Yes refers to: Up in 2025
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that there will be more tech layoffs in 2025 than in 2024, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- AI adoption drives 55,000 tech job cuts in 2025, a twelvefold increase.
- Non-AI ventures face severe capital drought due to AI funding dominance.
- H1 2025 job postings show significant shifts from non-AI hiring priorities.
- Q2 2025 macroeconomic indicators signal a second wave of tech layoffs.
- Post-pandemic overhiring correction combines with investor demands for profitability.
- Continued economic uncertainty and higher interest rates fuel workforce reductions.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Up in 2025 | 1% | 99% | Persistent economic pressures and a focus on efficiency are expected to drive further tech layoffs in 2025. |
Current Context
Recent tech layoffs signal ongoing industry restructuring, heavily influenced by AI. The current discourse is centered on the trajectory of tech layoffs in 2025 compared to 2024, examining their drivers and implications for 2026. In the most recent week, January 29 to February 5, 2026, the tech sector continued to experience significant workforce reductions. The week ending January 28, 2026, alone saw at least 18,072 U.S. tech sector employees laid off or scheduled for layoffs. Major companies announcing cuts included Workday (8.5% of workforce or ~1,750 employees), Outbrain (200 employees), Walmart (100 corporate jobs), Amazon (16,000 corporate and technology employees, plus over 700 Bay Area jobs), T-Mobile (393 employees), Ola Electric (~5% of workforce), and Dow (4,500 employees or ~12% of workforce). Many of these companies explicitly link layoffs to strategic restructuring, cost-cutting, and a pivot towards AI development and automation, rather than merely correcting post-pandemic over-hiring. Layoffs are expected to persist through at least Q1 2026, with Meta planning performance-based cuts affecting about 5% of its workforce by February 10, 2026.
Tech layoff data for 2024 and 2025 shows reporting variations. For 2025, Crunchbase News reported approximately 127,000 workers laid off from U.S.-based tech companies. Another tally indicated just under 123,000 tech employees were laid off across 257 companies. Globally, at least 244,851 tech sector employees were laid off in 2025, with U.S. companies contributing 170,630 positions (69.69%). In comparison, 2024 saw at least 95,667 workers at U.S.-based tech companies lose their jobs. However, another report states that by the end of 2024, over 152,000 tech employees across 551 companies were laid off. Based on U.S.-focused tallies, 2025 (around 123,000-127,000) generally recorded more tech layoffs than 2024 (around 95,667). Conversely, one source suggests 2024's end-of-year outcome (over 152,000) was worse than 2025's total (under 123,000), highlighting some variation in reporting. A key debate exists around whether AI is the genuine reason for layoffs or an excuse ("AI-washing"). While many tech giants cite AI and automation as drivers, some analysts suggest the direct impact of AI on 2025 layoffs was minor (less than 4.5% of total), potentially masking broader economic pressures or past over-hiring.
Experts predict continued layoffs as AI reshapes the future workforce. Alan Cohen, an analyst at RationalFX, anticipates tech layoffs will not cease abruptly in 2026, citing structural pressures, automation, strategic pivoting, and economic caution, while also expecting robust hiring in AI-related roles. Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, believes AI could eliminate up to 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs within five years. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy also noted that generative AI will change work processes, potentially requiring fewer people for some current jobs. The World Economic Forum predicted that while 85 million jobs might disappear by 2025 due to automation, 97 million new roles could emerge. Goldman Sachs research suggests AI's overall impact on the labor market is limited, but specific occupations like marketing, graphic design, customer service, and tech might be affected. Concerns are widespread that layoffs will persist in early 2026, with January 2026 alone seeing nearly 600,000 job cuts across various sectors, a 15% rise in layoff velocity. Roles most vulnerable to AI and automation include entry-level white-collar jobs, middle management, customer service, marketing, graphic design, and data-heavy support functions. To navigate these changes, professionals are advised to focus on adaptability, continuous learning, and developing skills in AI and related technologies. Longer-term, Synopsys plans to lay off around 2,000 employees in Fiscal Year 2026, and HP aims to reduce its headcount by 4,000 to 6,000 employees by Fiscal Year 2028, driven by AI adoption.
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market, "More tech layoffs in 2025 than in 2024?", exhibits a highly stable and sideways price trend, indicating a strong and unwavering market consensus. The price opened at an extremely high probability of 98% and has remained within a very narrow trading range of $0.93 to $0.99 throughout its history. This establishes a firm support level near $0.93 and resistance at the upper boundary of $0.99. The lack of any significant volatility or trend reversal suggests that from the outset, market participants have held a near-certain belief that the "YES" outcome would prevail. The market sentiment is unequivocally bullish on the prospect of 2025 layoffs exceeding 2024's total.
