Gas prices in the US in Feb 2026?
1. Executive Verdict
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.10 | 9% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above 2.90 | 90% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above 3.30 | 1% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above 3.00 | 50% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above 3.20 | 4% | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Data
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.90 | $0.90 | $0.13 | 90% |
| Above 2.95 | $0.68 | $0.33 | 68% |
| Above 3.00 | $0.50 | $0.53 | 50% |
| Above 3.05 | $0.19 | $0.85 | 19% |
| Above 3.10 | $0.09 | $0.95 | 9% |
| Above 3.20 | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Above 3.15 | $0.03 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Above 3.30 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
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