Dogecoin price on Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Broader crypto market faces risk-off mood and bearish sentiment by March 2026.
- Dogecoin price correlates with overall crypto market sentiment.
- Dogecoin 'whale' addresses show a significant accumulation trend.
- No explicit Dogecoin integration details for X by Q1 2026.
- GigaWallet and Layer-2 updates are not confirmed by January 2026.
- Institutional adoption of Dogecoin increased through new ETF offerings by 2025.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| $0.095 or above | 50.0% | 48.7% | Market higher by 1.3pp |
| $0.155 or above | 3.0% | 1.9% | Market higher by 1.1pp |
| $0.005 or above | 99.0% | 99.0% | Model and market aligned |
| $0.1 or above | 17.0% | 15.9% | Market higher by 1.1pp |
| $0.085 or above | 86.0% | 78.7% | Market higher by 7.3pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) is above $0.0949999 at 5 PM EDT on April 10, 2026. Conversely, it resolves to "No" if the average is $0.0949999 or below at that time. The market closes for trading at 5:00 PM EDT on April 10, 2026, with a projected payout at 5:35 PM EDT, and settlement is solely based on the specified CF Benchmarks index.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| $0.005 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| $0.085 or above | $0.87 | $0.40 | 86% |
| $0.09 or above | $0.99 | $0.96 | 59% |
| $0.095 or above | $0.50 | $0.61 | 50% |
| $0.1 or above | $0.39 | $0.92 | 17% |
| $0.105 or above | $1.00 | $1.00 | 6% |
| $0.155 or above | $0.07 | $1.00 | 3% |
| $0.16 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $0.165 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $0.175 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $0.18 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $0.185 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $0.19 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $0.195 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $0.2 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $0.205 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $0.21 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $0.01 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| $0.015 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| $0.02 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| $0.025 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| $0.03 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| $0.035 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| $0.04 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| $0.045 or above | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $0.05 or above | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $0.055 or above | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $0.06 or above | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $0.065 or above | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $0.07 or above | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $0.075 or above | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $0.08 or above | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $0.11 or above | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $0.115 or above | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $0.12 or above | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $0.125 or above | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $0.13 or above | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $0.135 or above | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $0.14 or above | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $0.145 or above | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $0.15 or above | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $0.17 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. What is the progress of Dogecoin integration into X by Q1 2026?
| X Money Launch | Announced for April [^] |
|---|---|
| Dogecoin Price Impact | Increased after X Money announcements [^] |
| X Payments Licenses | Holds money transmitter licenses in various U.S. states [^] |
5. What Are Dogecoin Whale Accumulation Trends and Future Predictions?
| Recent Whale Activity | Accumulation trend by addresses holding 10M-1B DOGE [^] |
|---|---|
| Accumulated DOGE Quantity | 4.72 billion DOGE recently accumulated by whales [^] |
| Future Prediction Availability | No specific forecasts for Q3 2024 - Q1 2026 accumulation, distribution, or exchange flows [^] |
6. Are Dogecoin GigaWallet & Layer-2 Solutions Shipped by January 2026?
| GigaWallet Shipped Status by Jan 2026 | Not definitively confirmed as completed [^] |
|---|---|
| Layer-2 Scaling Shipped Status by Jan 2026 | Not definitively confirmed as completed [^] |
| Key Development Deadline | January 2026 [^] |
7. How Does Dogecoin Correlate with Bitcoin and Crypto Market?
| Dogecoin Correlation | Strong with Bitcoin and broader crypto market through 2025 [^] |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin Options Volatility | Hit three-year high [^] |
| Crypto Market Sentiment (March 2026) | Deepening 'risk-off mood' and 'bearish sentiment' [^] |
8. Were Dogecoin ETFs and SEC Guidance Available by End of 2025?
| Institutions Offering DOGE ETFs (by end 2025) | At least 3 (Grayscale, REX-Osprey, 21shares) [^] |
|---|---|
| First Dogecoin ETF Launch | Around September 2025 [^] |
| SEC/CFTC Crypto Classification Guidance Release | March 2026 [^] |
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: April 10, 2026
- Expiration: April 17, 2026
- Closes: April 10, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXDOGED-26APR0801-T0.2749999: NO (Apr 08, 2026)
- KXDOGED-26APR0801-T0.2699999: NO (Apr 08, 2026)
- KXDOGED-26APR0801-T0.2649999: NO (Apr 08, 2026)
- KXDOGED-26APR0801-T0.2599999: NO (Apr 08, 2026)
- KXDOGED-26APR0801-T0.2549999: NO (Apr 08, 2026)
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