Ethereum price range on Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Q1 2026 saw -$3.2 billion in US spot ETH ETF outflows.
- Sustained ETH ETF outflows indicate a lack of institutional demand.
- 40-50% of ETH supply staked by March 2026 reduces circulating supply.
- High ETH staking percentage creates significant supply scarcity, supporting prices.
- Total stablecoin market reached $315 billion in Q1 2026, boosting liquidity.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2,050 to 2,089.99 | 6.0% | 5.1% | Consistent demand and moderate market stability support this price range. |
| $1,089.99 or below | 2.0% | 1.7% | A significant market downturn or regulatory action could drive prices to this low range. |
| $2,130 to 2,169.99 | 11.0% | 9.1% | Continued DeFi adoption and healthy network growth could push prices into this bracket. |
| $2,090 to 2,129.99 | 8.0% | 6.7% | Gradual bullish sentiment and steady ecosystem development may drive prices to this level. |
| $2,010 to 2,049.99 | 6.0% | 5.1% | Mild bearish pressure or general market consolidation could keep prices in this bracket. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For the $2,170 to $2,209.99 price range, a YES resolution is triggered if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT on April 10, 2026, falls within this specific range. A NO resolution occurs if the ERTI average at that time does not fall within the stated range, as this event is mutually exclusive. The market opened on April 3, 2026, at 4:00 PM EDT, closes on April 10, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT, and has a projected payout at 5:06 PM EDT on the same day.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2,130 to 2,169.99 | $0.11 | $0.94 | 11% |
| $2,210 to 2,249.99 | $0.16 | $0.88 | 11% |
| $1,970 to 2,009.99 | $0.04 | $1.00 | 10% |
| $2,170 to 2,209.99 | $0.15 | $0.90 | 9% |
| $2,250 to 2,289.99 | $0.12 | $0.89 | 9% |
| $2,290 to 2,329.99 | $0.15 | $0.89 | 9% |
| $2,090 to 2,129.99 | $0.07 | $0.96 | 8% |
| $1,930 to 1,969.99 | $0.03 | $1.00 | 7% |
| $2,010 to 2,049.99 | $0.04 | $0.99 | 6% |
| $2,050 to 2,089.99 | $0.05 | $0.98 | 6% |
| $2,330 to 2,369.99 | $0.10 | $0.94 | 6% |
| $2,370 to 2,409.99 | $0.08 | $0.96 | 4% |
| $1,810 to 1,849.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 3% |
| $1,890 to 1,929.99 | $0.03 | $1.00 | 3% |
| $2,410 to 2,449.99 | $0.05 | $0.98 | 3% |
| $1,089.99 or below | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $1,850 to 1,889.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $2,450 to 2,489.99 | $0.03 | $0.99 | 2% |
| $2,490 to 2,529.99 | $0.03 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $1,090 to 1,129.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $2,530 to 2,569.99 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $2,570 to 2,609.99 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $2,610 to 2,649.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $2,650 to 2,689.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $2,690 to 2,729.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $2,730 to 2,769.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $2,770 to 2,809.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $2,810 to 2,849.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $2,850 to 2,889.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $2,890 to 2,929.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $2,930 to 2,969.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $2,970 to 3,009.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $1,130 to 1,169.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $1,170 to 1,209.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $1,210 to 1,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $1,250 to 1,289.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $1,290 to 1,329.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $1,330 to 1,369.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $1,370 to 1,409.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $1,410 to 1,449.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $1,450 to 1,489.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $1,490 to 1,529.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $1,530 to 1,569.99 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $1,570 to 1,609.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $1,610 to 1,649.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $1,650 to 1,689.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $1,690 to 1,729.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $1,730 to 1,769.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $1,770 to 1,809.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $3,010 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. What Were US Spot Ethereum ETF Inflows in Q1 2026?
| Cumulative Net Inflows Q1 2026 | -$3.2 billion [^] |
|---|---|
| March 2026 Flow Trend | Outflows observed [^] |
| Specific ETF Outflow Q1 2026 | $7.1 million [^] |
5. Are Layer 2 Network Transaction Volumes Predicted for Q1 2026?
| Q1 2026 L2 Transaction Forecast | No direct prediction available from provided sources [^] |
|---|---|
| Current L2 Activity Data Source | L2BEAT [^] |
| Current Top L2 Networks Examples | Arbitrum One, OP Mainnet, Base, Linea, zkSync Era [^] |
6. What was the total stablecoin supply in Q1 2026?
| Total Stablecoin Supply (Q1 2026) | $315 billion [^] |
|---|---|
| USDT/USDC Supply Jan 1, 2026 | Not explicitly provided in research [^] |
| USDC Growth vs. USDT | Outpacing Tether (USDT) for second consecutive year [^] |
7. What Percentage of Ethereum Supply Is Projected to Be Staked by 2026?
| Current Staked ETH Supply | 30-32% (late 2023) [^] |
|---|---|
| Projected Staked ETH Supply (March 1, 2026) | 40-50% [^] |
| Trend for ETH Staking | Accelerating Ether supply crunch due to increased staking [^] |
8. Was March 2026 ETH Call-to-Put Open Interest Ratio Available?
| Specific Ratio for March 2026 ETH | Not determinable from provided research [^] |
|---|---|
| $6,500 ETH Call Open Interest (early Dec 2025) | $383 million (one report) [^] |
| Total BTC/ETH Options Open Interest (Dec 2025 expiry) | Approximately $27-28 billion [^] |
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: April 10, 2026
- Expiration: April 17, 2026
- Closes: April 10, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXETH-26APR0800-T2839.99: NO (Apr 08, 2026)
- KXETH-26APR0800-T1380: NO (Apr 08, 2026)
- KXETH-26APR0800-B2830: NO (Apr 08, 2026)
- KXETH-26APR0800-B2810: NO (Apr 08, 2026)
- KXETH-26APR0800-B2790: NO (Apr 08, 2026)
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