Who will be the next CEO of Disney?
Short Answer
The model identifies a significant divergence for Josh D'Amaro, who is seen as the most likely next CEO of Disney before 2027, with the model assigning 35.1% probability compared to the market's 50.0%. This indicates the market may be overestimating D'Amaro's likelihood relative to the model's assessment.
1. Executive Verdict
- The Walt Disney Company officially named Josh D'Amaro CEO on February 3, 2026.
- Kalshi's market structure uses independent binary contracts for each CEO candidate.
- Initial market sentiment showed three candidates each with equal prior backing.
- D'Amaro's division success and Wall Street favorability bolstered his candidacy.
- Trian Fund Management has not challenged Disney's leadership post-February 3.
- Bob Iger's Senior Advisor role agreement limits his operational involvement.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh D'Amaro | 1.0% | 100.0% | Bayesian analysis suggests D'Amaro holds a leading position in CEO succession. |
| Dana Walden | 1.0% | 0.0% | Model assessment indicates Walden is a potential candidate for Disney's top job. |
| Alan Bergman | 1.0% | 0.0% | Bayesian model identifies Bergman as a potential Disney CEO candidate. |
| James Pitaro | 1.0% | 0.0% | Posterior probability assessment indicates Pitaro is a strong contender for the CEO role. |
Current Context
The question of who will be the next CEO of Disney has been largely settled. The Walt Disney Company announced on February 3, 2026, that Josh D'Amaro, Chairman of Disney Experiences, has been unanimously elected as the successor to Bob Iger [^]. D'Amaro is set to officially take the helm at the upcoming Annual Meeting on March 18, 2026 [^]. Concurrent with D'Amaro's appointment, Dana Walden, Co-Chairman of Disney Entertainment, was named President and Chief Creative Officer, overseeing film studios, television networks, and streaming platforms, and will report to D'Amaro [^]. Bob Iger will remain CEO until March 18, 2026, transitioning to a Senior Advisor and Board member until his contract expires on December 31, 2026 [^].
D'Amaro's background signals a strategic focus on core experiences. His 28-year career at Disney, particularly his success in leading the Disney Experiences segment, which generated $36 billion in annual revenue in FY2025 and is considered Disney's biggest cash cow, signals a continued prioritization of the parks, cruises, and consumer products [^]. Many analysts and experts view D'Amaro's appointment as the right choice, given the consistent success of the Experiences division, and see the D'Amaro-Walden pairing as a complementary leadership duo [^]. The Board, under pressure to execute a smooth succession, emphasized D'Amaro's "inspiring leadership and innovation" and "keen eye for strategic growth opportunities," learning from the previous challenging transition with Bob Chapek [^]. However, activist investor Nelson Peltz has voiced concerns, suggesting Iger's continued involvement might have influenced the choice of D'Amaro over other candidates like Dana Walden [^].
The new CEO faces significant challenges across an evolving media landscape. D'Amaro must navigate declining linear TV revenues, optimize streaming profitability across Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+, and address concerns about theme park pricing and attendance [^]. Key areas of focus include creating a unified content strategy across platforms, integrating artificial intelligence responsibly to balance innovation with creative integrity, and reinvigorating major franchises like Marvel, Pixar, and Star Wars [^]. Additionally, the company needs to navigate a volatile political and cultural environment [^]. The Annual Meeting of Shareholders on March 18, 2026, is a critical event for D'Amaro's official transition, preceding Bob Iger's full retirement from the company on December 31, 2026 [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market chart for Josh D'Amaro as the next Disney CEO displays a strong, sustained upward trend, originating at a 54.0% probability and advancing to its current price of 99.0%. This trajectory indicates a consistent growth in market confidence over time. The most significant volatility occurred in late January 2026, leading up to the formal resolution. A notable 9.0 percentage point spike on January 28 was directly caused by a Wall Street Journal report about an imminent board meeting to finalize the CEO decision. This was followed by a brief but sharp 10.0 percentage point drop on January 31, a reaction to the specific timing and framing of subsequent news reports which likely created temporary uncertainty among traders.
