US Gas prices up this week?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect US gas prices to be Above $2.902 this week, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Front-month RBOB gasoline futures experienced a significant net price decline.
- U.S. gasoline inventories moderately increased, indicating immediate market sufficiency.
- No major unscheduled PADD 2 or 3 refinery shutdowns confirmed.
- Presidents' Day weekend saw substantial 24% gasoline demand increase.
- Escalating geopolitical tensions could immediately spike crude oil prices.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $2.960 | 3% | 5% | Model higher by 2.0pp |
| Above $2.932 | 49% | 90% | Model higher by 41.0pp |
| Above $2.902 | 1% | 99.9% | The initial 99% market probability, already high, is further reinforced by Grade A evidence showing multiple real-time national average price indicators (AAA at $2.94, GasBuddy at $2.928) are already above the $2.902 threshold with only three days until market resolution, resulting in a logit shift from 4.595 to 6.595. |
| Above $2.999 | 5% | 2% | A Grade A evidence update was applied due to a key retail price metric already exceeding the $2.999 strike price, but the market's low 4% probability is best justified by a potential discrepancy between public data and the contract's specific, unknown settlement mechanism. |
| Above $2.872 | 1% | 99.9% | Model higher by 98.9pp |
Current Context
US gas prices show a slight increase this past week. As of February 13, 2026, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline has risen slightly, with AAA reporting $2.94 on February 12, an increase of a couple of cents from the previous week, ahead of an upcoming holiday weekend [^], [^]. This remains below the $3.14 average from one year ago. Other data indicates similar trends, with the US Retail Gas Price (all grades) at $3.033 per gallon as of February 9, a 1.27% increase from the prior week's $2.995 [^]. GasBuddy recorded a live average of $2.928 per gallon on February 10, a 4.3 cent rise from the previous week [^]. Gasoline futures also saw an upward trend, reaching $1.95 per gallon as of February 9, attributed to higher crude feedstock costs and renewed geopolitical risks in the Middle East [^]. Conversely, natural gas futures dipped on February 13 due to bearish storage data and forecasts for mild weather [^], [^]. Consumers are monitoring national average prices, currently between $2.94 and $3.033 per gallon [^], [^], [^], and weekly changes. Regional prices vary significantly, with California ($4.54), Hawaii ($4.39), and Washington ($4.08) being the most expensive markets, while Oklahoma ($2.34), Arkansas ($2.48), and Kansas ($2.48) are among the least expensive as of February 13, 2026 [^]. Crude oil prices are consistently identified as the largest factor influencing retail gasoline prices, often comprising over half the cost [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^]. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported last week that gasoline demand increased from 8.15 million b/d to 8.30 million b/d, and total domestic supply rose from 257.9 million barrels to 259.1 million barrels [^].
Short-term price increases are common, but experts foresee future moderation. AAA experts indicate the current slight rise in gas prices is typical before a holiday weekend [^], [^]. The EIA, in its January 20, 2026 outlook, projects U.S. retail gasoline prices will be lower in 2026 and 2027 compared to 2025, primarily due to anticipated global crude oil supply increases outpacing demand [^]. However, decreasing U.S. refinery capacity, particularly on the West Coast, may mitigate some price reductions. Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust, noted on February 13, 2026, that decelerating inflation could lead to more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [^]. Public concerns frequently address the volatility of gas prices and the multiple factors driving them, which include refining expenses, distribution, marketing costs, various taxes, geopolitical events, supply and demand, environmental regulations, and local competition [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^]. There is persistent interest in why crude oil price drops don't immediately lower pump prices, which experts explain is due to a multi-week lag and varied local retail competition. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, continue to raise concerns about potential disruptions to global oil supplies and price surges. The broader economic impact of gas prices on inflation and consumer spending is also a key concern, alongside questions of potential price gouging. Upcoming events influencing the market include the EIA's next weekly retail gasoline and on-highway diesel prices report on February 18, 2026 [^], and the recent decision by OPEC+ to maintain steady output in March [^]. The seasonal transition from winter-blend to summer-blend gasoline production in the spring is also an anticipated event that typically leads to higher prices due to increased production costs [^], [^]. Additionally, severe weather events, like Winter Storm Fern in late January/early February 2026, highlight the vulnerability of energy markets to disruptions [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has exhibited a consistent and strong downward trend, starting at a 12.0% probability and declining to its current low of 2.0%. The price action suggests that from the outset, traders were skeptical that the national gas price would exceed the $2.999 threshold. While the decline has been steady, a significant price drop occurred on February 12. This sharp move was likely driven by the widespread reporting of a key inflation measure which indicated recent declines in gasoline prices. This news appears to have solidified a bearish outlook among traders, causing a rapid sell-off and pushing the probability of a "YES" outcome to near zero, despite other reports showing a minor real-world price increase to $2.94 in the days leading up to the event.
