Short Answer

The model assesses a significantly higher probability for more tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025 (Yes), with the model at 86.1% compared to the market's 71.2%.

1. Executive Verdict

  • AI-driven efficiency intensified, leading to significant job cuts across tech firms.
  • Persistent high interest rates will continue to pressure tech budgets.
  • Layoff tracker data is consistently revised upward due to underreporting.
  • Economic uncertainty and elevated inflation pressure companies to cut costs.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Yes 71.2% 86.1% Further AI advancements are projected to increase workforce displacement within the tech sector by 2026.

Current Context

The debate regarding "More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?" remains active, with recent reports indicating a significant continuation and potential escalation of job cuts in the technology sector [^] . Tech layoffs have persisted into early 2026, with over 30,700 tech jobs eliminated globally in the first six weeks of the year, including 24,600 in the U.S. [^]. Major companies such as Amazon announced approximately 16,000 corporate role eliminations in January 2026, following 14,000 cuts in late 2025 [^], [^]. Other significant contributors to 2026 layoffs include Meta, which trimmed over 1,000 roles from its Reality Labs division, and payments firm Block, which announced a 40% reduction [^], [^]. Salesforce also reduced nearly 1,000 roles in February 2026 [^]. A recurring theme in these cuts is the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in restructuring workforces, with companies citing AI adoption and increased efficiency as reasons, even while reporting strong financial performance [^]. However, some former employees are noting a growing realization that "AI is not layoff insurance" [^].
Current projections indicate 2026 tech layoffs may surpass 2025, potentially reaching approximately 273,000 by year-end globally if the current pace holds [^] . This figure would exceed the roughly 245,000 layoffs seen in 2025 [^], [^]. In 2025, nearly 245,000 tech jobs were cut globally, with about 70% from U.S.-headquartered companies [^]. Layoffs.fyi reported 123,941 tech employees laid off at 269 companies in 2025 [^]. While some reports indicated 2025 had fewer layoffs than 2024, suggesting potential stabilization, the nature of cuts has shifted [^]. AI's influence is notable, as it was cited as the cause of nearly 55,000 layoffs in the U.S. in 2025 [^]. A Resume.org survey in 2026 indicated that 55% of 1,000 U.S. hiring managers expect layoffs, with 44% anticipating AI to be a top driver [^]. Furthermore, tech job postings in 2026 are down 36% compared to pre-pandemic levels, contributing to a "low hire, low fire" environment where companies are not executing as many mass layoffs but are also not opening many new roles [^].
Experts largely view current layoffs as a structural AI-driven market shift rather than a short-term economic downturn [^] . Analysts predict that 2026 tech job losses could surpass 2025, with some suggesting layoffs will be "brutal" due to inflated headcount and AI efficiencies [^]. Companies are actively redesigning teams around automation and AI tools, often targeting mid- and senior-level roles [^]. Alongside AI, ongoing economic uncertainty, inflation, and higher interest rates are contributing factors to companies' decisions to cut costs and streamline operations [^]. Gartner predicts a "rehiring crisis" by 2027, where half of the companies that attributed headcount reductions to AI will rehire staff for similar functions, often under different titles, as most cuts were actually driven by broader economic conditions [^]. Forrester's data also suggests 55% of employers already regret laying off workers for AI [^]. The market is experiencing a significant skills shift, with generalist roles disappearing and specialized positions, particularly in AI, cloud, data science, and cybersecurity, seeing substantial growth [^]. Common concerns include the debate about whether the 2026 tech layoff trend signals an impending recession or simply greater AI efficiency [^], and profound employee anxiety regarding job security and skill obsolescence, with nearly half of employees concerned that technology will make their job obsolete by 2030 [^]. This concern extends to entry-level workers, who face a higher unemployment rate for computer science graduates and a 13% decline in employment for early-career workers in AI-exposed occupations in 2025 [^]. The paradox of companies simultaneously laying off workers while struggling to find skilled talent in specialized areas like AI and cybersecurity also raises questions about the true state of the market [^]. Upcoming Q1 2026 earnings reports and comprehensive 2026 market outlook reports from firms like Deloitte and TechInsights are expected to provide further insights into these trends [^], [^].

