Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Steven Yeun to play Felix Leiter in the next James Bond, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Executive Verdict

  • Javier Bardem has strong ties to the announced Bond 26 director.
  • Bond 26 production is scheduled for Q4 2026 / Q1 2027.
  • No reputable industry sources report Felix Leiter chemistry reads.
  • Creative Artists Agency successfully placed actors in recent Bond films.
  • New James Bond actor casting will strongly influence Felix Leiter choice.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
John Hoogenakker 11.0% 2.9% The provided background research identifies Javier Bardem as the actor with the strongest professional ties to both the confirmed director and key producers of Bond 26, which overwhelmingly implies a lower probability for John Hoogenakker to be cast as Felix Leiter based on these factors.
Wyatt Russell 3.0% 1.0% The provided background research details strong professional ties for Javier Bardem to the Bond 26 director and producers but offers no evidence or specific citations related to Wyatt Russell's potential casting, making the debiased price of 1.0% fair based on this information.
Anthony Mackie 13.0% 3.6% While the market assigns Anthony Mackie a 5.7% chance, the provided background research identifies Javier Bardem as the actor with the strongest professional ties to both the confirmed Bond 26 director and producers, and does not mention Anthony Mackie as having similar connections.
Albert Jones 3.0% 1.0% The background research provides no specific evidence for Albert Jones playing Felix Leiter, yet this absence is consistent with the already low debiased market price of 1.0%, and the discussion of strong ties for Javier Bardem doesn't directly impact Albert Jones's prospects for the Felix Leiter role given Bardem's prior portrayal as a main villain.
Seth Numrich 3.0% 1.0% The provided background research identifies Javier Bardem as the actor with the strongest ties to the Bond 26 director and producers, but offers no information, citations, or even mention of Seth Numrich, making any link to him for the role entirely speculative and supporting the debiased market price of 1.0%.

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This analysis covers the prediction market for who will play Felix Leiter in the next James Bond film. The market has exhibited a sideways trend, trading within a defined range of 3.0% to 11.0%. The most significant price movement was a sharp 8.0 percentage point drop on March 24, 2026, which took the price from its peak of 11.0% down to 3.0%. Since this drop, the price has stabilized at the 3.0% level, which appears to be acting as a support floor for the market. The previous high of 11.0% serves as a clear resistance level.
The cause of the significant price drop on March 24 is not apparent from the provided context. Given the extremely low trading volume, with a total of only two contracts traded across the market's history, this movement was likely the result of a single, small transaction. This low volume indicates a lack of market participation and conviction. Price changes in such a thin market are not necessarily reflective of a broad shift in sentiment or new information, but rather the actions of one or two individuals.
Overall, the chart suggests that market sentiment is deeply skeptical about this particular outcome. The current price of 3.0% implies that participants see this as a very low probability event. The minimal trading activity further underscores that there is little interest or belief in this contract resolving affirmatively. The price action is more indicative of speculative, low-conviction trades than a consensus-driven forecast.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📉 March 24, 2026: 8.0pp drop

Price decreased from 11.0% to 3.0%

Outcome: Wyatt Russell

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

4. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

The provided page content does not contain the contract rules, resolution triggers, key dates, or special settlement conditions for the "Who will play Felix Leiter in the next James Bond?" market. It only displays the market title and navigation links.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Steven Yeun $0.11 $0.96 14%
Anthony Mackie $0.16 $0.93 13%
Aaron Staton $0.09 $0.99 11%
John Hoogenakker $0.13 $0.93 11%
Boyd Holbrook $0.17 $0.93 7%
Chiwetel Ejiofor $0.14 $0.95 6%
Albert Jones $0.11 $0.99 3%
Seth Numrich $0.11 $0.99 3%
Wyatt Russell $0.11 $0.98 3%

Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

5. What Actor Has Strong Ties to Bond 26 Director and Producers?

Bond 26 DirectorDenis Villeneuve [^], [^], [^], [^]
Eon ProducersBarbara Broccoli [^], Michael G. Wilson [^]
Key Actor ConnectionJavier Bardem [^]
Javier Bardem has the strongest recent relationship with 'Bond 26' director. Denis Villeneuve has been officially announced as the director for 'Bond 26' [^], [^], [^], [^], with Barbara Broccoli [^] and Michael G. Wilson [^] serving as the key Eon Productions producers. Javier Bardem stands out as the actor with the strongest and most recent professional relationship with Villeneuve. Bardem recently collaborated with Denis Villeneuve on the major hit film Dune (2021), where he played the role of Stilgar [^]. While other actors like Josh Brolin, Rebecca Ferguson, Timothée Chalamet, and Zendaya have worked on multiple projects with Villeneuve, their direct professional relationship with the Eon Productions producers is not documented in the provided sources.
Bardem also maintains a significant bond with Eon Productions. Javier Bardem also has a significant and well-regarded professional relationship with Barbara Broccoli and Michael G. Wilson. He famously portrayed the antagonist Raoul Silva in the James Bond film Skyfall (2012) [^], [^]. This film was a major critical and commercial success for the Bond franchise, which Broccoli [^] and Wilson [^] both produced.
Bardem uniquely bridges connections with both the director and producers. Therefore, Javier Bardem uniquely fulfills the criteria for an actor having a strong and recent professional relationship with both the confirmed director Denis Villeneuve through Dune and a past major hit film collaboration with the long-standing Bond producers Barbara Broccoli and Michael G. Wilson through Skyfall.

