Where will ARIRANG chart on the Apr 18, 2026 Billboard 200?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- ARIRANG's sales show a declining trend, holding No. 1 with 105,000 units.
- Kanye West's "BULLY" debuted at No. 2, adding strong competition.
- Yeat's "ADL" also debuted in the Top 5 during the same week.
- New strong competition will likely displace ARIRANG from the top spot.
- ARIRANG's 105,000 units indicate continued substantial sales and streams.
- The April 18 chart reflects ARIRANG's fourth tracking week.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 98.0% | 81.0% | Market higher by 17.0pp |
| 10 | 1.0% | 0.9% | Market higher by 0.1pp |
| 3 | 1.0% | 1.3% | Model higher by 0.3pp |
| 2 | 4.0% | 1.0% | Market higher by 3.0pp |
| 5 | 1.0% | 0.9% | Market higher by 0.1pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: 3
📉 April 08, 2026: 15.0pp drop
Price decreased from 16.0% to 1.0%
Outcome: 1
📈 April 07, 2026: 18.0pp spike
Price increased from 79.0% to 97.0%
📈 April 05, 2026: 11.0pp spike
Price increased from 65.0% to 76.0%
📈 April 03, 2026: 66.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 67.0%
Outcome: 2
📉 April 06, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 26.0% to 17.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to Yes if "ARIRANG" is ranked #1 on the Billboard 200 chart for the Week of April 18, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to No. The outcome will be verified from Billboard.com. The market opened on April 3, 2026, and will close early if the relevant Billboard chart is officially released, or by April 12, 2026, at 11:59 pm EDT if not.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $1.00 | $0.02 | 98% |
| 4 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 9% |
| 2 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 4% |
| 10 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 3 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 5 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 6 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 7 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 8 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 9 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What Were ARIRANG Album US Sales Figures for April 2026?
| Third-Week US Equivalent Album Units | 105,000 equivalent album units (week ending April 7, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Debut Week US Equivalent Album Units | 652,000 equivalent album units (week ending March 21, 2026) [^] |
| Second-Week US Equivalent Album Units | 185,000 equivalent album units (week ending April 4, 2026) [^] |
6. How Did Recent Album Releases Perform on Billboard Charts?
| Kanye West "BULLY" Debut | No. 2 on Billboard 200 [^] |
|---|---|
| Yeat "ADL" Debut | Top 5 on Billboard 200 [^] |
| Luke Combs "The Way I Am" Debut | No. 1 on Top Country Albums [^] |
7. How Did BTS Promote Their 'ARIRANG' Album in the US?
| Main US Promotional Activity | Full group return to The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon [^] |
|---|---|
| Songs Performed on TV | Two songs [^] |
| Album Chart Debut | No. 1 on the Billboard 200 Albums Chart [^] |
8. How Do ARIRANG Sales Tactics Impact Billboard Chart Eligibility?
| Signed Album Sales | All copies count towards charts [^] |
|---|---|
| Non-Signed Bulk Purchases | Over 4 copies per transaction may be filtered [^] |
| Bundled Album Sales | Up to 4 copies may count per transaction if bundled with merchandise [^] |
9. When Will April 2026 Album Sales Charts Be Released?
| HDD Chart Release Date | April 11 or April 12, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| BTS 'ARIRANG' Debut | #1 on Billboard 200 (first-week units not specified) [^] |
| Reference #1 Debut Units | 148,000 album equivalent units (Kanye West's 'Bully') [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 02, 2026
- Closes: April 13, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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