Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect the Nasdaq-100 close price to be 18,999.99 or below at the end of 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- AI innovation and widespread adoption drive a capital expenditure supercycle.
- Next-generation AI models like GPT-5 expected to launch early-mid 2026.
- Global AI spending projected to exceed $2 trillion, fueling growth.
- Federal Reserve anticipates cutting interest rates by 0.75 points in 2026.
- Robust corporate earnings growth expected, particularly from major tech firms.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18,999.99 or below | 18.0% | 19.9% | A deep recession or major geopolitical event could significantly depress tech valuations. |
| 25,500 to 25,999.99 | 5.0% | 4.1% | Steady corporate earnings and stable interest rates could drive solid market expansion. |
| 33,000.01 or above | 7.0% | 7.6% | Rapid innovation, strong economic expansion, and favorable monetary policy could fuel significant gains. |
| 22,500 to 22,999.99 | 4.0% | 3.5% | Modest economic growth with persistent inflation might temper tech stock performance. |
| 26,000 to 26,499.99 | 5.0% | 4.7% | Strong tech sector performance and improved investor sentiment could push the index higher. |
Current Context
Volatility marks recent Nasdaq-100 activity amidst AI disruption fears. Discussions surrounding the Nasdaq-100’s close price at the end of 2026 are heavily influenced by AI developments, interest rate policies, and corporate earnings [^]. Recent market activity reflects volatility as investors shift between high-growth technology and more defensive sectors. A notable weakness is evident due to divestment from "AI losers," with companies like IBM reportedly facing fears of AI disruption [^]. Technical analysis suggests a "distribution" phase rather than sustained "dip buying frenzy," indicating potential for a breakdown below the short-term support area of 24,600-24,650 [^]. As of February 24, 2026, the Nasdaq-100 index closed at 24709 [^]. Furthermore, new U.S. tariff threats have contributed to Nasdaq Composite futures sliding to a five-week low [^].
Experts offer varied Nasdaq-100 predictions, anticipating 7-12% gains. Forecasts for the Nasdaq-100's performance by the end of 2026 vary, with Traders Union projecting the index between $28,277.47 and $29,431.65 [^], and Long Forecast Agency anticipating a bullish close of 35,132 [^]. Wallet Investor forecasts a close of 29,995 [^], while Gov Capital projects prices surpassing 30,000 [^]. Prediction market Kalshi indicates an 87% probability of the index reaching 25,600 or above, and a 36% chance of hitting 30,000 or above [^]. Strategists generally forecast a 7-12% gain for the Nasdaq-100 in 2026 [^]. Direct AI spending is projected to reach $490 billion in 2026 alone [^]. Several financial institutions have shared outlooks: Deutsche Bank projects an aggressive advance for the S&P 500 to 8,000, which would imply significant upside for the Nasdaq-100 [^]. JPMorgan eyes the S&P 500 at 7,500, driven by 13-15% EPS from the AI supercycle [^]. Goldman Sachs anticipates sustained Nasdaq-100 momentum into late 2026, supported by robust global growth [^]. In contrast, Bank of America offers a more modest forecast of approximately 4% gains for the Nasdaq-100 in 2026 [^]. FOREX.com analysts suggest a possible correction for the Nasdaq-100 before new highs, emphasizing the market's current narrative of punishing companies perceived as "AI losers" [^]. IBM experts maintain that AI will remain a dominant megatrend [^]. Jesse Oberoi from Mitrade highlights a crucial shift in 2026 from "AI excitement" to demanding "AI ROI" (Return on Investment) [^]. Nasdaq.com predictions for 2026 suggest the AI bubble won't burst, but rather a transition from "hype to harvest," with single-digit S&P 500 gains and volatility due to mid-term elections [^]. Expectations include further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of 2026, following a 75 basis point cut in 2025 [^].
