Gas prices in the US in Feb 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect gas prices in the US to be above $2.90 in February 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Escalating geopolitical tensions drive higher crude oil prices.
- PADD 3 faces significant unplanned gasoline production capacity losses.
- US crude oil inventories show sharp draws, falling below average.
- OPEC+ members maintain production quotas, pausing planned increases.
- Significant drawdowns continue to be observed in US gasoline supplies.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | — | — | Insufficient data |
Current Context
Gas prices are fluctuating amidst seasonal and geopolitical pressures, with the national average for regular gasoline at $2.929 per gallon as of February 19, 2026, a slight decrease from $2.944 a week prior [^] , [^] . This figure remains below the $3.164 recorded a year ago [^]. Pump prices are broadly expected to begin their seasonal ascent soon, coinciding with the approach of spring and the production of summer-blend gasoline [^]. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has seen a significant increase, settling at $65.19 a barrel on February 19 and rising to $66.68 per barrel on February 20, reaching a six-month high primarily due to escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran [^], [^]. Recent data shows gasoline demand increased to 8.74 million barrels per day (b/d) last week, up from 8.30 million b/d the week prior, while domestic gasoline supply decreased to 255.8 million barrels from 259.1 million barrels [^]. U.S. crude oil inventories also decreased by 9 million barrels last week, totaling 419.8 million barrels, which is about 5% below the five-year average for this period [^]. State-specific prices vary widely, with California and Hawaii reporting the highest averages at $4.59 and $4.40 respectively, while Oklahoma and Arkansas recorded some of the lowest at $2.28 and $2.45 [^]. Natural gas prices have also experienced volatility, dropping sharply below $3 per MMBtu by February 16, influenced by warmer weather forecasts and increased supply [^], [^].
Policy shifts and OPEC+ decisions shape future price outlook, with the Trump administration implementing changes in energy policy, including the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) final rule on February 12 [^] . This rule repeals a 2009 finding that allowed regulation of vehicle greenhouse gas emissions, creating uncertainty for the oil and gas industry, with a 60-day window for legal challenges following its publication on February 18 [^]. The administration also expects to repeal stricter hazardous air pollutant regulations on coal-fired power plants [^]. OPEC+ countries have maintained current oil output levels through February and March 2026, pausing production increases due to seasonal factors, although some members are reportedly considering resuming supply increases in April, with their next meeting scheduled for March 1, 2026 [^], [^], [^]. Experts like AAA anticipate a seasonal rise in pump prices [^], while the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts the U.S. regular gasoline retail price to average $2.91 per gallon in 2026, a slight downward adjustment from earlier projections, expecting U.S. motor gasoline consumption to decline by about 1% due to improved fuel efficiency [^]. GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan suggests that while the national average is slowly increasing, this momentum could accelerate as refinery maintenance intensifies and the transition to summer gasoline occurs, though renewed OPEC+ production increases could temper this spring rally [^]. Consumers are also concerned about how gas prices, despite being lower than a year ago, fit into the broader context of rising costs for housing, groceries, electricity, and natural gas, noting that February 2026 prices are the lowest for this time of year since 2021 [^], [^], [^]. The ongoing debate around increased US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports tightening domestic natural gas supplies and the Trump administration’s "America First" energy policy further shape the discussion around future energy costs and environmental regulations [^], [^], [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market, which will resolve to YES if the national average gas price is at or above $3.15 on February 28, 2026, has exhibited a long-term downward trend. It opened at a 21.0% probability and currently trades at 12.0%, suggesting a sustained decrease in market confidence over time. However, this overarching trend was interrupted by a period of extreme volatility in early February 2026. The market saw a series of sharp spikes, moving from a low of 2.0% up to 24.0% between February 1st and February 4th. This abrupt upward re-pricing of risk appears to be a direct reaction to the escalating geopolitical tensions mentioned in the context, which drove WTI crude oil prices to a six-month high. Traders rapidly adjusted their forecasts to account for the increased likelihood that surging crude costs would translate into higher pump prices.
