Unemployment in Feb 2026
1. Executive Verdict
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.4% | 11.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above 4.6% | 4.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above 4.2% | 81.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above 4.3% | 50.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above 4.0% | 97.0% | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Data
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.8% | $0.99 | $0.03 | 99% |
| Above 3.9% | $0.99 | $0.03 | 99% |
| Above 4.0% | $0.97 | $0.04 | 97% |
| Above 4.1% | $0.95 | $0.09 | 95% |
| Above 4.2% | $0.81 | $0.20 | 81% |
| Above 4.3% | $0.50 | $0.51 | 50% |
| Above 4.4% | $0.11 | $0.90 | 11% |
| Above 4.5% | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| Above 4.6% | $0.04 | $0.98 | 4% |
| Above 4.7% | $0.03 | $0.99 | 3% |
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