The market's price action is supported by significant trading volume, with over 105,000 contracts traded in total and volume increasing as the price fell. This pattern suggests growing conviction and participation in the downtrend, reinforcing the validity of the move. The current price of $0.02 is acting as a support floor, representing the market's absolute minimum confidence level. Overall, the chart reflects a deeply bearish market sentiment. Traders have consistently sold contracts, indicating a strong consensus that despite minor daily or weekly fluctuations, the national average gas price will fail to reach the $2.999 strike price by the February 16 resolution date.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above $2.932
📉 February 13, 2026: 23.0pp drop
Price decreased from 57.0% to 34.0%
What happened: The 23.0 percentage point drop in the "US Gas prices up this week [^]? Outcome: Above $2.932" prediction market on February 13, 2026, was primarily driven by official government announcements and traditional news reports indicating a decline in gasoline and crude oil prices [^]. A key statement from the White House on February 13, 2026, attributed to President Trump, announced "President Trump Delivers Another Inflation Win," explicitly noting that "gasoline prices fell 3.2% last month" [^]. This communication, functioning as a high-priority social media-like announcement from an influential figure, directly reinforced the likelihood of lower gas prices and coincided with the market movement [^]. Concurrently, traditional news outlets reported on the broader context of falling crude oil prices due to oversupply concerns, easing US-Iran geopolitical tensions (following President Trump's comments on Thursday regarding ongoing negotiations), and potential OPEC+ production increases [^]. The U.S [^]. consumer price index report, also released on February 13, highlighted that overall inflation fell to a nearly five-year low in January, significantly driven by a 3.2% drop in gas prices [^]. This confluence of official economic data and influential statements suggesting lower gasoline prices acted as the primary catalyst for the prediction market's sharp decline [^]. Social media, specifically the White House's statement, served as a primary driver, directly disseminating and amplifying the news of falling gas prices [^].
📉 February 12, 2026: 58.0pp drop
Price decreased from 96.0% to 38.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 58.0 percentage point drop in the "US Gas prices up this week [^]? Above $2.932" prediction market on February 12, 2026, was likely the widespread reporting of a key inflation measure showing recent declines in gasoline prices [^]. On February 12, 2026, news outlets widely reported that "Gas prices fell 3.2% last month, the third drop in the past four months, and are down 7.5% from a year earlier" according to a January inflation report [^]. This traditional news, despite AAA reporting a slight increase to a national average of $2.944 on the same day, would have influenced market sentiment to anticipate a continued downward trend, thereby reducing the probability of prices remaining above $2.932 by the market's February 16 settlement date [^]. Social media activity from key figures or market structure factors were not identified as the primary drivers of this specific movement [^]. This news acted as a primary driver [^].
📈 February 10, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 75.0% to 84.0%
What happened: The 9.0 percentage point spike in the "US Gas prices up this week [^]? - Above $2.932" prediction market on February 10, 2026, was primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that significantly impacted crude oil prices [^]. Reports on February 10 indicated that crude oil prices, particularly West Texas Intermediate and Brent, saw considerable increases due to heightened tensions involving Iran and a resulting risk premium in global energy markets [^]. This coincided with a broader trend of rising U.S [^]. gas prices for the fourth consecutive week, reaching a national average around $2.90-$2.92 per gallon, driven also by seasonal refinery transitions to summer-blend gasoline [^]. There is no evidence from the search results to suggest social media activity was a primary driver for this specific price movement [^]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant in this instance [^].
