Bitcoin price on Apr 13, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for the Bitcoin price to be $61,500 or above on Apr 13, 2026, driven by robust institutional adoption and bullish market indicators.
1. Executive Verdict
- New SEC rules drive robust institutional adoption for digital assets.
- US spot Bitcoin ETF AUM projected to exceed $180 billion.
- Bitcoin futures market exhibits a strong positive basis.
- Puell Multiple indicates potential for higher Bitcoin prices.
- SEC finalized modernized digital asset custody rules by April 2025.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| $71,000 or above | 45.0% | 64.8% | Robust institutional adoption, ETF growth, and bullish market indicators drive higher prices. |
| $71,250 or above | 39.0% | 58.8% | Robust institutional adoption, ETF growth, and bullish market indicators drive higher prices. |
| $69,000 or above | 94.0% | 98.2% | Robust institutional adoption, ETF growth, and bullish market indicators drive higher prices. |
| $72,000 or above | 16.0% | 30.4% | Robust institutional adoption, ETF growth, and bullish market indicators drive higher prices. |
| $70,000 or above | 84.0% | 92.4% | Robust institutional adoption, ETF growth, and bullish market indicators drive higher prices. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
Based on a technical analysis of the prediction market chart, the price action has been completely static. The probability of a "YES" outcome has remained unchanged at 99.0% since the market's inception across all recorded data points. There have been no price spikes, drops, or any significant movements whatsoever. The overall trend is perfectly sideways, reflecting a complete lack of price discovery. The absence of any provided news or external context aligns with this lack of volatility, as no events have occurred to influence trader behavior.
The most critical factor in this analysis is the trading volume, which is zero. This indicates that no contracts have been bought or sold. The 99.0% price does not represent a consensus reached through trading activity but is likely the initial price set by the market's creator or automated market maker. Because there has been no trading, it is impossible to identify any true support or resistance levels, as the current price has never been tested by buying or selling pressure.
The chart's price level suggests an initial, extremely high confidence that the price of Bitcoin will exceed the threshold of approximately $61,500 on the resolution date. However, the complete lack of volume indicates that this sentiment has not been validated or challenged by any market participants. The primary insight is not one of market conviction but rather a total absence of trading interest in this contract to date.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to Yes if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT on April 13, 2026, is above $70,999.99; otherwise, it resolves to No. The official and final value is determined by averaging 60 BRTI prices collected in the final minute before expiration, with the outcome verified from CF Benchmarks. The market closes at 5:00 PM EDT on April 13, 2026, with a projected payout shortly after.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| $67,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $66,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 98% |
| $66,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 98% |
| $66,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 98% |
| $67,250 or above | $0.99 | $0.02 | 98% |
| $67,500 or above | $0.99 | $0.02 | 98% |
| $67,750 or above | $0.99 | $0.02 | 98% |
| $68,000 or above | $0.98 | $0.03 | 97% |
| $68,250 or above | $0.98 | $0.03 | 97% |
| $68,500 or above | $0.98 | $0.04 | 97% |
| $69,250 or above | $0.96 | $0.05 | 96% |
| $68,750 or above | $0.97 | $0.04 | 95% |
| $69,000 or above | $0.98 | $0.04 | 94% |
| $69,500 or above | $0.92 | $0.09 | 94% |
| $69,750 or above | $0.89 | $0.12 | 89% |
| $70,000 or above | $0.83 | $0.18 | 84% |
| $70,250 or above | $0.75 | $0.26 | 77% |
| $70,500 or above | $0.67 | $0.35 | 69% |
| $70,750 or above | $0.57 | $0.46 | 57% |
| $71,000 or above | $0.45 | $0.57 | 45% |
| $71,250 or above | $0.34 | $0.67 | 39% |
| $71,500 or above | $0.26 | $0.75 | 28% |
| $71,750 or above | $0.18 | $0.84 | 18% |
| $72,000 or above | $0.12 | $0.89 | 16% |
| $72,250 or above | $0.11 | $0.90 | 15% |
| $72,500 or above | $0.07 | $0.95 | 7% |
| $72,750 or above | $0.05 | $0.96 | 6% |
| $73,000 or above | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| $73,750 or above | $0.03 | $1.00 | 3% |
| $74,000 or above | $0.03 | $1.00 | 3% |
| $74,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 3% |
| $76,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 3% |
| $73,250 or above | $0.03 | $0.99 | 2% |
| $73,500 or above | $0.03 | $0.99 | 2% |
| $74,250 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $74,500 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $75,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $75,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $76,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $75,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $77,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $77,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $77,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $77,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $78,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $78,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $78,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $78,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $79,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $79,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $79,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $79,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $80,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $80,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $80,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $80,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $81,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $81,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $61,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $61,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $62,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $62,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $62,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $62,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $63,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $63,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $63,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $63,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $64,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $64,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $64,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $64,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $65,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $65,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $65,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $65,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $66,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. What are the projected AUM and institutional holdings for US spot Bitcoin ETFs?
