Which bank will take SpaceX public?

Morgan Stanley consistently leads Musk's major transactions exceeding $5 billion since 2020. The firm has emerged as Elon Musk's most frequent and senior financial partner for these significant deals. Notably, Morgan Stanley held lead roles in the 2022 $44 billion acquisition of Twitter (now X), leading a $12.5 billion margin loan and serving as a lead arranger for the $13 billion senior secured debt. Furthermore, after the Twitter acquisition, Morgan Stanley explicitly provided a $5 billion debt facility for Musk's artificial intelligence venture, xAI.

Other contenders lack recent lead roles in Musk's largest deals. Major banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan were not involved in a lead capacity in the Twitter acquisition financing. While Goldman Sachs had a historical lead role in Tesla's 2010 IPO, Tesla's post-2020 capital raises were typically at-the-market (ATM) offerings with multiple agents, which did not establish a clear 'lead-left' scenario. Given Morgan Stanley's demonstrated commitment, capacity for handling complex transactions, and established senior relationship with Musk across his various ventures, the firm is considered the leading candidate to underwrite a potential SpaceX IPO.

Goldman Sachs did not secure top-three dual-sector equity research rankings. Publicly available 2023 Institutional Investor (II) rankings indicate Goldman Sachs was not among the top five firms overall, with BofA Securities, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley taking the top three positions, respectively. Detailed, sector-specific rankings for individual firms are considered proprietary, and no public information currently supports Goldman Sachs's claimed top-three equity research team presence in both the 'Software' and 'Aerospace & Defense' sectors for 2023.

Goldman Sachs demonstrates significant strength in lead-managing technology IPOs. The firm has lead-managed approximately $27.61 billion in technology Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) since 2019, surpassing initial estimates. This portfolio includes notable transactions such as Arm Holdings, Reddit, and Unity Software, showcasing the firm's elite Equity Capital Markets (ECM) capabilities and experience with complex, high-profile offerings. The ability to execute large-scale IPOs is considered a critical factor for a potential mandate, often outweighing unconfirmed research accolades.

Lead underwriter selection for a potential SpaceX IPO will prioritize specific expertise. A deal of this magnitude, merging aerospace, telecommunications, and technology, will require deep sector relationships, extensive experience with founder-led companies, and robust global distribution power. While Goldman Sachs is a strong contender due to its execution pedigree, Morgan Stanley holds a significant advantage as Elon Musk's long-time banker for both Tesla and X. JPMorgan also presents a credible threat, given its strong overall II ranking and substantial financial resources. Consequently, a "super-syndicate" involving multiple top-tier banks, likely including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan, is highly probable for such a large offering.

Banks successfully offloaded a significant portion of the X Corp debt, dramatically recovering from prior lows. The banking syndicate successfully offloaded $6.7 billion of X Corp debt in early 2025 at near-par values, with the first major tranche selling at 97 cents on the dollar and a subsequent tranche at 98 cents on the dollar. This represented a dramatic recovery from the loan's low of 60 cents on the dollar in late 2022. The turnaround was driven by X Corp's perceived stabilization, strategic corporate restructuring that integrated X Corp with xAI and SpaceX, and the attachment of a claim on xAI Corp equity, which enhanced collateral for the lenders. This successful syndication was a coordinated effort by all seven banks to prudently de-risk their balance sheets.

Morgan Stanley solidified its role as Elon Musk's premier strategic financial partner through this process. Morgan Stanley's leadership in orchestrating this successful secondary market sale, despite the initial challenges of a "hung" debt, significantly strengthened its position. This performance demonstrated their ability to execute under extreme pressure and manage complex financial situations within Musk's evolving corporate empire. Consequently, Morgan Stanley is now considered the definitive frontrunner to lead a potential SpaceX IPO in 2027-2028. While Bank of America remains a strong and reliable partner, Morgan Stanley's deep, tested relationship and unparalleled insight into the interconnected X Corp, xAI, and SpaceX structure provide an undeniable competitive advantage.

SpaceX's forthcoming IPO has spurred intense competition among top investment banks. This competition includes intelligence suggesting non-standard personal liquidity packages are being offered to Elon Musk as a strategic incentive to secure the IPO mandate. SpaceX reported approximately $8 billion in EBITDA on $15-16 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2025. A December 2025 secondary market tender offer implied an $800 billion valuation. The planned 2026 IPO targets a valuation between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion, further bolstered by the recent merger with xAI, which created a combined entity valued at approximately $1.25 trillion.