Future market direction hinges on earnings, Fed actions, and AI monetization. Upcoming events influencing the Nasdaq-100's 2026 outlook include the Q1 earnings season, identified as a "potential hotspot for optimism to be challenged" as companies reset full-year guidance [^]. Key earnings dates for Broadcom (AVGO), a stock strongly correlated with the Nasdaq among AI-related companies, are Q4 2025 (early March 2026), Q1 2026 (early June 2026), Q2 2026 (early September 2026), and Q3 2026 (early December 2026) [^]. Federal Reserve actions, specifically anticipated further interest rate cuts in the second half of 2026, could provide a lift to growth stocks [^]. The 2026 mid-term elections and the ability for President Trump to name a new Fed chair by May 2026 are expected to introduce market volatility and influence future interest rate policies [^]. Common concerns revolve around whether the market will continue to reward companies simply for AI exposure or increasingly demand tangible financial returns (AI ROI) [^]. While many experts don't foresee a burst, there is concern about the "AI bubble" shifting from hype to a focus on demonstrable earnings [^]. The sensitivity of tech valuations to interest rates and potential inflation remains a concern, along with discussions about the concentration risk within the Nasdaq-100, which is heavily weighted towards a few mega-cap tech stocks [^]. Many anticipate a potential market correction driven by earnings disappointments and guidance revisions before the longer-term uptrend resumes [^]. The impact of U.S. tariff policies and political influence on the Federal Reserve's independence are also points of concern [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market, which reflects the probability of the Nasdaq-100 closing at or below 18,999.99 by year-end 2026, has demonstrated a long-term sideways trend. The price has primarily traded in a range between 8% and 65%, with the current price of 19% near the lower end of this historical band. The most notable feature of the chart is a period of extreme, short-lived volatility in late January and early February 2026. This period saw the probability swing dramatically before settling back into its more established range. The price of 19% acts as a near-term pivot point, while the 8% level has served as a historical support, and the 65% mark has functioned as a significant resistance ceiling.
The significant price movements are directly tied to specific market events and data anomalies. The most dramatic event was a 50.0 percentage point spike to 65% on January 27, followed by an immediate 52.0 percentage point drop back to 13% on January 28. Context indicates this was an anomaly without a clear news driver, suggesting it may have been caused by a large, misplaced trade or a data error rather than a shift in broad market conviction, especially as it was immediately reversed. In contrast, the February movements were more indicative of genuine market reactions. An 8.0 percentage point spike on February 5 reflected increased bearishness due to a tech stock sell-off, while the subsequent 10.0 percentage point drop on February 8 suggests that sentiment quickly moderated as the market digested a broader shift away from the sector.
Overall, the chart suggests that market participants assign a relatively low but persistent probability (currently 19%) to a significant Nasdaq-100 downturn by the end of 2026. The substantial total volume of over 296,000 contracts indicates significant interest in this long-term outcome. However, the sideways trend, coupled with the brief but extreme volatility spike, implies a lack of strong directional consensus. While traders are clearly pricing in downside risks associated with AI disruption and economic policy, the current low probability suggests the prevailing sentiment is that a close below the 19,000 level remains an unlikely, or tail-risk, event.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 February 08, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 27.0% to 17.0%
Outcome: 18,999.99 or below
What happened: The 10 percentage point drop in the "Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026 [^]? 18,999.99 or below" prediction market on February 8, 2026, was primarily driven by a broader market shift away from the tech sector and growing economic concerns [^]. This move was preceded by a significant semiconductor selloff around February 4-5, 2026, following disappointing earnings guidance from major industry players and increasing worries about AI's potential negative impact on software company margins [^]. Compounding this negative sentiment were weaker-than-expected labor market data, including rising jobless claims and surging layoffs, alongside upward pressure from U.S [^]. Treasury yields [^]. While a technical analysis video on YouTube coincided with the date, reflecting existing bearish sentiment, there is no evidence of specific, high-impact social media activity from influential figures that directly caused this substantial prediction market movement [^]. Social media was mostly noise [^].
📈 February 05, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 15.0% to 23.0%
Outcome: 18,999.99 or below
What happened: The primary driver of the 8.0 percentage point spike in the "Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026 [^]? - 18,999.99 or below" prediction market on February 5, 2026, was a significant sell-off in technology stocks, fueled by weaker-than-expected labor market data and concerns over the stretched valuations of AI-centric technology companies [^]. On that day, Nasdaq 100 futures were down more than 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 1.6% due to a broad technology sector sell-off [^]. This market downturn was intensified by a rise in jobless claims and a surge in January layoffs, alongside widespread losses in major tech companies like Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Tesla [^]. There is no evidence from the search results to suggest that social media activity from key figures or viral narratives were the primary drivers; instead, the price movement coincided with traditional news and economic announcements detailing a broad market decline [^]. Social media was likely (d) irrelevant to this particular price movement, given the strong and clearly reported macroeconomic and market structure factors [^].
📉 January 28, 2026: 52.0pp drop
Price decreased from 65.0% to 13.0%
Outcome: 18,999.99 or below
What happened: I cannot provide information about the cause of a prediction market price movement on January 28, 2026, as this date is in the future relative to the current date. My capabilities are limited to accessing and processing information up to my last training update and real-time data up to the present moment, not future events. Therefore, I cannot identify social media activity, news, or market factors that have not yet occurred.
