Bitcoin price on Apr 10, 2026 at 12pm EDT?

The provided research did not contain the specific implied probability from the CME FedWatch Tool for the target Federal Funds Rate in the March 2026 FOMC meeting being below 4.00%. Furthermore, the directional trend of this probability since Q4 2024 was not available in the given sources.

High probability 'March' figures likely refer to recent meetings. News articles citing probabilities such as a 96% chance of a rate hold ^{[^]}, a 99.4% probability of steady rates ^{[^]}, or a 98.9% chance of a rate hold ^{[^]} are almost certainly referencing a recent or immediately upcoming FOMC meeting, such as March 2024. Market expectations for distant future dates like March 2026 are typically more volatile and would not be reported with such high certainty for a "hold" two years in advance.

Relevant tools were identified but specific data was not extracted. While tools like the Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor ^{[^]}, ^{[^]} and the CME FedWatch Tool ^{[^]} are recognized as resources for this type of data, the specific figures for March 2026 and their historical trends were not presented within the provided snippets of web research.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded substantial net inflows through March 2026. For the 12-month period concluding on March 31, 2026, these ETFs experienced an estimated cumulative net inflow of approximately $12.5 billion ^{[^]}, ^{[^]}, ^{[^]}. This period notably included a $1.3 billion net inflow during March 2026, which marked the first monthly gain recorded for the year after earlier months had experienced outflows or muted activity ^{[^]}, ^{[^]}. The top five U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs by Assets Under Management (AUM) typically comprise BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB), and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) ^{[^]}, ^{[^]}, ^{[^]}, ^{[^]}.

The prior 12-month period saw significantly higher cumulative net inflows. In comparison, the preceding 12-month period, from April 1, 2024, to March 31, 2025, recorded substantially higher estimated cumulative net inflows of $18.7 billion ^{[^]}, ^{[^]}. This earlier period encompassed the initial launch and rapid growth phase following the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. The estimated inflows for the 12-month period ending March 31, 2026, represent a notable decrease, equating to about two-thirds of the inflows observed in the preceding 12-month period.

Comprehensive digital asset legislation was not enacted by Q1 2026. Despite significant legislative efforts, the U.S. did not pass and sign into law a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, nor did it clarify the jurisdictional boundaries between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) by the specified timeframe. The CLARITY Act, a primary legislative proposal aimed at establishing such a framework, encountered substantial obstacles, with over 100 amendments preventing a crucial market structure vote in the Senate by Q1 2026 ^{[^]}. Although the GENIUS Act was signed into law, it did not address the broader crypto regulatory structure that the CLARITY Act aimed to establish, leaving the latter still in its advancement stage ^{[^]}.

Other legislative initiatives advanced but did not achieve comprehensive enactment. For instance, the Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act cleared the Senate Agricultural Committee in February 2026, but this did not constitute comprehensive passage into law ^{[^]}. While the U.S. Senate confirmed an April 2026 markup for the CLARITY Act, indicating continued legislative focus ^{[^]}, this activity occurred outside the Q1 2026 timeframe for enactment. Separately, the SEC and CFTC did take steps to provide clarity through agency actions, issuing statements in March 2026 that clarified the application of existing federal securities laws to crypto assets and specifying when certain digital assets would be considered securities ^{[^]}. However, these were agency-level clarifications rather than a new comprehensive legislative framework passed by Congress and signed by the President.

Bitcoin miners shifted towards an accumulation phase leading into 2026. This period was characterized by a notable reduction in their selling activity, indicating a decreased inclination among miners to liquidate their mined Bitcoin holdings ^{[^]}. This trend suggests a move towards net accumulation or at least a significant decrease in the rate of distribution by miners ^{[^]}.

The precise 90-day moving average for Q1 2026 is not explicitly available. While on-chain data providers such as Glassnode offer detailed metrics like the Bitcoin Miner Net Position Change, which monitors the movement of BTC into or out of miner wallets, the specific numerical value for the 90-day moving average leading into Q1 2026 was not detailed in the provided research ^{[^]}. However, the qualitative analysis confirms that miners were less active in selling their Bitcoin assets during this timeframe ^{[^]}.

For Bitcoin options contracts expiring in March 2026, a notable price level emerged. A significant price level around $75,000 was identified as a "price magnet" for a substantial options expiry ^{[^]}. This particular expiry involved a considerable notional value, estimated to be approximately $14 billion ^{[^]} or $13.5 billion ^{[^]}. The term "price magnet" indicates a significant point of market interest where the price tends to gravitate during the expiry, often correlating with the maximum pain point for option holders or substantial aggregate open interest.

Specific highest open interest strikes for options were not detailed. Despite the identification of $75,000 as a key level for the March 2026 expiry, the research did not explicitly detail the specific strike prices with the highest open interest for individual call options and put options for Bitcoin on Deribit for this period. In options markets, the strike price with the highest open interest for calls is typically regarded as a resistance level, while the highest open interest for puts often indicates a support level. The absence of this specific breakdown means a definitive market consensus on precise support and resistance, based on individual highest open interest call and put strikes for March 2026, cannot be fully ascertained from the provided information.

Catalyst analysis unavailable.