GDP growth in 2025?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that GDP growth in 2025 will be between 2.1% and 2.5%, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Our model finds higher 2025 GDP growth is significantly probable.
- Strong Q4 2025 economic momentum signals robust year-end performance.
- Institutional forecasts (IMF, S&P) show upward revisions for US growth.
- Positive surprises observed in recent trade-related economic data.
- Historical revisions suggest probabilities for higher 2025 GDP outcomes.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.6 to 3.0 | 6% | 12.8% | Upward revisions from institutional forecasts like IMF and S&P support growth in this range. |
| 3.1 to 3.5 | 3% | 7.4% | Documented positive surprises in trade-related data indicate potential for robust growth. |
| 2.1 to 2.5 | 94% | 73.5% | Strong Q4 2025 momentum and upward forecast revisions suggest a higher growth rate for the year. |
| 1.6 to 2.0 | 1% | 0.5% | Current economic indicators do not suggest growth will deviate significantly to this range. |
| 3.6 to 4.0 | 1% | 2.5% | Current economic indicators do not suggest growth will deviate significantly to this range. |
Current Context
Recent economic performance data for 2025 indicates mixed growth across regions. The UK economy expanded by a modest 0.1% in the final quarter of 2025, maintaining the previous quarter's rate, resulting in a 1.3% increase for the entirety of 2025, which was slightly below the official forecast of 1.5% [^]. The dominant services sector in the UK showed no growth in Q4 2025 [^]. In the euro area, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, with an estimated annual growth of 1.5% for the full year [^]. For the United States, a Federal Reserve Board note from February 12, 2026, highlighted that economic prediction for 2025 remained challenging, with aggregate real economic uncertainty exceeding pre-pandemic levels, significantly driven by trade-related uncertainty due to better-than-expected positive surprises in trade flows [^]. Upcoming data releases include the first regular estimates for annual growth in 2025 for the euro area and the EU on March 6, 2026, and the next UK GDP figures on March 31, 2026 [^].
Forecasters provided varied 2025 global and country-specific GDP growth projections. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected global real GDP growth at 3.2% in its October 2025 update, a modest upgrade from its April 2025 projection of 2.8% [^]. In contrast, PwC Network projected global economic growth to ease to 2.6% in 2025, attributing this largely to geopolitical tensions and rising protectionist policies [^]. Morgan Stanley also forecasted a global growth slowdown to 2.9% in 2025, citing US tariffs and deceleration affecting the rest of the world [^]. For the United States, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.3%-4.4% in the third quarter of 2025 [^]. Professional forecasters, as of December 2024, expected US real GDP to grow by 2.1% over 2025 [^]. More specific expert opinions varied, with the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's November 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters indicating a 1.9% outlook [^], Goldman Sachs forecasting 2.4% (attributing it to robust private domestic demand, investment, AI, and federal incentives) [^], and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) lowering its projection to 1.4% in September 2025 due to tariffs and reduced net immigration [^]. China's GDP growth in 2025 was forecasted around 4.6% (PwC) to 4.8% (IMF), with Morgan Stanley projecting 4.5% [^]. India was expected to maintain strong momentum, with growth exceeding 6% (PwC) or 5.9% (Morgan Stanley) [^]. Regarding economic indicators, professional forecasters anticipated US CPI inflation to cool to 2.4% and the unemployment rate to average 4.3% in 2025, while Goldman Sachs predicted core PCE inflation to fall to 2.1% and the unemployment rate to dip slightly to 4% by year-end 2025 [^].