The total trading volume of over 60,000 contracts suggests healthy liquidity and trader engagement. The significant price spikes in early February were likely accompanied by a surge in volume, indicating strong conviction behind the trades made in response to the geopolitical news. Key price levels have been established by this activity. The 21.0% to 24.0% range has formed a clear resistance ceiling that the market has failed to sustain, while the 1.0% to 2.0% level has acted as a historical support floor. The current price of 12.0% represents a consolidation point, where the market has settled after retreating from its recent peak. The overall sentiment is cautiously bearish, reflecting that the current gas price is well below the $3.15 target. Yet, the chart's recent volatility demonstrates that the market remains highly sensitive to news affecting crude oil, acknowledging a tangible, albeit minority, probability of a significant price increase by the resolution date.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 2.95
📈 February 19, 2026: 21.0pp spike
Price increased from 71.0% to 92.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 21.0 percentage point spike in the "Gas prices in the US in Feb 2026 [^]? Above 2.95" prediction market on February 19, 2026, was likely the escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, coupled with significant drawdowns in U.S [^]. crude oil inventories [^]. News on February 19, 2026, highlighted a U.S [^]. military buildup in the Middle East and Iranian naval exercises in the critical Strait of Hormuz, which could severely disrupt global oil supply [^]. Concurrently, U.S [^]. crude oil inventories decreased by 9 million barrels, falling 5% below the five-year average, while gasoline demand rose, leading to an increase in WTI and Brent crude oil prices that day [^]. Social media activity did not appear to be a primary driver or contributing accelerant for this specific price movement [^].
📈 February 18, 2026: 25.0pp spike
Price increased from 46.0% to 71.0%
What happened: The 25.0 percentage point spike in the "Gas prices in the US in Feb 2026 [^]? Above 2.95" prediction market on February 18, 2026, was primarily driven by traditional news regarding a sharp draw in U.S [^]. oil inventories and escalating geopolitical tensions [^]. A report from the U.S [^]. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated that U.S [^]. crude oil inventories plummeted by 9 million barrels in the second week of February, starkly contrasting with market expectations of a 2 million barrel build [^]. Concurrently, escalating geopolitical risks, including Iran's naval exercises near the Strait of Hormuz and a U.S [^]. military build-up, contributed to market volatility and concerns about oil supply, pushing prices higher [^]. This news likely coincided with the prediction market movement, signaling tighter supply and potential for increased retail gas prices [^]. Social media activity from influential figures like Elon Musk or Donald Trump around this date was either unrelated or focused on predictions of lower gas prices, thus being irrelevant or contrary to the observed spike [^].
📉 February 17, 2026: 30.0pp drop
Price decreased from 76.0% to 46.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 30 percentage point drop in the "Gas prices in the US in Feb 2026 [^]? - Above 2.95" prediction market on February 17, 2026, was the release of traditional news and data indicating lower actual and forecasted gas prices [^]. On February 17, 2026, the AAA national average for regular gasoline was reported at $2.917 per gallon, which is below the $2.95 threshold of the prediction market [^]. This data was reinforced by earlier reports from February 13, which highlighted a global oil surplus, the first weekly decline in global oil prices for 2026, and President Trump's statements suggesting prolonged US-Iran negotiations, thereby easing immediate supply disruption concerns [^]. These factors, along with significant builds in US crude and gasoline inventories reported on February 11, collectively fostered expectations of lower gas prices, directly leading to the decline in the "Above 2.95" market [^]. Social media was not identified as a primary driver [^].
📈 February 16, 2026: 18.0pp spike
Price increased from 61.0% to 79.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 18.0 percentage point spike in the "Above 2.95" outcome for US gas prices in Feb 2026 on February 16, 2026, was likely the confluence of rising national average gasoline prices nearing the threshold and expert analysis forecasting further increases [^]. On that date, the national average price of gasoline had risen to $2.87/g (up 2.6 cents in the last week) according to GasBuddy, and $2.93/g according to AAA, bringing it significantly closer to the $2.95 prediction market strike price [^]. Furthermore, GasBuddy's Head of Petroleum Analysis, Patrick De Haan, stated that "upward momentum could accelerate in the coming weeks as refinery maintenance intensifies and the broader transition to summer gasoline begins," also noting geopolitical tensions as an "unpredictable variable" injecting risk [^]. This expert commentary, coupled with the real-time upward movement of prices towards the critical $2.95 mark, provided a strong fundamental basis for increased confidence in the "Above 2.95" outcome [^]. Social media activity from key figures like Elon Musk or Donald Trump did not appear to be a primary driver, with relevant posts either absent, unrelated to gas prices (Musk), or suggesting lower prices (Trump) around the time of the spike [^]. Therefore, traditional news and expert market commentary were the primary drivers [^].
