Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Bitcoin (BTC) to have a positive return in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- All deep research requests failed due to internal server errors.
- No specific market catalysts are currently available for analysis.
- A 12 percentage point market drop occurred on February 19, 2026.
- February 17, 2026 saw a 12 percentage point market spike.
- The prediction market for 2026 returns closes on January 1, 2027.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 37.0% | 34.0% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
| Ripple (XRP) | 26.0% | 27.5% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
| Solana (SOL) | 33.0% | 30.0% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 30.0% | 24.0% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
| Chainlink (LINK) | 34.0% | 26.5% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market exhibits a clear and sustained downward trend. The contract, which represents the perceived probability of Dogecoin having a positive return in 2026, opened at a confident 61.0% but has since fallen to its current price of 36.0%. This long-term decline in sentiment has been punctuated by several sharp drops in February 2026, including a 9.0 percentage point fall on February 3rd, a significant 19.0 percentage point drop on February 5th, and another 8.0 percentage point drop on February 16th. As no specific news or external developments were provided in the context, the direct causes for these sudden decreases in price cannot be determined from the available information.
The market has seen a total volume of 43,252 contracts traded, indicating consistent participation over its 659 data points. From a technical perspective, the price has established a historical range between $0.25 and $0.62. The low of $0.25 appears to be a significant support level that has held in the past, while the opening price near $0.62 has acted as the peak resistance. The current price of $0.36 is a key level, with sample data suggesting the market has consolidated around this point previously. Overall, the price action reflects a strong and persistent shift in market sentiment from optimistic to pessimistic regarding DOGE's performance in 2026, with recent sharp declines suggesting an acceleration of this bearish conviction among traders.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Chainlink (LINK)
📉 February 19, 2026: 12.0pp drop
Price decreased from 38.0% to 26.0%
What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}
📈 February 17, 2026: 12.0pp spike
Price increased from 27.0% to 39.0%
What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}
📉 February 15, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 31.0% to 20.0%
What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}
Outcome: Bitcoin (BTC)
📉 February 16, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 38.0% to 30.0%
What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}
Outcome: Ethereum (ETH)
📈 February 13, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 19.0% to 29.0%
What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided page content, the market asks whether specified cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026. However, the exact triggers for YES/NO resolution, specific key dates/deadlines, and any special settlement conditions are not detailed within this snippet.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | $0.41 | $0.64 | 41% |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $0.37 | $0.67 | 37% |
| Chainlink (LINK) | $0.34 | $0.70 | 34% |
| Shiba Inu (SHIB) | $0.34 | $0.73 | 34% |
| Solana (SOL) | $0.33 | $0.72 | 33% |
| Litecoin (LTC) | $0.32 | $0.73 | 32% |
| Stellar Lumens (XLM) | $0.31 | $0.74 | 31% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $0.30 | $0.75 | 30% |
| Polkadot (DOT) | $0.26 | $0.78 | 26% |
| Ripple (XRP) | $0.26 | $0.75 | 26% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What Was the Outcome of the Research Query?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Information Retrieved | Zero data points |
Technical issues prevented retrieval of requested Bitcoin market data. During the research process for cumulative net flows of the top 5 spot Bitcoin ETFs (by AUM) and institutional open interest in CME Bitcoin futures for the first half of 2026, an internal server error occurred. This technical issue specifically impacted the retrieval of data related to both Bitcoin ETF performance and the CFTC's weekly Commitments of Traders report.
Due to the error, no specific findings are available. As a direct consequence of this technical failure, it was not possible to retrieve any specific findings, data, or detailed information pertinent to the original query. Therefore, the research yielded no content, making it impossible to provide an answer regarding the requested Bitcoin market metrics.
6. Why Was Research Unsuccessful Due to an Internal Server Error?
| Research Outcome | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Internal Server Error |
| Data Availability | None |
Technical issues prevented completion of the requested research. The system encountered an 'Internal Server Error,' which critically hindered its ability to successfully retrieve or process the necessary information. This technical impediment meant that the research query regarding Ethereum's quarterly net issuance for Q1 and Q2 2026, and its comparison to the growth rate of Total Value Locked (TVL) on major Layer 2 networks such as Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base, could not be executed.
Consequently, no specific research findings are available at this time. Due to the inability to access or generate content as a result of the technical issue, no specific data points, key metrics, or analytical summaries could be produced. Therefore, there are no findings to report for this research query.
7. Why Was Research On This Topic Unsuccessful?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Information Retrieved | Zero |
Research retrieval failed due to an internal server error. An attempt to gather information regarding the precise legislative status of major US digital asset market structure bills, such as the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21), by July 1, 2026, was unsuccessful. The research query encountered an internal server error, which prevented the retrieval of any relevant information or data. This issue was identified as a problem on the server side rather than with the query itself, making it impossible to gather specific findings.
No specific findings or data are currently available. Consequently, due to this server error, no specific findings, data points, or supporting citations could be extracted from the intended sources. Therefore, the requested summary and data concerning the legislative status of these bills, including whether a floor vote has been scheduled in either the House or Senate, cannot be provided at this time based on the unsuccessful research attempt.
8. What Was the Outcome of the Research Request?
| Research Status | Internal Server Error |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | Not available |
| Content Generation | Unable to proceed due to error |
Research execution failed due to an internal server error. The intended research, which aimed to analyze the trend in the 'Kimchi Premium' on South Korean exchanges and assess potential quarter-over-quarter increases in combined daily trading volume for BTC/KRW and ETH/KRW pairs on Upbit and Bithumb for Q2 2026, could not be successfully completed. An 'Internal Server Error' was encountered, preventing the research process from executing and extracting the required information.
No specific findings or data were generated. Consequently, the system was unable to retrieve any relevant information pertinent to the initial research question. This inability to gather data meant that no specific data points, statistics, or detailed paragraphs could be produced, indicating a failure in the backend process responsible for data collection.
9. Why Was Research Data Unavailable for This Request?
| Research Status | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Internal Server Error |
| Data Availability | None |
An internal server error prevented the retrieval of requested Bitcoin cycle data. During the research process, a critical internal server error was encountered, which unfortunately prevented the successful retrieval of information. This issue occurred when attempting to assess key Bitcoin cycle-timing indicators such as the MVRV Z-Score and the Puell Multiple for mid-2026, relative to their positions 24 months after previous halvings.
The system could not access or process data for analysis. This technical problem indicates an underlying issue within the system's ability to access or process the required on-chain analytics data. Consequently, the system was unable to generate any specific findings for the requested query, which aimed to determine if the cycle is following historical appreciation patterns or showing signs of premature exhaustion.
No data points, metrics, or insights were available for reporting. As a direct result of the server error, no relevant data points, specific metrics, or detailed insights regarding the MVRV Z-Score and Puell Multiple could be extracted or summarized. The system was therefore unable to provide any content for the table data or the analytical paragraphs intended to address the original research question.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis not available.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis not available.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 9 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 9 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXCRYPTORETURNY-25-LINK: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
- KXCRYPTORETURNY-25-XRP: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
- KXCRYPTORETURNY-25-XLM: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
- KXCRYPTORETURNY-25-SHIBA: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
- KXCRYPTORETURNY-25-LTC: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
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