Who will perform the next James Bond theme?
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully lower odds than the market for Olivia Dean to perform the next James Bond theme, with the model at 29.3% compared to the market's 44.0%.
1. Executive Verdict
- Eon principals carefully select James Bond theme song artists.
- Raye and Olivia Dean lead Bond theme betting markets.
- Denis Villeneuve is officially announced as Bond 26 director.
- Theme song artists are consistently announced during post-production.
- Several prominent artists had Bond theme song demos rejected.
- The market observed a 9.0 percentage point drop on March 25, 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dua Lipa | 17.0% | 7.3% | The provided background research discusses several leading candidates and producer interactions for the next Bond theme song, including Lisa, Doja Cat, Raye, Olivia Dean, and Billie Eilish, but makes no mention of Dua Lipa, strongly suggesting her candidacy is not supported by this evidence despite the market's 8.1% debiased price. |
| Olivia Dean | 44.0% | 29.3% | The market's inclusion of Olivia Dean as a leading candidate is based solely on speculative betting markets, and there is a notable absence of documented interaction between her and the Bond producers, contrasting with other listed artists who performed a tribute for the producers. |
| Lana Del Rey | 26.0% | 14.5% | The provided background research, which discusses leading candidates for the next James Bond theme and producer interactions, does not mention Lana Del Rey, thus offering no specific evidence to shift her 14.5% market probability. |
| Oasis | 14.0% | 4.0% | The background research extensively details other leading candidates like Raye, Olivia Dean, Lisa, and Doja Cat, citing their interactions with producers and betting market positions, but Oasis is not mentioned at all, strongly suggesting they are not a current frontrunner for the theme. |
| The Weeknd | 7.0% | 2.7% | The provided research offers no evidence or mention of The Weeknd as a candidate for the next Bond theme, listing other artists as frontrunners, yet the market maintains a low probability which could be attributed to his general popularity and suitability for a high-profile theme song. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
The price action for this market has been characterized by a sideways trend, with the probability fluctuating within a relatively narrow range between 16.0% and 25.0%. The market currently sits at 17.0%, close to its starting price of 19.0%, indicating a lack of sustained directional momentum over its history. The most significant event was a sharp price drop of 9.0 percentage points on March 25, 2026, when the perceived probability fell from a high of 25.0% down to 16.0%.
The provided context does not offer a specific catalyst for the significant drop on March 25, 2026. The total trading volume of 240 contracts is low, which suggests that price movements may be influenced by a small number of participants and reflect a lack of strong market conviction. This price action has established a clear resistance level at the 25.0% peak and a support level around the 16.0% low. Overall market sentiment appears skeptical and uncertain. The consistently low probability, currently at 17.0%, suggests traders do not view this as a likely outcome based on available information and are waiting for a more definitive catalyst to emerge.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 March 25, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 25.0% to 16.0%
Outcome: Dua Lipa
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if Olivia Dean performs the next James Bond film theme, otherwise it resolves to NO. The market opened on November 26, 2025, and will close upon the event's occurrence or by January 1, 2035, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. Trading is prohibited for individuals employed by the listed source agencies or those holding material, non-public information related to the contract.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Dean | $0.39 | $0.62 | 44% |
| Lana Del Rey | $0.25 | $0.82 | 26% |
| Dua Lipa | $0.24 | $0.82 | 17% |
| Oasis | $0.20 | $0.86 | 14% |
| Ed Sheeran | $0.05 | $1.00 | 8% |
| Chappell Roan | $0.07 | $0.96 | 7% |
| Harry Styles | $0.08 | $1.00 | 7% |
| Sabrina Carpenter | $0.07 | $1.00 | 7% |
| The Weeknd | $0.08 | $1.00 | 7% |
| Ariana Grande | $0.06 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Beyonce | $0.06 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Coldplay | $0.06 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Elton John | $0.05 | $1.00 | 6% |
| U2 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Lewis Capaldi | $0.05 | $1.00 | 5% |
| SZA | $0.07 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Miley Cyrus | $0.09 | $0.96 | 4% |
| Lorde | $0.08 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Lady Gaga | $0.08 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Sam Fender | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Taylor Swift | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
The main viewpoint among traders is that the artist Raye should be added as an option to the market, with multiple users suggesting her as a strong contender. There are no explicit arguments presented for or against the currently listed artists like Olivia Dean, Lana Del Rey, or Dua Lipa performing the theme. A notable insight is the strong consensus that Raye is a significant candidate missing from the available choices.
5. Who Are Leading Candidates for Next Bond Theme & Producer Interactions?
| Youngest Bond Theme Artist | Billie Eilish (for 'No Time to Die') [^] |
|---|---|
| Artists Honored Producers at Oscars | Lisa, Doja Cat, Raye (Oscars 2025 tribute) [^] |
| Top Betting Market Candidate | Raye (for James Bond 26 theme) [^] |
Eon principals maintain a tradition of carefully selected James Bond theme song artists. Barbara Broccoli and Michael G. Wilson, the principals of Eon Productions, have a history of working with artists to produce James Bond theme songs. Their most recent collaboration was with Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell for the track 'No Time to Die,' which made Eilish the youngest artist to record a Bond theme [^].
Recent industry events highlight potential new artists for upcoming James Bond themes. While extensive public praise or direct collaborations from Broccoli and Wilson with specific emerging candidates have not been widely documented since 'No Time to Die,' a significant interaction occurred at the Oscars in 2025. During this event, artists Lisa, Doja Cat, and Raye performed a James Bond tribute, specifically honoring the film series' producers [^]. This performance marks a notable instance of shared industry presence and acknowledgment, placing these artists directly in a professional context honoring the Bond producers [^]. Concurrently, betting markets have identified artists such as Olivia Dean and Raye as leading candidates for the upcoming theme, with Raye prominently topping the odds for the James Bond 26 theme song [^].
