Will A Court Of Thorns and Roses be released?
Yes refers to: Before Jan 2030
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully lower odds than the market for A Court Of Thorns and Roses being released 'Before Jan 2030', at 43.0% model vs 63.0% market. This suggests a potential mispricing in the market's assessment of the release timeline.
1. Executive Verdict
- Hulu is no longer developing the 'A Court of Thorns and Roses' adaptation.
- Author Sarah J. Maas confirmed the series' halt in February 2024.
- Intellectual property rights for the ACOTAR series reverted to the author.
- The previously announced ACOTAR TV series at Hulu is canceled.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 2030 | 63.0% | 43.0% | Anticipated demand for the popular book series adaptation drives ongoing production efforts. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has demonstrated a sideways trading pattern, oscillating within a defined range without establishing a clear long-term upward or downward trend. The price has moved between a low of 40.0% and a high of 65.0%, with the current price of 63.0% matching its starting point. Despite the overall flat trend, the market has experienced significant short-term volatility. Notably, there was a sharp 24.0 percentage point drop on March 31, followed by a 22.0 percentage point spike the very next day on April 1. Without any accompanying news or context provided, the specific catalysts for these dramatic price swings are not apparent and may be attributable to speculation or rumor within a thinly traded market.
The trading volume for this market is relatively low, with a total of 327 contracts traded across 172 data points. The low volume suggests a lack of broad market participation and conviction, which can often amplify price volatility as even small trades can cause significant shifts. The price action has established a clear support level around the 40.0% mark, where the price reversed sharply, and a resistance level in the 64.0%-65.0% zone, which has capped upward movements on multiple occasions. These levels define the primary trading channel for the market.
Overall, the chart suggests a market sentiment that is cautiously optimistic but highly uncertain. The current price of 63.0% indicates that traders, on balance, believe the television series is more likely to be released than not. However, the dramatic fluctuations and the inability of the price to break out of its established range indicate that this belief is not held with strong conviction. The market appears to be highly sensitive and reactive, suggesting that traders are awaiting a definitive piece of news to establish a clear directional trend.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 01, 2026: 22.0pp spike
Price increased from 40.0% to 62.0%
Outcome: Before Jan 2030
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📉 March 31, 2026: 24.0pp drop
Price decreased from 64.0% to 40.0%
Outcome: Before Jan 2030
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📈 March 29, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 54.0% to 64.0%
Outcome: Before Jan 2030
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📉 March 25, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 64.0% to 54.0%
Outcome: Before Jan 2030
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "Yes" resolution occurs if a running TV series for "A Court Of Thorns and Roses" is announced before January 1, 2030, as reported by specified media outlets including The New York Times and Variety. If no such announcement is made by this deadline, the market resolves to "No." The market will close early if the event occurs, otherwise, it closes on January 1, 2030, at 10:00 am EST, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. Trading is prohibited for employees of the source agencies and individuals with material, non-public information.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 2030 | $0.64 | $0.42 | 63% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Is Hulu's 'A Court of Thorns and Roses' TV Series Cancelled?
| Project Status | Hulu adaptation no longer moving forward [^] |
|---|---|
| Screen Rights | Reverted to author Sarah J. Maas [^] |
| Showrunner/Script | No new showrunner attached or revised pilot script greenlit by Hulu [^] |
Hulu is no longer developing 'A Court of Thorns and Roses' adaptation. Author Sarah J. Maas confirmed that the television adaptation of 'A Court of Thorns and Roses' is no longer in development at Hulu, with all screen rights for the series having reverted to her [^]. Consequently, Hulu has not attached a new showrunner to replace Ronald D. Moore, who was previously associated with the project during its time with the streamer [^].
No formal greenlight occurred for a revised pilot script. Despite an initial pilot script having been drafted, the Hulu adaptation never formally progressed to the script-writing stage for production. As a result, no individual or team has received a formal greenlight from Hulu on a revised pilot script, as the entire project with Hulu has been discontinued [^].
