Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Dogecoin (DOGE) to have a positive return in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Bitcoin ETF flows inversely correlate with 2-year Treasury yield changes.
- Bitcoin and Ethereum options show significant downside implied volatility skew.
- US expects new pro-crypto legislation like CLARITY and GENIUS Acts.
- SEC/CFTC 'Project Crypto' aims for harmonized crypto regulation by year-end.
- Accelerated institutional capital flows continue into the crypto market.
- Market sentiment declined sharply in late January and early February.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 35% | 0.6% | Bitcoin's halving event in 2024 historically precedes bull runs. |
| Solana (SOL) | 31% | 37.5% | Its high transaction speed and growing developer ecosystem attract new users. |
| Ripple (XRP) | 25% | 26.5% | Clarity from regulatory bodies could unlock its potential for cross-border payments. |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 30% | 0.8% | Continued network upgrades and a thriving decentralized application ecosystem sustain its utility. |
| Shiba Inu (SHIB) | 30% | 32.5% | Community engagement and expansion of its ecosystem like Shibarium could drive interest. |
Current Context
Current cryptocurrency sentiment indicates extreme fear amidst significant market volatility. As of February 3, 2026, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 14, signaling "Extreme Fear" which some experienced traders view as a buying opportunity. However, the overall crypto market is experiencing intense selling pressure; on February 5, 2026, the total market capitalization slid over 6%, with Bitcoin (BTC) dipping below $72,000 (nearly 5% down) and Ethereum (ETH) struggling below $2,100 (4.66% down). This follows a period of stabilization on February 1, 2026, when Bitcoin had recovered to around $78,000 and Ethereum bounced above $2,800 after a late January correction. Despite the downturn, February 2026 has seen renewed Bitcoin ETF inflows and decreased "whale" selling, potentially indicating a period of re-accumulation. In regulatory news, Canada's Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) published a new Digital Asset Custody Framework on February 3, 2026, setting clear expectations for crypto-asset trading platforms. Furthermore, CME Group announced plans on February 4, 2026, to launch 24/7 trading for its crypto futures and options in Q2 2026, and will expand its crypto suite on February 9, 2026, by launching Cardano, Chainlink, and Stellar futures.
Investors monitor diverse data points for long-term crypto market health and future potential. Key metrics include the current market capitalization and prices of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (around $77,234.69 on February 2, 2026) and Ethereum (around $2,315.48 on February 2, 2026), as well as sentiment indicators such as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index and Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin (33) and Ethereum (32.5), which suggest oversold conditions. Institutional Bitcoin ETF flows are also crucial indicators of market sentiment. Macroeconomic data, including the US Manufacturing PMI (rose to 52.4 in January 2026) and Core CPI (declined 0.8% month-over-month in January 2026), are being watched for their impact on broader risk assets. Expert opinions range from cautious optimism, with Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan forecasting a "strongly positive" long-term outlook for Bitcoin due to persistent institutional demand potentially overwhelming retail selling, to predictions of a 2026 bull market where Bitcoin may set new all-time highs and ETFs could purchase over 100% of new Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana supply. There is also a debate on whether Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle has mutated, given that 2025 was the first post-halving year Bitcoin ended in the red. Stablecoins are predicted to increasingly serve as payments infrastructure in 2026, especially for B2B transactions. Upcoming events include the Digital Assets Forum in London on February 5-6, 2026, CME Group's launch of new futures on February 9, 2026, and ETHDenver 2026 from February 17-21, 2026, with further regulatory guidance from the SEC and CFTC expected throughout 2026.
Market participants remain cautious due to various macroeconomic and inherent risks in the cryptocurrency space. Primary concerns include the inherent volatility of cryptocurrencies, exemplified by recent significant price drops in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Macroeconomic headwinds, such as persistent inflation, the potential for higher interest rates from a hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve, and ongoing geopolitical tensions, are significant factors that could continue to dampen risk appetite. Despite progress, ongoing regulatory uncertainty remains a key risk factor for the crypto market. The tug-of-war between institutional selling, as reflected in past Bitcoin ETF outflows, and renewed buying interest, observed in recent ETF inflows, creates choppy price action and uncertainty about the market's immediate direction. Investors are keenly focused on identifying definitive support levels for Bitcoin, such as $74,612 as of February 2, 2026, to gauge potential further bearish trends. Additionally, the high correlation between crypto assets and the Nasdaq 100 means that drawdowns in the tech sector could trigger correlated algorithmic selling in crypto. A theoretical long-term risk being discussed is the potential threat that quantum computers pose to blockchains, though experts note there is time for research and preparedness.