| Projected US Spot Bitcoin ETF AUM | >$180 billion (by Jan 1, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Institutional Holdings Data Source | Q4 2025 13F filings analysis reports [^] |
| Expected AUM Growth Factor | Doubling in 2026 [^] |
US spot Bitcoin ETF AUM is projected to exceed $180 billion. Analysts anticipate that the total Assets Under Management (AUM) for all US-domiciled spot Bitcoin ETFs will surpass $180 billion by January 1, 2026 [^]. This projection is supported by expectations of continued market growth, with some forecasts suggesting that AUM could double in 2026, driven by institutional investments during the next anticipated bull run [^].
Institutional investor ownership insights come from Q4 2025 13F filings. Detailed insights into the proportion of this AUM attributable to institutional investors are derived from dedicated research analyzing Q4 2025 13F filings. While the exact percentage varies across reports, a key source for understanding institutional adoption and allocation within the US spot Bitcoin ETF landscape as of the end of 2025 is the CoinShares report titled "Professional Bitcoin ownership in the first leg of the bear, Bitcoin 13F Q4 2025" [^].
5. What are M2 money supply projections and Q1 2026 interest rates?
| Market-Implied Federal Funds Rate (Q1 2026) | Not explicitly detailed in sources [^], [^], [^], [^] |
|---|---|
| M2 Money Supply Year-over-Year Growth (Q4 2020) | Approximately 25.8% (December 2020) [^], [^] |
| M2 Money Supply Year-over-Year Growth (Q1 2026) | Expected near zero or negative [^] |
The market-implied Federal Funds Rate for Q1 2026 cannot be precisely determined from the provided research. While the CME's FedWatch Tool offers market-implied probabilities for current or near-term Federal Funds Rate target ranges, the available sources do not explicitly detail specific forward projections extending to Q1 2026 [^], [^], [^], [^]. Consequently, a precise market-implied rate for that future period cannot be ascertained solely from the given information.
Q1 2026 M2 money supply growth is projected to be dramatically lower, reflecting a stark contrast to the earlier period. Projections indicate a considerably lower M2 money supply growth rate, potentially near zero or even negative [^]. This expected trend reflects the reversal of pandemic-era monetary policies, ongoing efforts to normalize economic conditions, and strategies implemented to combat inflation [^].
6. What is the anticipated trend for the Puell Multiple in 2025?
| Current Puell Multiple | Around 1.04 [^] |
|---|---|
| Expected 2025 Trend | Upwards throughout 2025 [^] |
| 2021 Cycle Peak | Around 4.0 [^] |
The Puell Multiple tracks Bitcoin miner revenue relative to its annual average. This on-chain metric is calculated by dividing Bitcoin's daily miner revenue in USD by its 365-day simple moving average of daily miner revenue [^]. Historically, values exceeding 4.0-5.0 have indicated periods of high miner profitability, often coinciding with market tops and potentially leading to increased selling pressure from miners [^]. Conversely, values below 0.5-1.0 typically signal miner stress or capitulation, frequently aligning with market bottoms [^]. As of a recent analysis, the Puell Multiple stood around 1.04, suggesting a potential investment opportunity rather than a cycle peak, thus indicating significant room for upward movement [^].
