Who will acquire Pinterest this year?
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing: OpenAI is the most likely acquirer of Pinterest by 2027 at 25.9% model vs 15.0% market, suggesting the market is underestimating this acquisition.
1. Executive Verdict
- Co-founder Ben Silbermann halted stock sales, signaling potential value event.
- Pinterest's stock collapse makes it a significantly more attractive acquisition target.
- Antitrust hurdles are underestimated for incumbents; lower for disruptive players.
- Major technology firms are actively hiring M&A talent, indicating readiness.
- OpenAI views Pinterest's image data and ad infrastructure as valuable.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 17% | 30% | Pinterest's rich visual data and user base offer strategic value for AI model integration. |
| Meta | 16% | 7% | Antitrust hurdles are a significant concern for Meta in a potential acquisition. |
| Amazon | 18% | 16% | Pinterest's visual shopping capabilities offer strong synergy with Amazon's e-commerce platform. |
| Google / Alphabet | 8% | 3% | Antitrust scrutiny poses a significant challenge for Google acquiring Pinterest. |
| Microsoft | 8% | 8% | Pinterest's platform could enhance Microsoft's advertising reach and consumer offerings. |
Current Context
Speculation regarding a potential Pinterest acquisition this year is intensifying [^] . This heightened interest is primarily fueled by a speculative report from "The Information" predicting OpenAI as a buyer in 2026, alongside Pinterest's recent disappointing financial results [^]. On February 12-13, 2026, Pinterest reported Fourth Quarter 2025 earnings and a First Quarter 2026 forecast that fell below analysts' expectations, triggering a significant stock drop of over 18% in after-hours trading, with shares plummeting to nearly $14 from $25 in premarket trading on February 13, 2026 [^]. These poor results reignited acquisition discussions, with some social media users specifically suggesting a deal with OpenAI [^]. Consequently, analysts adjusted price targets, with Benchmark lowering its target to $34 while maintaining a "Buy" rating, HSBC downgrading to "Hold" with a target of $24.90 due to AI investment concerns, and Evercore ISI cutting its rating to "in line" citing competitive intensity and declining revenue [^]. Kecia Steelman, CEO of Ulta Beauty, was also appointed to Pinterest's Board of Directors in February 2026.
Key data points underscore Pinterest's current market position and potential as an acquisition target [^] . The company's stock, trading around $25 in early January 2026 with a market capitalization of approximately $17.5 billion, dropped significantly after the Q4 earnings report, pushing its P/E ratio to near a five-year low of 6.44, potentially signaling undervaluation [^]. A February 2026 Discounted Cash Flow analysis even suggested Pinterest could be 76.1% undervalued, with an estimated intrinsic value of $81.93 per share [^]. Pinterest reported 619 million global monthly active users (MAUs) in Q4 2025, an increase of 19 million year-over-year, with U.S. and Canada MAUs estimated at approximately 106.1 million [^]. Financially, Q4 2025 revenue of $1.32 billion and adjusted profit of $0.56 per share both fell below analyst estimates, as did the Q1 2026 revenue forecast of $951 million to $971 million [^]. Experts suggest OpenAI's interest stems from Pinterest's extensive image data, advertising infrastructure, and merchant relationships, which could bolster OpenAI's online shopping and advertising ambitions and complement its image and video generation tools [^]. Despite recent downgrades, analysts generally hold a "Moderate Buy" consensus, with an average 12-month price target suggesting significant upside [^]. However, Pinterest's co-founders, Ben Silbermann and Paul Sciarra, control roughly two-thirds of the company's voting shares.
However, a potential acquisition, particularly by OpenAI, presents several common questions and concerns [^] . A significant concern is the potential negative reaction and backlash from Pinterest users, who worry that AI integration could disrupt the platform's core identity as a creative space and turn their curated boards into "raw material for machine learning pipelines" [^]. There are also concerns about Pinterest's ability to compete in the increasingly crowded digital landscape against tech giants like Google and Meta, as well as the re-emergence of TikTok U.S. and ChatGPT, which could siphon off users and advertising revenue [^]. Any acquisition by OpenAI would likely face substantial regulatory scrutiny regarding data usage, competition, and AI governance, raising questions about privacy and market power [^]. Following the weak Q4 results, investors are also questioning Pinterest's current leadership and strategic direction for reviving growth in key markets [^]. The market reaction to acquisition rumors often reflects pure speculation, leading to volatile stock movements rather than fundamental shifts [^]. While no specific acquisition deadlines were reported, the recent Q4 2025 earnings report and Q1 2026 guidance have significantly influenced current sentiment. The acquisition of tvScientific in December 2025 is expected to cause a roughly 100-basis-point drag to adjusted EBITDA margin in 2026.