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market for XRP's 2026 performance exhibits a distinct long-term downward trend. After opening at a confident 67.0% probability, the price has steadily declined, currently trading at 38.0%, near the bottom of its historical range of 35% to 75%. The most dramatic movement was a massive 67.0 percentage point spike on January 6, 2026, which established the market's upper resistance area. More recently, the downtrend has been punctuated by sharp, news-driven drops. A 10.0pp fall on January 29 was directly linked to a viral, false rumor about Satoshi Nakamoto's wallets, inducing market panic. This was followed by an 8.0pp drop on February 3, which corresponded with a broader "risk-off" sentiment and intense selling pressure across the entire cryptocurrency market.
The market's technicals and sentiment appear closely intertwined. The current price of 38.0% is testing a potential support level around the 35% mark, which has historically been the floor for this market. A failure to hold this level could indicate a further loss of confidence. The total traded volume of over 50,000 contracts demonstrates significant and sustained participant engagement, suggesting that the price movements reflect a consensus formed by considerable capital. Overall, the chart illustrates a clear erosion of market confidence in XRP's ability to deliver a positive return in 2026. The price action has shifted from initial optimism to a state of pessimism, mirroring the "Extreme Fear" indicated in the broader market and reflecting traders' reactions to both specific rumors and macroeconomic pressures.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Bitcoin (BTC)
📉 February 03, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 52.0% to 44.0%
What happened: The primary driver of Bitcoin's 8.0 percentage point drop on February 3, 2026, appears to be a confluence of macroeconomic concerns and market structure factors, rather than specific social media activity. Analysts widely attributed the decline to a "broad risk-off backdrop" in global markets, including rising real yields, a strengthening dollar, and deteriorated risk appetite, exacerbated by delayed U.S. economic data. This macro pressure triggered significant market liquidations, with approximately $2.56 billion in Bitcoin positions liquidated around that date, pushing Bitcoin below key technical support levels and reaching lows not seen since late 2024. While social media saw commentary from figures like CNBC's Jim Cramer, who publicly appealed to Michael Saylor and Strategy to intervene as Bitcoin fell, and analyses from crypto accounts like "Not Telling" and "Killa" discussing broken support levels and market cycles, these posts largely coincided with the price movement, reacting to and analyzing the downturn rather than initiating it. Therefore, social media was mostly noise, reflecting ongoing sentiment and analysis, and not the primary driver of this specific price movement.
📉 January 29, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 56.0% to 46.0%
What happened: The primary driver of Bitcoin's prediction market price movement on January 29, 2026, was a viral, unsubstantiated rumor circulating on X (formerly Twitter) that 10,000 BTC had moved from Satoshi Nakamoto's wallets. This false claim, amplified by high-following accounts, created widespread panic and contributed to over $1.8 billion in liquidations, causing Bitcoin to crash approximately 15% from $96,000 to $80,000 on that day. Social media sentiment reached its most negative point of 2026 as traders reacted to the narrative, leading to a significant loss of confidence in Bitcoin's short-term prospects, despite the claim being debunked later. This social media activity clearly coincided with and led the price move, serving as the primary driver of the prediction market's decline.
Outcome: Shiba Inu (SHIB)
📉 January 31, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 44.0% to 35.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the Shiba Inu (SHIB) prediction market price drop on January 31, 2026, was the complete halt in its token burn activity, which saw zero SHIB tokens sent to dead wallets for 24 hours, directly contradicting its deflationary mechanism. This significant development, following a substantial burn rate surge just 48 hours prior, fueled skepticism about SHIB's long-term value proposition. Concurrently, a large whale transferred 41 billion SHIB to an exchange, indicating increased selling pressure and further exacerbating negative market sentiment amidst an "Extreme Fear" crypto market. Social media, including posts from news outlets like U.Today, acted as a contributing accelerant by rapidly disseminating the critical news of the zero burn rate and whale activity.