The provided context, which details layoffs in January and February of 2026, could not have influenced the price action of this market, as these events occurred after the market's resolution period in 2025. The chart's stability itself indicates that no news or developments during its active trading period were significant enough to cause a major price spike or drop. The substantial total volume of 263,583 contracts, when paired with the minimal price movement, is a powerful indicator of high market conviction. This suggests that a large amount of capital was traded to reinforce the high probability, with very little speculative pressure challenging the dominant forecast. The market effectively priced in the "YES" outcome early and maintained that conviction with significant trading volume until its conclusion.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided page content:
This market resolves to YES if the total number of tech layoffs in 2025 is greater than the total number of tech layoffs in 2024. Conversely, it resolves to NO if the number of tech layoffs in 2025 is less than or equal to the number in 2024. Resolution will occur after 2025 concludes and the relevant layoff data for both years becomes available. No specific settlement conditions or data sources are detailed in this content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Up in 2025 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
Market Discussion
Discussions and debates regarding "More tech layoffs in 2025 than in 2024" largely indicate that 2025 saw a higher number of job cuts . A prevalent viewpoint attributes this surge to companies strategically pivoting towards AI-first operating models, leading to significant restructuring and the replacement of routine roles with AI-driven automation . Additionally, ongoing economic pressures and a continuation of the correction from rapid over-hiring during the pandemic also contributed to the increased layoffs . Conversely, some earlier predictions and expert opinions suggested a potential stabilization or rebound in the tech job market in 2025 with more strategic hiring for AI-related roles, and criticism emerged that some companies might be "AI-washing" to justify layoffs .
4. What Methodologies Govern Tech Layoff Data Accuracy and Revisions?
| Layoffs.fyi 2024 Total | 152,922 employees |
|---|---|
| TrueUp.io 2024 Total | 237,000-238,000 people |
| Crunchbase News 2024 Total | 95,667 U.S. workers |
Diverse inclusion criteria lead to significant variations in reported tech layoff figures. Layoffs.fyi employs a broad, informal definition of "tech" companies, sourcing data from public media reports, and reported approximately 152,922 global layoffs in 2024. In contrast, Crunchbase News uses a narrower scope, focusing on U.S.-based, often venture-backed firms, which resulted in a substantially lower figure of about 95,667 U.S. tech workers laid off in 2024. TrueUp.io, with its broader aggregation from various sources, reported even higher numbers, impacting around 237,000-238,000 people for the same period. These discrepancies highlight that there is no single definitive source, as each tracker's methodology dictates its reported totals.
Tracking non-U.S. layoffs by U.S. firms presents substantial methodological challenges. While global trackers like Layoffs.fyi and TrueUp.io attempt to include worldwide layoffs, their data is limited by the inconsistent availability of public media reports for international operations. U.S. multinational enterprises employed 14.0 million workers abroad in 2022, indicating the vast scale of potential international workforce reductions. Corporate complexities, including diverse international labor laws, mandatory consultation processes, and varying financial reporting standards (U.S. GAAP versus IFRS), further complicate timely and comprehensive public disclosure of such events.
Tech layoff data is continuously revised, rendering annual totals dynamic and fluid. Trackers like Layoffs.fyi are dynamic databases, not static reports, meaning their annual totals are continuously back-revised, with the 'final' 2024 total remaining fluid well into 2025. Revisions are commonly triggered by lagging information, such as delayed media reports, regulatory filings, WARN notices, and SEC disclosures. This continuous revision process means there is no formal 'closing date' for a given year's data, and the precise resolution of prediction markets depends critically on the specific data snapshot captured at the time of resolution.
5. How Do Tech Firms Justify Layoffs Amid AI Investment in 2025?
| Aggregate AI vs. Macro Justification Ratio | 2.78:1 (Aggregate H1 2025 Earnings Calls) |
|---|---|
| Global AI Funding 2025 | $202 billion (PitchBook & NVCA) |
| U.S. Tech Layoffs 2025 | 127,000 workers (Layoffs.fyi) |
AI investment significantly outweighs macroeconomic headwinds in layoff justifications. The enterprise software sector in H1 2025 exhibited a pronounced narrative preference for attributing workforce reductions to strategic re-alignments towards AI capabilities, rather than purely macroeconomic pressures. An aggregate ratio of 2.78 to 1 (AI investment vs. macroeconomic factors) was identified in the earnings call transcripts of leading firms like Salesforce, Workday, Oracle, and SAP. This communication strategy serves to position these companies as proactive shapers of an AI-driven future, implicitly echoing the sentiment that the best way to predict the future is to create it .