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has demonstrated a consistent and significant downward trend, indicating steadily decreasing confidence in a Pinterest acquisition occurring before 2027. Opening at a peak probability of 29.0%, the market's price has eroded to its current level of 13.0%, trading near its all-time low of 12.0%. A key event in this decline was the sharp 9.0 percentage point drop on January 17, 2026, when the price fell from 27.0% to 18.0%. According to the provided context, this drop was a direct reaction to the lack of any official confirmation following a speculative report about an OpenAI acquisition, which was further amplified by negative social media sentiment from Pinterest users. This movement shows the market's sensitivity to rumors and its swift punishment when speculation fails to materialize into concrete news.
From a technical perspective, the market has established a clear resistance level near its opening high of $0.29-$0.30, a peak of optimism it has failed to retest. Conversely, the recent price action around $0.12-$0.13 suggests a potential support level, representing the floor of a small minority of traders who still believe an acquisition is possible. The total volume of 20,719 contracts traded indicates a moderately liquid market with sustained interest in the question. However, the persistent downward price pressure suggests that the majority of this trading volume has reinforced the negative outlook. Overall, the chart reflects a deeply bearish market sentiment, where initial speculative excitement has given way to a sustained belief that an acquisition is unlikely to be announced within the contract's timeframe, a view likely solidified by Pinterest's recent poor financial performance.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Amazon
📈 February 03, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 6.0% to 14.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 8.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for "Amazon" acquiring Pinterest on February 03, 2026, was likely the traditional news announcement on January 23, 2026, that Pinterest hired Claudine Cheever, a former Amazon marketing executive, as its new Chief Marketing Officer [^]. This strategic personnel move signaled a deepening alignment between the two companies towards an AI-driven shopping focus, sparking speculation among market participants about a potential acquisition by Amazon [^]. While an expanded Amazon-Pinterest social selling partnership was reported on February 10, 2026, the earlier executive hire appears to have preceded and fueled the acquisition sentiment [^]. Social media activity specifically predicting an Amazon acquisition on February 3, 2026, from key figures or viral narratives was not identified, rendering it mostly noise or irrelevant for this particular price movement [^].
Outcome: Microsoft
📈 January 31, 2026: 12.0pp spike
Price increased from 7.0% to 19.0%
What happened: Research into the prediction market price movement for "Who will acquire Pinterest this year?" with "Microsoft" as the outcome on January 31, 2026, did not yield a clear primary driver [^]. The provided search results predominantly refer to past rumors from February 2021 about Microsoft considering acquiring Pinterest, with those talks having stalled [^]. More recent news from early January 2026 indicated predictions of OpenAI acquiring Pinterest, not Microsoft, which even caused a rise in Pinterest's stock at that time [^]. No social media activity from key figures or traditional news announcements on or around January 31, 2026, linked Microsoft to a Pinterest acquisition or a significant price spike in this context [^]. Based on the available information, social media activity was irrelevant [^].
Outcome: Meta
📈 January 24, 2026: 12.0pp spike
Price increased from 14.0% to 26.0%
What happened: Despite a thorough review of news and social media activity around January 24, 2026, there is no discernible primary driver in the form of specific social media posts or traditional news announcements directly linking Meta Platforms to an acquisition of Pinterest [^]. While Pinterest was the subject of acquisition rumors by OpenAI earlier in January 2026, which briefly boosted its stock, these did not involve Meta [^]. Meta itself experienced a positive market sentiment in late January due to strong Q4 earnings and AI investments, but this was general to the company's performance, not a specific Pinterest acquisition [^]. Therefore, social media activity appears to be irrelevant as a primary driver for the 12.0 percentage point spike for the "Meta" outcome in the "Who will acquire Pinterest this year?" prediction market on January 24, 2026 [^]. The movement may instead be attributable to market structure factors or noise, given the absence of direct public information supporting a Meta-Pinterest acquisition at that time [^].
