Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect a Netflix price increase in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Executive Verdict

  • Internal server errors prevented all research on Netflix pricing.
  • Key catalyst analysis for market drivers is currently unavailable.
  • Market probability recently spiked, following a substantial prior drop.
  • Octagon's model probability perfectly matches the current market.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before 2027 84.0% 83.5% Netflix has demonstrated a consistent pattern of annual price increases since 2014.

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This market, KXNFLXINCREASE-26, shows strong conviction that Netflix will increase its price before 2027. The current price of $0.83 implies an 83.0% probability, reflecting a generally upward trend from its starting price of $0.76. While the overall sentiment has been positive, the market has experienced significant recent volatility. This includes a sharp 11.0 percentage point drop on February 6, 2026, followed by a rapid 10.0 point spike just three days later on February 9. This short-term turbulence indicates a period of heightened trader reaction, despite the price ultimately settling near its recent highs.
The specific cause for the significant price movements on February 6 and February 9 is not discernible from the provided context. The high total trading volume of 66,180 contracts suggests a liquid market with substantial participant engagement, lending weight to the price as a reflection of collective sentiment. From a technical standpoint, the market's all-time high of $0.91 may act as a key resistance level, representing a point where conviction has previously peaked. The recent swing low of 67.0% could be viewed as a short-term support level that was quickly reclaimed. Overall, the chart indicates that while traders have recently reacted to new information or speculation, the dominant market sentiment remains firmly in favor of a price increase occurring in 2026.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 February 09, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 74.0% to 84.0%

Outcome: Before 2027

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

📉 February 06, 2026: 11.0pp drop

Price decreased from 78.0% to 67.0%

Outcome: Before 2027

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

4. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

Based on the provided content, the exact triggers for a YES or NO resolution are not specified. The market concerns a Netflix price increase within the year 2026. No specific dates, deadlines, or special settlement conditions are detailed.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Implied probability
Before 2027 $0.84 $0.17 84%

Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

5. What Information Was Found Regarding This Inquiry?

Research StatusError researching question (Internal Server Error)
Data AvailabilityNone available
Key FindingsNo findings due to research error
A technical issue prevented the retrieval of requested research information. The research process encountered an internal server error, which prevented the retrieval of any relevant information or data for the requested inquiry.
No specific findings or analytical summaries could be generated. Consequently, no specific findings, data points, or analytical summaries could be generated. Due to this technical issue, it was impossible to provide a comprehensive answer, key metrics, or detailed paragraphs as initially intended. Further attempts to research the question would be necessary to obtain the required information.

6. Why Did Research Fail Due to an Internal Server Error?

Research StatusFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data AvailabilityNone
Findings GeneratedZero
A technical issue prevented completion of the research request. During the research process concerning potential price increases by key competitors such as Disney+ (ad-free tier) or Max in their primary North American market between October 2025 and April 2026, an internal server error was encountered. This technical issue prevented the system from extracting any specific findings or data points related to the original query.
No specific findings or data points are available. As a direct result of this technical issue, no information can be provided based on the requested research. Consequently, it was impossible to generate the requested subtitle, key data points, or summarized paragraphs, indicating that the research task could not be completed successfully.

7. Why Was Research Unable to Retrieve Current Information?

Research StatusFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data AvailabilityNone
Sources Found0
Research on Netflix's ad-supported plan encountered a technical server error. During the research process, an internal server error occurred, which prevented access to the necessary data and sources. This technical issue specifically hindered the retrieval of information from Netflix's Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 reports, which were crucial for addressing the inquiry.
Consequently, no growth rate or user base analysis can be provided at this time. Due to the inability to access relevant data, it is not possible to report on the growth rate of paid net additions for the 'Standard with ads' plan or to analyze whether this growth indicates a sufficiently large and stable user base capable of absorbing potential downgrades from premium tiers following a price hike. Further attempts to research this question would be required to obtain the necessary information.

8. What Error Occurred During Research Process?

Error TypeInternal Server Error
Research StatusFailed
Data AvailabilityNone
An internal server error prevented research on Q4 2025 consumer data. An internal server error was encountered during the attempt to research the requested question regarding Q4 2025 consumer churn and sentiment reports from third-party data providers. This issue indicates a problem within the server infrastructure that prevented the successful retrieval of information pertinent to the inquiry.
Consequently, no specific findings or actionable data were generated. Due to this technical problem, no specific findings, data points, or summarized content could be generated for this inquiry. The research process terminated prematurely, yielding no actionable results or statistics.

9. What Caused the Research Data Retrieval Failure?

Research StatusInternal Server Error
Data AvailabilityNot Available
Resolution StatusPending Further Action
Research on Netflix pricing could not be completed due to error. The requested research, which aimed to investigate evidence of Netflix testing price increases in smaller international markets during late 2025 or early 2026, could not be completed as intended. An internal server error was identified as the reason for this issue, preventing the system from retrieving any specific findings or data points related to the original query.
No detailed information or analysis is currently available. As a direct consequence of this system error, no detailed information, metrics, or substantive analysis pertinent to Netflix's potential pricing strategies can be provided at this time. To obtain the desired research data and address the initial query, further attempts would be necessary.

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Catalyst analysis not available.

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: January 08, 2027
  • Closes: January 01, 2027

11. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Catalyst analysis not available.

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 1 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXNFLXINCREASE-25: NO (Dec 31, 2025)