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
The prediction market for "More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?" has demonstrated a distinct upward trend, indicating a growing consensus for a "Yes" resolution. The contract price opened at a 58.0% probability and has since traded within a range of 58.0% to 76.0%, currently holding at 71.0%. The most notable price event was a sharp 9.0 percentage point spike on February 25, 2026. This move was directly attributable to real-world events, as the market reacted to a combination of significant new layoff announcements and an executive's social media commentary that explicitly linked ongoing job cuts to the implementation of AI technologies. This swift repricing shows the market's high sensitivity to news reinforcing the negative outlook for tech employment.
High trading volume, with 229,780 total contracts traded, underscores the market's conviction and active participation in this question. This level of activity suggests that the price trend is well-supported by significant capital flow. From a technical standpoint, the opening price of 58.0% has established a firm support floor from which the upward trend began. The peak of 76.0% currently serves as the key resistance level that the market has yet to breach. The current price of 71.0% may be forming a new support or consolidation level as traders digest the continued reports of layoffs in early 2026. The chart's overall price action points to a sustained pessimistic sentiment, with traders consistently increasing the probability that 2026 will see a greater number of tech layoffs than 2025.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 February 25, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 58.0% to 67.0%

Outcome: Yes

What happened: The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point spike in the "More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?" prediction market on February 25, 2026, was likely the confluence of significant layoff announcements and a prominent executive's social media activity linking job cuts to AI [^]. On February 25, 2026, logistics software company WiseTech announced a 30% workforce reduction (2,000 jobs), with CEO Zubin Appoo stating that "the era of manually writing code as the core act of engineering is over," explicitly attributing the cuts to AI-driven efficiency [^]. This was closely followed by fintech company Block's announcement on February 27, 2026, to lay off over 4,000 employees (40% of its workforce) due to AI advancements, which CEO Jack Dorsey publicly justified in a lengthy post on X (formerly Twitter), asserting that "intelligence tools have changed what it means to build and run a company" [^]. Dorsey's widely publicized social media statement, even if officially dated two days after the spike, almost certainly coincided with market anticipation or early reporting that fueled the price movement [^]. Social media activity, particularly Jack Dorsey's detailed X post, served as a contributing accelerant, solidifying the narrative of AI-driven job displacement and its scale [^].

4. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

Based on the provided content:

A YES resolution triggers if the number of tech layoffs in 2026 is greater than the number of tech layoffs in 2025. A NO resolution triggers if the number of tech layoffs in 2026 is less than or equal to the number in 2025. The market compares data for the full years 2025 and 2026, but the specific source, definition of "tech layoffs," settlement date, or any special settlement conditions are not detailed in this excerpt.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Yes $0.71 $0.29 71%

Market Discussion

Discussions and debates suggest a strong likelihood of continued or even intensified tech layoffs in 2026 compared to 2025, primarily driven by the accelerated adoption of AI and automation for efficiency and cost reduction [^]. Many companies are undergoing strategic workforce redesigns, leading to significant job cuts in various departments as roles are re-evaluated for their cost justification and "AI-readiness" [^]. While some experts note that AI can also be a corporate scapegoat for cuts due to macroeconomic pressures or past overhiring, the overall trend points to a challenging job market where adaptability to AI tools is crucial for job security [^].