Outcome: OpenAI
📉 January 17, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 27.0% to 18.0%
What happened: The 9.0 percentage point drop on January 17, 2026, in the prediction market for "OpenAI" acquiring Pinterest was primarily driven by the sustained lack of official confirmation following a speculative report, compounded by significant negative social media backlash from Pinterest users [^]. A January 2, 2026, report from The Information, predicting OpenAI's acquisition of Pinterest, initially boosted Pinterest's stock and generated buzz [^]. However, by January 6, "fury among some users" on Reddit and other platforms emerged, expressing strong disapproval over the potential integration of AI and the future of their creative content [^]. This user sentiment, combined with the continued absence of any official statements from OpenAI or Pinterest confirming the deal, likely led to a market correction as initial speculation subsided and the feasibility of the acquisition appeared less certain [^]. Social media activity, specifically the widespread user opposition, acted as a contributing accelerant, signaling potential friction for any such deal [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A YES resolution triggers if Pinterest is acquired within the year 2026. Conversely, a NO resolution is triggered if Pinterest is not acquired by the end of 2026. No special settlement conditions are specified in the provided content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon | $0.18 | $0.88 | 18% |
| OpenAI | $0.17 | $0.87 | 17% |
| Meta | $0.16 | $0.89 | 16% |
| Google / Alphabet | $0.08 | $0.96 | 8% |
| Microsoft | $0.08 | $0.97 | 8% |
| PayPal | $0.05 | $0.99 | 5% |
Market Discussion
Discussions surrounding the potential acquisition of Pinterest in 2026 are heavily focused on OpenAI as the most likely acquirer, with news commentary and expert opinions highlighting Pinterest's vast image data, advertising infrastructure, and merchant relationships as key attractions for OpenAI's expansion into online shopping and AI advancements [^]. While some on social media express concerns about "AI slop" and user backlash if an acquisition by OpenAI occurs, prediction markets show mixed odds, with Kalshi indicating a 54% chance of OpenAI acquiring Pinterest by early 2027, and other potential suitors like Meta and Amazon also being considered [^].
5. Did Ben Silbermann's Stock Sales Halt Signal Pinterest Acquisition?
| Shares Sold Post-Feb 2026 | 0 shares [^] |
|---|---|
| Last Recorded Sale (2025) | October 1, 2025 [^] |
| Typical 2025 Transaction Volume | Approximately 102,083 shares [^] |
Ben Silbermann halted all stock sales following the February 2026 decline. Analysis of SEC Form 4 filings indicates a complete cessation of stock sales by Pinterest co-founder Ben Silbermann after the February 2026 stock price drop, continuing through 2026 [^]. This contrasts sharply with his consistent, pre-scheduled selling activity observed throughout 2025. During that period, he typically divested approximately 102,083 shares per major transaction cluster, generating between $3.5 million and $3.7 million at share prices ranging from $34 to $37 [^]. His last recorded sale was on October 1, 2025 [^], marking a significant departure from his established pattern.
This abrupt cessation strongly suggests possession of Material Non-Public Information. The halt in Silbermann's regular selling program can be primarily interpreted as an indication of Material Non-Public Information (MNPI). Insiders are legally prohibited from engaging in trades while in possession of MNPI, with serious acquisition discussions clearly falling under this category. A sudden and complete halt to a regular selling schedule, especially when aligned with a market downturn that makes the company a more appealing acquisition target, is a classic sign that an insider has entered a trading "blackout" period, potentially due to confidential corporate events like acquisition negotiations.
Silbermann's actions raise the likelihood of a 2026 Pinterest acquisition. This notable change in behavior carries significant implications for the prediction market concerning a 2026 acquisition of Pinterest, markedly increasing the probability of a "Yes" outcome. By choosing not to sell at current valuations, Silbermann implicitly signals a personal conviction that the stock is either undervalued or that a significant corporate event is pending, thereby strengthening the board's negotiating position to demand a premium in any potential acquisition talks. While other interpretations exist, the precise timing and the deviation from his past trading behavior strongly point towards a possible merger and acquisition event.
6. Are Strategic Hires Pointing Towards a Pinterest Takeover?
| Forward EV/EBITDA Multiple | 10.4x (43% discount to peers) [^] |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.22 (near five-year low) [^] |
| Q1 2026 Revenue Growth Projection | 11-14% [^] |
Major technology firms and private equity are hiring M&A talent for growth. Key technology players such as Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, along with leading private equity firms, are actively acquiring M&A talent with documented expertise in social media, visual search, and AI-driven advertising. This strategic talent acquisition signals their intent to pursue inorganic growth opportunities that align with assets in the social commerce and visual search sectors, reflecting a calculated response to emerging market opportunities.