6. Who are the current favorites for the next James Bond theme song?
| Raye's Odds (William Hill) | 3/1 [^] |
|---|---|
| Olivia Dean's Odds (William Hill) | 7/2 [^] |
| Current Market Position | Tied as favourites [^] |
Raye and Olivia Dean lead Bond theme betting markets. Both artists have shown the most significant and sustained positive movement in official UK betting markets, including William Hill and Ladbrokes, for performing the next James Bond theme song, currently considered joint-favourites among bookmakers [^]. Raye's odds have shortened considerably, placing her at the top of the market with odds of 3/1 at William Hill. This significant positive shift in her betting position is directly correlated with the anticipation and buzz surrounding her planned performance at Glastonbury 2025 [^]. Her emergence as a leading contender is attributed to this high-profile event.
Olivia Dean's profile rise fueled her odds shifts. She has similarly experienced a notable positive movement in the betting markets, becoming a new favourite by July 2024 [^]. At that time, her odds were 7/2 with William Hill and 4/1 with Ladbrokes [^]. Dean's ascendancy to a frontrunner position indicates a sustained increase in her profile and public backing, leading bookmakers to significantly shorten her odds and place her alongside Raye as a top contender [^].
7. Who is Directing Bond 26 and Who is the Lead Actor?
| Bond 26 Director | Denis Villeneuve (officially announced) [^] |
|---|---|
| Bond 26 Lead Actor | Not yet announced (announcement anticipated in 2026) [^] |
| Villeneuve's Key Musical Collaborator | Jóhann Jóhannsson [^] |
Denis Villeneuve has been officially announced as the director for Bond 26 [^] . However, the lead actor for the upcoming James Bond film has not yet been selected. The casting search for the new 007 is expected to commence soon, with an announcement projected for 2026 [^]. Villeneuve has expressed a desire to cast an "unknown" British actor in the role [^]. Consequently, specific information regarding the lead actor's musical influences or past collaborations cannot be provided at this time.
Director Denis Villeneuve frequently collaborated with composer Jóhann Jóhannsson. Villeneuve has a notable history of professional collaboration with the late composer Jóhann Jóhannsson, who scored several of his acclaimed films, including Prisoners, Sicario, and Arrival [^]. Villeneuve publicly lauded Jóhannsson, referring to him as a "genius" [^]. While Jóhannsson was initially set to compose for Villeneuve's Blade Runner 2049, creative differences ultimately led to Hans Zimmer and Benjamin Wallfisch taking over the scoring responsibilities for that project [^].
8. Which Artists Had James Bond Theme Song Demos Rejected?
| Artists with Rejected Bond Demos | Radiohead, Pulp, Alice Cooper, Johnny Cash, Lana Del Rey [^] |
|---|---|
| Lana Del Rey's Rejected Demo Film | Spectre (2015) [^] |
| Lana Del Rey's Management Agency | CAA (Creative Artists Agency) [^] |
Several prominent artists have submitted rejected James Bond theme songs. Five notable artists, including Radiohead, Pulp, Alice Cooper, Johnny Cash, and Lana Del Rey, have all had their theme song demos turned down for various James Bond films [^]. Radiohead's song "Spectre" was not chosen for the 2015 film of the same name, while Pulp's "Tomorrow Never Lies" was rejected for the 1997 movie Tomorrow Never Dies [^]. Additionally, Alice Cooper's demo for The Man With The Golden Gun and Johnny Cash's pitch for Thunderball were also declined [^].
Lana Del Rey stands out due to her agency representation. Her song submitted for the film Spectre was ultimately rejected, placing her among the artists with unselected Bond theme demos [^]. Beyond her musical submissions, Lana Del Rey is also represented by Creative Artists Agency (CAA), an agency recognized for managing significant talent within the entertainment industry [^]. The research did not identify any other artists mentioned in this context with specific management agencies or strong public desires to write Bond themes.
9. When Are James Bond Theme Song Artists Typically Announced?
| Skyfall Announcement | 3-4 weeks before UK release (Adele, October 1, 2012) [^] |
|---|---|
| Spectre Announcement | About 7 weeks before UK release (Sam Smith, September 8, 2015) [^] |
| No Time to Die Announcement | Roughly 2.5 months before original planned release (Billie Eilish, January 14, 2020) [^] |
Bond film theme artists are announced during post-production. For the most recent James Bond films, the theme song artist has consistently been announced during the post-production phase, typically ranging from a few weeks to a couple of months before the film's release. For 'Skyfall', Adele was officially revealed as the artist on October 1, 2012, approximately three to four weeks prior to its UK release on October 26, 2012 [^]. Similarly, Sam Smith's confirmation for 'Spectre' occurred on September 8, 2015, about seven weeks before its October 26, 2015, UK premiere [^]. The announcement for 'No Time to Die' featured Billie Eilish on January 14, 2020, which was roughly 2.5 months before the film's initial April 2020 release date, though the movie was subsequently delayed [^]. In each instance, these announcements took place well after principal photography had concluded, firmly situating them within the post-production phase [^].
Bond 26 currently lacks an official production start date. As of the latest updates, there is no official production start date or release date announced for 'Bond 26' [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2035
- Closes: January 01, 2035
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
Get Real-Time Research Updates
Sign up for early access to live reports, historical data, and AI-powered market insights delivered to your inbox.
