1. Executive Verdict

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Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
4.1 to 4.5 5.0% — Insufficient data
4.6 to 5.0 4.0% — Insufficient data
2.1 to 2.5 24.0% — Insufficient data
3.6 to 4.0 6.0% — Insufficient data
2.6 to 3.0 21.0% — Insufficient data

2. Market Data

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Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Implied probability
2.1 to 2.5 $0.24 $0.77 24%
2.6 to 3.0 $0.21 $0.80 21%
1.6 to 2.0 $0.16 $0.85 16%
0.0 or below $0.09 $0.96 9%
3.1 to 3.5 $0.09 $0.95 9%
1.1 to 1.5 $0.06 $0.95 6%
3.6 to 4.0 $0.06 $0.95 6%
4.1 to 4.5 $0.05 $0.96 5%
0.6 to 1.0 $0.04 $0.97 4%
4.6 to 5.0 $0.04 $0.97 4%
5.1 to 5.5 $0.03 $1.00 3%
0.1 to 0.5 $0.02 $0.99 2%
5.6 to 6.0 $0.02 $1.00 2%
6.1 or above $0.01 $1.00 1%