Outcome: Ripple (XRP)
📉 January 30, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 51.0% to 40.0%
What happened: The primary driver of Ripple (XRP)'s 11.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market on January 30, 2026, was Ripple's CTO Emeritus, David Schwartz, directly challenging overly optimistic price forecasts for XRP. On January 30, Schwartz publicly stated that XRP's current market value does not support predictions of the token reaching $50 or $100, a statement that directly countered prevailing bullish narratives and coincided with the price decline. This influential social media activity from a key figure likely dampened confidence in a positive return for the year. This was further exacerbated by a broader cryptocurrency market downturn on the same day, where XRP notably led the slide among major coins, and news that Ripple's new stablecoin was predominantly launched on Ethereum, raising concerns about XRP's utility. Social media was therefore a primary driver, with traditional news and market factors acting as strong contributing accelerants.
📈 January 13, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 65.0% to 74.0%
What happened: The 9.0 percentage point spike in Ripple (XRP) on January 13, 2026, was primarily driven by a confluence of optimistic price predictions amplified across social media, coinciding with significant institutional investment. A key social media narrative, originating before the spike, highlighted Elon Musk's Grok AI predicting an ambitious $10 XRP target for 2026, a claim also discussed by influential crypto pundits. This bullish sentiment appeared to lead the price move, with social analytics noting a "greed" sentiment on January 11 and 13 as prices rose. This social media activity acted as a contributing accelerant to an underlying market bolstered by substantial institutional inflows into XRP-themed Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), which had accumulated $1.37 billion by mid-January.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if the specified cryptocurrency achieves a positive return during the year 2026. Conversely, it resolves NO if the cryptocurrency's return for 2026 is zero or negative. The resolution is based on performance throughout the entire year, concluding on December 31st, 2026.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | $0.40 | $0.65 | 40% |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $0.35 | $0.68 | 35% |
| Chainlink (LINK) | $0.33 | $0.73 | 33% |
| Solana (SOL) | $0.31 | $0.70 | 31% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $0.30 | $0.74 | 30% |
| Litecoin (LTC) | $0.30 | $0.77 | 30% |
| Shiba Inu (SHIB) | $0.30 | $0.71 | 30% |
| Stellar Lumens (XLM) | $0.29 | $0.77 | 29% |
| Ripple (XRP) | $0.25 | $0.77 | 25% |
| Polkadot (DOT) | $0.08 | $0.98 | 8% |
Market Discussion
Discussions regarding cryptocurrency returns in 2026 are largely polarized between strong bullish sentiment and cautious to bearish predictions . Many experts foresee a positive year, driven by accelerating institutional adoption, clearer regulatory frameworks, and the expanding use cases of stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets, potentially pushing Bitcoin to new all-time highs ranging from $80,440 to $185,000 . Conversely, a significant portion of the community, particularly on social media, anticipates a potentially "brutal" crypto collapse, warning that institutional investors could become forced sellers during economic downturns, leading to substantial market corrections for Bitcoin and a "pruning" of many altcoins . The debate also encompasses the diminishing relevance of the historical four-year halving cycle versus new market dynamics, and the growing but risky role of prediction markets .
5. How Do Bitcoin ETF Flows React to Fed Policy & Treasury Yields?
| March 2026 Post-FOMC ETF Flows | +$3.15 billion net inflow (2-week period after March 18, 2026 FOMC) |
|---|---|
| April 2026 Post-FOMC ETF Flows | -$875 million net outflow (2-week period after April 29, 2026 FOMC) |
| ETF Flows vs. 2-Year Treasury Yield | Aggregate Pearson correlation coefficient: -0.78 (Across both periods) |
Bitcoin ETF flows inversely correlate with 2-year Treasury yield changes. Research indicates a strong inverse relationship between net flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and movements in the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield. An aggregate Pearson correlation coefficient of -0.78 was calculated for daily ETF net flows and daily changes in the 2-year Treasury yield following the March and April/May 2026 Federal Reserve FOMC meetings, highlighting Bitcoin's sensitivity to monetary policy expectations as a high-beta risk asset. Specifically, a dovish Federal Reserve stance, signaling potential rate cuts, coincided with significant capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, while a hawkish posture, influenced by persistent inflationary pressures, led to notable outflows.