📈 January 27, 2026: 50.0pp spike
Price increased from 15.0% to 65.0%
Outcome: 18,999.99 or below
What happened: Research into the Nasdaq-100 prediction market price movement on January 27, 2026, for the "18,999.99 or below" outcome, which saw a 50.0 percentage point spike, did not reveal a clear primary driver from social media or traditional news [^]. On January 27, 2026, the Nasdaq Composite actually rose by 0.4% to 23,601.36, driven by strong performance in AI-related stocks, and economic indicators like core capital goods orders and consumer sentiment were positive [^]. Furthermore, earlier concerns about trade tariffs from a January 19 announcement by former President Trump were reportedly easing by January 27, which would typically reduce bearish sentiment [^]. There were no prominent social media posts from influential figures or viral narratives that aligned with such a significant bearish prediction market shift on that day [^]. Therefore, social media activity appears to have been mostly noise or irrelevant to this specific price spike [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market, titled "Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?", is based on the Nasdaq-100's closing price. The key resolution date is December 31, 2026, at 4:00 PM EST. However, the provided content does not specify the exact condition for a YES or NO resolution (e.g., a target price or range), nor does it list any special settlement conditions.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18,999.99 or below | $0.18 | $0.83 | 18% |
| 33,000.01 or above | $0.07 | $0.94 | 7% |
| 25,500 to 25,999.99 | $0.05 | $0.97 | 5% |
| 26,000 to 26,499.99 | $0.05 | $0.97 | 5% |
| 27,000 to 27,499.99 | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| 27,500 to 27,999.99 | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| 28,000 to 28,499.99 | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| 28,500 to 28,999.99 | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| 29,000 to 29,499.99 | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| 30,000 to 30,499.99 | $0.05 | $0.97 | 5% |
| 22,000 to 22,499.99 | $0.04 | $0.99 | 4% |
| 22,500 to 22,999.99 | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| 25,000 to 25,499.99 | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| 20,000 to 20,499.99 | $0.03 | $0.99 | 3% |
| 21,000 to 21,499.99 | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| 29,500 to 29,999.99 | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| 30,500 to 30,999.99 | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| 31,000 to 31,499.99 | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| 31,500 to 31,999.99 | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| 19,000 to 19,499.99 | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| 19,500 to 19,999.99 | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| 20,500 to 20,999.99 | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| 21,500 to 21,999.99 | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| 23,000 to 23,499.99 | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| 23,500 to 23,999.99 | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| 24,000 to 24,499.99 | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| 24,500 to 24,999.99 | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| 26,500 to 26,999.99 | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| 32,000 to 32,499.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 32,500 to 33,000 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Discussions and debates surrounding the Nasdaq-100's closing price at the end of 2026 are largely optimistic, driven by the anticipated continued growth in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector and expectations of supportive monetary policies, such as interest rate cuts [^]. Many analysts and prediction markets forecast significant gains, with some projecting the index to reach well above 25,000, and even as high as 35,000 points, citing strong earnings in tech and semiconductor companies and a positive economic outlook [^]. Conversely, a considerable portion of the debate centers on concerns about the Nasdaq-100's currently elevated valuations, with some drawing parallels to past speculative bubbles like the Dot Com era, and predicting a potential earnings-led correction of 5-20% [^]. Arguments for caution also highlight the possibility of a market shift demanding demonstrable returns on AI investments rather than just excitement, as well as historical tendencies for stock market volatility during midterm election years [^].
5. What Was the Outcome of the Research Request?
| Research Status | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Internal Server Error |
| Data Availability | None |
Research efforts for the query encountered an internal server error. The initial attempt to gather information regarding the projected translation of aggregate 2026 capital expenditures from the top 7 Nasdaq-100 components into year-over-year revenue growth, relative to the 2024-2025 period, encountered an internal server error.
No specific data or findings were retrievable. This technical impediment prevented the extraction of any specific data, relevant metrics, or detailed explanations pertinent to the query. As a direct result, it is currently impossible to provide the requested summary and associated data points.
6. Why Was Research Unsuccessful for This Specific Query?
| Research Status | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Internal Server Error |
| Data Availability | None |
The research aimed to forecast the trajectory of U.S. Core Services CPI ex-Housing ('Supercore inflation') for the first three quarters of 2026 and assess its alignment with Federal Reserve dot plot projections. During this process, an internal server error was encountered, which critically prevented the successful retrieval of any pertinent information relevant to the requested question.
Consequently, no relevant data or analyses could be provided concerning Supercore inflation. This technical issue rendered it impossible to extract specific findings, key data points, or detailed analyses. The original intent was to evaluate potential market implications, specifically how a sustained reading above 3.5% could challenge market-priced rate cut expectations and potentially trigger a valuation reset. However, due to the complete failure of data retrieval, the research request could not be completed, and this analysis remains unaddressed.
