Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect the peak US National Debt under the Trump administration before 2029 to be $40 trillion, seeing no actionable edge.

1. Executive Verdict

  • The 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' adds $3.1 trillion to federal deficit.
  • Extension of 2017 tax cuts adds trillions to cumulative debt.
  • New tariffs recently boosted customs duties above CBO projections.
  • Large infrastructure projects or defense spending would increase debt.
  • No significant non-recurring federal inflows projected for FY2027-2028.
  • Market expects policy rates to ease by December 2027.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
$40 trillion 99.0% 98.0% Sustained government spending and potential future tax cuts contribute to this debt level.
$50 trillion 56.0% 75.8% A significant economic downturn or large-scale fiscal stimulus could lead to this higher debt.
$45 trillion 87.0% 83.5% Ongoing budget deficits and moderate spending increases would push debt to this level.

Current Context

US national debt surges, prompting urgent economic reviews. The U.S. national debt currently exceeds $38 trillion and is projected to reach $39 trillion by approximately April 5, 2026, increasing by an average of $6.43 billion per day [^]. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is scheduled to release its initial annual review of U.S. economic policies under the Trump administration on February 25, 2026, assessing fiscal, trade, and current account deficits [^]. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently projected deficits to total $26 trillion over the Fiscal Year (FY) 2026-2036 period, with debt reaching 120% of GDP by 2036, incorporating the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" and Trump administration tariffs into its new February 2026 baseline [^], [^]. Discussions are also occurring regarding Bitcoin's potential role in addressing the debt crisis [^], and recent reports note the U.S. paid about $160 million of nearly $4 billion owed to the United Nations, with the national debt cited at $37 trillion at the time [^].
The Trump administration significantly increased national debt, driven by tax cuts. During President Trump's four years in office, the U.S. gross national debt grew by $7.8 trillion, from $19.95 trillion to $27.75 trillion [^], [^], [^], [^]. By the end of 2020, federal debt held by the public reached approximately 100% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with the gross debt as a percentage of GDP nearing 128% at the end of his tenure [^], [^]. Major factors contributing to this increase include the 2017 tax cuts, estimated to add about $1.9 trillion to deficits over 11 years, and COVID-19 relief legislation like the CARES Act, accounting for $1.9 trillion in ten-year borrowing [^], [^], [^]. The growth in the annual deficit under Trump ranks as the third-biggest increase, relative to the size of the economy, of any U.S. presidential administration [^]. Economists widely agree that federal finances under the Trump administration were already in a "dire" state even before the pandemic, despite a strong economy [^], [^]. Phillip Swagel, director of the CBO in January 2020, noted that "not since World War II has the country seen deficits during times of low unemployment that are as large as those that we project" [^].
Experts warn debt trajectory is unsustainable, urging fiscal action. Budget watchdogs, such as the National Taxpayers Union, caution that the current debt trajectory is unsustainable, posing both national security and economic problems [^]. Analysts also highlight that debt-to-GDP levels approaching 120% could significantly reduce fiscal flexibility during future economic downturns [^]. Upcoming events include the IMF's annual review of U.S. economic policies on February 25, 2026 [^], and the projected milestone of the U.S. national debt reaching $39 trillion by April 5, 2026 [^]. Many provisions of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," including reduced taxes on tips, overtime, and senior income, are set to expire after 2028, with the higher State and Local Tax (SALT) Deduction cap expiring after 2029, prompting debates over their extension or expiration [^]. Organizations like the Committee for Economic Development (CED) are emphasizing the urgent need for Congress to establish a bipartisan fiscal commission to address the national debt [^]. Common questions and concerns revolve around identifying responsibility for debt growth, often citing the significant increase during the Trump administration [^], [^]. Debates persist regarding the effectiveness of Trump-era tariffs, with analyses suggesting they generated relatively small revenue compared to the overall debt [^]. Concerns about the long-term sustainability of U.S. federal finances are consistently raised, driven by rising interest payments, aging demographics, and growing healthcare costs [^], [^]. The impact of the 2017 tax cuts remains a central point of debate concerning their role in increasing deficits and the national debt [^], [^], [^]. Some discussions explore unconventional solutions to the debt crisis, such as promoting longer working careers or leveraging artificial intelligence and automation [^].