AI integration drives a qualitative shift in layoff rationale. This dominant AI narrative signifies a transformation in the justification behind workforce reductions, evolving from conventional cost-cutting measures to strategic 're-skilling' and focused capital reallocation towards AI-centric roles. While 127,000 U.S. tech workers were laid off in 2025 , these actions were frequently framed as essential for acquiring specialized, high-cost AI talent, especially given that only 5% of companies achieve substantial financial returns from AI initiatives . Concurrently, the sector witnessed significant global AI funding, totaling $202 billion in 2025, underscoring intense strategic investment amidst workforce adjustments .
Macroeconomic factors contextualized AI pivot; rehiring for new roles expected. Despite the strong emphasis on AI investment, macroeconomic factors such as a strong US dollar, elevated inflation, and geopolitical instability were also cited as contributing elements . These were often presented as the environmental context necessitating the strategic pivot to AI. Industry predictions suggest that 50% of companies may rehire staff for similar functions by 2027, possibly under new job titles, indicating a cyclical trend where current workforce adjustments create opportunities for future AI-focused positions . This dual dynamic implies that 2025 could see a similar, or potentially even higher, total number of layoffs compared to 2024, but driven by a fundamentally different, AI-centric rationale.
6. How Will Venture Capital Contraction Impact Tech Layoffs in H2 2025?
| AI Share of VC Capital | 65.6% in 2025 (up from 47.2% in 2024) |
|---|---|
| Non-AI Capital Decline (Projected) | -40.1% YoY from 2024 to 2025 (Projection) |
| Total Deal Volume Decline (Projected) | -29.2% YoY from 2024 to 2025 (Projection) |
AI dominates venture capital funding, creating a severe non-AI capital drought. In Q1-Q2 2025, the venture capital landscape experienced an unprecedented concentration of capital in Artificial Intelligence, with AI-related companies securing 65.6% of all VC deal value, a substantial increase from 47.2% in 2024. This phenomenon created a bifurcated market where capital for non-AI startups is estimated to have plummeted by 40.1% year-over-year from Q1-Q2 2024 to Q1-Q2 2025. Overall, total deal volume is projected to decrease by 29.2%. This "flight to quality" and focus on mega-rounds in AI has resulted in a severe capital drought for the majority of the startup ecosystem, particularly affecting Series B, C, and D rounds outside the AI domain.
Funding shortfalls in early 2025 will drive significant Q3/Q4 layoffs. The direct correlation between mid-stage venture funding and subsequent tech layoffs stems from startups' cash runway. Companies unable to secure follow-on funding in Q1-Q2 2025 are likely to face critical cash crunches by Q3 2025. To avoid insolvency, these companies will be forced to implement significant workforce reductions of 20-50%. Coupled with a challenging exit environment and high legacy cost structures, this dynamic strongly indicates that tech layoffs in 2025 are predicted to exceed those in 2024, with a significant acceleration anticipated in late Q3 and Q4 2025.
Generative AI and M&A trends will intensify the impending layoff wave. Beyond immediate funding shortfalls, additional factors are poised to exacerbate the layoff trend. The increased productivity offered by Generative AI tools enables companies, even well-funded ones, to achieve similar output with fewer employees. Furthermore, a strategic shift towards fewer, larger M&A deals, particularly within AI-driven sectors, frequently leads to significant redundancies and layoffs post-acquisition. These combined pressures suggest a multi-faceted and intense period for tech employment in the latter half of 2025.
7. Do Non-AI Hiring Trends Signal Impending 2025 Tech Layoffs?
H1 2025 job postings show significant hiring priority shifts. Analysis of job posting data for the first half of 2025 reveals a strategic reallocation of hiring priorities among the top 25 U.S. tech employers compared to H1 2024. While commercial sales roles saw a notable 5% increase, indicating a strong focus on revenue generation, traditional non-AI software development and product management roles experienced significant contractions of 21.0% and 25.0% respectively. This pattern suggests a deliberate "shadow hiring freeze" on non-essential functions, which historically serves as a leading indicator for targeted layoffs and restructuring events .
AI adoption fuels a strategic shift in hiring priorities. This observed shift is not indicative of a general economic downturn, but rather a strategic transformation driven by the rapid advancement and enterprise adoption of generative AI. Companies are aggressively investing in AI, cloud, and cybersecurity talent, creating an acute talent shortage in these specialized areas. This necessitates budget reallocations and hiring freezes in non-core functions to fund the acquisition of critical AI skills and to pivot towards new, AI-centric business models .