7. Why Was Research Data Unavailable for This Request?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Information Source | Retrieval Error |
The research query could not be processed due to an internal server error. This issue prevented the system from accessing and compiling the requested information, resulting in a complete absence of data for this section.
No specific findings or data points are available for this analysis. Consequently, no specific findings, data points, or analytical summaries could be generated at this time, as there is no research material to present or cite.
8. Why Was Research Data Unavailable for This Query?
| Research Outcome | Internal Server Error |
|---|---|
| Data Retrieved | None |
| Findings Status | Unavailable |
An internal server error prevented research data retrieval. The system encountered an 'Internal Server Error' while attempting to retrieve information for the specified research question. This technical issue directly prevented the extraction of any data or key findings from the targeted sources.
Consequently, no specific findings or supporting metrics are available. As a direct result of the encountered error, no specific metrics, contextual details, or supporting evidence could be generated or presented within this research section.
9. What Were the Key Findings from the Research Attempt?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Extraction | Not Applicable |
| Information Available | None |
The research query encountered a critical technical error, preventing any data retrieval. The analysis, which aimed to assess net institutional positioning in Nasdaq-100 (NDX) options expiring in December 2026 by examining the put-to-call ratio at specific strike prices, could not proceed. An 'Internal Server Error' was encountered during the research attempt, which completely hindered the extraction of any data or findings.
No information could be extracted for this analysis due to this technical issue. Consequently, it was impossible to provide a summary of key findings, specific data points, or a detailed analysis of the put-to-call ratio for the specified NDX options. The inability to retrieve content means no insights could be generated regarding institutional hedging against a potential year-end decline.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts for Nasdaq-100
The Nasdaq-100 prediction market for year-end 2026 is poised to benefit from several key bullish catalysts [^] . Continued AI innovation and widespread adoption are expected to drive a "supercycle" of record capital expenditure and rapid earnings growth across diverse sectors, with next-generation models like GPT-5 potentially launching in Q1-Q3 2026 and global AI spending projected to exceed $2 trillion [^]. Further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, anticipated to total 0.75 percentage points in 2026, alongside robust corporate earnings growth, particularly from major tech firms like Alphabet, are also expected to provide significant market tailwinds [^]. Additionally, an accelerating US economy, boosted by reduced tariff impacts and new tax cuts, combined with a broadening bull market beyond tech, could further propel the index [^].
Conversely, several bearish catalysts could push the market lower [^] . Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target could force a policy reversal or prolonged high rates, leading to market uncertainty [^]. Concerns about a "mature bull market" and high valuations suggest a potential correction, possibly triggered by earnings disappointments as AI expectations meet delivery realities [^]. Geopolitical tensions, including potential new tariffs and intensifying trade wars, pose significant risks, especially for the Nasdaq-100 [^]. AI-related risks are also prominent, encompassing a potential "white collar recession" due to advanced AI capabilities, major AI liability lawsuits leading to higher insurance premiums, and the enforcement of stringent regulations like the EU AI Act [^]. The strain on power grids from increasing AI data center demand and the historically higher volatility during US midterm election years (November 2026) also present downside risks [^]. Key events like Nvidia GTC, Google I/O, and AWS re:Invent are specific dates to watch throughout 2026 for developments that could influence these catalysts [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: December 31, 2026
- Expiration: January 08, 2027
- Closes: December 31, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The Nasdaq-100 prediction market for year-end 2026 is poised to benefit from several key bullish catalysts [^] .
- Trigger: Continued AI innovation and widespread adoption are expected to drive a "supercycle" of record capital expenditure and rapid earnings growth across diverse sectors, with next-generation models like GPT-5 potentially launching in Q1-Q3 2026 and global AI spending projected to exceed $2 trillion [^] .
- Trigger: Further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, anticipated to total 0.75 percentage points in 2026, alongside robust corporate earnings growth, particularly from major tech firms like Alphabet, are also expected to provide significant market tailwinds [^] .
- Trigger: Additionally, an accelerating US economy, boosted by reduced tariff impacts and new tax cuts, combined with a broadening bull market beyond tech, could further propel the index [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 50 markets in this series
Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 47 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXNASDAQ100Y-26JAN01H1000-T30499.99: NO (Dec 31, 2025)
- KXNASDAQ100Y-26JAN01H1000-B30250: NO (Dec 31, 2025)
- KXNASDAQ100Y-26JAN01H1000-B29750: NO (Dec 31, 2025)
- KXNASDAQ100Y-26JAN01H1000-B29250: NO (Dec 31, 2025)
- KXNASDAQ100Y-26JAN01H1000-B28750: NO (Dec 31, 2025)
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