How much solar capacity will be installed in the US in 2025?
1. Executive Verdict
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 50 GWdc | 24.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| At least 40 GWdc | 97.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| At least 60 GWdc | 6.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| At least 30 GWdc | 1.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| At least 70 GWdc | 3.0% | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Data
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 30 GWdc | $1.00 | $0.02 | 100% |
| At least 40 GWdc | $0.97 | $0.08 | 97% |
| At least 50 GWdc | $0.24 | $0.80 | 24% |
| At least 60 GWdc | $0.06 | $0.96 | 6% |
| At least 70 GWdc | $0.03 | $1.00 | 3% |
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