What places will Trump mention in his State of the Union address?
1. Executive Verdict
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | 77% | — | Insufficient data |
| Palestine | 13% | — | Insufficient data |
| Greenland | 72% | — | Insufficient data |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | 71% | — | Insufficient data |
| Cuba | 55% | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Data
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | $0.94 | $0.08 | 94% |
| Iran | $0.94 | $0.10 | 94% |
| Venezuela | $0.92 | $0.09 | 92% |
| Israel | $0.79 | $0.23 | 79% |
| Mexico | $0.78 | $0.25 | 78% |
| Russia | $0.77 | $0.25 | 77% |
| Ukraine | $0.77 | $0.25 | 77% |
| Greenland | $0.72 | $0.30 | 72% |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | $0.71 | $0.30 | 71% |
| New York | $0.71 | $0.30 | 71% |
| Gaza | $0.70 | $0.34 | 70% |
| Canada | $0.69 | $0.34 | 69% |
| Gulf of America | $0.68 | $0.33 | 68% |
| California | $0.67 | $0.35 | 67% |
| India | $0.60 | $0.43 | 60% |
| Japan | $0.60 | $0.42 | 60% |
| Congo | $0.59 | $0.43 | 59% |
| Korea | $0.57 | $0.46 | 57% |
| Alaska | $0.56 | $0.46 | 56% |
| Somalia | $0.56 | $0.47 | 56% |
| Cuba | $0.55 | $0.47 | 55% |
| Chicago | $0.54 | $0.49 | 54% |
| Argentina | $0.44 | $0.58 | 44% |
| Memphis | $0.42 | $0.60 | 42% |
| Saudi Arabia | $0.41 | $0.61 | 41% |
| Mount McKinley | $0.37 | $0.65 | 37% |
| Arizona | $0.35 | $0.66 | 35% |
| Colombia | $0.33 | $0.69 | 33% |
| Taiwan | $0.33 | $0.70 | 33% |
| El Salvador | $0.28 | $0.74 | 28% |
| Portland | $0.24 | $0.78 | 24% |
| Palestine | $0.13 | $0.89 | 13% |
| Iceland | $0.12 | $0.90 | 12% |
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