When will Bitcoin hit $150k?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Bitcoin to hit $150k before June 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- GENIUS Act for stablecoins provides regulatory clarity.
- Fed withdraws restrictive guidance for bank crypto services.
- Bipartisan U.S. crypto market structure legislation is anticipated.
- Tokenization of traditional assets increases Bitcoin demand.
- Sustained strong inflows into U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETPs.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before June 2026 | 5.0% | 4.5% | Bitcoin's steady growth and cyclical market trends could lead to $150k by late 2026. |
| Before March 2026 | 1.0% | 0.5% | Reaching $150k this early would require an extraordinary market surge or unexpected catalyst. |
| Before April 2026 | 2.0% | 1.5% | An accelerated market recovery or significant institutional adoption could drive Bitcoin to $150k by early 2026. |
| Before May 2026 | 3.0% | 3.5% | Strong macroeconomic tailwinds and continued ETF inflows might push Bitcoin to $150k by mid-2026. |
Current Context
Bitcoin shows recent volatility amid institutional outflows and shifting sentiment. As of February 24-25, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading with volatility between approximately $63,065 and $65,582, experiencing dips of 3.04% to 4.69% over 24 hours in some reports, followed by rebounds [^], [^]. The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at roughly $2.26 trillion [^]. A notable development has been net outflows from US-listed spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), with over $200 million recorded on February 24, marking a fifth consecutive week of outflows since late January [^]. Over the past seven days, these ETFs saw a net outflow of 7,194 BTC, valued at $479 million [^]. However, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor announced his firm purchased an additional 592 BTC on February 24, increasing their total holdings to 717,722 BTC, signaling continued long-term conviction [^]. Despite initial price dips after the U.S. Treasury announced sanctions against crypto-funded tools, both Bitcoin and Ethereum quickly rebounded [^]. Sentiment data from Santiment indicates that "calls for Bitcoin to hit $150k to $200k, and even $50k to $100k, are drying up," which is considered a healthy market indicator as retail optimism fades and sentiment returns to a neutral state from "extreme bearishness" [^]. Conversely, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has registered "extreme fear" with a score of 8 since February 9 [^].
Experts offer diverse Bitcoin price targets amidst key economic indicators. Investors are closely monitoring Bitcoin's price action, particularly its ability to hold above key support levels like the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), although BTC recently closed below the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting potential further downside [^], [^]. Institutional inflows and outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, on-chain data indicating a steady decline in utility metrics, and macroeconomic factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical tensions are also critical data points [^]. While the next Bitcoin halving is projected for March or April 2028, its historical impact on supply scarcity remains a foundational element for long-term predictions [^], [^], [^], [^], [^]. Several firms and analysts have issued predictions for Bitcoin reaching $150,000: Bernstein analysts, including Gautam Chhugani, reiterated a $150,000 target by the end of 2026, citing accelerating institutional adoption [^], [^], [^], [^], [^]. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest has maintained her $150,000 forecast [^], while Michael Saylor predicts $100,000+ by year-end 2026, having previously forecast $150,000 by the end of 2025 [^]. In contrast, Standard Chartered recently lowered its forecast from $150,000 to $100,000 due to an "ETF Winter" and macroeconomic uncertainty [^]. Fundstrat projects a range of $120,000-$180,000 by 2028, with some analysts within the firm predicting $200,000-$250,000 by the end of 2026 [^]. Other predictions include Nexo forecasting $150,000 to $200,000 [^], Cryptopolitan expecting $150,000 by the end of 2026 [^], and Epoch Ventures predicting at least $150,000 by year-end 2026, suggesting the traditional 4-year halving cycle is now a relic [^]. On-chain analyst Murphy also forecasts Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by 2026 after finding its cycle bottom [^]. Upcoming events include the next Bitcoin Halving in 2028 [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], various crypto and blockchain conferences from February to May 2026 [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 [^].