6. Is the A Court of Thorns and Roses Hulu Series Still Happening?
| Adaptation Status | Confirmed "no longer moving forward" in February 2024 (Sarah J. Maas) [^] |
|---|---|
| Screen Rights | Reverted to author Sarah J. Maas [^] |
| Development Duration | Approximately 3-4 years, from 2021, without progressing to production [^] |
The Hulu adaptation of "A Court of Thorns and Roses" is officially halted. Author Sarah J. Maas confirmed in February 2024 that the series is "no longer moving forward," with the screen rights reverting to her [^]. This project had been in development since at least 2021, a period of approximately three to four years, without ever progressing to production [^].
Consequently, the project is not on Hulu or Disney's current content priorities. It is not included in their internal production slate or upcoming fiscal year content plans, nor does it have an allocated multi-season production budget [^]. Therefore, "A Court of Thorns and Roses" would not be mentioned as an active or prospective project in Disney's investor calls, as it is no longer part of their development pipeline [^].
Any future screen adaptation would be independent of the canceled Hulu series. While Sarah J. Maas has indicated a desire for a future screen adaptation of the "ACOTAR" universe, any such project would be a separate endeavor, entirely independent of the previously planned Hulu series [^].
7. When Did 'A Court of Thorns and Roses' Rights Revert to Maas?
| IP Rights Status | Reverted to author Sarah J. Maas [^] |
|---|---|
| Series Status at Hulu | Confirmed dead [^] |
| Full Rights Reversion Date | January 2026 [^] |
Rights for the 'ACOTAR' series officially reverted to author Sarah J. Maas. The intellectual property rights option for the 'A Court of Thorns and Roses' series, previously held by 20th Television and Hulu, has now returned to its author [^]. This development follows reports from February 2025 confirming that the fantasy series adaptation was no longer moving forward at Hulu and 20th Television [^].
The option's hard expiration date was January 2026. This date marked the full reversion of all major film and television rights to Sarah J. Maas [^]. The reversion occurred after the project spent approximately four years in what has been termed 'development hell,' failing to achieve any significant production milestones [^]. Hulu ultimately decided to discontinue the adaptation [^]. This outcome is consistent with an option not being exercised or renewed due to a lack of progress, which resulted in the rights returning to Maas and making them available for new opportunities with other studios [^].
8. What is the Current Status of the ACOTAR TV Series?
| Hulu Series Status | No longer moving forward [^] |
|---|---|
| Rights Reverted To | Author Sarah J. Maas (February 2023) [^] |
| Official Casting Calls | None issued via industry channels [^] |
The previously announced "A Court of Thorns and Roses" (ACOTAR) TV series at Hulu is no longer moving forward. The series, which was in development, has been cancelled [^]. Author Sarah J. Maas confirmed in February 2023 that the rights to the series reverted to her, indicating the project was essentially scrapped by Hulu [^]. As of the latest available information, no current network is attached to the series [^].
No official pre-production activities have commenced for the ACOTAR series. Consequently, there have been no tangible pre-production activities signaling a move out of 'development hell' [^]. This includes the formal attachment of a casting director or the issuance of official casting calls for main roles such as Feyre, Rhysand, or Tamlin via industry channels like Backstage or Casting Networks [^]. While some online sources, including IMDb, have published speculative articles discussing potential actors for various roles, these do not represent official casting calls or announcements from an active production [^].
9. Is the A Court of Thorns and Roses TV Series Canceled?
| Series Status | Officially scrapped by Hulu (rights reverted to Sarah J. Maas in April 2024) [^] |
|---|---|
| Production Green Light | Never received a green light for production [^] |
| Development Duration | Approximately four years [^] |
The "A Court of Thorns and Roses" (ACOTAR) TV series adaptation for Hulu is officially canceled. The rights to the series reverted to author Sarah J. Maas in April 2024 [^]. Showrunner Ronald D. Moore confirmed in April 2024 that the series, after years in development, never went into production as Hulu ultimately decided to pass on the project [^]. Maas herself stated in April 2024 that the series did not receive a "green light" and is "not moving forward in this incarnation" [^].
No writers' room was convened, nor scripts approved, for the series. Due to the project not receiving a green light, no active writers' room has been convened for "A Court of Thorns and Roses" in the last six months. Consequently, no series bible or multiple episode scripts passed review by Hulu executives to secure approval for production [^]. The adaptation is no longer moving forward in its previous form [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2030
- Closes: January 01, 2030
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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