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This market exhibits a highly stable, sideways price trend, trading within an extremely narrow band of 96% to 99%. The price has established a firm support level at 96% and a resistance ceiling at 99%, where it has spent the vast majority of its time since its inception. This price action reflects an overwhelming and consistent market sentiment that a 'YES' resolution is a near certainty. The most significant price movement was a brief dip to the 96% support level, but this was temporary as the price quickly rebounded to its prevailing 99% level.
The market's unwavering conviction is strongly reinforced by the provided economic context. The fundamental data, such as the US national debt increasing by over $6 billion per day and the February 2026 CBO projections forecasting tens of trillions in new deficits over the next decade, underpins the high probability. These reports likely prevented any significant selling pressure and affirmed the market's belief that the debt will continue its rapid ascent, solidifying the price at the top of its range. The minor dip to 96% appears to be an anomalous or brief moment of doubt that was quickly erased as foundational economic data supported the 'YES' outcome.
The total trading volume of 509 contracts is relatively low, which is characteristic of a market with a deeply entrenched consensus. Low volume in a high-priced, stable market suggests a lack of sellers and high conviction among participants, as there is little disagreement to facilitate active trading. The chart, therefore, illustrates a market that is not speculating on the outcome but is simply reflecting the widely accepted reality of fiscal projections. The market sentiment is one of extreme confidence in a 'YES' resolution, with virtually no price action or volume to suggest an alternative outcome is considered plausible.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 January 23, 2026: 8.0pp spike

Price increased from 48.0% to 56.0%

Outcome: $50 trillion

What happened: The 8.0 percentage point spike in the "Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration" prediction market for the "$50 trillion" outcome on January 23, 2026, was primarily driven by traditional news and announcements detailing the rapid acceleration of the national debt [^]. Reports just days before, on January 20, 2026, highlighted that the US national debt had officially reached $38.5 trillion and was increasing at approximately $8 billion per day, reflecting a $2.25 trillion rise during Trump's initial year back in office [^]. This rapid accumulation, particularly a jump from $37 trillion to $38 trillion in just two months, set a pace described as the fastest outside the pandemic era [^]. Subsequent news, such as Forbes articles on January 26 and 29, 2026, explicitly projected that the national debt "could top $50 trillion by 2030 at current growth rates," indicating that this specific forecast was gaining significant traction among analysts around the time of the market movement [^]. Social media was mostly noise or irrelevant in this specific movement, as no direct posts from key figures on January 23, 2026, explicitly correlating to the $50 trillion outcome were found, and previous criticisms by Elon Musk regarding debt growth occurred much earlier in June 2025 [^]. Donald Trump's comments at the World Economic Forum on January 21, 2026, focused on debt reduction through economic growth and tariffs, which might have been perceived as insufficient given the accelerating debt figures, but did not directly project a $50 trillion peak [^]. Therefore, the primary driver was traditional news and financial reporting of escalating debt figures and expert projections [^].

4. Market Data

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Contract Snapshot

The provided page content indicates a market concerning the "Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration" with a timeframe extending to 2028. Specific triggers for a YES or NO resolution, such as exact debt levels or data sources, are not detailed in this content. The market's end date or settlement is referenced as December 31, 2028. No special settlement conditions are specified.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Implied probability
$40 trillion $0.99 $0.03 99%
$45 trillion $0.87 $0.20 87%
$50 trillion $0.56 $0.49 56%

Market Discussion

Discussions surrounding "Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration" generally coalesce around concerns about a significant increase in the national debt during his tenure, largely attributed to tax cuts, increased spending (including COVID relief), and pre-existing budgetary trends [^]. Experts and news commentary frequently highlight the unsustainability of this trajectory, warning of rising interest payments crowding out other government spending and posing long-term economic risks [^]. Prediction markets reflect these anxieties, with high probabilities for the federal debt reaching or exceeding $40 trillion, $45 trillion, and even $50 trillion by 2028, while expressing skepticism about the effectiveness of proposed debt-reduction strategies like tariff dividends [^].