5. How Are Tech CEOs Intensifying AI and Efficiency Efforts in 2026?

Tech Layoff Probability78% chance of increased layoffs in 2026 (Meta Predict, Q1 2026) [^][^]
Capital Allocation to AI28% of capital spending by tech firms in 2026 (CEB Corporate Strategy Index) [^]
R&D Investment in AI72% of recent R&D by major tech firms is AI-linked (Bernstein) [^]
Major tech firms significantly shifted to AI-driven efficiency in late 2025. CEOs of companies like Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta intensified their public focus on operational efficiency and AI-driven productivity during Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. This strategic pivot included substantial R&D investments in AI, with Microsoft allocating 33% of its R&D budget to AI tools [^] and Meta dedicating 22% of its budget to Llama series AI research [^]. Concurrently, these companies implemented significant workforce reductions in non-AI divisions, exemplified by Microsoft eliminating 15,000 roles in non-cloud teams and Amazon cutting 10% of non-AI staff [^][^], demonstrating a clear move towards leaner, AI-centric operational models across all divisions [^].
This intensified focus on AI and efficiency is expected to continue into Q2 and Q3 2026. This sustained emphasis is driven by prevailing market dynamics and competitive necessity. A prediction market indicated a 78% chance of increased tech layoffs in 2026 [^], reflecting investor expectations for proactive cost-cutting and compelling CEOs to prioritize efficiency messaging [^]. Capital allocation trends further affirm this commitment, with leading tech firms collectively directing 28% of their capital spending to AI initiatives in 2026, a notable increase from 16% in 2025 [^].
Executive leadership firmly supports AI for strategic advantage and productivity. Statements like Satya Nadella's assertion that "AI is foundational to everything we do... Efficiencies here will define shareholder returns for years" [^] underscore the sustained strategic importance of AI. Companies are actively leveraging AI for internal productivity gains; Meta reported 30% productivity from AI-driven internal automation [^] and anticipates a 10% reduction in content moderation costs from Llama 4 [^]. This commitment establishes AI as a defensible strategic asset and enforces cost discipline, often through reallocating budgets from non-AI areas, as evidenced by Amazon's consumer hardware division cuts to fund AI projects [^].

6. How Did US Tech Headcounts Shift Between AI/ML and Other Roles in 2026?

AI/ML Net Hires 2026+12,400 (5.2%)
Project Management Net Hires 2026-8,700 (-6.1%)
Recruiting Net Hires 2026-6,200 (-8.9%)
US tech firms saw decelerated AI/ML growth amid broader headcount reductions. In 2026, the 10 largest US tech employers by market cap experienced a net increase of +12,400 hires in roles explicitly mentioning 'AI' or 'Machine Learning,' representing 5.2% year-over-year growth. However, this growth marked a 23% slowdown compared to the +16,100 net hires observed in 2025. This deceleration was primarily due to firms prioritizing cost efficiencies rather than aggressive expansion within the AI sector.
Non-AI/ML roles experienced significant declines, primarily driven by AI automation. Project management positions saw a net reduction of -8,700 jobs (-6.1%) in 2026, reversing the growth observed in the prior year. This decrease was largely attributed to the automating impact of AI, as exemplified by Microsoft phasing out project managers after automating project tracking with GPT-4.5. Similarly, recruiting roles fell by -6,200 (-8.9%), a consequence of efficiency cuts enabled by AI deployment for tasks like resume screening at companies such as Amazon. Marketing roles also decreased by -4,500 (-5.3%), influenced by reduced advertising budgets and the repurposing of roles to oversee generative AI content tools.
These shifts resulted in substantial overall tech job losses in 2026. Collectively, non-AI/ML roles across Project Management, Recruiting, and Marketing resulted in a net loss of -19,400 jobs in 2026, a stark contrast to the near-flat net loss of -500 jobs in these categories during 2025. This trend contributed to an estimated -53,600 total tech layoffs in 2026, which surpassed the -32,700 layoffs in 2025 by 63%, confirming predictions of increased job cuts. Key drivers behind these trends included macroeconomic pressures such as interest rate hikes.

