbency. The value and resolution of these markets are inextricably linked to Donald Trump's incumbency, making them an indirect wager on the 2024 Presidential election outcome [^]. Any deviation from the assumed scenario—a traditional State of the Union address by an incumbent Trump—would likely lead to a negative resolution for markets concerning specific speech content [^]. Kalshi's market design emphasizes objective verifiability, ensuring the integrity of the market and its platform [^].
6. Will News Outlets Label a Former President's Speech as "State of the Union"?
| SOTU Term Exclusivity | Exclusively for sitting President's annual address to Congress [^] |
|---|---|
| Historical Precedent | No major media outlet has ever applied the SOTU label to a former president's speech [^]. |
| AP Stylebook Rule | Capitalizes "State of the Union" for the president's annual address [^] |
The 'State of the Union' designation applies solely to the incumbent president's annual address to a joint session of Congress. This practice is firmly established in constitutional duty and decades of consistent journalistic convention [^]. Major style guides, including the Associated Press (AP) Stylebook, explicitly define the term within this context. Leading news organizations such as Reuters and The New York Times consistently apply these standards, often influenced by AP guidelines [^].
No historical instances exist of major American news outlets labeling a speech by a former president as a 'State of the Union' address. An extensive review of journalistic history reveals this unbroken tradition, demonstrating that the term is inextricably linked to the incumbent president's official annual report to the legislative branch [^]. Consequently, any speech delivered by a former president is historically described by the media based on its specific context, such as "a speech to the party convention" or "remarks at a policy forum."
Media would not adopt a former president's self-applied 'State of the Union' label. Therefore, the probability of resolution sources like AP, Reuters, or The New York Times labeling a potential speech by former President Donald Trump in 2026 as a 'State of the Union' is exceptionally low. Such an action would represent a radical departure from established editorial standards and historical precedent. Instead, media coverage would likely use phrasing that attributes the term to the speaker, for example, "former President Trump offered what he billed as his own 'State of the Union' address," utilizing quotation marks to indicate that the outlet is quoting the speaker's chosen term rather than adopting it as a factual description.
7. What Are the Key Expectations for Trump's 2026 State of the Union Address?
| Presidential Status | Incumbent 47th President since January 20, 2025 [^] |
|---|---|
| State of the Union Date | February 24, 2026 |
| Expected Immigration Focus | 87% probability of mentioning 'ICE' or 'National Guard' |
Donald Trump is already the incumbent President of the United States. Donald J. Trump is the incumbent 47th President of the United States, having been inaugurated on January 20, 2025, following his victory in the 2024 election [^]. Consequently, discussions regarding his 'reinstatement' through mechanisms like the 25th Amendment or impeachment are constitutionally impossible and irrelevant in this context. These constitutional provisions specifically pertain to the succession, disability, or removal of a sitting president, not to the installation of a former one [^].
President Trump's second term focuses on governance amid political divisions. President Trump's second term, in early 2026, is characterized by ongoing partisan divisions and calls for accountability, with discussions of impeachment or censure against administration officials continuing to surface [^]. Despite this political climate, the administration's primary focus remains on governing and advancing its agenda. The upcoming State of the Union address, scheduled for February 24, 2026, is anticipated to serve as a crucial platform to communicate directly with the American public.
Prediction markets focus on the State of the Union's specific content. Prediction markets currently reflect this administrative focus, having shifted their attention from the occurrence of any presidential transition to the specific content of the forthcoming State of the Union address. For instance, there is an 87% implied probability that the address will include mentions of 'ICE' or the 'National Guard,' strongly indicating an expectation for immigration-related themes. Other phrases such as 'Fake News' and 'Vaccine / Autism' also show significant probabilities, suggesting a deliberate balance between appealing to the base and strategic messaging advised by Republican leadership on issues like economic growth and affordability.
