Who will play Felix Leiter in the next James Bond?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Javier Bardem has strong ties to the announced Bond 26 director.
- Bond 26 production is scheduled for Q4 2026 / Q1 2027.
- No reputable industry sources report Felix Leiter chemistry reads.
- Creative Artists Agency successfully placed actors in recent Bond films.
- New James Bond actor casting will strongly influence Felix Leiter choice.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Hoogenakker | 11.0% | 2.9% | The provided background research identifies Javier Bardem as the actor with the strongest professional ties to both the confirmed director and key producers of Bond 26, which overwhelmingly implies a lower probability for John Hoogenakker to be cast as Felix Leiter based on these factors. |
| Wyatt Russell | 3.0% | 1.0% | The provided background research details strong professional ties for Javier Bardem to the Bond 26 director and producers but offers no evidence or specific citations related to Wyatt Russell's potential casting, making the debiased price of 1.0% fair based on this information. |
| Anthony Mackie | 13.0% | 3.6% | While the market assigns Anthony Mackie a 5.7% chance, the provided background research identifies Javier Bardem as the actor with the strongest professional ties to both the confirmed Bond 26 director and producers, and does not mention Anthony Mackie as having similar connections. |
| Albert Jones | 3.0% | 1.0% | The background research provides no specific evidence for Albert Jones playing Felix Leiter, yet this absence is consistent with the already low debiased market price of 1.0%, and the discussion of strong ties for Javier Bardem doesn't directly impact Albert Jones's prospects for the Felix Leiter role given Bardem's prior portrayal as a main villain. |
| Seth Numrich | 3.0% | 1.0% | The provided background research identifies Javier Bardem as the actor with the strongest ties to the Bond 26 director and producers, but offers no information, citations, or even mention of Seth Numrich, making any link to him for the role entirely speculative and supporting the debiased market price of 1.0%. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 March 24, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 11.0% to 3.0%
Outcome: Wyatt Russell
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The provided page content does not contain the contract rules, resolution triggers, key dates, or special settlement conditions for the "Who will play Felix Leiter in the next James Bond?" market. It only displays the market title and navigation links.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Yeun | $0.11 | $0.96 | 14% |
| Anthony Mackie | $0.16 | $0.93 | 13% |
| Aaron Staton | $0.09 | $0.99 | 11% |
| John Hoogenakker | $0.13 | $0.93 | 11% |
| Boyd Holbrook | $0.17 | $0.93 | 7% |
| Chiwetel Ejiofor | $0.14 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Albert Jones | $0.11 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Seth Numrich | $0.11 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Wyatt Russell | $0.11 | $0.98 | 3% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What Actor Has Strong Ties to Bond 26 Director and Producers?
| Bond 26 Director | Denis Villeneuve [^], [^], [^], [^] |
|---|---|
| Eon Producers | Barbara Broccoli [^], Michael G. Wilson [^] |
| Key Actor Connection | Javier Bardem [^] |
6. Do Potential Felix Leiter Actors Have Scheduling Conflicts for Bond?
| Next James Bond Film Production Window | Q4 2026 / Q1 2027 [^] |
|---|---|
| Wyatt Russell's Major Film Release | July 2025 ("Thunderbolts*") [^] |
| Anthony Mackie's Major Film Release | February 2025 ("Captain America: Brave New World") [^] |
7. Have Felix Leiter Actors Done Chemistry Reads With Bond Candidates?
| Felix Leiter Chemistry Reads Confirmed | No confirmation from reputable industry sources [^] |
|---|---|
| Specific Actor Participation Confirmed | No specific actor confirmed for chemistry reads or screen tests [^] |
| Reputable Casting Reports on Screen Tests | None regarding current Felix Leiter screen tests [^] |
8. Which Talent Agencies Placed Actors in Recent Bond and Amazon MGM Films?
| James Bond Franchise Agency | Creative Artists Agency (CAA) placed Jeffrey Wright [^] |
|---|---|
| Amazon MGM Studios Agency | United Talent Agency (UTA) placed Chloe Fineman [^] |
| Jeffrey Wright's Bond Role | Felix Leiter in No Time to Die (2021) [^] |
9. How Will New James Bond Casting Affect Felix Leiter Choice?
| Speculated New Bond Actors | Aaron Taylor-Johnson (33), Regé-Jean Page (35), Michael B. Jordan (36) [^] |
|---|---|
| Potential Felix Leiter Actors | Callum Turner (33) [^], Boyd Holbrook (36) [^] |
| Key Influencers for Leiter Casting | Bond's age, on-screen persona, and ethnicity [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2031
- Closes: January 01, 2031
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
Get Real-Time Research Updates
Sign up for early access to live reports, historical data, and AI-powered market insights delivered to your inbox.