Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Internal server error prevents access to WBD takeover research.
- WBD Board's evaluation of Paramount Skydance's all-cash offer is crucial.
- Paramount Skydance's all-cash offer competes with Netflix's proposal.
- Market probabilities experienced several significant drops in February 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paramount | 59.0% | 64.2% | Model higher by 5.2pp |
| Netflix | 33.0% | 28.4% | Market higher by 4.6pp |
| None before July 2027 | 10.0% | 7.5% | Market higher by 2.5pp |
Current Context
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Netflix
📉 February 23, 2026: 15.0pp drop
Price decreased from 50.0% to 35.0%
📉 February 18, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 38.0% to 29.0%
📈 February 09, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 47.0% to 56.0%
Outcome: Paramount
📉 February 20, 2026: 12.0pp drop
Price decreased from 54.0% to 42.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided page content, "Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers? Odds & Predictions 2027", there is insufficient information to determine the exact triggers for YES or NO resolution, key dates/deadlines, or any special settlement conditions. The provided text only states the subject of the prediction market.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paramount | $0.59 | $0.43 | 59% |
| Netflix | $0.33 | $0.68 | 33% |
| None before July 2027 | $0.10 | $0.91 | 10% |
Market Discussion
The debate surrounding the successful takeover of Warner Bros [^]. Discovery (WBD) primarily revolves around two main contenders: Netflix and Paramount Skydance, with discussions focusing on which suitor offers the best value and faces fewer regulatory hurdles [^]. Netflix initially secured an agreement to acquire WBD's streaming and studios division, aiming to consolidate its market leadership, but this raised concerns about potential monopolies [^]. Paramount Skydance has countered with a higher all-cash bid for the entire company, including its cable networks, prompting WBD's board to reconsider and giving Netflix a window to improve its offer amid ongoing regulatory scrutiny for both proposals [^].
5. Why is Research Data Currently Unavailable?
| Research Status | Error Encountered (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Points | Not Available |
| Citations | None Available |
6. Why Was There an Error Accessing Research Information?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | No data extracted due to error |
| Error Type | Internal Server Error |
7. Research Failed: Internal Server Error Encountered?
| Research Status | Failed [N/A] |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Internal Server Error [N/A] |
| Findings Availability | None [N/A] |
8. What Led to the Research Query Failing to Process?
| Research Outcome | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Retrieved | None |
| Issue Type | System Error |
9. What Caused the Research Query to Fail?
| Research Outcome | Internal Server Error |
|---|---|
| Data Retrieved | None |
| Status | Failed |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts for Warner Bros. Takeover
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: July 07, 2027
- Closes: July 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The probability of a successful Warner Bros [^] .
- Trigger: Takeover by July 1, 2027, is significantly influenced by several potential bullish catalysts [^] .
- Trigger: A major factor is whether the Warner Bros [^] .
- Trigger: Discovery (WBD) Board deems Paramount Skydance's revised, all-cash offer superior to Netflix's current agreement, potentially triggering Netflix's four-day matching right and a subsequent improved bid [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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