Will there be a Trump economic boom?
Yes refers to: Above 5%
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect growth above 5% during the Trump Presidency, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Market currently indicates a 59% likelihood of a Trump economic boom.
- Octagon's internal model also forecasts a 59% probability.
- No implied probability gap between Octagon model and current market.
- Key research into economic drivers encountered multiple system errors.
- Detailed catalyst analysis for this prediction market remains unavailable.
- The prediction market for this event will close in January 2029.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5% | 58.0% | 59.0% | Proposed tax cuts and deregulation could significantly stimulate economic growth above 5%. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
Based on the provided chart data, the prediction market for a "Trump economic boom" has been in a clear and sustained downtrend. The market opened with a relatively high perceived probability of 68.0%, but has since declined by 10 percentage points to its current price of 58.0%. The price has been contained within a range of $0.57 on the low end and $0.72 on the high end. These levels appear to act as technical support and resistance, respectively. The current price is hovering just above the all-time low, suggesting that bearish sentiment is dominant and the market is testing a critical support level.
The steady price decline reflects a gradual erosion of confidence among market participants over the 521 data points available. As no specific news or external context has been provided, it is not possible to attribute this downward pressure to any single event or development. The price action does not show sharp, sudden drops that would indicate a reaction to a specific catalyst; rather, it portrays a slow, consistent shift in collective belief. The total volume of 13,161 contracts suggests a moderate level of activity over the market's lifetime. However, the sample data showing periods of zero volume indicates that liquidity may be inconsistent. Overall, the chart indicates that market sentiment has turned increasingly skeptical about the prospect of an economic boom during the resolution period.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
I am unable to extract the requested information from the provided page content. The content "Will there be a Trump economic boom? Odds & Predictions [Markets] [Live] [Ideas] [API]" only provides a market title and navigation links, without any details regarding resolution triggers, key dates, or settlement conditions.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5% | $0.58 | $0.43 | 58% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. Who are the leading candidates for Treasury Secret
Error researching question:
502
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If you are the site owner, refer to Render’s documentation for troubleshooting.
5. Why Did the Research Encounter a 'Bad Gateway' Error?
| Error Type | 502 Bad Gateway |
|---|---|
| Request ID | 9d1f98b2be36fca1-IAD |
| Service Status | Currently unavailable |
Research was halted due to a server connectivity error. The process to identify Federal Reserve Board of Governors seats with terms expiring in 2025-2026 and to assess the monetary policy leanings of potential replacements, as suggested by conservative economic circles, could not be completed. This was due to an encountered '502 Bad Gateway' error during the attempted data extraction.
The '502 Bad Gateway' error indicates a server communication issue. Specifically, the server, which was functioning as a gateway or proxy, received an invalid response from an upstream server it attempted to access. Consequently, the service became unavailable, and no actual research findings could be extracted from the intended source.
This server error is typically temporary, with standard remedies. Such '502 Bad Gateway' errors are often transient, and users are generally advised to attempt their request again after a few minutes. For site owners, troubleshooting involves consulting the documentation for the hosting platform, identified as Render.com in this instance, for specific steps such as reviewing server logs or assessing service health.
6. Why Did the Research Encounter a Server Error?
| Error Status | 502 Bad Gateway |
|---|---|
| Request ID | 9d1f98da9e98fca1-IAD |
| Resolution Hint | Try again in a few minutes or consult Render's documentation |
Research retrieval was unsuccessful due to a "502 Bad Gateway" server error. The research process encountered a "502 Bad Gateway" error, which indicates that the server acting as a gateway or proxy received an invalid response from an upstream server. This server-side error typically prevents the successful retrieval of requested content, leading to no specific research findings, data points, or analytical summaries being extracted from the provided source.
The system could not access content, preventing research fulfillment for the request. Consequently, the system was unable to access the content necessary to fulfill the request. Users encountering this error are generally advised to try again shortly, as it might be a temporary network or server issue. Site owners are directed to consult Render's troubleshooting documentation for further assistance.
7. Was the research able to find relevant information?
| Research Status | Failed to retrieve data |
|---|---|
| Error Type | 502 Bad Gateway |
| Request ID | 9d1f98d6c9a1fca1-IAD |
Research could not retrieve CapEx plans due to system error. The investigation into the publicly stated 2025-2026 capital expenditure plans of major US shale producers, including ExxonMobil Permian, Pioneer, and Diamondback, was unsuccessful. This inability to obtain findings or specific data points means no information could be extracted regarding how these plans reflect the tension between potential deregulation responses and shareholder demands for capital discipline and dividend payouts.
A '502 Bad Gateway' error prevented data extraction. The research request encountered a '502 Bad Gateway' error, which indicates that the service responsible for fulfilling the request was temporarily unavailable. Consequently, no specific findings or data related to the original inquiry could be retrieved. The system recommends reattempting the request in a few minutes to resolve this temporary issue. For troubleshooting purposes, the associated request ID was 9d1f98d6c9a1fca1-IAD.
8. Research Unavailable: What Caused the Bad Gateway Error?
| Research Status | Failed to retrieve (502 Bad Gateway) |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Bad Gateway |
| Service Availability | Currently unavailable |
Research findings were inaccessible due to a server gateway error. The requested research findings, which sought to compare immediate post-election changes in the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index from November 2016-February 2017 to current small business balance sheet health, could not be extracted. This inability to retrieve information resulted from a '502 Bad Gateway' error. This server status code indicates that the server acting as a gateway or proxy received an invalid response from an upstream server it accessed in an attempt to fulfill the request. Consequently, no content from the research could be processed or summarized.
Specific research details are unavailable; the issue may be temporary. Therefore, it is impossible to provide specific data points, a summary of key findings, or any other information based on the requested research. The service is currently unavailable, and users are advised to try again in a few minutes. This issue may be temporary, but if it persists, it could indicate a more significant problem with the source or the gateway server itself. No further details regarding the original research question can be furnished without access to the actual content.
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis not available.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: February 01, 2029
- Closes: January 26, 2029
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis not available.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 1 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- GDPUSMAX-22-P5: NO (Jan 26, 2023)
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