Key discussions for 2025 GDP growth highlight several persistent concerns. A dominant concern revolves around the impact of tariffs and trade policy, with debates on how US tariffs, trade protectionism, and changes in global supply chains might affect GDP growth and inflation worldwide [^]. The inflation trajectory is another central point of discussion, focusing on whether disinflation will continue as expected or if upside risks, such as from tariffs or geopolitical events, could lead to persistent inflation, potentially delaying central bank interest rate cuts [^]. Questions also persist regarding the sustained strength of consumer spending and business investment, particularly in the face of policy uncertainty and higher borrowing costs [^]. Labor market dynamics, including future job growth, unemployment rates, and labor force participation, are influenced by factors like immigration policies and economic slowdowns [^]. Discussions also emphasize divergent global recoveries, noting the uneven economic performance across different regions, with advanced economies showing robust performance while many emerging and developing economies still struggle to surpass pre-pandemic per capita income levels [^]. A recurring theme is the challenge in accurately forecasting economic activity, as actual 2025 GDP figures often surprised economists, leading to reflections on the reliability of predictions [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market, which appears to track the probability of a high GDP growth outcome for 2025, has been defined by a sustained and significant downward trend. Opening at a 15.0% probability, the market experienced a period of volatility, reaching a peak of 29.0% before commencing a long-term decline. It has since fallen to a current price of 5.0%, near its all-time low of 4.0%. This price action indicates that initial optimism for a high-growth scenario has been consistently eroded over the market's lifespan, with sentiment turning decisively negative.
The primary driver for the overall downward trend appears to be the release of actual economic data for 2025. The current context shows realized annual growth figures of 1.3% for the UK and 1.5% for the euro area, numbers that are substantially below what would be considered a high-growth outcome. While the provided context for the January 23, 2026, price movement refers to a spike in a different market outcome ("2.6 to 3.0"), the optimistic IMF forecast mentioned would have simultaneously drawn probability away from more extreme outcomes, potentially contributing to the decline of this contract around that time. The final data showing modest growth effectively confirmed the market's bearish trajectory, leading to the current low valuation.
The market's volume patterns suggest that conviction in the negative outcome is now very high. While the total traded volume of over 274,000 contracts indicates healthy liquidity and engagement earlier in its history, the sample data shows recent volume has dropped to zero. This decline in trading activity, coupled with the price stabilizing near its floor, suggests traders have reached a strong consensus and the market is largely settled. A clear support level has formed around the $0.04 to $0.05 price range, which represents a floor of residual uncertainty. Overall, the chart reflects a market sentiment that has shifted from speculative optimism to a firm consensus that this high-growth scenario for 2025 GDP will not materialize.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: 2.6 to 3.0
📈 January 23, 2026: 12.0pp spike
Price increased from 8.0% to 20.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 12.0 percentage point spike in the "2.6 to 3.0" outcome for the "GDP growth in 2025?" prediction market on January 23, 2026, was a series of optimistic traditional economic news and data releases [^]. Specifically, the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) World Economic Outlook Update on January 19, 2026, significantly revised the United States' 2025 GDP growth forecast upwards to 2.4%, a 0.3 percentage point increase, and projected global growth at 3.0% for 2025 [^]. This upward revision was further bolstered by the release of stronger-than-expected US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for Q3 2025 on January 22, 2026, which showed an actual growth of 4.4% against a forecast of 4.3% [^]. These announcements, indicating robust economic performance and an improved outlook for 2025, directly preceded and coincided with the market movement [^]. No prominent social media activity from key figures or viral narratives appeared to be the primary driver of this particular price spike [^]. Social media was irrelevant in this specific instance [^].