Pinterest is a compelling acquisition target due to undervaluation and strong operations. The platform currently trades at a forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.4x, representing a 43% discount to its peers [^], and its P/E ratio of 9.22 is near a five-year low [^]. This valuation exists despite strong operational performance, including record user growth and significant advancements in AI-powered product features [^], which enhance its value as a data-rich platform for next-generation AI models and advertising. The confluence of a motivated buyer pool, a strong M&A environment driven by AI [^], and Pinterest's attractive strategic profile and financial entry point creates a high probability for an acquisition before 2027. While a specific prediction centered on OpenAI [^] highlights Pinterest's value, a broader set of well-capitalized acquirers are now strategically positioned, suggesting that an acquisition of Pinterest is increasingly likely.
7. How Do Activist Investors Influence Pinterest's 2026 Acquisition Odds?
| Elliott Management Stake | 9% (July 2022) [^] |
|---|---|
| Co-Founder Voting Control | Approximately two-thirds of voting shares [^] |
| Top 2026 Acquisition Probabilities | Meta (18%), Amazon (16%), OpenAI (14%) (Kalshi [^]) |
Elliott Management holds a substantial stake, but founder control limits sale pressure. Elliott established a significant 9% stake in Pinterest in July 2022, becoming its largest investor, and secured a board seat by December 2022. While Elliott continues to advocate for operational efficiency and monetization, any activist-led sale faces a formidable obstacle: co-founders Ben Silbermann and Paul Sciarra control approximately two-thirds of the company's voting shares. This considerable founder control effectively prevents a hostile takeover, necessitating a strategy of persuasion rather than coercion from Elliott, as traditional activist tactics like proxy contests are impossible without founder consent.
Activist pressure fuels acquisition speculation, particularly for Pinterest's valuable data. The ongoing activist pressure and strategic interest are reflected in prediction markets, with Kalshi indicating Meta (18%), Amazon (16%), and OpenAI (14%) as leading potential acquirers in 2026 [^]. OpenAI's reported interest specifically highlights Pinterest's meticulously organized dataset for AI model training, signifying a shift in acquisition rationales. Elliott's presence acts as a multiplier on acquisition probabilities by forcing strategic reviews and enhancing operational improvements, making Pinterest a cleaner and more attractive target. The ultimate outcome hinges on whether the founders are swayed by Elliott's arguments and a compelling offer, or if they believe Pinterest's standalone AI-driven strategy can deliver superior long-term value.
8. Which Tech Integrations Point to a Pinterest Acquisition by 2027?
| Adobe CAPI Event Forwarding Launch | October 28, 2025 [^] |
|---|---|
| Shopify App Rating | 4.1/5 from over 1,500 reviews [^] |
| ROAS from Shopify Integrations | 15% higher [^] |
Pinterest's deep product integrations with Adobe and Shopify indicate strategic alignment. Pinterest exhibits substantial product integrations with both Adobe and Shopify, signaling strong strategic alignment and potential acquisition interest. Adobe's partnerships, particularly the launch of the Pinterest Conversions API event forwarding extension for Adobe Experience Platform on October 28, 2025 [^], illustrate deep integration across creative, commerce, and analytics functions. Concurrently, Pinterest's long-standing relationship with Shopify continues to solidify its role in social commerce, evidenced by a highly-rated app (4.1/5 from over 1,500 reviews) [^] that has led to a reported 15% higher Return on Ad Spend (ROAS) for merchants [^]. These technical underpinnings suggest a precursor to potential acquisition offers.
Adobe is the most probable acquirer, while Shopify presents a medium likelihood. Given the existing integrations, Adobe emerges as the most probable acquirer due to highly synergistic and de-risked operational fusion across its core clouds. The comprehensive depth and breadth of these Adobe integrations, especially the server-side API link into Adobe Experience Platform [^], lean heavily towards an active exploration of a deeper combination, positioning Adobe as the most likely acquirer before 2027. Shopify also presents a medium-probability vertical integration play to own the social commerce funnel, leveraging proven value through existing app integrations [^]. Conversely, Microsoft's collaboration is comparatively shallower, focusing mainly on advertising campaign portability, indicating a lower likelihood of a near-term acquisition. While these integrations could defensively maintain Pinterest's neutrality, the extensive Adobe integrations, particularly the server-side API link [^], strongly suggest an active exploration of a deeper combination.