Investment banks are highly motivated to secure the prestigious lead-left IPO mandate. This motivation stems from the potential for securing what could be the largest IPO in history, along with deepening relationships and securing future ancillary business with Musk's other ventures. A $10-20 billion loan, collateralized by Musk's estimated 42% stake (worth approximately $525 billion at a $1.25 trillion valuation ), would represent a low loan-to-value ratio, making it an attractive risk profile for banks. These packages would likely be structured as Variable Prepaid Forwards or bespoke asset-backed loans, offering Musk significant flexibility, tax deferral, and aligning with his known preference for borrowing against equity rather than selling it outright.

The intense competition could establish new precedents for IPO mandates. The 'bake-off' among leading institutions such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America is underscored by the IPO's potential to catalyze a 'hectocorn boom'. Confirmation of such a substantial pre-IPO liquidity package would set a new precedent for how IPO mandates are awarded, influencing how other ultra-large private companies select their underwriters. While direct public confirmation of a specific bank's offer exceeding $10 billion remains elusive, the strategic context, the anticipated market recovery in 2025, and high confidence in SpaceX's $1.5 trillion valuation target strongly support the plausibility of these proposals.

Private jet tracking for executive meetings faces significant data limitations. An investigation found no publicly verifiable in-person meetings between specific TMT banking executives and SpaceX leadership (CFO Bret Johnsen, CEO Elon Musk) within the last 60 days. This conclusion stems from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) not publicly disseminating historical flight path data for specific aircraft or providing passenger manifests. Furthermore, high-profile entities, including SpaceX, extensively utilize FAA privacy programs such as Limited Aircraft Data Displayed (LADD) and Privacy ICAO Address (PIA), which mask or block their aircraft from public tracking websites.

Attributing specific flights to particular executives remains highly speculative. Even when aircraft are tracked, connecting a flight to a specific executive or business purpose is challenging. Corporate jets serve entire organizations, and executives often use charter services specifically to maintain privacy. The systematic monitoring of individuals' movements to infer confidential business strategy also raises considerable ethical and privacy concerns. Consequently, relying solely on flight tracking is deemed an unreliable and insufficient strategy for predicting a lead underwriter for a potential SpaceX IPO.

Alternative strategies are needed to predict potential SpaceX banking relationships. The absence of a clear signal from aviation data suggests that discussions may be virtual, conducted with extreme discretion using non-attributable charter aircraft, or involve multiple banks in a competitive 'bake-off.' For the prediction market, a more robust strategy involves focusing on historical banking relationships, tracking strategic personnel movements, and analyzing public statements from financial leaders, rather than relying on publicly visible flight patterns.

Key bullish catalysts include an official announcement from SpaceX naming lead underwriters for its IPO, with Morgan Stanley often seen as a favorite due to its strong relationship with Elon Musk. If one of the rumored lead banks (Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley) successfully leads other highly anticipated large IPOs in the technology or aerospace sector, it could increase confidence in their ability to handle the SpaceX deal. Additionally, any public news of a specific bank deepening its relationship with SpaceX or Elon Musk through advisory services or participation in new private funding rounds would signal a stronger likelihood of securing the lead IPO mandate. Favorable reports on the integration of xAI into SpaceX could also make the IPO more attractive, solidifying the roles of selected lead banks. The reported target window for the IPO is mid-to-late 2026, with preparations, including discussions with private investors and non-U.S. banks for syndicate roles, already underway. Conversely, significant bearish catalysts could delay or even cancel the SpaceX IPO before the 2028 settlement date. These include a severe and sustained downturn in global equity markets, a general lack of investor appetite for large technology or aerospace offerings, or poor performance of recent large IPOs. Major operational setbacks for SpaceX, such as critical failures in Starship development or widespread issues with the Starlink network, could negatively impact its valuation and the feasibility of a successful public offering. Heightened regulatory investigations or anti-trust concerns regarding the combined SpaceX-xAI entity, or any significant change in Elon Musk's strategic direction or control of the company, could also complicate the process. Finally, a public withdrawal of a key bank from consideration for the lead underwriting role would be bearish for that specific bank's market outcome, while Elon Musk's historical preference for keeping companies private longer than anticipated remains an overarching risk.