Outcome: 2.1 to 2.5
📈 January 15, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 76.0% to 85.0%
What happened: The 9.0 percentage point spike in the "GDP growth in 2025?" prediction market for the "2.1 to 2.5" outcome on January 15, 2026, was primarily driven by updated economic forecasts from traditional institutions [^]. S&P Global's report, with data compiled on January 15, 2026, indicated "somewhat higher US growth in 2025 and 2026" reflecting stronger-than-expected real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 [^]. Concurrently, The Conference Board's January 2026 outlook projected U.S [^]. GDP to expand at a pace of 2.2% year-over-year in 2025, fitting precisely within the prediction market's specified range [^]. Social media activity from figures like Elon Musk and Donald Trump around this period typically predicted significantly higher growth rates for 2025 or future years, or focused on past quarterly performance, making them unlikely to be the primary driver for a spike into this specific, moderate range [^]. Therefore, traditional news and announcements were the primary driver [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
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Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.1 to 2.5 | $0.94 | $0.08 | 94% |
| 2.6 to 3.0 | $0.06 | $0.96 | 6% |
| 3.1 to 3.5 | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| 0.1 to 0.5 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 0.6 to 1.0 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 1.1 to 1.5 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 1.6 to 2.0 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 3.6 to 4.0 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 4.1 to 4.5 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 4.6 to 5.0 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 0.0 or below | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 5.1 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Discussions and debates surrounding "GDP growth in 2025" largely centered on a nuanced outlook, with many experts anticipating solid global growth despite significant regional divergence and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [^]. A prominent viewpoint, particularly from institutions like Goldman Sachs, projected the US to outperform expectations with a 2.5% GDP increase, while the Euro area was expected to lag at 0.8%, partly due to anticipated fresh tariffs [^]. Conversely, initial forecasts from the IMF and the UN predicted a more subdued global growth of around 2.8% to 3.3%, below historical averages, with concerns about high public debt and the potential impact of industrial policies [^]. However, as 2025 unfolded, a key debate emerged around the unexpected resilience of the global economy, particularly the US, which saw stronger-than-forecasted growth rates in some quarters, leading to discussions about "upside surprises" driven by factors like AI-related investment, consumer spending, and moderating inflation [^]. Despite this, concerns about potential negative impacts from trade tensions, particularly new US tariffs, and questions about the sustainability and inclusiveness of growth, remained central to expert commentary and discussions on platforms like Reddit and at events such as the World Economic Forum in Davos [^].
5. How Do GDP Component Revisions Behave Under Trade Uncertainty?
| Q3 2025 GDP Revision Driver | Upward revision to exports [^] |
|---|---|
| Q2 2025 Business Investment Revision | Sharper upward revisions for business fixed investment [^] |
| Long-run GDP Impact of Tariffs | Projected reduction in growth [^] |
During periods of heightened trade uncertainty, revisions to GDP estimates enlarge. When heightened trade uncertainty occurs, such as during the 2018-2019 U.S.-China trade war or the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, revisions between the Bureau of Economic Analysis's (BEA) 'advance' and 'third' GDP estimates for Net Exports and Gross Private Domestic Investment (GPDI) tend to be larger. Net Exports revisions are frequently volatile because advance estimates struggle to capture factors like tariff front-loading and trade diversion. This volatility arises from the advance estimate's reliance on incomplete data and models that may not hold during trade friction, leading to significant corrections in later estimates. For instance, an upward revision to GDP in Q3 2025 was primarily driven by an upward revision to exports [^], highlighting the dynamic nature of this component and how atypical trade behaviors, like those during the U.S.-China trade war, are only fully accounted for in the more comprehensive third estimate.
GPDI revisions typically trend upward despite trade uncertainty's impact. Gross Private Domestic Investment is particularly sensitive to trade uncertainty, as business caution, supply chain instability, and higher costs from tariffs can depress or delay investment decisions [^]. Despite this sensitivity, a common pattern observed is an upward revision to GPDI, suggesting initial estimates may underestimate actual capital expenditure [^]. This includes significant upward revisions across all nonresidential business investment subcomponents. For example, stronger business fixed investment was a primary driver for a higher GDP estimate in Q2 2025 [^], with strong capital expenditure in strategic sectors like technology, specifically hyperscaler spending, contributing to these adjustments [^].
6. What Key Drivers Caused Q4 2025 GDPNow Forecast Fluctuations?
| GDPNow Final Q4 2025 Estimate | 3.7 percent (February 10, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| GDPNow Peak Q4 2025 Estimate | 5.4 percent (January 2026) [^] |
| SPF 2025 Annual Growth Forecast | 1.9 percent [^] |
Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model showed significant Q4 2025 volatility. Its Q4 2025 estimate commenced at 3.0 percent on December 23, 2025, surging to a peak of 5.4 percent in January 2026, before concluding with a final estimate of 3.7 percent by February 10, 2026 [^]. This dynamic trajectory was primarily driven by real-time data releases concerning Personal Consumption Expenditures, Gross Private Domestic Investment (especially inventory changes), and Net Exports. Strong holiday season sales and inventory accumulation likely fueled the mid-quarter surge, while subsequent data on trade deficits contributed to its moderation.