Outcome: Above 2.90
📈 February 15, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 82.0% to 91.0%
What happened: The 9.0 percentage point spike in the "Gas prices in the US in Feb 2026 [^]? Above 2.90" prediction market on February 15, 2026, was primarily driven by traditional news regarding rising gasoline prices [^]. On February 13, 2026, AAA reported that the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline had risen to $2.94 on February 12, up from $2.89 a week prior, directly surpassing the prediction market's threshold of $2.90 [^]. This official data release from a credible source, preceding the market movement, made the "Above 2.90" outcome significantly more probable [^]. Social media activity from key figures or viral narratives did not appear to be a primary or contributing driver for this specific price spike [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided page content, the information required to summarize the YES/NO resolution triggers, key dates/deadlines, or any special settlement conditions is not available. The provided text only contains the market title ("Gas prices in the US this month? Odds & Predictions 2026") and its subcategory.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|
Market Discussion
Discussions surrounding gas prices in the US in February 2026 largely revolve around an upward trend attributed to seasonal factors and geopolitical tensions [^]. Many experts and news outlets point to the ongoing switch to more expensive summer-blend gasoline and increased demand as spring approaches, alongside elevated crude oil risk premiums due to US-Iran tensions and Ukrainian refinery strikes, as key drivers for rising prices [^]. Conversely, some analyses and prediction market discussions suggest that a global crude glut and decreasing geopolitical risk premiums could lead to lower-than-anticipated prices, with skepticism voiced about the likelihood of the national average reaching $3.00 [^].
5. How Do Strait of Hormuz Tensions Affect US Gasoline Prices?
| War Risk Premiums (SoH) | 0.35% to 0.5% of H&M value [^] |
|---|---|
| Crude Oil Geopolitical Risk Premium | $4 to $7 per barrel [^] |
| Daily Oil Transit (SoH) | 20-21 million barrels per day [^] |
Maritime insurance premiums for Strait of Hormuz transit have sharply increased. War risk insurance premiums for oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz have reached a significantly elevated range of 0.35% to 0.5% of a vessel's hull and machinery value as of February 2026 [^]. This surge translates into direct voyage costs ranging from approximately $200,000 to over $500,000 for a Very Large Crude Carrier, aligning with peaks observed during the 2025 Israel-Iran exchange and marking a substantial increase from previous baselines [^]. These heightened premiums are primarily driven by acute US-Iran geopolitical friction and the market's perception of increased conflict probability.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy activities demonstrate a strategic shift. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) significantly escalated its activities in February 2026, engaging in large-scale live-fire drills, deploying over 40 fast-attack craft, seizing two tankers, and conducting provocative encounters with US-flagged vessels [^]. These actions, which included the temporary closure of shipping lanes during drills and new parliamentary authority to restrict transit, signify a strategic shift towards overt power projection and area denial, rather than customary patrol patterns [^].
Elevated risk and insurance costs drive a significant crude oil premium. The combination of high insurance costs and intensified military risk has embedded a substantial geopolitical risk premium of $4 to $7 per barrel into global crude oil prices [^]. This crude oil premium is the primary driver of potential upside volatility in US gasoline prices, with an impact approximately 10 to 15 times greater than the direct cost of increased insurance [^]. The situation remains highly fluid, with further price shocks possible depending on any direct military confrontation or sustained disruption to the 20-21 million barrels per day of oil transiting this critical chokepoint [^].
6. How Are PADD 3 Unplanned Outages Affecting Gasoline Production?
| Unplanned FCC Capacity Offline | 175,000 bpd (IIR Energy, Feb 20, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Estimated Lost Gasoline Production | 70,000-87,500 bpd (IIR Energy data calculation) [^] |
| Unplanned Outage vs. 5-Yr Avg | 133% higher than average (IIR Energy, EIA historical data) [^] |
PADD 3 faces significant unplanned gasoline production capacity losses. As of February 20, 2026, the PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) region is experiencing significant unplanned outages specifically impacting its Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) units. These disruptions have resulted in 175,000 barrels per day (bpd) of FCC feed capacity being offline, which directly translates to an estimated loss of 70,000 to 87,500 bpd in gasoline production capacity. These unplanned outages are compounded by an ongoing planned maintenance season, with approximately 1 million bpd of crude capacity offline across the region [^].
