When will Bitcoin hit $150k?

US Spot Bitcoin ETFs show significant investor interest and asset growth. The top five largest US Spot Bitcoin ETFs by Assets Under Management include Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) with approximately $19.60 billion, iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) at around $18.23 billion, Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust (FBTC) with roughly $10.51 billion, ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) holding about $3.04 billion, and Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) with approximately $2.40 billion ^{[^]}. These funds collectively manage tens of billions of dollars. Recently, these ETFs experienced a substantial net inflow of $471 million ^{[^]}, with other reports specifying $471.4 million, marking the largest single-day inflow since February ^{[^]} and signaling renewed investor confidence after a period of prior stagnation or outflows ^{[^]}.

No public reports confirm new sovereign or pension Bitcoin allocations. Despite the recent positive momentum in US Spot Bitcoin ETFs, current research does not indicate any public filings or credible reports detailing new Bitcoin allocation strategies specifically from sovereign wealth funds or major pension funds for the first half of 2025. While some pension funds have reported positive returns from existing Bitcoin allocations, such as one fund recording a 56% gain ^{[^]}, these instances reflect past or current performance rather than forward-looking strategic announcements from new large institutional players. Available SEC filings also do not contain such specific, forward-looking plans from these types of funds ^{[^]}.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders have shifted to renewed accumulation after selling. On-chain analytics platforms like Glassnode and CryptoQuant indicate that the 'Long-Term Holder Net Position Change' metric for Bitcoin has recently turned positive. This change signals a resumption of accumulation by this cohort, following a period where they distributed their holdings into market strength ^{[^]}.

LTH accumulation suggests strong belief and potential future supply squeeze. This shift confirms that the previous trend of Long-Term Holders selling off their Bitcoin has concluded. TradingView News further corroborates this, reporting that the 'Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Dump Is Over' as relevant on-chain data has just flipped ^{[^]}. Such consistent accumulation from Long-Term Holders often implies a strong conviction in future price appreciation for Bitcoin and could lead to a reduction in the available circulating supply, potentially resulting in a supply squeeze if this trend continues ^{[^]}.

Specific open interest and volume data is not explicitly available. Detailed figures for open interest concentration and volume for Bitcoin call options with strike prices between $120,000 and $200,000 for December 2025 and March 2026 expiries on CME and Deribit are not provided in the available web research ^{[^]}. While various reports discuss overall market activity, such as CME Group's insights into Bitcoin options volatility ^{[^]}, and Deribit's analytics reports ^{[^]}, specific granular data for these high-strike, distant-expiry calls is not detailed. General market discussions have noted significant Bitcoin options expiries, with reports mentioning a substantial $14 billion to $15 billion in options set to expire, particularly for March 2026, often citing $75,000 as a price magnet rather than higher strike prices ^{[^]}.

Data limitations prevent concluding on persistent call-favoring 25-delta skew. The Bitcoin Call-Put 25 Delta Skew for Deribit is a metric tracked by Glassnode, designed to indicate the relative pricing of out-of-the-money calls versus puts ^{[^]}. A persistent favoring of calls, characterized by calls being relatively more expensive than puts, would generally signal a bullish conviction from traders, as they are paying a premium for upside protection or speculation. However, the provided sources indicate that this metric is tracked but do not include the specific real-time or historical data necessary to determine if the 25-delta skew is currently or persistently favoring calls for these expiries, thereby preventing a definitive conclusion on institutional bullish conviction based solely on this metric ^{[^]}.

Federal Funds futures indicate significant US interest rate reductions by mid-2025. Market participants anticipate an implied effective federal funds rate in the range of approximately 4.50% to 4.75% for mid-2025, specifically for contracts covering months such as June, July, and August 2025 ^{[^]}. This projection is derived from futures prices; for example, a 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract priced at 95.25 implies an average effective federal funds rate of 4.75% for that month (100 minus 95.25) ^{[^]}. Given the federal funds rate's current target range of 5.25%-5.50% (as of late 2023/early 2024), this expectation points to approximately 75-100 basis points (0.75%-1.00%) in rate cuts by mid-2025 ^{[^]}.

Market pricing suggests substantial policy easing; Bitcoin correlation is unaddressed. The anticipated easing of 75 or more basis points signifies a considerable loosening of monetary policy, with market expectations pointing to multiple rate reductions over the forecast horizon leading up to mid-2025 ^{[^]}. Such a projected shift aligns with historical instances where monetary policy adjustments were made to stimulate economic activity. However, the provided web research results primarily focus on interest rate projections and monetary policy expectations ^{[^]} and do not contain specific data or analyses regarding the historical correlation between such monetary policy loosening and "major liquidity-driven rallies in risk assets like Bitcoin." Therefore, based solely on the available sources, it is not possible to directly confirm this historical relationship between the projected rate cuts and Bitcoin's performance.

Major Bitcoin miners show mixed financial results post-halving. In the immediate post-halving period, companies like CleanSpark (CLSK) and Marathon Digital (MARA) have reported a mixed financial picture. CleanSpark delivered $181 million in Q1 Fiscal Year 2025 revenue, marking an increase year-over-year, and has also focused on strengthening its balance sheet ^{[^]}, ^{[^]}, ^{[^]}. Despite these higher revenues, CleanSpark reported a wider-than-expected loss for Q1 2025, and Marathon Digital similarly posted higher Q1 2025 revenues but also recorded a loss ^{[^]}, ^{[^]}.

Rising operational costs are increasing BTC sales by miners. General market trends indicate that Bitcoin miners are increasing their sales of BTC holdings due to rising operational costs and financial pressure following the halving event ^{[^]}. This trend is consistent with the reported losses despite revenue increases for some major players, suggesting that miners are navigating reduced block rewards and higher breakeven prices, which contributes to potential selling pressure on the market ^{[^]}, ^{[^]}.

Management is strategically diversifying into AI infrastructure for profitability. Looking ahead, management guidance points to a focus on diversification and efficiency. CleanSpark is actively advancing a multi-gigawatt AI infrastructure platform, and Marathon Holdings is exploring AI infrastructure optionality, leveraging its energy integration ^{[^]}, ^{[^]}. These strategic moves indicate an adaptation to the post-halving landscape, with companies seeking additional revenue streams and optimizing operations beyond solely Bitcoin mining to maintain profitability ^{[^]}.

Catalyst analysis unavailable.