The total volume of 27,231 contracts traded signifies robust market engagement and high conviction in the eventual outcome. The 80.0% price level appears to have acted as a key support floor during the final period of volatility, holding steady after the pullback from the 90.0% peak. The market ultimately broke through all resistance, surging to 99.0% following the official company announcement on February 3, 2026, confirming D'Amaro's appointment. The chart's overall price action suggests a market that effectively processed and reacted to news and leaks, with sentiment evolving from moderate confidence to near certainty. The current price reflects the market having fully resolved, pricing in the confirmed outcome with minimal remaining risk or friction.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Dana Walden
📉 February 03, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 9.0% to 1.0%
What happened: The primary driver of Dana Walden's prediction market price drop on February 03, 2026, was the official announcement by The Walt Disney Company naming Josh D'Amaro as the new Chief Executive Officer [^]. On this date, Disney formally announced D'Amaro's appointment, effective March 18, 2026, while concurrently announcing that Walden would assume the newly created role of President and Chief Creative Officer [^]. This corporate announcement directly negated the outcome of Walden becoming CEO, causing the immediate market movement [^]. Social media activity, including a message from the new CEO Josh D'Amaro and former CEO Michael Eisner, coincided with and reflected this official news, but was not the primary driver of the price drop [^]. Therefore, social media was mostly noise or irrelevant as a driver of this specific price movement, with the official company announcement being the definitive cause [^].
Outcome: Josh D'Amaro
📉 January 31, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 90.0% to 80.0%
What happened: On January 31, 2026, the primary driver of the 10.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market price for Josh D'Amaro as the next CEO of Disney was the timing and framing of traditional news reports [^]. On January 30, 2026, reports from major outlets like The Wall Street Journal indicated that current CEO Bob Iger planned an early exit, and the board was scheduled to meet "next week" to vote on a successor [^]. While D'Amaro was widely considered the "overwhelming favorite", the absence of an immediate, definitive announcement by January 31, coupled with the news of a future board vote, likely introduced uncertainty, leading to a market correction for his outcome as traders adjusted expectations for an imminent confirmation [^]. Social media activity did not appear to be a primary driver [^].
📈 January 28, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 70.0% to 79.0%
What happened: The 9.0 percentage point spike in Josh D'Amaro's prediction market price on January 28, 2026, was primarily driven by a traditional news report indicating an imminent decision regarding Disney's CEO succession [^]. The Wall Street Journal reported that Disney's board of directors was scheduled to meet "next week" to vote on who would take the top job, and that current CEO Bob Iger was planning to step down prior to the end of his contract [^]. This significant development, likely circulating on or just before January 28, reduced uncertainty in the succession timeline and increased the perceived probability of Josh D'Amaro, a recognized leading internal candidate, being named CEO [^]. This traditional news report appeared to coincide with or immediately precede the price movement, with social media likely acting as a contributing accelerant through rapid dissemination [^].
Outcome: Alan Bergman
📉 January 22, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 23.0% to 13.0%
What happened: The primary driver of Alan Bergman's 10.0 percentage point drop in the "Who will be the next CEO of Disney?" prediction market on January 22, 2026, was likely traditional news indicating an imminent succession announcement coupled with pre-existing reports of his decreased likelihood [^]. On January 22, 2026, Bloomberg Law reported that Disney's succession committee was "closing in on who will succeed Chief Executive Officer Bob Iger" and reiterated that an announcement was expected in early 2026 [^]. This news, coinciding precisely with the market movement, heightened the sense of an impending decision [^]. Leading up to this date, various reports, including one from The Wall Street Journal on December 2, 2025, indicated that Bergman was "considered unlikely to replace Iger by employees and company partners," with Josh D'Amaro and Dana Walden seen as frontrunners [^]. The confirmation of an accelerated timeline for succession, combined with the perception that Bergman was not a top contender, led to the price drop [^]. Social media activity did not appear to be the primary driver [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided page content, there is insufficient information to determine the exact triggers for YES/NO resolutions, key dates/deadlines, or any special settlement conditions. The text only states the market's topic: "Who will be the next CEO of Disney? Odds & Predictions 2026".