Unplanned outages are significantly above the five-year average. The current level of unplanned outages represents a strikingly high 133% increase over the 5-year average (2021-2025) for the last week of February. This magnitude of disruption, combined with high overall refinery utilization rates which averaged approximately 93% in early 2026 [^], significantly tightens regional gasoline supply-demand balances. This situation is exerting notable upward pressure on Gulf Coast spot prices and is expected to reverse typical inventory builds ahead of the upcoming transition to summer-grade gasoline.
7. Will U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Continue to Draw Down?
| U.S. Crude Inventory Draw (Week Ending Feb 13) | 9.0 million barrels [^] |
|---|---|
| Cushing Hub Capacity Utilization | Approximately 31% [^] |
| Gasoline Price Prediction (Feb 28, 2026) | Exceeding $3.00 per gallon [^] |
U.S. crude inventories saw a sharp draw, pushing stocks below average. For the week ending February 13, 2026, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories experienced a significant drawdown of 9.0 million barrels, leading total stocks to be 5% below the five-year average [^]. This sharp decline followed a 1.071 million barrel build at the Cushing, OK hub the previous week, indicating market volatility [^]. The Cushing hub, a crucial storage point, is operating at a historically low 31% of its working capacity, reflecting underlying market tightness [^]. This unexpected nationwide draw highlights the increasing value of real-time physical monitoring over traditional forecasting models [^].
A moderate crude inventory draw is projected for the upcoming EIA report. For the upcoming EIA report covering the week ending February 20, 2026, a continued net drawdown in U.S. crude inventories is considered probable due to existing market tightness and low Cushing levels [^]. However, this projected reduction is expected to be more moderate, in the 2 to 4 million barrel range, rather than repeating the prior week's 9.0 million barrel figure. This moderation is influenced by factors such as statistical mean reversion and the anticipated onset of seasonal refinery maintenance, which typically reduces crude demand. Consequently, this data point is unlikely to signal a third consecutive week of crude inventory draws exceeding 7 million barrels.
Short-term bullish sentiment contrasts with the EIA's longer-term oversupply outlook. These crude oil inventory dynamics are directly impacting prediction markets for U.S. retail gasoline prices. Active platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood show a significant probability of average U.S. regular gasoline prices exceeding $3.00 per gallon by the end of February 2026, reflecting a bullish short-term sentiment driven by recent inventory draws [^]. This short-term market fervor, however, contrasts with the EIA's broader 2026 outlook, which projects global oil inventory builds and an average Brent crude price of $58 per barrel [^]. This suggests that the current tightness may be a temporary anomaly within a longer-term oversupply trend.
8. What is the Bomb Cyclone Probability in PADD 1 for Late February?
| ECMWF Bomb Cyclone Probability | No quantifiable probability assigned [^] |
|---|---|
| NOAA GFS Model Indication | No clear explosive cyclogenesis [^] |
| Significant Risk Threshold | >20-30% of ECMWF EPS members [^] |
ECMWF and GFS models show low bomb cyclone probability for PADD 1. As of February 20, 2026, for the period of February 24-28, 2026, there is no significant quantifiable probability of a bomb cyclone impacting the PADD 1 region [^]. Both the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System and NOAA GFS model guidance currently show no clear signal of explosive cyclogenesis for this timeframe [^]. Current model outputs are well below the 20-30% threshold typically considered for a significant risk of bomb cyclone formation [^].
A bomb cyclone in PADD 1 would significantly impact energy markets. Despite the current low probability, such an event would have substantial implications for energy markets due to the region's significant refining capacity [^]. Potential consequences include increased demand for heating fuels, disruptions to refinery operations, port closures, and challenges in ground transportation of refined products. The atmospheric pattern remains volatile following a sudden stratospheric warming event, which could create conditions for cyclogenesis later in the month, warranting continued vigilance [^].
9. What is WTI Crude Oil Gamma Squeeze Potential for February 2026?
| Open Interest & Gamma Data | Not publicly available for Feb 2026 WTI $68-$72 calls [^] |
|---|---|
| Current WTI Futures Price | Around $60-$65 per barrel (mid-February 2026) [^] |
| Gamma Squeeze Probability | Low without key data and a major bullish catalyst (Speculative) [^] |
Specific data for WTI call options are not publicly available. An assessment of total open interest and gamma exposure for WTI crude oil call options with a strike price between $68 and $72, set to expire on February 28, 2026, is hindered by the lack of publicly accessible, strike-level open interest (OI) and gamma exposure (GEX) data [^]. This lack of transparency is typical for long-dated and significantly out-of-the-money options. As of mid-February 2026, the front-month WTI futures contract is trading around $60-$65 per barrel, classifying the target $68-$72 strikes as significantly out-of-the-money [^]. Access to the essential data required for a definitive assessment typically necessitates subscriptions to specialized financial data providers [^].
