Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Paramount to successfully take over Warner Brothers before July 2027, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Executive Verdict

  • Internal server error prevents access to WBD takeover research.
  • WBD Board's evaluation of Paramount Skydance's all-cash offer is crucial.
  • Paramount Skydance's all-cash offer competes with Netflix's proposal.
  • Market probabilities experienced several significant drops in February 2026.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Paramount 59.0% 64.2% Model higher by 5.2pp
Netflix 33.0% 28.4% Market higher by 4.6pp
None before July 2027 10.0% 7.5% Market higher by 2.5pp

Current Context

Warner Bros. Discovery faces a dynamic bidding war for its assets, with Paramount Skydance submitting a revised acquisition proposal. On February 24, 2026, WBD confirmed it received Paramount Skydance's increased offer of $31 per share for the entire company, valuing it at an estimated $108 billion including debt, up from a previous $30 bid [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^]. This proposal also includes Paramount covering Netflix's $2.8 billion termination fee and a $7 billion regulatory termination fee [^]. While WBD's board continues to recommend its existing merger agreement with Netflix, it acknowledged that Paramount's revised offer "could reasonably be expected to lead to a 'Company Superior Proposal'," signaling a potential shift [^], [^]. Netflix's current offer stands at $27.75 per share, representing a $72 billion equity value and $82.7 billion enterprise value specifically for WBD's streaming and studio assets [^]. Netflix previously granted WBD a seven-day waiver, which expired on February 23, 2026, to engage with Paramount; should WBD's board deem Paramount's offer superior, Netflix will have a four-day window to present a counter-offer [^], [^], [^].
Financial metrics and expert analysis influence market sentiment on the acquisition. WBD carries substantial debt, approximately $34.2 billion net as of December 2024 and $45.3 billion gross in Q3 2023, which is a critical factor for potential buyers [^]. The company reported 128 million global streaming subscribers in Q3 2025, aiming for 150 million by the end of 2026, with its direct-to-consumer unit becoming profitable in Q4 2024 at $409 million [^], [^], [^]. Analysts offer varied outlooks, with Bernstein suggesting Netflix's $27.75 offer as a floor price [^], while others like Raymond James note Paramount's increasing momentum [^]. Regulatory scrutiny remains a primary concern for both bids, particularly for Netflix due to potential market concentration in streaming, an area where Paramount argues it would face fewer obstacles [^], [^], [^]. Experts are divided on the ultimate winner, with some predicting Netflix will match higher offers and others favoring Paramount's all-cash bid and potentially smoother regulatory path [^], [^]. Should neither deal proceed, analysts estimate WBD's underlying value around $24, potentially leading to a significant stock price decline [^]. Key upcoming events include WBD's Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Call on February 26, 2026, and a special shareholder meeting on March 20, 2026, to vote on the Netflix merger agreement [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^].

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market for a Paramount Skydance (PSKY) takeover of Warner Brothers has exhibited a strong upward trend, more than doubling from a starting probability of 28.0% to a current price of 64.0%. The price action has been event-driven, with significant volatility in late February 2026. A notable 12.0 percentage point drop occurred on February 20, from 54.0% to 42.0%, as traders reassessed PSKY's bid strength relative to a competing interest from Netflix. However, this dip was quickly and decisively reversed. On February 23, the market spiked 14.0 percentage points from 41.0% to 55.0% in direct response to news that PSKY had submitted an increased acquisition offer of $31 per share, which was officially confirmed by WBD the following day. This strong positive reaction erased the previous losses and set a new high.
The market's current price of 64.0% represents the contract's all-time high, establishing this level as the immediate resistance. The previous peak around the 54.0%-55.0% range, which was tested before the drop and reclaimed during the subsequent spike, now serves as a key potential support level. The total traded volume of over 368,000 contracts indicates a liquid market with significant participant interest. The sharp price movements, particularly the recovery spike, were likely accompanied by high volume, suggesting strong conviction from traders reacting to the improved offer. Overall, the chart indicates a decisively bullish market sentiment, with participants pricing in a high and increasing probability that Paramount Skydance will be the successful acquirer of Warner Brothers before the mid-2027 resolution date.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Netflix

📉 February 23, 2026: 15.0pp drop

Price decreased from 50.0% to 35.0%

What happened: The 15.0 percentage point drop in the "Netflix" outcome for the "Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?" prediction market on February 23, 2026, was primarily driven by news of a significantly improved acquisition offer from Paramount Skydance for Warner Bros [^]. Discovery (WBD) [^]. On February 23rd, reports emerged that Paramount Skydance had submitted a higher, revised offer to acquire WBD, directly challenging Netflix's previously agreed-upon deal [^]. This development immediately followed WBD granting Paramount a seven-day deadline, which expired on February 23rd, to present its "best and final" proposal [^]. While social media activity, such as Donald Trump's posts over the preceding weekend demanding Netflix fire a board member amid antitrust scrutiny, contributed to overall uncertainty surrounding the Netflix deal, the direct, concrete news of a strengthened competing bid from Paramount Skydance was the primary catalyst for the prediction market's price movement [^]. Social media was (c) mostly noise / (b) contributing accelerant (I have to pick one, mostly noise for the immediate price movement, but it did contribute to the broader negative sentiment around the Netflix deal) [^]. I will go with "contributing accelerant" as the regulatory concerns raised by Trump were directly related to the merger [^]. The primary driver of this price movement was traditional news and announcements [^]. Social media was a contributing accelerant [^].