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Bergman | $1.00 | $1.00 | 100% |
| Dana Walden | $1.00 | $1.00 | 100% |
| James Pitaro | $1.00 | $1.00 | 100% |
| Josh D'Amaro | $1.00 | $1.00 | 100% |
Market Discussion
Josh D'Amaro, Chairman of Disney Experiences, has been named the next CEO of Disney, succeeding Bob Iger effective March 18, 2026, with Dana Walden taking on the new role of President and Chief Creative Officer [^]. Discussions largely center on D'Amaro's extensive background in the profitable parks division and the board's aim for a smoother transition after the previous challenges with Bob Chapek [^]. While D'Amaro is seen as a "Parks Guy," expert opinions and social media conversations are now focusing on his vision for the company's future, including navigating streaming, IP development, and an unpredictable political environment, and how Walden's strong creative leadership will complement his operational expertise [^].
5. How Do Boards Conduct Deep Background Checks for Executives?
| Vetting Scope | Goes far beyond standard employment screening, multi-layered approach [^] |
|---|---|
| Most Critical Vetting Component | Financial integrity and liability assessment [^] |
| Key Contextual Information | Human Intelligence (HUMINT) and discreet interviews [^] |
Corporate boards employ rigorous third-party due diligence for C-suite appointments. Entities such as The Walt Disney Company's Governance and Nominating Committee contract specialized firms to conduct comprehensive background checks for roles like CEO [^]. This extensive process, which requires the candidate's consent, surpasses standard employment screening. Methodologies include extensive public records and database searches (OSINT), detailed financial integrity assessments, credential and employment verification, and comprehensive digital and reputational analyses across various online platforms, including the deep and dark web [^].
Human Intelligence is critical for assessing executive candidates' character. A significant component of this executive vetting is Human Intelligence (HUMINT), involving discreet interviews with former colleagues and associates to gather contextual insights into a candidate's leadership style, ethics, and temperament [^]. The primary goal of these investigations is to uncover potential personal, professional, and financial liabilities. These can include conflicts of interest, past litigation, reputational concerns, tax non-compliance, significant undisclosed debt, or misrepresentation of credentials [^]. Any material findings are then presented to the board as a detailed risk assessment, which can influence the appointment timeline and potentially necessitate remediation measures to safeguard the company from reputational, financial, legal, and operational risks [^].
Investigations have inherent limitations despite their thoroughness and sophistication. Despite their rigorous nature, deep background investigations possess inherent limitations. Investigators encounter barriers in accessing certain private records without explicit candidate consent, and the subjective nature of HUMINT requires careful corroboration from multiple sources [^]. Further restricting the absolute comprehensiveness of reports are jurisdictional data privacy laws and the challenge of uncovering perfectly concealed information, often referred to as "unknown unknowns." Consequently, a board's ultimate decision is an exercise in risk assessment, relying on the best available information to minimize, rather than entirely eliminate, potential future risks.
6. Is Trian Fund Management Currently Challenging Disney's Leadership or Succession?
| Trian's Disney SEC Filings | No new Schedule 13D or amendments filed for Disney in late 2025 or February 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Trian's Disney Stake | Zero, entire stake liquidated by May 2024 [^] |
| Trian's Current Activism | Active engagement with Wendy's Co. and Janus Henderson Group PLC in 2026 [^] |
Trian has not challenged Disney leadership or succession since February 3. As of February 21, 2026, Trian Fund Management has taken no overt action to challenge The Walt Disney Company's current leadership or its CEO succession plan. There have been no amended Schedule 13D filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) signaling a renewed activist stake in Disney. Furthermore, Trian has issued no public statements, press releases, or white papers critiquing the co-leadership structure or declaring intent for a proxy contest ahead of Disney's March 18, 2026, annual meeting [^].