9. What Are the Antitrust Risks for Acquiring Pinterest by 2027?
| OpenAI Acquisition Timeline | 16-24+ months (Low probability of approval) |
|---|---|
| Google/Meta Acquisition Timeline | 6-9 months (Extremely Low probability of approval) |
| Private Equity Acquisition Timeline | 10-15 months (Moderate-High probability of approval) |
Antitrust enforcement is aggressively challenging mergers, particularly in digital platforms and AI. The period from 2024 to early 2026 is marked by an expansive approach from the FTC and DOJ, resulting in elevated merger challenges, prolonged review durations, and specific scrutiny in digital platforms and artificial intelligence sectors. An acquisition of Pinterest by a non-competitor tech giant, such as OpenAI, faces substantial antitrust risk due to concerns over input foreclosure via exclusive data access, potential vertical integration extending market dominance, and the elimination of nascent competition from Pinterest's own AI-driven capabilities. Such a transaction would likely endure a lengthy regulatory process, estimated at 16-24 months, with a low probability of approval, often concluding in litigation or abandonment.
Direct ad-market competitors face insurmountable antitrust opposition. An acquisition of Pinterest by a direct digital advertising competitor like Google or Meta would carry a near-zero chance of approval. Regulators would almost certainly challenge such a deal as classic horizontal consolidation, viewing it as a clear path to market entrenchment and a continuation of an illegal 'buy-not-build' acquisition pattern. This scenario is projected to resolve within 6-9 months, predominantly through abandonment or a court injunction.
Private equity acquisitions present the least problematic antitrust risk. An acquisition by a major private equity firm, while still facing increased scrutiny regarding 'roll-up' strategies and interlocking directorates, offers the most viable path. This scenario estimates a resolution timeline of 10-15 months and carries a moderate-high probability of clearance, contingent upon the firm maintaining a clean portfolio without significant competitive overlaps.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Potential acquisition of Pinterest could be driven by several bullish catalysts. OpenAI's reported interest [^], stemming from Pinterest's valuable image data, advertising infrastructure, and merchant relationships, is a primary factor. The company's strong financial performance, including robust user growth (reaching a record 600 million MAU in Q3 2025 and 619 million in Q4 2025) [^] and revenue increases (Q3 2025 revenue of $1.049 billion, Q4 2025 of $1.319 billion) [^], further enhance its appeal, especially with successful AI-powered features. A generally supportive tech M&A environment [^] and the potential emergence of other tech giants like Alphabet or Amazon as suitors [^] also bolster the 'Yes' probability.
Conversely, several factors could deter an acquisition. Pinterest has faced ongoing challenges in monetizing its platform, particularly in key U.S. and Canadian markets [^]. The current heightened regulatory scrutiny and potential antitrust hurdles for large tech mergers [^] pose significant risks, possibly delaying or derailing a deal. Concerns over user dissatisfaction with AI content, as seen on other platforms like Reddit [^], could also diminish Pinterest's attractiveness if not managed effectively. Additionally, any future earnings reports that fall below expectations [^], issues with founder control over voting shares [^], or doubts about OpenAI's financial capacity to undertake a large acquisition [^] could push the 'No' probability higher. Investors should also monitor Pinterest's Q1, Q2, and Q3 2026 earnings reports [^] for further insights before the prediction market's settlement date.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 08, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Potential acquisition of Pinterest could be driven by several bullish catalysts.
- Trigger: OpenAI's reported interest [^] , stemming from Pinterest's valuable image data, advertising infrastructure, and merchant relationships, is a primary factor.
- Trigger: The company's strong financial performance, including robust user growth (reaching a record 600 million MAU in Q3 2025 and 619 million in Q4 2025) [^] and revenue increases (Q3 2025 revenue of $1.049 billion, Q4 2025 of $1.319 billion) [^] , further enhance its appeal, especially with successful AI-powered features.
- Trigger: A generally supportive tech M&A environment [^] and the potential emergence of other tech giants like Alphabet or Amazon as suitors [^] also bolster the 'Yes' probability.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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