Recession this year?

Based on the provided chart summary for market KXRECSSNBER-26, the price action has been remarkably stable and reflects a strong market consensus. The overall trend is sideways, with the price trading within an exceptionally narrow 6-cent range, from a low of $0.18 to a high of $0.24. Over the course of 647 data points, the market began at $0.23 and is currently trading at the exact same level, indicating no net change in perceived probability over its entire history. The key support level is clearly established at $0.18, while resistance is found at $0.24. These boundaries have effectively contained all price movement, suggesting that traders have consistently bought near the low end of the range and sold near the high end.

The provided context includes no specific news or economic developments, making it impossible to attribute the minor fluctuations between support and resistance to any particular external catalyst. The price movements are not significant spikes or drops but rather small oscillations within a well-defined channel. The total traded volume of 136,511 contracts indicates a reasonably liquid market with significant participant interest over time. However, the stability of the price in the face of this volume suggests that buying and selling pressure have remained evenly matched. This pattern implies that new information and trading activity have been absorbed by the market without fundamentally altering the collective outlook.

Overall, the chart suggests a deeply entrenched market sentiment that has consistently priced the probability of a recession in 2026 at a low but non-trivial level, hovering around 18% to 24%. The lack of a breakout in either direction points to a lack of conviction that the fundamental odds have changed. The current price of $0.23 places the market near the top of its historical range, but until it breaks past the $0.24 resistance level, the prevailing sentiment remains one of stability and consensus.