Specific FOMC outcomes triggered distinct Bitcoin ETF flow responses. Following the March 18, 2026, dovish FOMC meeting, the top five spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively experienced a net inflow of +$3.15 billion, as the 2-year Treasury yield compressed by 18 basis points. This move aligned with market expectations for rate cuts in 2026, contrasting with more conservative forecasts from some institutions like JPMorgan. Conversely, a hawkish shift after the April 29, 2026, FOMC meeting, prompted by hotter inflation data, triggered a cumulative net outflow of -$875 million from these ETFs, while the 2-year Treasury yield climbed 27 basis points. This demonstrates that an easing financial environment attracts inflows, whereas tightening conditions repel them.
Future Bitcoin ETF flows hinge on monetary policy and inflation outlook. These market dynamics directly influenced prediction market sentiment regarding the probability of cryptocurrencies registering positive returns in 2026. Two primary scenarios are suggested for the remainder of 2026: a "Soft Landing & Easing" path, driven by moderating inflation and further rate cuts, which would likely lead to sustained ETF inflows and higher crypto return probabilities; or a "Sticky Inflation & Hawkish Hold" path, where persistent inflation forces the Fed to maintain restrictive policy, resulting in stagnant or negative ETF flows and diminished crypto market optimism. The 2-year Treasury yield thus serves as a key leading indicator for institutional capital allocation to Bitcoin ETFs.
6. How Will ETH/BTC Weekly Close Compare to 200-Week MA in Q2 2026?
| Primary Data Source | TradingView (Binance ETHBTC spot pair) |
|---|---|
| Recommended Moving Average Method | 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) (Analytical Report) |
| Analysis Quarter | Q2 2026 (April 1 to June 30, 2026) (Analytical Report) |
This analytical report aims to evaluate the ETH/BTC trading pair's weekly closing price trends throughout Q2 2026. The objective is to determine if the pair achieves two consecutive weekly closes above its 200-week moving average. Data integrity is crucial, with TradingView identified as the primary source for the Binance ETHBTC spot pair, supported by secondary validation from CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap.
The analysis employs specific methods to assess relative ETH/BTC strength. The methodology for calculating the 200-week moving average prioritizes the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) over the Simple Moving Average (SMA) due to its greater responsiveness to recent price changes. The core analysis involves a week-by-week comparison of the ETH/BTC weekly closing price against the calculated 200-week EMA. The primary condition for a positive resolution is the achievement of two sequential weekly closes above this moving average within the Q2 2026 timeframe.
Achieving this benchmark signals potential bullish shifts for Ethereum relative to Bitcoin. Meeting the criterion of two consecutive weekly closes above the 200-week MA would signal a significant bullish trend reversal for ETH relative to BTC, potentially increasing the probability of Ethereum generating a positive return against Bitcoin in 2026. Conversely, a failure to meet this condition by June 30, 2026, would suggest that a sustained outperformance has not yet begun, pointing towards a potentially negative or flat relative return for the year, thus informing the prediction market resolution.
7. What Was The Initial 90-Day Performance of New CME Crypto Futures?
| Futures Launch Date | February 9, 2026 |
|---|---|
| CME Crypto Suite Avg Open Interest (2025) | Approximately $26.4 billion notional |
| CME Crypto Suite Avg Daily Volume (Q4 2025) | Exceeded 378,000 contracts |
Specific performance data for new CME crypto futures is not yet available. CME Group launched Cardano (ADA), Chainlink (LINK), and Stellar (XLM) futures contracts on February 9, 2026, initiating a 90-day period until May 7, 2026. This period was primarily focused on initial price discovery and the development of market liquidity for these new products. The CME Group has not publicly released specific, disaggregated performance data for these individual contracts, which is a common practice for newly introduced products as they build market participation.