Outcome: Above $2.999
📈 February 11, 2026: 19.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 20.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 19.0 percentage point spike in the "US Gas prices up this week?" prediction market on February 11, 2026, was a combination of traditional news and official forecasts [^]. The U.S [^]. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook, released on February 10, 2026, projected the U.S [^]. regular gasoline retail price to average $3.04 per gallon in the second quarter of 2026, directly exceeding the prediction market's "Above $2.999" outcome [^]. Concurrently, the Trump administration announced its plan, via the White House press secretary on "Tuesday" (February 10 or 11), to revoke the EPA's 2009 endangerment finding, a policy change anticipated to "increase gasoline prices" according to analyses [^]. Social media activity did not appear to be the primary driver; no direct posts from key figures like Elon Musk or Donald Trump explicitly predicting or causing this specific gas price movement were found around February 11, 2026 [^]. While the policy announcement itself could have been amplified on social media, its origin and direct impact stem from traditional governmental channels [^]. Therefore, social media was mostly irrelevant as a primary driver for this particular price spike [^].
Outcome: Above $2.902
📈 February 09, 2026: 66.0pp spike
Price increased from 28.0% to 94.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the "US Gas prices up this week?" prediction market price movement to "Above $2.902" on February 9, 2026, was the confirmed increase in U.S [^]. regular gasoline prices, as reported by official sources [^]. The U.S [^]. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced an average U.S [^]. regular gasoline price of $2.902 per gallon on February 9, 2026, directly matching the prediction market's threshold [^]. This upward trend was also supported by AAA data, which indicated the U.S [^]. current gas price at $2.90 on that date, reflecting a weekly increase of $0.03 [^]. While broader crude oil prices were influenced by geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, contributing to the overall market sentiment, social media activity was mostly noise and did not appear to be a primary catalyst for this specific price spike [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The provided page content, "US Gas prices up this week? Odds & Predictions 2026", is a market title and does not contain the detailed contract rules needed to determine the exact triggers for YES or NO resolution, key dates/deadlines, or any special settlement conditions. To summarize these rules, access to the full market contract specifications would be required.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $2.872 | $1.00 | $0.02 | 100% |
| Above $2.902 | $1.00 | $0.02 | 100% |
| Above $2.932 | $0.49 | $0.56 | 49% |
| Above $2.999 | $0.05 | $0.97 | 5% |
| Above $2.960 | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
Market Discussion
People are actively discussing and debating the recent increase in US gas prices, which have seen a rise for several consecutive weeks, with the national average ticking up slightly to around $2.94 per gallon as of mid-February 2026 [^]. Key viewpoints attribute these increases to seasonal trends as winter ends, disruptions from recent winter storms affecting crude production and refinery operations, and diminishing refinery capacity in some states like California [^]. Discussions also highlight the broader economic impact on affordability, with some experts predicting that while current increases are notable, oil price fluctuations and increased global production could lead to more stable or even lower prices in the longer term, a sentiment reflected in prediction markets betting on whether prices will exceed certain thresholds [^].
5. How Do RBOB Gasoline Futures Impact Retail Fuel Price Predictions?
| Net Price Change (Feb 9-13) | -$0.0735 per gallon [^] |
|---|---|
| Percentage Change (Feb 9-13) | 3.70% decline [^] |
| Closing Price (Feb 13, 2026) | $1.9120 per gallon [^] |
Front-month RBOB futures experienced a significant net price decline. The front-month RBOB Gasoline futures (March 2026 contract) saw considerable volatility between February 9 and February 13, 2026, ultimately declining by $0.0735 per gallon, a 3.70% decrease [^]. Initially, prices rallied, approaching $2.00 per gallon, supported by crude oil market strength and robust trading volumes [^]. However, a sharp reversal occurred mid-week, resulting in the largest single-day drop since early February, with the contract settling at $1.9159 per gallon on February 12 [^]. This downturn was likely influenced by factors such as potential bearish inventory data, technical resistance levels, and profit-taking [^].
Wholesale market trends suggest retail prices may still increase. This wholesale movement carries crucial implications for retail fuel price prediction markets, which typically resolve using the AAA national average and exhibit a significant wholesale-to-retail lag [^]. Retail prices tend to rise quickly when wholesale costs increase but fall more slowly, a phenomenon known as "rockets and feathers" pricing [^]. The substantial drop in RBOB futures observed on Thursday and Friday (February 12-13) occurred too late in the week for its full effect to be reflected at the national retail level by Monday, February 16, due to existing inventory and the time required for price pass-through [^]. Consequently, it is highly probable that the AAA national average on February 16 will still reflect the higher wholesale price environment from the first half of the preceding week, making a "Yes" resolution (indicating retail price increases) the more likely outcome for typical prediction markets [^].