Concerns persist regarding Bitcoin's volatility, scalability, and market role. Despite bullish long-term predictions, issues such as Bitcoin's current volatile nature and recent declines raise concerns, with some technical analysis suggesting further downside towards $45,000-$50,000 [^], [^]. The sustainability of institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs is a significant concern, leading some to characterize the current period as an "ETF Winter" [^]. As Bitcoin's valuation increases, scalability issues, particularly potential skyrocketing base layer transaction fees and the resulting need for Layer 2 solutions, become more prominent [^]. There is an ongoing debate about Bitcoin's identity within the financial landscape, questioning its role as a hedge, payment rail, or speculative asset, with arguments suggesting gold is currently outperforming as a hedge and stablecoins in payments [^]. Macroeconomic headwinds, including geopolitical tensions, new US international trade tariffs, and the impact of AI on traditional markets, contribute to a risk-off sentiment affecting Bitcoin [^]. The fading retail optimism and the drying up of "FOMO" (Fear Of Missing Out) calls for higher prices, while seen as a healthy market correction by some, also reflect a period of caution among individual investors [^]. Long-term discussions also include the "quantum threat" as a potential concern for Bitcoin.
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market exhibits a clear and sustained long-term downtrend. Opening with an initial optimism of 13%, the perceived probability of Bitcoin reaching $150k in 2025 has consistently eroded, falling to its current price of 6%. The market's all-time high was 14%, established early in its lifecycle, which acted as a firm resistance level that was never re-tested. The price found a historical floor around 3%, a level of support that has held during periods of maximum pessimism. The overall price action is one of steady decay, indicating that sellers have been in control for the majority of the market's existence.
The market's downward price action throughout its history reflects the growing consensus that the $150k price target was becoming increasingly unlikely as the 2025 deadline approached. The provided context, dated February 2026, does not explain a specific price drop but rather confirms the fundamental reality that drove the negative trend. With the resolution year of 2025 having passed and Bitcoin's price reported to be around $65,000, the "YES" condition of the market was not met. Negative factors like the noted institutional ETF outflows in early 2026 are indicative of the bearish sentiment that likely contributed to the price suppression during the active trading period in 2025.
Market sentiment, as dictated by the chart, has been definitively bearish. The substantial total trading volume of over 1.6 million contracts suggests significant initial interest and participation. However, the declining volume in more recent sample data points indicates that trading activity dwindled as the outcome became more certain. The market's journey from a 13% probability to just 6% demonstrates a complete failure of bullish conviction and a successful pricing-in of the eventual "NO" resolution. The current price, while not at zero, signifies that the market has overwhelmingly concluded that the event did not occur within the specified timeframe.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided market title "When will Bitcoin hit $150k? Odds & Predictions 2025":
1. A YES resolution is triggered if Bitcoin reaches $150,000. 2. A NO resolution is triggered if Bitcoin does not reach $150,000 by the implied deadline. 3. The year 2025 is the key timeframe or deadline for this event. 4. No special settlement conditions are detailed in the provided content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before June 2026 | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| Before May 2026 | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Before April 2026 | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Before March 2026 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Debates around Bitcoin reaching $150,000 are characterized by both strong bullish sentiment driven by institutional adoption, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and historical halving cycles, and a cautious outlook due to slowing ETF inflows, regulatory uncertainty, and waning retail investor enthusiasm [^]. Many experts and financial institutions, including Standard Chartered and Bernstein, project Bitcoin to hit $150,000 by late 2026, citing sustained institutional buying and Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative [^]. However, prediction markets show lower probabilities for this target in the short term, and some analysts note a "cooling off" of retail optimism and declining network activity, coupled with a recent slowdown in ETF inflows and regulatory delays, as potential headwinds [^].
4. Was Researching the Question Unsuccessful Due to an Error?
| Research Outcome | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Internal Server Error |
| Data Extraction | Not possible |
Research execution failed due to an unexpected internal server error. An attempt to gather information for the requested analysis encountered an unforeseen 'Internal Server Error.' This critical server-side issue prevented the successful completion of the research process, making it impossible to extract or process any specific findings, data points, or detailed content.
Consequently, no research findings or data are currently available. Due to this complete lack of successful research execution, the requested key findings and supporting data cannot be provided at this time. The system was unable to retrieve any relevant information for analysis, precluding the generation of the requested subtitle, table data, or summary paragraphs based on actual findings.
5. What Information Was Retrieved from the Research Query?
| Research Status | Failed |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Sources Found | 0 |
The research query encountered an internal server error. This technical issue prevented the successful retrieval of any specific findings or relevant data during the execution of the query.
No data could be extracted for the research question. Consequently, no information could be extracted regarding the initial research question, meaning key metrics and a detailed analysis cannot be provided at this time.
6. Why Was Research Data Unavailable for This Query?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Reason | System Error Encountered |
A server error prevented research on Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score. The research process for the query, which aimed to determine if the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score had dipped below the 2.0 level and was showing a bullish divergence with price, encountered an internal server error. This technical issue specifically prevented the system from successfully retrieving or processing any relevant information.