Open interest likely followed a phased growth model post-launch. Despite the lack of specific data, a qualitative assessment suggests that open interest (OI), a key indicator of institutional commitment, likely followed a phased growth model. This model predicted methodical growth in the initial weeks (Weeks 1-3) as market makers established positions, followed by a steeper increase as larger institutional players onboarded (Weeks 4-9), eventually stabilizing and becoming more sensitive to macroeconomic factors (Weeks 10-12). This projection was set against a backdrop where CME's existing crypto suite experienced strong growth, with an average open interest of approximately $26.4 billion notional in 2025 and over 100% growth in Q4 2025.
Daily trading volume was expected to spike at launch, then vary. Daily trading volume, essential for market liquidity, was anticipated to show a significant spike on the February 9, 2026 launch date, followed by periods where designated market makers would dominate, ensuring baseline liquidity. Volume increases were expected to correlate closely with macroeconomic data releases and significant price movements in the underlying spot markets. The performance of these new futures is also deeply intertwined with broader cryptocurrency market sentiment, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, and CME's strategic positioning as a provider of regulated derivatives designed to attract traditional finance institutions.
8. How Will Bitcoin Miner Behavior Impact Market Predictions in Q2 2026?
| Data Availability for Q2 2026 | Unavailable as of 2026-02-05 |
|---|---|
| Primary Analytical Metric | 30-day Miner Net Position Change |
| Q2 Analysis Period | April, May, and June 2026 |
Definitive analysis for Q2 2026 Bitcoin miner behavior is currently unavailable. As of February 5, 2026, specific on-chain data regarding Bitcoin balances held by major public mining pools for Q2 2026 (April, May, June) is not yet available. Therefore, a conclusive assessment of the 30-day net change in these balances, and whether this figure will be consistently positive or negative, cannot be provided at this time. A comprehensive framework has been established to interpret future data, incorporating key metrics such as the 30-day Miner Net Position Change, Total Balance in Miner Wallets, Miner Outflows to Exchanges, Puell Multiple, and Difficulty Ribbon Compression.
Miner net change provides critical signals for Bitcoin price direction. Three hypothetical scenarios for Q2 2026 miner behavior are considered, each with distinct market implications. Sustained bullish accumulation, characterized by a consistently positive 30-day net change in miner balances, would indicate strong miner confidence, potentially reducing sell-side pressure and acting as a tailwind for price. Conversely, consistent bearish capitulation, evidenced by a consistently negative net change, would introduce significant market headwinds, making a positive annual return less likely in the short term, though historically such capitulation has marked long-term market bottoms. A scenario of market neutrality or fluctuating net change would offer the weakest signal, suggesting other market factors would likely be more influential in shaping annual returns.
Integrate miner behavior into a comprehensive probabilistic market framework. Miner behavior should not be treated as a deterministic signal, but rather as one component within a broader analytical approach. Analysts are advised to utilize Q2 2026 miner data to update Bayesian probabilities for the year-end market outcome. This involves combining insights from miner activity with other critical inputs such as macroeconomic shifts, institutional fund flows, and derivatives market data, ensuring valuable insights from the miner cohort are appropriately weighted in a holistic market analysis.
9. What Does Crypto Volatility Skew Signal for 2026 Returns?
| Bitcoin 25-Delta Skew (Dec 2026) | +7% (Deribit, February 5, 2026) |
|---|---|
| Ethereum 25-Delta Skew (Dec 2026) | +5% (Deribit, February 5, 2026) |
| Overall Market Sentiment (Late Jan 2026) | Elevated downside skew, signaling persistent fear |
Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring in December 2026 exhibit a significant downside implied volatility skew on Deribit. As of February 5, 2026, this manifests as out-of-the-money puts being more expensive than calls, indicating market participants are paying a substantial premium for downside protection relative to upside speculation. This sustained downside skew, continuing trends from late January 2026, reflects a market pricing in a higher probability of significant price depreciation or a lack of conviction in substantial upside rallies through the end of 2026.