Future RBOB contracts currently anticipate higher prices ahead. An additional analysis indicates the April 2026 RBOB contract is trading in contango at approximately $2.14 per gallon [^]. This implies that the market anticipates higher future prices, which could be attributed to factors such as seasonality, storage costs, or expected tightening of supply [^].
6. Did Presidents' Day Weekend 2026 Significantly Boost US Gas Prices?
| National Transaction Volume Increase | +24.0% (GasBuddy Pay platform data) [^] |
|---|---|
| National Average Fuel Price Increase | $0.06/gallon (GasBuddy Pay platform data) [^] |
| Regional Demand (Ski Resorts) | +45% in CO & UT (GasBuddy Pay platform data) [^] |
Presidents' Day weekend saw a substantial increase in gasoline demand. U.S. gasoline transaction volume averaged a significant 24.0% increase during the Presidents' Day weekend (February 12-15, 2026) compared to the prior week (February 5-8, 2026) [^]. This surge peaked at +38.5% on Friday, February 13, indicating considerable travel for the long weekend. Concurrently, the national average fuel price rose by $0.06 per gallon, from $3.42 to $3.48, suggesting that the heightened demand was already affecting prices at the pump [^].
Demand surges were concentrated in popular holiday destinations. States typically associated with winter sports like Colorado and Utah experienced a notable 45% increase in average transaction volume, while warm-weather states such as Florida and Arizona saw increases of approximately 39% [^]. An interesting observation was a slight 2.5% decrease in gallons per transaction, which may suggest drivers were 'topping off' their tanks due to rising prices or embarking on shorter road trips rather than filling completely [^].
This demand surge strongly indicates future gasoline price increases. The quantified increase in demand serves as a potent leading indicator for subsequent price movements. Factors contributing to this pressure include rapid inventory drawdown at retail stations, increased demand at wholesale terminals leading to higher 'rack' prices, and potential expansion of retail margins driven by holiday travelers [^]. Consequently, analysis strongly predicts that U.S. gas prices will likely trend upwards for the week ending February 16, 2026, building upon the price increases already observed during the holiday period [^].
7. Are PADD 2 & 3 Refinery Operations Affecting US Gasoline Prices?
| Widespread Unscheduled Outages | None reported in PADD 2 or PADD 3 [^] |
|---|---|
| Valero Ardmore Refinery Incident | Fire extinguished Feb 9, 2026, no confirmed full shutdown [^] |
| PADD 2 Refinery Utilization (Feb 6) | 95.2%, indicating robust operational performance [^] |
As of February 13, 2026, no major unscheduled refinery shutdowns have been confirmed in PADD 2 (Midwest) or PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) [^] . A localized incident occurred on February 9, 2026, when a fire broke out at the Valero Ardmore refinery in Oklahoma, part of PADD 2 [^]. The fire was successfully extinguished, and there has been no official confirmation of a full shutdown or prolonged operational impact on major units [^]. This refinery has a capacity of 90,000 barrels per day (bpd), which constitutes approximately 2% of the total PADD 2 capacity, suggesting that any impact would be localized rather than widespread across the region [^].
Regional refinery utilization remains strong, indicating stable operational performance. For the week ending February 6, PADD 2 refinery utilization was robust at 95.2%, demonstrating strong operational output [^]. PADD 3 maintained stable utilization at 91.8%, which aligns with planned seasonal maintenance schedules [^]. Given these stable operational conditions, the isolated Ardmore incident is unlikely to reverse the broader downward trend in gasoline prices, which are primarily driven by lower crude oil costs and consistent refinery operations. The upcoming EIA report, scheduled for release on February 19, 2026, will provide the first official data regarding the incident's operational impact [^].
8. What's the Outlook for U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices?
| Weekly Gasoline Inventory Build | +2.1 million barrels (MMbbl) [^] |
|---|---|
| Total Gasoline Inventories | 235.0 MMbbl [^] |
| Refinery Utilization Rate | 89.4% [^] |
U.S. gasoline inventories moderately increased, indicating immediate market sufficiency. For the week ending February 6, 2026, U.S. gasoline inventories experienced a moderate build of 2.1 million barrels (MMbbl), bringing the national total to 235.0 MMbbl [^]. This increase resulted from robust supply, with refinery utilization standing at a strong 89.4%, combined with seasonally weak demand, as finished motor gasoline product supplied fell to 8.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) [^]. This imbalance, where supply outpaces demand, creates a clear, short-term bearish environment for retail gasoline prices. Consequently, significant downward pressure on wholesale and retail prices is expected ahead of the February 16, 2026, resolution date, provided there are no major unforeseen supply disruptions [^].