5. What Is the Projected Fiscal Impact of the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act'?

Projected 10-Year Deficit Increase$3.1 trillion (2026-2035)
Baseline Debt-to-GDP (2036)120% of GDP
Revised Debt-to-GDP (Post-OBBBA, 2036)132% of GDP
The 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' (OBBBA) is projected to increase the federal deficit by an estimated $3.1 trillion over the 2026-2035 fiscal years. This projection, based on an analysis utilizing the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) February 2026 economic baseline and scoring methodologies,, attributes $2.5 trillion to direct revenue loss and spending changes. An additional $600 billion is projected for associated debt service costs, contributing to the overall deficit impact of the Act, which was enacted in July 2025.
Debt projections significantly worsen due to OBBBA. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) had previously projected debt held by the public to rise from 101% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in early 2026 to 120% by 2036. However, the OBBBA's fiscal impact is now estimated to push debt held by the public to approximately 132% of GDP by 2036. This revised projection would establish a new historical record, surpassing the post-World War II peak.
Major tax reductions primarily drive the projected deficit increase. These include significant cuts to corporate and individual income tax rates, alongside the permanent extension of previously temporary tax provisions. The CBO's comprehensive scoring methodology employs microsimulation and macroeconomic models, incorporating budgetary feedback such as higher interest costs on accumulated debt to assess legislative impact against its current-law baseline.

6. Did U.S. Customs Duties Exceed CBO Projections Recently?

Actual Customs Receipts (Aug 2025 – Jan 2026)$177.40 billion [^]
Aggregate Deviation vs. CBO Projections+$5.58 billion (+3.25%) compared to CBO projections [^]
Projected Net Deficit Reduction (10 years)Approximately $3 trillion over ten years [^]
Actual U.S. customs duties receipts significantly exceeded CBO projections due to new tariffs. From August 2025 through January 2026, actual U.S. customs duties receipts totaled $177.40 billion. This figure surpassed the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) baseline projection of $171.82 billion by $5.58 billion, representing a 3.25% deviation [^]. This increase in revenue is a direct result of new, broad-based tariff policies. For example, the first four months of Fiscal Year 2026 (October 2025–January 2026) generated $119 billion in receipts, marking an approximate $90 billion (318-322%) increase compared to the same period in the prior fiscal year [^].
Monthly trends revealed varied performance, impacting long-term fiscal projections. Despite the overall positive deviation, a closer look at monthly data shows nuanced trends; while late Fiscal Year 2025 saw substantial overperformance, early Fiscal Year 2026 months consistently fell short of the CBO's aggressive monthly average needed to meet its $418 billion annual target [^]. This structural increase in customs duties holds profound implications for the U.S. fiscal outlook and national debt projections. New tariff policies are estimated to generate $3 to $4 trillion in gross revenue over a ten-year period, leading to a net deficit reduction of approximately $3 trillion after accounting for secondary economic effects [^]. This substantial new revenue stream supports the idea that the national debt could peak sooner than previously anticipated, though its sustainability is subject to economic conditions, policy stability, and spending decisions [^].