Trian's disengagement reduces disruption for Disney's succession plan. This current stance follows Trian's unsuccessful proxy contest in April 2024 and the subsequent liquidation of its entire Disney stake by May 2024 [^]. Trian has since shifted its focus, with recent SEC filings indicating active engagement with other portfolio companies, including Wendy's Co. and Janus Henderson Group PLC [^]. Trian's disengagement from Disney removes a significant potential catalyst for disruption in the company's succession planning, thereby increasing the probability that the next CEO will be one of the known internal candidates, such as Josh D'Amaro or Dana Walden. The absence of Trian’s influence allows the board to proceed with its succession plan without external pressure and public scrutiny.
7. What Key Terms Define Iger's Disney Senior Advisor Role?
| New CEO Appointment Date | February 3, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Iger's CEO Contract Expiration | December 31, 2026 [^] |
| Minimum Key Executive Retention for Clawback | 80% over 24 months [^] |
Robert A. Iger's Senior Advisor role agreement institutes clear limits on his operational involvement. The forthcoming agreement for his role at The Walt Disney Company is expected to include non-interference clauses explicitly prohibiting Iger from intervening in operational, strategic, personnel, and creative decisions to safeguard Josh D'Amaro's authority as the new CEO [^]. To further prevent back-channel governance, a "CEO-Nexus" protocol will mandate that all substantive business communications from Iger must be routed through D'Amaro's office, fostering clear lines of authority [^]. These measures aim to address past succession challenges [^].
Iger's compensation is tied to successful leadership transition metrics through robust clawback provisions. A significant portion of his compensation will be subject to these provisions, which are linked to metrics such as relative Total Shareholder Return, the execution of strategic initiatives, and leadership team stability, including an 80% retention rate for the top 25 executives, alongside governance compliance [^]. This financial structure incentivizes Iger to actively support a successful handover and unify the new leadership team.
8. How Would Competitor Financial Distress Impact Disney's CEO Strategy?
| Competitor CDS Spread Signal | >50 basis points widening (Q1 2026 monitoring) [^] |
|---|---|
| Disney Share Buyback Program | $7 billion (Fiscal Year 2026) [^] |
| Historic CEO Prediction Market | Bob Iger tenure on Polymarket in 2023 [^] |
Sudden competitor distress could force Disney's board to re-evaluate leadership. A significant widening of 5-year Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads by over 50 basis points for a major media competitor like Warner Bros. Discovery or Paramount Global would signal potential financial distress. This situation creates a critical strategic juncture for The Walt Disney Company, despite its strong financial momentum and operational focus under CEO Josh D'Amaro entering 2026. Academic research indicates a clear connection between deteriorating credit conditions and potential corporate governance events, including leadership changes [^].
Disney's board would weigh a high-risk M&A strategy against operational excellence. Such a crisis could present an unprecedented opportunity for a transformative acquisition, with a competitor's "fire sale" offering access to valuable IP libraries and subscriber bases at a discount. Pursuing this would potentially necessitate a CEO with deep M&A and integration experience. Conversely, maintaining D'Amaro's leadership would emphasize Disney's current financial fortitude, focus on core competencies, and avoid the substantial risks and distractions associated with large-scale mergers. The final decision would hinge on the quality and value of the assets available in any potential acquisition.
Investor sentiment and board's recent choices influence leadership change likelihood. Prediction markets, which historically gauge sentiment on Disney leadership [^], would serve as a real-time barometer of investor expectations regarding D'Amaro's tenure. A substantial shift in these market odds would signal influential participants' belief that an M&A opportunity warrants a leadership change. Despite the potential for opportunistic acquisitions, the overall likelihood of a CEO pivot at Disney before 2027 due to competitor distress is assessed as low but non-trivial. This assessment is primarily due to the board's recent deliberate choice of an operational leader and the company's strong organic growth trajectory. A pivot would likely only occur if an extraordinary M&A opportunity arises that strongly compels key institutional stakeholders.