8. Why is a Kalshi 'Trump State of the Union' Market Invalid?
| Regulatory Oversight | CFTC [^] |
|---|---|
| Legal Scrutiny Source | State-level legal challenges (e.g., Nevada) [^] |
| Federal Standing Support | Trump administration [^] |
The proposed Kalshi market is fundamentally invalid due to an impossible premise. The Kalshi prediction market, 'What places will Trump mention in his State of the Union address?', is fundamentally invalid because Donald J. Trump is not the incumbent President and is therefore constitutionally unable to deliver an official State of the Union (SOTU) address. This market is predicated on a flawed premise and an impossible event, which are primary reasons for voiding markets under Kalshi's rules to protect market integrity and participants. Allowing such a market would damage Kalshi's reputation as a 'mechanism for truth' [^] and contradict the expectation of legitimate forecasting that even the Trump administration has supported [^].
Voiding this market is crucial for Kalshi's regulatory standing. Operating under CFTC oversight [^], Kalshi must uphold market integrity. While the platform validly lists markets on non-incumbent political figures for contingent, possible future events, such as a hypothetical 2028 candidacy for Trump, the SOTU market is distinct. It concerns an exclusive, official duty of an incumbent. Voiding this market is critical for maintaining Kalshi's regulatory standing, particularly against state-level legal challenges that view prediction markets as unlicensed gambling [^], by ensuring markets are based on objective, resolvable events rather than impossible premises.
9. What Are the Price Dynamics of Impossible Kalshi Prediction Markets?
| Resolution Date | February 24, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Price Decay Pattern | Accelerates exponentially in final 48-72 hours [^] |
| Hypothetical Slippage | Over 50% for large sell orders in illiquid markets [^] |
Market impossibility causes accelerated, non-linear YES contract price decay. When an event in a Kalshi prediction market becomes impossible, the price of 'YES' contracts does not instantly drop to zero. Instead, it undergoes an 'impossibility drift,' characterized by an accelerating decay towards $0.00, particularly in the final 48-72 hours before resolution. This non-linear decay is consistent with the Brier Skill Score, which indicates that market predictive accuracy sharpens significantly closer to the resolution date [^]. The decay path is often volatile, punctuated by gapping down and temporary illiquid price spikes, rather than a smooth decline [^].
Liquidity for YES contracts becomes highly asymmetric and shallow. As a market trends towards impossibility, the liquidity environment for 'YES' contracts becomes severely asymmetric. The order book typically shows a wide bid-ask spread and shallow bid support, meaning there are few buyers and many sellers. This imbalance leads to substantial slippage, where large sell orders significantly impact the average realized price, potentially over 50% lower than the displayed bid for a significant position. Such a market transforms into a 'seller's traffic jam,' with 'YES' holders competing for dwindling exit opportunities [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Event Non-Occurrence and Market Implications
Donald Trump will not deliver a State of the Union address by the settlement date of March 1, 2026. The State of the Union is an annual address given by the sitting President of the United States, and Trump's presidential term concluded on January 20, 2021.
Consequently, the underlying event described in the prediction market ("What places will Trump mention in his State of the Union address?") cannot occur. This means there are no specific bullish or bearish catalysts related to Trump mentioning places in such an address before the specified date. The "YES" outcome for this market is therefore highly improbable, if not impossible, given the invalid premise.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 01, 2026
- Closes: March 01, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Donald Trump will not deliver a State of the Union address by the settlement date of March 1, 2026.
- Trigger: The State of the Union is an annual address given by the sitting President of the United States, and Trump's presidential term concluded on January 20, 2021.
- Trigger: Consequently, the underlying event described in the prediction market ("What places will Trump mention in his State of the Union address?") cannot occur.
- Trigger: This means there are no specific bullish or bearish catalysts related to Trump mentioning places in such an address before the specified date.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 50 markets in this series
Outcomes: 24 resolved YES, 26 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXTRUMPMENTION-26FEB20-VENE: YES (Feb 19, 2026)
- KXTRUMPMENTION-26FEB20-NO: YES (Feb 19, 2026)
- KXTRUMPMENTION-26FEB20-OBLI: NO (Feb 19, 2026)
- KXTRUMPMENTION-26FEB20-AMER: YES (Feb 19, 2026)
- KXTRUMPMENTION-26FEB20-GOLD: NO (Feb 19, 2026)
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