📉 February 18, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 38.0% to 29.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point drop for the "Netflix" outcome in the "Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?" prediction market on February 18, 2026, was the news that Warner Bros [^]. Discovery (WBD) reopened takeover talks with Paramount Skydance [^]. On February 17, 2026, WBD announced it would engage in a seven-day discussion period with Paramount Skydance, following a waiver granted by Netflix, to consider a potentially higher offer from Paramount [^]. This development indicated that Netflix's previously agreed-upon acquisition, valued at $27.75 per WBD share, was facing a renewed competitive bid, with Paramount verbally agreeing to raise its offer to at least $31 per share for the entire company [^]. This traditional news event immediately preceded and directly caused the market movement, as it introduced significant uncertainty regarding the Netflix takeover [^]. Traditional news was the primary driver [^].

📈 February 09, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 47.0% to 56.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point spike in the "Netflix" outcome for the "Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?" prediction market on February 9, 2026, was likely the filing of Warner Bros [^]. Discovery's (WBD) preliminary proxy statement with the SEC for the Netflix merger [^]. This official step, detailing the terms of the Netflix acquisition, represented a formal progression of the deal, potentially signaling increased confidence in its completion despite an ongoing bidding war with Paramount Skydance [^]. There is no evidence of significant social media activity from key figures or viral narratives directly preceding or coinciding with this specific price movement on February 9, 2026 [^]. Based on the available information, social media activity was (d) irrelevant to this particular price spike [^].

Outcome: Paramount

📉 February 20, 2026: 12.0pp drop

Price decreased from 54.0% to 42.0%

What happened: On February 20, 2026, the 12.0 percentage point drop for "Paramount" in the "Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?" prediction market was primarily driven by a market reassessment of Paramount's competitive position against Netflix [^]. Kalshi, a prediction market platform, reported on that day that traders were "reassessing whether the company can realistically compete with Netflix on both price and execution" [^]. This sentiment was reinforced by a Reuters report suggesting that "Netflix has ample cash and could increase its offer if Paramount raises its bid," signaling Netflix's strong ability to control the bidding process [^]. Social media activity, such as a later post by former President Trump on the weekend of February 22-23, 2026, concerning Netflix board member Susan Rice, appeared to lag the observed price movement and therefore was not the primary driver of this specific drop [^]. Therefore, social media was mostly irrelevant to this particular price movement [^].

4. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

Based on the provided page content, "Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers? Odds & Predictions 2027", there is insufficient information to determine the exact triggers for YES or NO resolution, key dates/deadlines, or any special settlement conditions. The provided text only states the subject of the prediction market.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Implied probability
Paramount $0.59 $0.43 59%
Netflix $0.33 $0.68 33%
None before July 2027 $0.10 $0.91 10%

Market Discussion

The debate surrounding the successful takeover of Warner Bros [^]. Discovery (WBD) primarily revolves around two main contenders: Netflix and Paramount Skydance, with discussions focusing on which suitor offers the best value and faces fewer regulatory hurdles [^]. Netflix initially secured an agreement to acquire WBD's streaming and studios division, aiming to consolidate its market leadership, but this raised concerns about potential monopolies [^]. Paramount Skydance has countered with a higher all-cash bid for the entire company, including its cable networks, prompting WBD's board to reconsider and giving Netflix a window to improve its offer amid ongoing regulatory scrutiny for both proposals [^].

5. Why is Research Data Currently Unavailable?

Research StatusError Encountered (Internal Server Error)
Data PointsNot Available
CitationsNone Available
Specific findings regarding WBD's Paramount Skydance offer are unavailable. During the research process, an internal server error occurred, preventing the successful retrieval of specific findings for the inquiry. This unexpected system issue hindered the completion of data collection for the conditions under which the Paramount Skydance offer would be declared a 'Company Superior Proposal.'
Detailed metrics and supporting data could not be retrieved. Consequently, comprehensive information, key financial metrics, and any supporting citations pertinent to this inquiry are currently inaccessible. It is recommended to reattempt the research query at a subsequent time.

6. Why Was There an Error Accessing Research Information?

Research StatusFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data AvailabilityNo data extracted due to error
Error TypeInternal Server Error
The research process encountered a critical error, preventing data retrieval and analysis. An 'Internal Server Error' occurred during the research, which critically hindered the successful retrieval and processing of information for the requested query. This system malfunction entirely prevented the generation of specific findings, data points, or detailed analysis regarding comparative regulatory risk assessments from the DOJ and FTC.
No specific content or metrics could be produced due to this issue. Consequently, it was impossible to provide any factual content, key metrics, or relevant paragraphs based on research findings. The inability to access or effectively process the data source directly resulted in the complete absence of information for analyzing market concentration, specifically using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, in either the direct-to-consumer streaming market for a Netflix merger or the film/TV studio production market for a Paramount merger.

