Jobs numbers in Feb 2026?
1. Executive Verdict
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0 | 96.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above 90,000 | 28.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above 50,000 | 65.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above 60,000 | 57.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above 70,000 | 41.0% | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Data
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above -25,000 | $0.98 | $0.04 | 98% |
| Above 0 | $0.96 | $0.05 | 96% |
| Above 10,000 | $0.95 | $0.07 | 95% |
| Above 20,000 | $0.92 | $0.11 | 92% |
| Above 30,000 | $0.87 | $0.19 | 87% |
| Above 40,000 | $0.79 | $0.25 | 79% |
| Above 50,000 | $0.65 | $0.36 | 65% |
| Above 60,000 | $0.57 | $0.47 | 57% |
| Above 70,000 | $0.41 | $0.60 | 41% |
| Above 80,000 | $0.35 | $0.68 | 35% |
| Above 90,000 | $0.28 | $0.76 | 28% |
| Above 100,000 | $0.23 | $0.79 | 23% |
| Above 125,000 | $0.15 | $0.89 | 15% |
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