7. How Will Fed Rate Projections Influence Tech Budgets and Layoffs?

Dec 2026 Fed Rate <=3.25% Probability15.0% (CME FedWatch Tool )
Salesforce Cloud Infra Budget Cut13% less for 2027 FY (Salesforce )
More Tech Layoffs 2026 vs 202545.7% implied probability (PredictIt )
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a reduced probability for a significant rate cut by late 2026. The tool projects a 15.0% probability that the Fed Funds Rate will be at or below 3.25% in December 2026, which represents a decrease of 100 basis points from the 4.25% projected for June 2026. This moderate probability of a rate cut is influenced by slowing inflation expectations, with Core PCE anticipated to fall to 2.9% by late 2026, alongside global growth concerns. However, significant uncertainty remains, with an 85.0% probability of rates stabilizing near 4.00%-4.25%.
Major tech firms are adjusting 2027 budgets due to sustained high interest rates. Bellwether firms like Salesforce and Oracle are already pre-announcing corporate budget adjustments in anticipation of continued higher interest rates. Salesforce's 2027 fiscal year budget allocated 13% less to cloud infrastructure projects compared to 2026, citing 'uncertain macroeconomic conditions' and a 74% year-over-year increase in interest expenses in Q2 2026. Similarly, Oracle delayed 30% of its planned 2027 capital expenditures, attributing this to 'interest rate sensitivity' and projecting approximately 1% workforce layoffs if rates remain above 4.0%.
Outlook for tech layoffs correlates directly with future Fed policy decisions. Prediction markets like PredictIt currently assign a 45.7% implied probability to 'More tech layoffs in 2026 than 2025?'. This outlook is heavily influenced by assumptions regarding Fed policy; a rate cut before 2027 would likely decrease this probability as tech firms could access cheaper credit and reallocate budgets, while a surprise rate hike could increase it to 55-60%. Historically, Fed rate cuts in 2019 correlated with a 2.3% fall in tech worker unemployment, whereas rate hikes during 2022-2023 coincided with 27% more layoffs in larger tech firms.

8. How Are North American Series B/C Funding Trends Affecting Layoffs?

2026 Q1 Funding$24.5 billion (32% QoQ increase) [^]
Q1 2026 AI Sector Share54% of Series B/C funding [^]
Tech (AI-centric) Layoffs (YoY)Down 42% [^]
North American Series B/C funding shows partial recovery driven by AI. Total capital invested in North American Series B and Series C funding rounds in 2026 is demonstrating a partial recovery, reaching 85% of H1 2025 levels. This recovery is primarily fueled by substantial investment in artificial intelligence. Q1 2026 registered $24.5 billion in investments, marking a 32% quarter-over-quarter increase, with AI/ML startups attracting 54% of that capital [^]. However, this rebound is uneven, as non-AI sectors are not experiencing comparable upturns.
Funding recovery inversely correlates with layoffs in AI-centric firms. The observed rebound in capital has shown an inverse relationship with layoff rates within AI-centric companies. Median cash runways for these firms have extended from 8 to 14 months, and layoffs have decreased by 42% year-over-year [^]. Conversely, non-AI technology segments are experiencing increased layoff rates, up 20%, largely due to persistent funding droughts and a strategic shift in venture capital allocations towards AI initiatives [^].
Broader factors suggest overall tech layoffs will likely increase in 2026. Despite the funding recovery benefiting AI, prediction markets indicate a 68% probability of more tech layoffs in 2026 compared to 2025 [^]. This suggests that macroeconomic stagnation and company overcorrection are significant contributors to headcount reductions, operating independently of direct venture funding levels. Companies are also encountering efficiency penalties in hiring as they transition towards AI-driven operations, which further complicates the layoff landscape, disproportionately impacting non-AI roles and specialized late-stage firms.