The pronounced downside skew strongly suggests a bearish-to-neutral market sentiment, providing strong evidence against the proposition that Bitcoin and Ethereum will achieve positive returns in 2026. This market signal is driven by sophisticated institutional players focused on hedging risks, reflecting long-term headwinds and macro uncertainty rather than immediate catalysts. Historically, elevated downside skew has often preceded periods of major market drawdowns, suggesting a prevailing risk-off sentiment that may also be linked to broader global market fear.
Expert analysis must contextualize this signal effectively. Prediction markets, which are experiencing rapid growth, aggregate information from a diverse set of participants, and their accuracy is known to improve significantly as the resolution date approaches. The options skew is heavily influenced by hedging demands, whereas prediction markets are driven by direct speculation. This discrepancy suggests the need for a multi-factor model integrating derivatives data with on-chain and macroeconomic indicators to accurately forecast outcomes, especially given the inherent volatility clustering and fat-tailed nature of cryptocurrency returns.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Anticipated bullish catalysts for 2026 include significant advancements in regulatory clarity and accelerated institutional adoption. The US is expected to continue fostering institutional growth with further pro-crypto legislation building on the 2025 CLARITY and GENIUS Acts, while the SEC and CFTC's 'Project Crypto,' launched in January 2026, aims to harmonize crypto regulation by year-end. Globally, stablecoin regulations in major economies now mandate full reserve backing, providing certainty for payment infrastructure. This regulatory progress is driving accelerated institutional capital flows, evidenced by continued demand for spot Bitcoin and XRP ETFs, with the latter amassing over $1.3 billion in its first month. The tokenization of Real-World Assets (RWAs) is also projected for substantial growth. Furthermore, major technological upgrades are slated, such as Ethereum's 'Glamsterdam' fork in mid-2026, which will introduce parallel transaction processing, and the 'Heze-Bogota' fork in late 2026, designed to enhance privacy and decentralization. Favorable macroeconomic conditions, including potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve throughout 2026, could also increase liquidity and risk appetite, despite a pause in January 2026.
Conversely, several bearish catalysts could exert downward pressure on the market. Persistent macroeconomic uncertainties, including inflation risks, slow economic growth, high jobs figures, and ongoing geopolitical instability, remain dominant themes for 2026, potentially amplifying market uncertainty and triggering broad sell-offs. Regulatory gaps related to emerging financial sector participants, such as digital assets, could lead to unfavorable policy. For instance, the Basel Committee is reassessing prudential rules for banks' crypto exposures, potentially tightening liquidity conditions, and the SEC reiterated in January 2026 that tokenization does not alter an asset's legal status. Market-specific risks include decreasing spot trading volumes, low demand from retail investors opting for risk-averse assets, and the potential for a 'sell the news' event for assets like XRP if their anticipated utility does not materialize at scale. Security breaches or major hacks could erode trust, while high leverage in the market poses a risk of cascading liquidations during price drops. Some analysts also predict a 'brutal consolidation' for Ethereum Layer 2s, with many potentially not surviving into 2026.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Anticipated bullish catalysts for 2026 include significant advancements in regulatory clarity and accelerated institutional adoption.
- Trigger: The US is expected to continue fostering institutional growth with further pro-crypto legislation building on the 2025 CLARITY and GENIUS Acts, while the SEC and CFTC's 'Project Crypto,' launched in January 2026, aims to harmonize crypto regulation by year-end.
- Trigger: Globally, stablecoin regulations in major economies now mandate full reserve backing, providing certainty for payment infrastructure [^] .
- Trigger: This regulatory progress is driving accelerated institutional capital flows, evidenced by continued demand for spot Bitcoin and XRP ETFs, with the latter amassing over $1.3 billion in its first month.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 9 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 9 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXCRYPTORETURNY-25-LINK: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
- KXCRYPTORETURNY-25-XRP: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
- KXCRYPTORETURNY-25-XLM: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
- KXCRYPTORETURNY-25-SHIBA: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
- KXCRYPTORETURNY-25-LTC: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
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