Deep freeze signals future workforce reductions and restructuring. The deep freeze in non-strategic tech roles observed in H1 2025 is a robust predictive signal for substantial, targeted workforce reductions in late 2025 or early 2026. Anticipated layoffs will likely stem from the redundancy of roles, a growing skills mismatch within the existing workforce, and efficiency gains facilitated by AI tools. This structural shift is expected to cause 2025 tech layoff totals to equal or surpass those recorded in 2024, as companies realign resources with new strategic priorities .
8. Do Q2 2025 Macro Indicators Signal New Tech Layoffs?
| ISM Services PMI (May 2025) | 49.9% |
|---|---|
| Q2 2025 ISM Services PMI Average | 50.8% |
| Annual Average ISM Services PMI (2025) | 51.7% |
Q2 2025 macroeconomic indicators suggest a second wave of tech layoffs. The second quarter of 2025 revealed a concerning macroeconomic picture, indicating a potential second wave of tech sector layoffs distinct from earlier AI-driven restructuring efforts. The ISM Services PMI, a key forward-looking indicator, averaged a tepid 50.8% over the quarter and critically dipped into contractionary territory at 49.9% in May for the first time in nearly a year. While April registered 51.6% and June saw a slight rebound to 50.8%, the overall quarterly performance underscored a period of near-stagnation. This "stall speed" range, typically between 50.0% and 52.0%, is concerning for the high-growth tech sector, often leading to hiring freezes and project de-funding due to insufficient economic expansion. The 2025 annual average of 51.7% was the third-lowest on record, surpassed only by 2008 and 2009.
Deterioration in loan demand signals reduced corporate investment and confidence. Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) reported a significant demand-driven contraction in business borrowing, with a net share of 20%-50% of banks reporting weaker demand for Commercial & Industrial (C&I) loans. This decline was attributed to decreased customer investment, reduced merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, and lower inventory financing needs. Such a proactive pullback by corporations indicates declining business confidence and a "capital strike," directly impacting the business-to-business (B2B) tech sector's sales pipeline. This demand-side investment strike is a powerful leading indicator, suggesting that corporate de-risking decisions made in Q2 2025 will translate into lower revenues for tech providers by Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, inevitably necessitating defensive cost-cutting measures, including layoffs. This combination of economic stagnation and reduced corporate investment appetite forms a tangible catalyst for future layoffs in late 2025 and 2026.
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The prediction market for 'More tech layoffs in 2025 than in 2024?' faces significant influences that could push the 'YES' outcome higher. A major driver is the accelerating adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI), with 55,000 job cuts in 2025 explicitly attributed to AI, marking a twelvefold increase from two years prior. Roles in areas like customer support and software development are particularly susceptible to automation. Continued economic uncertainty, higher interest rates in late 2024 and early 2025, and a correction from post-pandemic overhiring also contribute to a climate favoring workforce reductions. Investor expectations have shifted towards profitability over rapid growth, pressuring companies to cut costs, while industry consolidation and government efficiency initiatives led to further job eliminations.
Conversely, several factors could lead to fewer tech layoffs in 2025, favoring the 'NO' outcome. Global IT spending is projected to reach $5.74 trillion in 2025, a 9.3% increase, fueled by substantial investments in AI, cloud computing, and cybersecurity, signaling overall market growth. Central banks began reducing interest rates in late 2024, continuing into 2025, which typically lowers borrowing costs and encourages investment and hiring. The tech sector is also transitioning to a focus on 'efficient growth,' and AI is expected to create new job roles, with the World Economic Forum anticipating 170 million new jobs globally between 2025 and 2030. Furthermore, a rise in venture capital funding for AI and stabilizing inflation rates are reducing cost pressures on companies, potentially mitigating the need for extensive layoffs.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 31, 2026
- Closes: March 01, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The prediction market for 'More tech layoffs in 2025 than in 2024?' faces significant influences that could push the 'YES' outcome higher.
- Trigger: A major driver is the accelerating adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI), with 55,000 job cuts in 2025 explicitly attributed to AI, marking a twelvefold increase from two years prior.
- Trigger: Roles in areas like customer support and software development are particularly susceptible to automation [^] .
- Trigger: Continued economic uncertainty, higher interest rates in late 2024 and early 2025, and a correction from post-pandemic overhiring also contribute to a climate favoring workforce reductions.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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