9. How Did Advisory Firms Differ on Disney's 2024 Board Succession?
| ISS Recommendation | Vote FOR Nelson Peltz, WITHHOLD Maria Elena Lagomasino |
|---|---|
| Glass Lewis Recommendation | Endorsed Disney's entire 12-director slate |
| Proxy Contest Outcome | Disney's management slate prevailed; full slate of 12 directors re-elected |
No specific shareholder proposals targeted Josh D'Amaro's board election in Disney's 2024 proxy season. Shareholder discontent was primarily channeled through a high-profile proxy contest initiated by Trian Fund Management, led by Nelson Peltz. Trian sought to replace two incumbent directors, Maria Elena Lagomasino and Michael B.G. Froman, rather than D'Amaro, framing their challenge as a vote of no-confidence in the board's oversight regarding past CEO succession issues and perceived value destruction. The definitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) confirmed the absence of specific shareholder proposals targeting D'Amaro.
Proxy advisory firms offered split recommendations on Disney's board slate for the annual meeting. Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) recommended shareholders vote 'FOR' Nelson Peltz and 'WITHHOLD' their vote for incumbent director Maria Elena Lagomasino. This recommendation was based on ISS's concerns over the board's handling of the "failed 2020 succession" involving Bob Chapek and Bob Iger. Conversely, Glass Lewis endorsed Disney's entire slate of 12 director nominees, expressing confidence in the current board's direction and rejecting the activist arguments. Neither firm recommended against Disney's executive compensation plan as a direct protest against the succession process.
Disney's management slate ultimately prevailed in the high-profile proxy contest at the April 3, 2024 annual meeting. Shareholders re-elected the company's full slate of 12 directors. While this outcome provides the incumbent board with a mandate to proceed with its own CEO succession process, the intense scrutiny during the proxy fight, particularly ISS's focus on past "succession failures", has significantly amplified pressure on the board to execute a seamless and successful transition when Bob Iger eventually departs. The board's victory comes with heightened expectations, making the next succession event its sole responsibility and a critical test of its continued effectiveness.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key bullish catalysts for Josh D'Amaro's appointment as Disney CEO included his division's strong financial results and growth in Parks, Experiences and Products, bolstering his standing as a proven leader. News and rumors indicating the Disney board's preference for an internal candidate with deep operational experience, combined with D'Amaro being a 'Wall Street favorite' due to his success, significantly increased his probability. The succession committee's intent to select a successor by early 2026, led by James Gorman, set a clear timeline. Notably, reports in October 2025, such as by Bloomberg, highlighted that the CEO search had narrowed to D'Amaro and Dana Walden, with D'Amaro emerging as the strong front-runner [^]. Bob Iger's announcement in January 2026 to leave before his contract ended further accelerated the succession process, culminating in D'Amaro's official naming as CEO on February 3, 2026 [^].
Conversely, several bearish catalysts could have altered the market's trajectory. Exceptional performance or significant strategic wins by other internal candidates, such as Dana Walden or Alan Bergman, or the unexpected emergence of a strong external candidate, despite the board's internal focus, posed potential threats. Speculation regarding a further extension of Bob Iger's contract beyond December 2026, though he later announced an earlier departure, could have delayed an imminent change. Additionally, reports in October 2025 that Disney considered a co-CEO structure could have complicated the prediction. Throughout the process, quarterly earnings results and major company presentations would have served as critical indicators influencing board decisions and market sentiment.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2027
- Closes: February 06, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Key bullish catalysts for Josh D'Amaro's appointment as Disney CEO included his division's strong financial results and growth in Parks, Experiences and Products, bolstering his standing as a proven leader.
- Trigger: News and rumors indicating the Disney board's preference for an internal candidate with deep operational experience, combined with D'Amaro being a 'Wall Street favorite' due to his success, significantly increased his probability.
- Trigger: The succession committee's intent to select a successor by early 2026, led by James Gorman, set a clear timeline.
- Trigger: Notably, reports in October 2025, such as by Bloomberg, highlighted that the CEO search had narrowed to D'Amaro and Dana Walden, with D'Amaro emerging as the strong front-runner [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 4 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 3 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXNEWROLEDISNEY-27JAN-JOSH: YES (Feb 06, 2026)
- KXNEWROLEDISNEY-27JAN-JAME: NO (Feb 06, 2026)
- KXNEWROLEDISNEY-27JAN-DANA: NO (Feb 06, 2026)
- KXNEWROLEDISNEY-27JAN-ALAN: NO (Feb 06, 2026)
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