Where will Folded chart on the Apr 18, 2026 Billboard Hot 100?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- 'Folded' peak performance occurred well in advance of April 2026.
- No major media features or significant Q1 2026 UGC identified for 'Folded'.
- Snoop Dogg and BTS release new albums competing on the April 18 chart.
- Kehlani's established artist status suggests a baseline of listenership.
- 'Folded' achieved significant early Spotify editorial playlist support.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 61.0% | 72.3% | Initial radio peaks were not Top 10, and success peaked well before April 2026 without new catalysts. |
| 9 | 11.0% | 12.7% | Initial radio peaks were not Top 10, and success peaked well before April 2026 without new catalysts. |
| 1 | 0.0% | 2.0% | Initial radio peaks were not Top 10, and success peaked well before April 2026 without new catalysts. |
| 2 | 0.0% | 2.0% | Initial radio peaks were not Top 10, and success peaked well before April 2026 without new catalysts. |
| 3 | 0.0% | 2.0% | Initial radio peaks were not Top 10, and success peaked well before April 2026 without new catalysts. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if the song "Folded" is ranked #10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Apr 18, 2026, with the outcome verified from Billboard's official website; otherwise, it resolves to NO.
The market opened on Apr 3, 2026, at 3:05 pm EDT. It will close and expire early if the relevant Billboard chart is released on their official website; otherwise, it closes by Apr 12, 2026, at 11:59 pm EDT. Payouts are projected 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | $0.93 | $0.95 | 61% |
| 9 | $0.96 | $0.98 | 11% |
| 1 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| 2 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| 3 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| 4 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| 5 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| 6 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| 7 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| 8 | $0.97 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. Has Kehlani's 'Folded' Met Spotify and Radio Airplay Goals?
| Spotify Editorial Playlists | Included in 'Today's Top Hits', 'RapCaviar', and '¡Viva Latino!' [^] |
|---|---|
| US Mainstream Top 40 Peak | Number 18 [^] |
| US Top 40/CHR Stations | Confirmed airplay on more than 20 stations [^] |
5. What Is 'Folded' UGC Velocity on TikTok and Instagram Reels?
| Folded' UGC Daily Velocity Q1 2026 | Not available for TikTok or Instagram Reels (Research) [^] |
|---|---|
| Primary Research Focus | Billboard Hot 100 predictions for 'Folded' [^] |
| General TikTok Music Data | General marketing statistics in 2026 available [^] |
6. Has Knock2 Released Music with #1 Billboard Artist Recently?
| Knock2 Debut LP Release Date | January 26, 2025 [^] |
|---|---|
| RL Grime Collaboration Mention Date | November 7, 2024 [^] |
| New Tracks/Albums with #1 Artists (April 18, 2025 - April 18, 2026) | No evidence found [^] |
7. Has Kehlani's Song 'Folded' Been Featured in Major Media (2025-2026)?
| Song 'Folded' Confirmation | Confirmed existence via official music video [^] |
|---|---|
| Film 'Folded in Grey' (2025) | Listed on The Movie Database, no song feature details provided [^] |
| Feature in Major Media (Jan 2025 - Apr 2026) | No explicit features in major global media releases identified (Comprehensive web research findings) [^] |
8. Which superstar artists are releasing albums in April 2026?
| Superstar Artist 1 | Snoop Dogg (Confirmed April 10, 2026 release) [^] |
|---|---|
| Superstar Artist 2 | BTS (Confirmed April 10, 2026 release) [^] |
| Superstar Artist Definition | At least two #1 albums on the Billboard 200 chart [^] |
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 02, 2026
- Closes: April 13, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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