Who will play Moneypenny in the next James Bond?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Producers hold primary authority over Moneypenny casting decisions for Bond 26.
- Moneypenny casting probabilities remain stable due to early production stages.
- Market consensus regarding Moneypenny casting appears premature currently.
- No clear frontrunner exists for the role of Moneypenny in Bond 26.
- Major James Bond 26 casting announcements are anticipated in 2025-2026.
- A notable shift in market sentiment occurred on April 5, 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jodie Turner-Smith | 4.0% | 1.4% | Her compelling screen presence and diverse roles make her a strong candidate for the part. |
| Alison Oliver | 5.0% | 1.8% | An emerging actress gaining recognition from recent high-profile performances. |
| Phoebe Dynevor | 6.0% | 2.2% | Her rising star power from popular series could lead to new high-profile franchise roles. |
| Naomie Harris | 19.0% | 6.5% | She has already played Moneypenny in the previous three James Bond films. |
| Juno Temple | 4.0% | 1.4% | Her unique acting style and wide range of roles offer a fresh take on the character. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 05, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 10.0% to 19.0%
Outcome: Naomie Harris
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "Yes" resolution occurs if Naomie Harris is officially announced or performs as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film; this includes if the film is cancelled after her announcement or if she is part of a multiple-person casting for the role. A "No" resolution is triggered if the film completes without her involvement, or if another person is officially announced as the sole performer for Moneypenny. The market is open from January 9, 2026, until it closes on January 1, 2031, with outcomes verified through 007.com.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naomie Harris | $0.20 | $0.90 | 19% |
| Phoebe Dynevor | $0.15 | $0.94 | 6% |
| Alison Oliver | $0.13 | $0.96 | 5% |
| Jodie Turner-Smith | $0.13 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Juno Temple | $0.14 | $0.96 | 4% |
| Emma Corrin | $0.12 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Jodie Comer | $0.13 | $0.97 | 3% |
| Meg Bellamy | $0.11 | $0.99 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What Factors Determine Moneypenny Casting in Bond 26?
| Ultimate Decision Makers | Barbara Broccoli and Michael G. Wilson [^] |
|---|---|
| Casting Process Start | 2026 [^] |
| Key Casting Factors | New script requirements and franchise direction [^] |
6. What's the Latest on Moneypenny Casting in James Bond 26?
| Bond 26 Development Status | Early stages, with script work ongoing [^] |
|---|---|
| Moneypenny Casting News | No significant recent developments or data shifting probability [Implied from 4, 5, 7] [^] |
| Prediction Market Activity | Continues to reflect speculative interest pending announcements [^] |
7. Why is Moneypenny Casting Consensus Premature for Bond 26?
| Bond Actor Casting Expected | 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Moneypenny Casting Timeline | After Bond actor chosen [^] |
| Bond 26 Script Status | Under development [^] |
8. Who is the frontrunner to play Moneypenny in Bond 26?
| Prediction Market Uncertainty | No Specific Actor (34%) [^] |
|---|---|
| Top Individual Candidate | Naomi Scott (27%) [^] |
| Official Casting Timeline | Not expected until 2026 [^], [^] |
9. When Will Key Next James Bond Casting Decisions Be Announced?
| James Bond Casting Search Start | 2025 [^] or 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Major Cast Announcements | 2026 [^] |
| James Bond 26 Filming Start | Late 2026 [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2031
- Closes: January 01, 2031
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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