7. Research Failed: Internal Server Error Encountered?

Research StatusFailed [N/A]
Error TypeInternal Server Error [N/A]
Findings AvailabilityNone [N/A]
Information regarding Paramount Skydance financing commitments is currently unavailable. During the research process, an unexpected internal server error was encountered, which prevented the successful retrieval and processing of any information pertaining to the specific financial institutions providing the debt and equity financing commitment letters for Paramount Skydance's $108B enterprise value offer.
Technical issues prevented extraction of detailed financing terms and conditions. This technical issue directly precluded the collection of data on key covenants and conditions attached to the financing, particularly concerning the absorption of Warner Bros. Discovery's (WBD) existing ~$34B in net debt. Consequently, no specific findings, data points, or summarized insights could be extracted or generated, meaning the requested information cannot be provided at this time.

8. What Led to the Research Query Failing to Process?

Research OutcomeFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data RetrievedNone
Issue TypeSystem Error
A server error prevented research on WBD's financial outlook. The research process, which aimed to assess the probability of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) pursuing an independent deleveraging strategy, encountered an "Internal Server Error." This analysis sought to determine the likelihood that financing or regulatory challenges would prevent anticipated deals from closing, given WBD's Altman Z-Score of 1.03 and its debt maturity schedule through 2027. Such a scenario could potentially necessitate the sale of major assets like CNN or the entire Turner Broadcasting System. The "Internal Server Error" indicates a server-side problem that hindered the successful execution of the query and the retrieval of any pertinent information.
No data was extracted, preventing an answer. Due to this server-side issue, no specific data points, summaries, or key findings could be extracted from the intended research. Consequently, it is not possible to provide an answer or detailed information regarding the original research topic at this time, as the underlying data could not be accessed or processed.

9. What Caused the Research Query to Fail?

Research OutcomeInternal Server Error
Data RetrievedNone
StatusFailed
Research on the Paramount offer timeline encountered a critical server error. During the execution of the research query, which sought to establish the exact procedural timeline of critical deadlines including the final day for the WBD board to evaluate Paramount's offer, the subsequent 4-day window for Netflix to submit a counter-offer, and the anticipated dates for filing preliminary proxy statements (PREM14A) for a shareholder vote under each scenario, an internal server error was encountered.
The server error prevented access to all relevant timeline information. This error prevented the system from accessing or processing any information related to the question posed, resulting in a complete lack of findings. As a direct consequence of this server-side issue, no specific data points, statistics, or analytical summaries could be generated, and the system was unable to provide any substantive content based on the research request.

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts for Warner Bros. Takeover

The probability of a successful Warner Bros [^] . takeover by July 1, 2027, is significantly influenced by several potential bullish catalysts [^]. A major factor is whether the Warner Bros [^]. Discovery (WBD) Board deems Paramount Skydance's revised, all-cash offer superior to Netflix's current agreement, potentially triggering Netflix's four-day matching right and a subsequent improved bid [^]. Shareholder approval of any definitive merger agreement, alongside swift and unconditional regulatory clearances from U.S [^]. and European authorities, are crucial steps [^]. Additionally, strong financial performance from WBD in late 2025 and 2026 could further enhance its attractiveness to bidders [^]. Conversely, several bearish catalysts could derail a takeover [^]. These include regulatory blockages or the imposition of onerous conditions, particularly concerning Netflix's bid which has raised content monopolization concerns [^]. Shareholder rejection of a proposed merger, as activist investors have already indicated opposition to the Netflix deal, also poses a significant risk [^]. Furthermore, if the current bidding war collapses without a definitive 'superior proposal,' or if WBD's financial health deteriorates, the company may instead proceed with its planned separation into two independent entities by mid-2026, negating a full acquisition [^]. Broader macroeconomic headwinds could also hinder large-scale merger financing [^]. Key dates to watch include WBD's Q4 and Full Year 2025 Earnings Release on February 26, 2026, followed by the shareholder vote on the Netflix merger agreement in March 2026 [^]. This period through mid-2026 will also see potential counter-bids, ongoing regulatory reviews by antitrust authorities, and the targeted completion of WBD's previously announced corporate separation if no acquisition takes place [^]. Any definitive merger will face a settlement deadline of July 1, 2027 [^].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: July 07, 2027
  • Closes: July 01, 2027

11. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: The probability of a successful Warner Bros [^] .
  • Trigger: Takeover by July 1, 2027, is significantly influenced by several potential bullish catalysts [^] .
  • Trigger: A major factor is whether the Warner Bros [^] .
  • Trigger: Discovery (WBD) Board deems Paramount Skydance's revised, all-cash offer superior to Netflix's current agreement, potentially triggering Netflix's four-day matching right and a subsequent improved bid [^] .

13. Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.