How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends?

As of March 26, 2026, no specific FY2027 mandatory spending cuts have been established. A final, passed FY2027 Congressional Budget Resolution has not been identified, meaning no specific dollar amount for mandatory spending cuts via reconciliation instructions has been set. While the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) published FY2027 principles on February 10, 2026, advocating for significant mandatory spending savings, these principles do not specify a dollar amount and do not constitute a passed resolution ^{[^]}. For context, the House's prior FY2025 resolution (H.Con.Res.14), agreed upon in April 2025, targeted $2 trillion in net deficit reduction from spending committees via reconciliation instructions, providing a precedent for such cuts ^{[^]}.

No moderate Republican Senators have confirmed support for a hypothetical FY2027 reconciliation bill. There are no public confirmations from Republican Senators Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, or Mitt Romney indicating they will vote for a hypothetical FY2027 reconciliation bill. Both Senators Collins and Murkowski have previously opposed similar bills, citing concerns such as Medicaid cuts ^{[^]}. Although Senator Murkowski's office has been involved in discussions regarding FY2027 appropriations and Community Project Funding requests, this does not imply a confirmation on a reconciliation bill ^{[^]}. Similarly, Senator Collins has participated in bipartisan efforts unrelated to such a vote ^{[^]}.

The cumulative change in the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) 10-year baseline projection for mandatory spending outlays, encompassing Social Security, Medicare, and interest on the debt, from January 2026 through January 2028 cannot be fully determined [^] . CBO reports for August 2026, January 2027, and January 2028 have not yet been published, rendering comprehensive projections across these specific reports unavailable [Web Research Results] ^{[^]}. Recent CBO data shows increased deficits despite some mandatory spending cuts ^{[^]}. The CBO's February 2026 Budget and Economic Outlook, which updated the January 2025 baseline, projected a $1.4 trillion increase in overall deficits over the 2026-2035 period [Web Research Results, 2, 3] ^{[^]}. This outlook included a net $1.2 trillion decrease in mandatory spending, primarily attributed to Medicaid cuts incorporated within the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" [Web Research Results, 2, 3] ^{[^]}. However, this legislative reduction was partially offset by economic changes, which contributed a $0.27 trillion increase to mandatory spending [Web Research Results, 2, 3] ^{[^]}. Specific component changes remain indeterminable without upcoming CBO reports ^{[^]}. Without the subsequent release of CBO reports, specific cumulative changes for individual mandatory spending components, such as Social Security, Medicare, and net interest, from January 2026 through January 2028 cannot be determined [Web Research Results] ^{[^]}.

The administration proposed a cumulative $14.3 billion in budget authority for cancellation. Since January 2025, the administration has sent two presidential rescission messages to Congress, totaling $14.3 billion in proposed budget authority cancellations. The first message, sent in June 2025, suggested rescinding $9.4 billion ^{[^]}. A subsequent message in August 2025 proposed an additional $4.9 billion for cancellation ^{[^]}. These proposals were issued consistent with the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974.

Congress successfully rescinded $9 billion of the proposed budget authority. Congress acted on the initial package of proposed rescissions, with the Rescissions Act of 2025 (Pub. L. 119-28) being signed into law on July 24, 2025, which effectively cancelled $9 billion in budget authority ^{[^]}. However, the $4.9 billion proposed in the August 2025 message was not acted upon by Congress, and the funds expired, a process sometimes referred to as a "pocket rescission" ^{[^]}. Therefore, out of the total $14.3 billion proposed since January 2025, $9 billion was successfully rescinded by congressional action, representing approximately 63% of the total proposed value.

Official budget proposals for FY2027 and FY2028 are currently unavailable. As of March 26, 2026, the Trump administration has not released official budget proposals for Fiscal Years 2027 or 2028 [Web Research Results]. Preliminary statements, however, indicate a proposed defense '050' budget of $1.5 trillion for FY2027 ^{[^]}. This figure represents a significant increase of approximately $600 billion when compared to the FY2026 enacted defense spending level of $901 billion ^{[^]}.

Calculating the "defense offset" is not possible with current data. To assess the "defense offset" and determine the net effect on total discretionary spending for FY2027 and FY2028, it is necessary to subtract proposed cuts to non-defense discretionary (NDD) spending from the proposed increases to defense '050' spending, relative to the CBO baseline. The available research explicitly states that "No explicit NDD cut figures, CBO baseline projections, or 'defense offset' calculations relative to CBO baseline for FY2027/FY2028 found in sources" [Web Research Results]. While prior patterns suggest deep NDD cuts, such as a $163 billion reduction (22%) below FY2025 for FY2026 base NDD ^{[^]}, specific proposals for FY2027 and FY2028 are absent.

The net effect on total discretionary spending remains undetermined. Given the lack of explicit proposed non-defense discretionary (NDD) spending cuts and CBO baseline projections for FY2027 and FY2028, it is not possible to calculate the net effect on total discretionary spending or the "defense offset" as defined by the question. Therefore, the impact on total discretionary spending for these fiscal years, relative to the CBO baseline, cannot be determined based on the currently available information.

The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) projects a significant divergence for upcoming fiscal year's real GDP growth. The OMB's real GDP growth forecast for calendar year 2026 (Q4/Q4) is 3.2%, as outlined in its FY2026 Mid-Session Review published in September 2025 ^{[^]}. In contrast, the Blue Chip Economic Indicators consensus forecast for 2026 real GDP growth stands at 1.9%, based on their December 2025 survey ^{[^]}. This results in a divergence of approximately 1.3 percentage points, with the OMB's forecast being notably more optimistic than the Blue Chip consensus ^{[^]}.

No data confirms a widening gap in forecasts over successive budget releases. There is no specific evidence in the research to suggest that the gap between OMB and Blue Chip forecasts is widening with each successive President's Budget release, primarily due to a lack of multi-year President's Budget data for such a comparison ^{[^]}. However, historical analyses consistently show that the OMB's economic projections tend to be more optimistic than those from independent forecasters, such as the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which projected a 2.2% real GDP growth for 2026 in September 2025 ^{[^]}. While this optimistic stance in the administration's forecasts generally supports higher government revenue projections, independent sources frequently view these projections as less realistic ^{[^]}.

Prediction markets currently show low odds for significant government spending cuts during a potential Trump term (Q4 2024 to Q4 2028), with the probability of cuts reaching or exceeding $250 billion, $500 billion, or $1 trillion decreasing [^] . This bearish outlook is attributed to anticipated offsets, the untouched status of major entitlement programs, and the potential for government shutdowns hindering fiscal reforms ^{[^]}. Although the OBBBA previously enacted roughly $1.4 trillion in cuts over ten years, predominantly in areas like Medicaid, SNAP, and student loans, the net reduction after increases was about $1 trillion ^{[^]}.

Several key catalysts could influence the market probability of spending cuts. The release of the FY2027 budget proposal in early 2026, followed by reconciliation processes, will be a critical event ^{[^]}. Strong economic growth or the implementation of new tariffs could provide additional fiscal leeway, potentially bolstering a bullish outlook for spending reductions ^{[^]}. Conversely, robust congressional opposition to proposed cuts would likely serve as a bearish catalyst, making substantial reductions difficult to achieve ^{[^]}. The appropriations process during the summer of 2026 will also be a crucial period for observing legislative intent regarding government spending ^{[^]}.