7. How Do U.S. Fiscal Projections Impact Future Interest Rates?

Implied Fed Funds Rate (Dec 2026)3.50% (CME Group, Feb 20, 2026) [^]
Implied Fed Funds Rate (Dec 2027)3.25% (CME Group, Feb 20, 2026) [^]
Projected U.S. National Debt to GDP107% by 2029 [^]
The market expects policy rates to ease by December 2027. As of February 20, 2026, the Federal Funds futures market implies a policy rate of approximately 3.50% for December 2026, with a slight easing to 3.25% for December 2027. This pricing suggests that the market anticipates the Federal Reserve will have completed its tightening cycle, with policy normalizing in response to a steadying economy.
An IMF review could prompt a hawkish shift in the forward curve. This outlook, however, could significantly shift following an anticipated U.S. economic policy review by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on February 25, 2026. A strong warning from the IMF regarding U.S. fiscal sustainability, particularly concerning the national debt projected to reach 107% of GDP by 2029 [^], would likely lead to a hawkish repricing of the forward curve. This would emphasize structural fiscal constraints over cyclical inflation dynamics, increasing the risk of 'fiscal dominance' where the Federal Reserve's policy options are constrained by the government's financing needs and rising interest costs [^].
Escalating national debt threatens the Federal Reserve's policy independence. The growing concern over national debt highlights several critical implications for monetary policy. It could erode the Fed's policy space as federal interest costs consume a larger budget share, potentially leading to political pressure for lower rates irrespective of inflation. Furthermore, in a high-debt environment, inflation might become an implicit fiscal tool, prompting markets to demand higher inflation risk premiums. The Fed's ability to maintain credibility and effectively combat inflation could be challenged, potentially delaying the return to the 2% inflation target until as late as 2030 [^].

8. Are $250 Billion Non-Recurring Federal Inflows Projected for FY2027-2028?

$250 Billion Inflow ThresholdNot met for FY2027-FY2028 (Executive Summary) [^]
Projected 2027 Spectrum Auction Revenue$6.0 billion (Budget Proposal) [^]
Largest Historical SPR Sale Revenue$14.4 billion (2022 Release) [^]
No large federal inflows are scheduled for FY2027 or FY2028. Analysis indicates that no currently scheduled or officially projected non-recurring federal inflow of $250 billion or more is anticipated for Fiscal Year 2027 or FY2028. A thorough review of federal budget baselines from entities like the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) reveals no such line items. An inflow of this magnitude would represent 4-5% of total projected federal revenues, making it highly visible and unprecedented if expected under current law. Official government projections consistently indicate that such an event would necessitate new, significant legislation.
Spectrum auctions are not projected to generate $250 billion. While considered the most plausible source of large one-time revenue, spectrum auctions fall significantly short of the $250 billion annual threshold. Current budget proposals project approximately $6.0 billion in auction proceeds for 2027. Even an ambitious House proposal aims to raise $88 billion over nine years, averaging less than $10 billion per year, and is contingent on future legislation [^]. Realizing a total of $250 billion from spectrum sales would necessitate an unprecedented, logistically complex, and politically challenging simultaneous auction of nearly all valuable, unallocated government spectrum over an extended period.
SPR sales or other sources will not yield $250 billion. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) sales are definitively ruled out as a source for a $250 billion single-year inflow. The largest historical SPR release in 2022 generated approximately $14.4 billion, and a complete liquidation of the entire reserve today would only yield around $36 billion. Other speculative sources, like the sale of federal assets or one-time capital repatriation taxes, are not currently scheduled or would face immense political and logistical hurdles to generate such a sum within a single fiscal year. Based on current information, the probability of a $250 billion inflow from any discussed source remains near-zero.