GDPNow significantly diverged from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. While GDPNow's final Q4 estimate concluded at 3.7 percent, the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) anticipated a more conservative 1.9 percent annual growth for 2025 and assigned a 22.9 percent probability to negative growth in Q4 2025 [^]. This discrepancy stemmed from their differing methodologies; GDPNow functions as a mechanical, data-driven nowcasting tool, reacting directly to incoming high-frequency economic data, whereas the SPF represents a judgment-inclusive, survey-based consensus that likely incorporates broader risks and underlying economic trends.
This divergence created a complex environment for financial markets. The initial surge in GDPNow to 5.4 percent would have prompted market prices to reflect higher growth expectations, which partially retracted as the estimate subsequently moderated to 3.7 percent [^]. Ultimately, the hard data reflected by GDPNow, even in its tempered form, presented a more robust picture of Q4 economic activity compared to the more cautious professional consensus from the SPF, offering distinct implications for both traders and policymakers assessing the economic landscape.
7. What Is the Discrepancy in 2025 Inventory's GDP Contribution?
| Latest CIPI Nowcast (Q4 2025) | +0.80 percentage points (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta GDPNow, Feb 10, 2026 [^]) |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 Real GDP Consensus Forecast | 1% to 2% (SAAR) (December 2025 Blue Chip survey [^]) |
| Advance Q4 2025 GDP Release Date | February 20, 2026 (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis [^]) |
A definitive comparison of CIPI's 2025 contribution with forecasts is currently not possible. A definitive calculation of the difference between the final 2025 Change in Private Inventories (CIPI) contribution to real GDP and the December 2025 Blue Chip median forecast cannot yet be performed. This is primarily because the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has not yet released the full-year 2025 GDP figures, with the advance Q4 2025 estimate scheduled for February 20, 2026 [^]. Additionally, publicly available summaries of the Blue Chip survey do not provide specific median forecasts for the CIPI component's contribution to GDP growth, as these sub-component forecasts are typically proprietary [^].
Provisional analysis suggests a significant potential discrepancy for fourth-quarter inventory accumulation. Despite these data limitations, a provisional analysis based on the latest available estimates suggests a significant potential for discrepancy. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model, as of February 10, 2026, projects CIPI to contribute a substantial +0.80 percentage points to Q4 2025 real GDP growth [^]. This contrasts sharply with the median consensus from the December 2025 Blue Chip survey, which projected a much more subdued overall real GDP growth for Q4 2025, in the range of 1% to 2% (SAAR) [^]. This divergence implies that professional forecasters did not anticipate the magnitude of inventory accumulation that appears to have occurred in the fourth quarter.
Anticipated discrepancies in CIPI are critical for economic interpretation and financial markets. This anticipated discrepancy is crucial for economic interpretation and financial markets. A large, unexpected positive CIPI figure forces analysts to determine if the inventory build was intentional, indicating business confidence and future sales, or unintentional, signaling weakening demand and a potential future economic slowdown (an inventory overhang). Such volatility in CIPI, which can lead to forecast errors as large as 2 percentage points for GDP growth [^], significantly impacts monetary policy decisions, equity and bond market reactions, and the resolution of economic prediction markets [^].
8. How Did 2025 GDP Price Index Revisions Impact Real GDP?
| Q1 2025 GDP Price Index Net Revision | 0 bps [^] |
|---|---|
| Q2 2025 GDP Price Index Net Revision | +10 bps [^] |
| Average Historical Price Index Revision | Approximately 10 basis points [^] |
GDP price index revisions for 2025 showed varied quarterly changes. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) routinely revises its Gross Domestic Purchases Price Index estimates. For 2025, the first and third quarters experienced zero net revisions when comparing advance to final estimates [^]. However, the second quarter of 2025 saw a net upward revision of 10 basis points in its price index [^]. Such revisions are a standard practice in economic data reporting, with historical averages for price index revisions typically being around 10 basis points from advance to final estimates [^].
Price index revisions directly affect real GDP growth calculations. An upward revision to the price index generally leads to a downward adjustment in real GDP. For instance, the 10 basis point upward revision in the Q2 2025 price index resulted in an approximate 10 basis point downward adjustment in real GDP growth for that same quarter [^]. The impact of revisions is also evident in other quarters, with Q1 2025 Real GDP being revised downward to an annual rate of -0.5 percent [^], while Q3 2025 Real GDP was revised upward to 4.4 percent [^]. These examples illustrate how both price deflator and nominal component revisions collectively influence the final real GDP figures.