No specific findings or analyses were generated. Consequently, due to this technical issue, no specific findings, data points, or detailed analyses related to the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score or its price correlation could be extracted or produced. The research query, therefore, could not be completed at this time.
7. What Research Findings Are Currently Available for This Inquiry?
| Research Outcome | Failed to retrieve data |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Internal Server Error |
| Data Availability | None |
The research process encountered a critical technical impediment during execution. The investigation into the probability implied by Federal Funds futures for at least two 25 basis point rate cuts before September 2025 was halted by an unexpected 'Internal Server Error'. This technical issue directly prevented the successful retrieval of any relevant data or information necessary to address the initial query.
The technical failure precluded all data retrieval and analysis. Due to the server-side problem, all potential data sources remained inaccessible, making it impossible to extract or format any specific key findings, data points, or detailed insights at this time. This complete lack of access meant no research outcomes could be summarized.
A definitive answer remains unobtainable pending issue resolution. Consequently, a comprehensive answer to the initial question concerning the implied probability of rate cuts cannot be provided. Further analysis and the ability to formulate a response are entirely dependent on the resolution of this internal server error and subsequent successful access to the necessary research data.
8. Why Was Research Data Not Retrieved?
| Research Status | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Internal Server Error |
| Data Available | None |
The research investigation encountered an internal server error. This technical issue prevented the system from successfully retrieving the requested information regarding the current percentage of Bitcoin supply that has been dormant for one year or more, also known as Long-Term Holder Supply. The server-side problem during the data fetching process meant that no specific research findings or data points could be extracted.
Due to this critical error, no answer or summary is currently available. As a direct consequence of the internal server error, no relevant content for subtitles, tables, or detailed paragraphs could be generated to address the intended research question. Further attempts may be necessary to successfully gather the required information.
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key bullish catalysts that could propel Bitcoin towards $150k before May 31, 2026, include significant regulatory clarity and institutional adoption. This encompasses the implementation of clear frameworks like the GENIUS Act for stablecoins, the U.S. Federal Reserve's withdrawal of restrictive guidance allowing banks to offer crypto custody and payment services, and anticipated bipartisan crypto market structure legislation in the U.S., all of which could deepen Bitcoin's integration with traditional finance [^]. Increased tokenization of traditional assets and sustained strong inflows into U.S. Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) are also expected to drive demand [^]. Favorable macroeconomic conditions, such as projected interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and potential geopolitical de-escalation by Q1 2026, could further boost risk-on sentiment [^]. Additionally, the mining of the 20 millionth Bitcoin in March 2026 is expected to highlight its scarcity [^].
Conversely, several bearish catalysts could push the market probability against Bitcoin reaching $150k. Persistent sticky inflation could slow the pace of expected interest rate cuts, negatively impacting risk assets [^]. Policy uncertainty might arise from the expiration of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's term in May 2026 [^]. Regulatory setbacks, including significant global divergence or stringent new regulations like the full implementation of EU's MiCA, could cause market disruption [^]. Market dynamics also present headwinds, such as systematic retreats by hedge funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs leading to substantial outflows, weakening demand indicated by declining 'dolphin' holdings, and a sustained drop below key technical levels [^]. Major security breaches, hacks, or ongoing debates about whether Bitcoin's scarcity is undermined by derivatives could further impact investor confidence [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 01, 2026
- Closes: May 31, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Key bullish catalysts that could propel Bitcoin towards $150k before May 31, 2026, include significant regulatory clarity and institutional adoption.
- Trigger: This encompasses the implementation of clear frameworks like the GENIUS Act for stablecoins, the U.S.
- Trigger: Federal Reserve's withdrawal of restrictive guidance allowing banks to offer crypto custody and payment services, and anticipated bipartisan crypto market structure legislation in the U.S., all of which could deepen Bitcoin's integration with traditional finance [^] .
- Trigger: Increased tokenization of traditional assets and sustained strong inflows into U.S.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 10 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTCMAX150-25-26JAN31-149999.99: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
- KXBTCMAX150-25-OCT31-149999.99: NO (Nov 01, 2025)
- KXBTCMAX150-25-NOV30-149999.99: NO (Dec 01, 2025)
- KXBTCMAX150-25-AUG31-149999.99: NO (Sep 01, 2025)
- KXBTCMAX150-25-JUN15-149999.99: NO (Aug 01, 2025)
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