The Puell Multiple is projected to trend upwards during 2025. This anticipated increase reflects rising miner revenues as the Bitcoin market potentially advances further into its bull cycle [^]. While no source definitively predicts the 2025 peak will surpass the 2021 high, the general anticipation of "another BTC price surge" points to the potential for substantial growth in miner profitability [^]. The overarching question of whether the current cycle's peak has been reached generally implies further upward movement is expected [^].
This cycle's peak may surpass previous highs, indicating greater profitability. During the 2021 cycle, the metric peaked around 4.0 [^], whereas prior bull market peaks reached above 6.0 in 2013 [^] and above 5.0 in 2017 [^]. A higher Puell Multiple peak in this cycle could signify greater overall miner profitability, potentially reducing immediate selling pressure from miners who would be under less stress to cover operational costs [^].
7. How Will SEC Rules Modernize RIA Digital Asset Custody by 2025?
| Safeguarding Rule Finalization | April 2025 (RIN 3235-AN46) [^] |
|---|---|
| No-Action Relief for Trust Companies | September 30, 2025 [^] |
| Custody Rule Modernization Framework | December 19, 2025 [^] |
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) significantly updated digital asset custody rules for RIAs by 2025. In April 2025, the SEC finalized its "Safeguarding Advisory Client Assets" rule (RIN 3235-AN46), which expanded the existing Custody Rule (Rule 206(4)-2) to include all client assets, notably digital assets, held by Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) [^]. This rule aims to bolster investor protection by requiring RIAs to use qualified custodians for client assets. Further supporting this, the SEC introduced a "Custody Rule Modernization Model Framework" on December 19, 2025, to guide RIAs and custodians in adhering to the new regulations [^].
The SEC offered no-action relief for state-chartered trust companies as custodians. On September 30, 2025, the SEC's Division of Investment Management provided crucial no-action relief, allowing RIAs and certain registered investment companies to consider state-chartered trust companies as "banks" for the purpose of acting as qualified custodians for "crypto asset securities" under the Custody Rule [^]. The eligibility of these trust companies is tied to specific conditions, including regulation and examination by state banking authorities, adequate capital, and adherence to strict fiduciary duties for safeguarding client assets [^]. While this move was seen as positive for innovation by some, concerns were raised regarding its limited scope and potential for a fragmented regulatory environment [^].
8. What Is the Bitcoin Futures Basis for December 2026?
| Bitcoin Spot Price | $68,233.31 (March 31, 2026 [^]) |
|---|---|
| CME Dec 2026 Futures Price | $70,125.00 (March 2026 [^]) |
| Bitcoin Futures Basis | $1,891.69 (Derived from [^] and [^]) |
The December 2026 Bitcoin futures contract showed a basis of $1,891.69 as of March 2026. This basis for the CME December 2026 Bitcoin (BTCZ26) futures contract is calculated as the difference between its last price and the Bitcoin spot price. The CME December 2026 Bitcoin futures contract recorded a last price of $70,125.00 [^]. Concurrently, the Bitcoin spot price on March 31, 2026, was $68,233.31 [^]. Therefore, the basis was determined by subtracting the spot price from the futures price ($70,125.00 - $68,233.31), resulting in $1,891.69.
A comparison to the 2020-2021 cycle cannot be made based on the provided research. The available sources do not contain sufficient information regarding the basis or prevailing market conditions for Bitcoin futures during the 2020-2021 cycle. Consequently, it is not possible to assess whether the current spread is wider or narrower than it was at the equivalent point in that earlier market period.
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: April 13, 2026
- Expiration: April 20, 2026
- Closes: April 13, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTCD-26APR1309-T80799.99: NO (Apr 13, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR1309-T80699.99: NO (Apr 13, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR1309-T80599.99: NO (Apr 13, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR1309-T80499.99: NO (Apr 13, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR1309-T80399.99: NO (Apr 13, 2026)
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