9. Will US National Debt Peak Before 2029 Amid Treasury Operations?

Known Maturing Notes (H2 2028)Minimum $116 billion [^]
Projected Auction Sizes (H2 2028)Anticipated to maintain or increase [^]
National Debt TrajectoryStructurally probable to continue increasing through 2028 [^]
Over $116 billion in Treasury notes mature in late 2028. The U.S. Treasury anticipates a minimum of $116 billion in nominal Treasury notes maturing in the second half of 2028 [^]. This figure is a conservative estimate, as a complete schedule for all securities, particularly short-term Treasury bills, is not yet available and will be announced closer to the period [^]. Notably, this amount includes two $58 billion 3-year notes maturing in August and November 2028, respectively [^]. Additionally, a 0.75% Treasury Inflation-Indexed Note (TIPS) maturing in July 2028 will require redemption at a value substantially higher than its original par due to inflation adjustments [^].
Treasury expects to maintain or increase future auction sizes. Despite the significant maturing debt, the U.S. Treasury's consistent guidance points towards maintaining or potentially increasing nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes in the foreseeable future [^]. This strategy is driven by persistent structural deficits, rising debt servicing costs, and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet runoff [^]. The critical factor for the national debt trajectory is net privately-held marketable borrowing, which is expected to remain positive, meaning gross issuance will exceed maturities plus quarterly deficit financing needs [^].
National debt will likely continue increasing through late 2028. This continuous need to roll over debt and finance ongoing fiscal deficits makes it structurally probable that the U.S. national debt will continue to increase through the end of 2028. For the debt to peak before 2029, as relevant for the prediction market, it would require unforeseen significant changes such as a temporary budget surplus or extraordinary debt management operations, like strategic use of the Treasury General Account (TGA) to reduce net issuance in late December [^]. However, the most probable scenario indicates that the debt level on December 31, 2028, will not represent an intra-term peak, leading to a 'false' resolution for the prediction market [^].

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key catalysts that could accelerate the growth of the US national debt under the Trump administration primarily involve fiscal policies and economic conditions. The implementation of further significant tax cuts or the extension of expiring provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) could substantially reduce government revenue, with the extension of personal tax cuts alone projected to add $3.7 trillion to the cumulative debt over 10 years [^]. Large-scale infrastructure projects or increased defense spending without corresponding revenue increases would also directly boost the national debt, despite the minimal impact from the newly established Department of Government Efficiency [^]. An economic downturn, such as the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) projected real GDP growth slowdown to 1.4% in 2025, would lead to increased government spending on social safety nets and reduced tax revenues, exacerbating deficits [^]. Furthermore, any weakening of fiscal constraints, potentially through actions like eliminating the debt ceiling, could facilitate more unchecked borrowing [^].
Conversely, factors that could slow the growth of the US national debt include an unexpected and sustained shift towards fiscal restraint by the Trump administration and Congress, resulting in substantial spending cuts across various programs beyond current projections [^] . A period of exceptionally robust and sustained economic growth could lead to higher tax revenues, potentially reducing deficits even with some expansionary policies, offsetting current CBO forecasts for moderate growth [^]. If the expiring provisions of the 2017 tax cuts are not extended, and no new significant tax cuts are enacted, government revenue would increase, which could slow debt growth [^]. While currently unlikely, successful bipartisan efforts to implement significant debt reduction strategies, such as entitlement reforms or major revenue increases, would also alter the debt trajectory [^].
The trajectory of the national debt will also be heavily influenced by the CBO's 10-year outlook, which already projects debt held by the public to reach a new record of 107.2 percent of GDP by 2029 [^] . Key events include the decision around the expiration of critical provisions of the 2017 TCJA by the end of 2025, which holds significant fiscal implications [^]. Ongoing debt ceiling debates, particularly following its reinstatement and subsequent raise to $41.1 trillion by July 2025 as part of the “Big Beautiful Bill,” will be pivotal events to watch [^].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 31, 2029
  • Closes: March 31, 2029

11. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Key catalysts that could accelerate the growth of the US national debt under the Trump administration primarily involve fiscal policies and economic conditions.
  • Trigger: The implementation of further significant tax cuts or the extension of expiring provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) could substantially reduce government revenue, with the extension of personal tax cuts alone projected to add $3.7 trillion to the cumulative debt over 10 years [^] .
  • Trigger: Large-scale infrastructure projects or increased defense spending without corresponding revenue increases would also directly boost the national debt, despite the minimal impact from the newly established Department of Government Efficiency [^] .
  • Trigger: An economic downturn, such as the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) projected real GDP growth slowdown to 1.4% in 2025, would lead to increased government spending on social safety nets and reduced tax revenues, exacerbating deficits [^] .

13. Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.