6. Do Potential Felix Leiter Actors Have Scheduling Conflicts for Bond?

Next James Bond Film Production WindowQ4 2026 / Q1 2027 [^]
Wyatt Russell's Major Film ReleaseJuly 2025 ("Thunderbolts*") [^]
Anthony Mackie's Major Film ReleaseFebruary 2025 ("Captain America: Brave New World") [^]
The next James Bond film's production window is Q4 2026 / Q1 2027 [^] . Actors Wyatt Russell and Anthony Mackie, both considered potential candidates for the role of Felix Leiter, have major film commitments that are not expected to conflict with this schedule. Wyatt Russell's film "Thunderbolts*" is set for release in July 2025 [^], and Anthony Mackie's "Captain America: Brave New World" is scheduled for February 2025 [^]. Production for both films would therefore likely conclude well in advance of the Bond film's anticipated filming period.
However, both actors have multi-season television series that pose potential conflicts. Wyatt Russell is involved in the television series "Monarch: Legacy of Monsters," which has been renewed for a second season. The specific production dates for future seasons of "Monarch" are not publicly available, creating a potential scheduling conflict depending on its filming schedule [^]. Similarly, Anthony Mackie stars in the television series "Twisted Metal," which has also been renewed for a second season. Like Russell's television commitment, the continuation of "Twisted Metal" could potentially clash with a late 2026 / early 2027 Bond production, as its specific filming dates are not detailed in the provided sources [^]. Therefore, while their major film projects are expected to finish, their respective multi-season television series present potential, though unconfirmed, scheduling challenges.

7. Have Felix Leiter Actors Done Chemistry Reads With Bond Candidates?

Felix Leiter Chemistry Reads ConfirmedNo confirmation from reputable industry sources [^]
Specific Actor Participation ConfirmedNo specific actor confirmed for chemistry reads or screen tests [^]
Reputable Casting Reports on Screen TestsNone regarding current Felix Leiter screen tests [^]
Reputable industry sources do not report Felix Leiter chemistry reads. Based on available web research, there are no casting reports from reputable industry sources like Deadline or Variety that indicate a potential Felix Leiter actor has participated in chemistry reads or screen tests with leading candidates for the James Bond role, such as Aaron Taylor-Johnson. The provided sources discuss various aspects related to James Bond, but none specifically address current casting developments for Felix Leiter involving chemistry reads or screen tests [^].
Other research discussed general Bond casting, not specific Leiter screen tests. While some sources discuss the possibility of an "unknown" British actor being cast as James Bond, potentially referencing Denis Villeneuve [^], or provide historical accounts of actors declining the Bond role [^], these do not offer information about specific chemistry reads or screen tests for the Felix Leiter character. Other available sources are either speculative articles about potential Leiter casting without citing industry reports [^], or they are unrelated to the current casting process for the James Bond franchise [^].

8. Which Talent Agencies Placed Actors in Recent Bond and Amazon MGM Films?

James Bond Franchise AgencyCreative Artists Agency (CAA) placed Jeffrey Wright [^]
Amazon MGM Studios AgencyUnited Talent Agency (UTA) placed Chloe Fineman [^]
Jeffrey Wright's Bond RoleFelix Leiter in No Time to Die (2021) [^]
Creative Artists Agency shows a strong track record in recent James Bond films. The agency successfully placed actors in significant supporting roles within the franchise, notably Jeffrey Wright, who portrayed the recurring character Felix Leiter in the 2021 installment, No Time to Die [^]. Wright is represented by CAA, with his affiliation extending to CAA Speakers [^]. This consistent representation highlights CAA's established relationship with the James Bond series.
United Talent Agency secured a significant role in an Amazon MGM Studios film. Chloe Fineman, represented by United Talent Agency (UTA) [^], was cast in Amazon MGM Studios' production Red, White & Royal Wedding [^]. While other actors, such as Catherine Keener and Lena Headey, have also joined recent Amazon MGM Studios projects, their specific talent agencies were not identified in the available research [^].

9. How Will New James Bond Casting Affect Felix Leiter Choice?

Speculated New Bond ActorsAaron Taylor-Johnson (33), Regé-Jean Page (35), Michael B. Jordan (36) [^]
Potential Felix Leiter ActorsCallum Turner (33) [^], Boyd Holbrook (36) [^]
Key Influencers for Leiter CastingBond's age, on-screen persona, and ethnicity [^]
The selection of the new James Bond actor will largely dictate the ideal profile for Felix Leiter. Should the producers opt for a younger Bond, such as speculated contenders Aaron Taylor-Johnson (33) or Regé-Jean Page (35) [^], a similarly youthful Felix Leiter would be sought. This pairing would establish a dynamic peer partnership, signaling a contemporary direction for the franchise by fostering shared experience and camaraderie between agents at similar career stages [^]. Actors like Callum Turner (33) [^] or Boyd Holbrook (36) [^] are considered potential candidates to fulfill this younger Leiter role.
Leiter's casting reflects diverse themes and the Bond relationship's future. If the new James Bond represents a significant shift in ethnicity, for example, with an actor like Michael B. Jordan (36) [^] cast, the choice of Felix Leiter could either mirror this diversity or present a contrasting figure to highlight varied perspectives within the spy world [^]. Conversely, an older, more established Bond might be paired with a younger Leiter, bringing new energy to the partnership with Bond acting as a seasoned guide [^]. Ultimately, the selection for Felix Leiter, in terms of age, persona, and ethnicity, will serve as a clear signal for the intended direction of the Bond/Leiter relationship, emphasizing themes such as youthful collaboration, cross-cultural alliances, or enduring friendship between operatives.

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Catalyst analysis unavailable.

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: January 01, 2031
  • Closes: January 01, 2031

11. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.

13. Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.