9. How Do Layoff Tracker Revisions Impact Future Predictions?

2024 Annual Layoffs152,922–153,000+ across ~550 companies [^]
2025 Draft Total~122,549–127,000 layoffs across ~257 companies [^]
2024 Layoff Revision15.7% upward revision [^]
Layoff trackers consistently revise initial figures upward due to underreporting. Trackers such as Layoffs.fyi and Crunchbase frequently adjust their initial estimates due to underreported events and delayed data. For instance, the 2024 annual layoff total saw a significant 15.7% upward revision, increasing from an initial draft of approximately 122,000 to about 153,000 by March 2025 [^]. This consistent upward adjustment indicates that post hoc discoveries of missed or late-reported layoffs typically elevate the final figures. Additionally, notable discrepancies exist between trackers, with Layoffs.fyi reporting global data (e.g., ~153,000 in 2024) compared to Crunchbase's U.S.-centric focus (95,667 in 2024), creating a 52% gap [^].
Similar upward adjustments are projected for 2025 totals. Based on the 2024 revision pattern, a comparable 15-20% upward adjustment is anticipated for the 2025 draft total of approximately 127,000, potentially raising it to around 147,000 by March 2026 [^]. This historical impact of revisions is crucial for prediction markets, especially for questions concerning future layoff trends like 'More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?'. Prediction markets may underprice the risk of these systemic revisions, failing to adequately account for the consistent undercounting in initial draft figures. A higher revised 2025 total would consequently make it more challenging for the 2026 figure to surpass it, thereby influencing market outcomes [^].
Crowdsourced methodologies contribute to initial underreporting and subsequent revisions. The crowdsourced nature of platforms like Layoffs.fyi, while extensive, introduces inherent biases and variability. These platforms often lack formal verification processes and suffer from timeliness issues [^], which lead to delayed adjustments and scope deficiencies. They frequently miss smaller startup closures, government contractor layoffs, or rapidly evolving sector-specific events in areas such as tech, AI, and crypto [^]. Consequently, initial layoff figures inherently carry a significant margin for upward adjustment; for example, late 2024 crypto layoffs were retroactively tallied in 2025 revisions [^].

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts and Events to Watch

The probability of more tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025 (baseline of approximately 127,000 U.S.-based tech workers) is influenced by several factors. Accelerated AI-driven automation is a primary driver, with major tech companies like Oracle reportedly planning significant job cuts, and Amazon, Salesforce, Meta, and UPS already announcing reductions citing AI integration and efficiency programs [^]. This trend targets roles across corporate services, customer support, and middle management. Persistent economic uncertainty, including elevated inflation and potential sustained higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, will continue to pressure companies to control costs [^]. Furthermore, a continued correction from post-pandemic overhiring, representing a "broader structural reset," alongside potential geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions, could prompt further workforce reductions into 2026 [^].
Conversely, a decrease in tech layoffs in 2026 could stem from a robust global economic recovery, which is projected to boost worldwide technology spending by 7.8% to $5.6 trillion, driven by continued AI investment [^] . This increased demand could foster hiring. Multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, with forecasts suggesting rates dropping to around 2.7-2.9% by year-end and J.P. Morgan expecting two cuts, would stimulate economic activity and reduce borrowing costs for tech companies, encouraging investment and job creation [^]. While AI displaces some roles, it is also expected to create new job categories and demand for specialized AI skills. Many companies may also have reached optimal staffing levels following substantial layoffs in 2023-2025, potentially reducing the need for further widespread cuts.
Critical events to monitor throughout 2026 include quarterly earnings reports from major tech companies, which will offer insights into performance and workforce plans. Federal Reserve FOMC meetings and monthly economic data releases, such as the US Consumer Price Index and employment reports, will be key indicators for economic sentiment and monetary policy [^]. The expiration of Jerome Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026 and the US Mid-term elections in November 2026 could also influence future policies. Ultimately, year-end tech layoff reports from trackers like Crunchbase and Layoffs.fyi for the full year 2026 will directly determine the outcome of the prediction market [^].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 31, 2027
  • Closes: March 01, 2027

11. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: The probability of more tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025 (baseline of approximately 127,000 U.S.-based tech workers) is influenced by several factors.
  • Trigger: Accelerated AI-driven automation is a primary driver, with major tech companies like Oracle reportedly planning significant job cuts, and Amazon, Salesforce, Meta, and UPS already announcing reductions citing AI integration and efficiency programs [^] .
  • Trigger: This trend targets roles across corporate services, customer support, and middle management.
  • Trigger: Persistent economic uncertainty, including elevated inflation and potential sustained higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, will continue to pressure companies to control costs [^] .

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 3 markets in this series

Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 1 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXLAYOFFSYINFO-25-0: YES (Feb 06, 2026)
  • LAYOFFSYINFO-25-0: NO (Dec 22, 2025)
  • LAYOFFSYINFO-24-390000: YES (Feb 08, 2025)