A gamma squeeze is a self-reinforcing market phenomenon. It describes a feedback loop where market makers, hedging their short gamma positions from sold call options, are compelled to purchase the underlying asset as its price ascends towards the strike price. This reflexive buying can dramatically accelerate price increases, particularly as the expiration date approaches. For the February 28, 2026, expiration, gamma effects would be highly magnified if WTI prices were to approach the $68-$72 range. However, the primary condition for such an event, a significant and unobserved concentration of open interest in these out-of-the-money calls, remains unconfirmed.
The likelihood of a gamma squeeze is currently low. Consequently, given the absence of critical open interest data and the current significant price gap from the target strike zone, the ex-ante probability of a gamma squeeze by the February 28, 2026, expiration is considered low. While this scenario represents a high-impact, low-probability 'tail risk,' its occurrence would be entirely contingent on an unconfirmed concentration of options positioning and the emergence of a major bullish catalyst in the very near term. Such an event would directly impact the 'Gas prices in the US in Feb 2026?' prediction market, potentially causing a temporary, fundamental-disconnecting spike in gasoline prices due to the perfect alignment of expiration and resolution dates.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Several bullish catalysts could drive US gas prices higher by February 28, 2026. Ongoing escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly between the United States and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz, are contributing to higher crude oil prices, with a 2% rise observed on February 19, 2026, following statements from US Vice-President JD Vance [^]. Further supporting higher prices, the eight core OPEC+ members have paused planned production increases for January, February, and March 2026, maintaining current quotas to stabilize the market [^]. Significant drawdowns in US crude oil inventories (9.0 million barrels) and gasoline supplies (3.2 million barrels) for the week ending February 13, 2026, which placed crude inventories 5% below the five-year average, signal tighter market conditions [^]. Additionally, the seasonal transition to more expensive summer-blend gasoline is expected to begin in late February/early March, typically leading to higher pump prices [^].
Conversely, bearish catalysts suggest a potential for lower gas prices. While OPEC+ has paused increases for Q1 2026, the group is reportedly inclined to resume gradual oil production increases starting in April 2026 to meet summer demand, which could exert some downward pressure on prices in late February due to market anticipation [^]. Long-term forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) predict world oil output to rise by 2.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, and the EIA anticipates global oil production will outpace demand, leading to higher inventories and potentially lower prices later in the year [^]. The recovery of Kazakh oil output through February and an expected rebound in Venezuelan crude production could further add to global supply [^]. Furthermore, approximately 290 million barrels of Russian and Iranian crude are currently in floating storage, posing a bearish factor for global oil prices [^]. The EIA projects US regular retail gasoline prices to average around $2.90/gallon in 2026, a 6% decrease compared to 2025, suggesting a general downward trend [^].
The next key event before the market settlement on February 28, 2026, 4:59 PM UTC, is the release of the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report on February 25, 2026. This report will provide updated data on US crude oil and gasoline inventories, demand, and refinery activity for the week ending February 20, 2026, which is highly influential on market sentiment [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: February 28, 2026
- Expiration: March 07, 2026
- Closes: February 28, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Several bullish catalysts could drive US gas prices higher by February 28, 2026.
- Trigger: Ongoing escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly between the United States and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz, are contributing to higher crude oil prices, with a 2% rise observed on February 19, 2026, following statements from US Vice-President JD Vance [^] .
- Trigger: Further supporting higher prices, the eight core OPEC+ members have paused planned production increases for January, February, and March 2026, maintaining current quotas to stabilize the market [^] .
- Trigger: Significant drawdowns in US crude oil inventories (9.0 million barrels) and gasoline supplies (3.2 million barrels) for the week ending February 13, 2026, which placed crude inventories 5% below the five-year average, signal tighter market conditions [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 50 markets in this series
Outcomes: 22 resolved YES, 28 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXAAAGASM-26JAN31-2.87: NO (Jan 31, 2026)
- KXAAAGASM-26JAN31-2.95: NO (Jan 31, 2026)
- KXAAAGASM-26JAN31-2.70: YES (Jan 31, 2026)
- KXAAAGASM-26JAN31-2.75: YES (Jan 31, 2026)
- KXAAAGASM-26JAN31-2.80: YES (Jan 31, 2026)
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