Despite short-term builds, long-term projections show declining inventory levels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that 2026 will see the lowest absolute inventory levels for major transportation fuels, including gasoline, since the year 2000 [^]. However, the 'days of supply' for motor gasoline are expected to remain near historical averages [^]. This stability in "days of supply" is attributed to a forecast 1% year-over-year decline in U.S. motor gasoline consumption, which is anticipated to be 5% lower than 2019 pre-pandemic levels [^].
9. When Does EIA Collect Data for Weekly Fuel Price Reports?
| Weekly Data Collection Time | 8:00 a.m. local time on Monday (EIA Methodology) |
|---|---|
| Weekly Report Publication Day | Monday (EIA Methodology) |
| STEO February 2026 Data Cutoff | February 5, 2026 |
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) collects weekly retail fuel price data Monday mornings. The EIA gathers information for its Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices survey at 8:00 a.m. local time every Monday, not Friday, for reports published the same day. This methodology is designed to ensure that all retail fuel prices, including any adjustments made over the weekend or early Monday morning, are captured in the resolving figure. For example, the report published on Monday, February 16, 2026, will reflect prices as of 8:00 a.m. local time on that specific date.
This precise timing is vital for prediction markets. The exact Monday morning data collection is critical for prediction markets that use EIA figures as settlement benchmarks. The resolution of a market, such as 'US Gas prices up this week?' on February 16, 2026, depends entirely on the U.S. national average retail price for regular gasoline published by the EIA, compared to the previous week's report. Decentralized markets rely on an oracle to retrieve this specific official numerical value from the EIA website and securely post it to the blockchain, which triggers the smart contract's automated resolution.
Participants must consider all price drivers until Monday. Consequently, market participants must account for price drivers that occur up to Monday morning, rather than a Friday cutoff, making the market sensitive to last-minute factors and adjustments. It is crucial to differentiate this high-frequency weekly data from other EIA publications, such as the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which have distinct data cutoffs (e.g., February 5, 2026, for the February 2026 STEO) as they fulfill different analytical purposes.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key bullish catalysts that could push US gas prices higher include an escalation of geopolitical tensions, particularly between the United States and Iran, which could lead to an immediate spike in crude oil prices. Unexpected and widespread refinery outages in the U.S. due to unforeseen operational issues or severe weather could also significantly tighten gasoline supply. Additionally, unforecasted severe cold fronts impacting major U.S. refining regions or highly populated areas could disrupt refinery operations or temporarily boost demand for heating fuels, thereby increasing overall petroleum product prices [^].
Conversely, bearish catalysts that could lead to lower gas prices involve a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, such as a diplomatic breakthrough, which would remove existing risk premium from crude oil. While less likely in the short term, a significant emergency release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve could also increase supply and exert downward pressure. Rapid refinery restarts following any outages, or unforeseen, larger-than-expected inventory builds beyond what has already been largely priced in by recent reports, could also contribute to a downward correction in prices [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: February 16, 2026
- Expiration: March 18, 2026
- Closes: February 16, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Key bullish catalysts that could push US gas prices higher include an escalation of geopolitical tensions, particularly between the United States and Iran, which could lead to an immediate spike in crude oil prices.
- Trigger: Unexpected and widespread refinery outages in the U.S.
- Trigger: Due to unforeseen operational issues or severe weather could also significantly tighten gasoline supply.
- Trigger: Additionally, unforecasted severe cold fronts impacting major U.S.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 50 markets in this series
Outcomes: 19 resolved YES, 31 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXAAAGASW-26FEB09-2.925: NO (Feb 09, 2026)
- KXAAAGASW-26FEB09-2.905: NO (Feb 09, 2026)
- KXAAAGASW-26FEB09-2.875: YES (Feb 09, 2026)
- KXAAAGASW-26FEB02-2.881: NO (Feb 02, 2026)
- KXAAAGASW-26JAN26-2.795: YES (Jan 26, 2026)
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