Minor price index adjustments significantly impact economic forecasting. The cumulative effect of the 2025 revisions suggests that the final full-year GDP price index was likely between 0 and 5 basis points higher than initial advance estimates. While these adjustments may seem small, they carry significant implications for economic analysis and prediction markets. Even minor changes in the price index can alter the final real GDP growth rate, underscoring the critical importance of understanding revision patterns for accurate economic forecasting.
9. How Significantly Will 2025 GDP Estimates Be Revised?
| Projected 2025 GDP Finalization Date | On or around Wednesday, July 29, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Average Revision (Recent Comprehensive Updates) | 0.2 percentage points (2022-2024) [^] |
| Long-Term Average Revision (Third Estimate to Final) | Approximately 1.26 percentage points (1999-2022) [^] |
The comprehensive annual update for 2025 GDP is expected around July 29, 2026 [^] . This significant update by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will coincide with the advance estimate for Q2 2026 and incorporates extensive annual source data, such as IRS tax returns and Census Bureau surveys, to finalize the 2025 data. Prior to this, initial estimates for 2025 GDP will be released, beginning with the Advance Estimate for Q4 and full-year 2025 on February 20, 2026 [^]. This will be followed by a Second Estimate on March 13, 2026 [^], and a Third Estimate on April 9, 2026 [^]. Average absolute revisions for these preliminary estimates typically measure 0.5 percentage points from the advance to the second estimate, and 0.3 percentage points from the second to the third estimate [^].
Historical data indicates initial GDP estimates are subject to substantial revision. The average absolute revision to the headline annual GDP growth rate in the three most recent comprehensive updates (2022-2024) was 0.2 percentage points [^]. However, the long-term average absolute revision from the "third estimate" of annual GDP to the latest available data vintage (spanning 1999-2022) is approximately 1.26 percentage points [^]. This significant long-term difference underscores that initial GDP releases, even the "third estimate," should be considered preliminary. Analysts should account for the inherent uncertainty in early GDP figures and may find value in reviewing alternative data, such as Gross Domestic Income (GDI), which can often signal future GDP revisions [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Several catalysts suggest a potential upward revision for 2025 GDP growth. Expectations are high for a strong US Q4 2025 advance estimate, potentially signaling a robust year-end performance [^]. This sentiment is echoed by the IMF's upward revision of global and US growth projections for 2026, citing strong late-2025 momentum and continued fiscal support, particularly for the US outlook [^]. Furthermore, the Eurozone confirmed resilient Q4 2025 growth, contributing to an accelerated full-year GDP, while China's economy ended 2025 stronger than anticipated, meeting its 5% growth target driven by policy support and exports [^].
Conversely, several factors present downside risks to the 2025 GDP outlook. Significant downward benchmark revisions to US 2025 job growth, revealed in the January 2026 jobs report, painted a picture of a much softer underlying labor market for the year, with total job growth substantially reduced from initial estimates [^]. Both the OECD and World Bank have also issued cautious outlooks; the OECD projected a global GDP slowdown in 2026 due to higher effective tariff rates and persistent uncertainties [^], while the World Bank highlighted numerous downside risks including renewed trade frictions, policy uncertainty, tighter global financial conditions, and rising geopolitical tensions [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 26, 2026
- Closes: February 20, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Several catalysts suggest a potential upward revision for 2025 GDP growth.
- Trigger: Expectations are high for a strong US Q4 2025 advance estimate, potentially signaling a robust year-end performance [^] .
- Trigger: This sentiment is echoed by the IMF's upward revision of global and US growth projections for 2026, citing strong late-2025 momentum and continued fiscal support, particularly for the US outlook [^] .
- Trigger: Furthermore, the Eurozone confirmed resilient Q4 2025 growth, contributing to an accelerated full-year GDP, while China's economy ended 2025 stronger than anticipated, meeting its 5% growth target driven by policy support and exports [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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