Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Anduril to be the most likely company the US will take a stake in before 2027, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- US government now directly invests in strategic domestic industries.
- Economic downturns or recession could trigger government bailouts.
- Industrial policy emphasis secures critical supply chains, driving government stakes.
- U.S. government rare earth investments prioritize strategic supply chain development.
- Extended CFIUS processing times may lead to U.S. government equity stakes.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 11% | 9% | Market higher by 2.0pp |
| Palantir | 18% | 0.3% | The administration's unprecedented and systematic strategy of taking equity stakes in companies critical to the national security supply chain provides Grade A evidence for a potential stake in Palantir, but the market's correct identification of Palantir as a software company—an outlier to the established hard-asset investment pattern—creates a bilateral conflict that tempers the final probability. |
| Nvidia | 19% | 16% | Market higher by 3.0pp |
| Rigetti | 13% | 12% | Market higher by 1.0pp |
| Lockheed Martin | 20% | 17.5% | Market higher by 2.5pp |
Current Context
The US government is actively acquiring stakes in critical companies, marking a significant departure from traditional free-market approaches since 2025. Under the current Trump administration, this strategy focuses on sectors deemed vital for national security and economic strength. Recent major investments include a $1.6 billion injection into Oklahoma-based USA Rare Earth on February 3, 2026, granting a 10% equity stake and warrants, funded by a loan and CHIPS and Science Act funds. This follows an $8.9 billion investment in Intel Corporation in August 2025 for approximately a 10% equity stake and a $400 million Department of Defense investment in MP Materials Corp. in July 2025, which later saw a 7.5% stake mentioned. Other direct equity participants include Vulcan Elements, which received a $50 million investment as part of a $1.4 billion commitment to Vulcan Elements and ReElement Technologies in November 2025, aimed at rebuilding rare-earth magnet supply chains. Beyond direct stakes, the government has acquired a "golden share" in U.S. Steel, providing veto power over critical decisions, and is reportedly taking a portion of revenues from Nvidia and AMD chip sales to China in exchange for export licenses, indicating broader influence over corporate decisions. Additional companies where the federal government has acquired ownership stakes since July 2025 include Lithium Americas, Trilogy Metals, Korea Zinc, and Atlantic Alumina Company.
The intervention aims to secure supply chains, but faces significant debate regarding its efficacy and implications. The rationale behind these actions is to enhance national security, strengthen the economy, rebuild critical supply chains, and reduce reliance on foreign rivals, particularly China. Funding mechanisms include CHIPS Act grants, Department of Defense investments, and Department of Commerce funding and loans. Proponents, such as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, argue that this industrial policy is essential for maintaining competitive parity with non-market economies and ensuring U.S. dominance in areas like artificial intelligence. Experts describe this as a "profound shift" towards a "Portfolio State," using public capital to secure supply chains and shape market outcomes. However, critics express concerns that government equity stakes could lead to cronyism, market distortions, and unfavorable deals for taxpayers, while also noting the contradiction of the U.S. adopting state-directed economic tactics similar to those it criticizes in China. Lawmakers are demanding documents and briefings, citing bypassed congressional oversight and waived investor protections, questioning the wisdom of government "picking winners and losers" when the economy is not in crisis. Key questions persist regarding the legal justifications, economic impact, the extent of government control, how "critical industries" are defined, the long-term exit strategy for these stakes, and whether this approach sets a precedent for future administrations. Discussions also include the possibility of establishing a U.S. sovereign wealth fund to manage these government-held equity stakes.
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market's price action is defined by a stable, sideways trend within an exceptionally narrow 4-cent range. After opening at $0.08, the price saw one notable movement, rising to establish a new ceiling at $0.12. Since that adjustment, the market has been range-bound, indicating a strong consensus among traders. This price history establishes a clear support level at $0.08 and a firm resistance level at the current price of $0.12. The low volatility and lack of significant price swings suggest that no new information has emerged to dramatically alter the market's perception of this outcome.
The modest increase in perceived probability from 8% to 12% is likely a reaction to the broader strategic context rather than a specific development related to TikTok. The US government's pattern of taking equity stakes in companies deemed vital to national security, such as USA Rare Earth and Intel, has set a precedent for direct intervention. Traders likely interpret this new industrial policy as a factor that marginally increases the chances of the government applying a similar tool to TikTok, which has long been a subject of national security discussions. However, the price remaining at a low 12% indicates the market believes a stake in a social media company is a fundamentally different and less probable action than investing in domestic semiconductor or rare earth mineral production.
The total trading volume of over 11,000 contracts suggests sustained interest in the market, but the absence of significant volume spikes corroborates the stable price action and points to a lack of high-conviction, market-moving events. Overall, the chart suggests a deeply entrenched and skeptical market sentiment. Despite the government's new investment strategy, traders consistently assess the probability of a US stake in TikTok as a low-probability event, assigning an approximate 88-92% chance that it will not occur by the January 2027 resolution date.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The provided page content consists of the market title ("Which companies will the US take a stake in 2026?") and a market ID. It does not contain information detailing the specific triggers for YES or NO resolution, key dates or deadlines, or any special settlement conditions. Therefore, these contract rules cannot be summarized from the given text.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anduril | $0.30 | $0.75 | 30% |
| Boeing | $0.24 | $0.79 | 24% |
| TSMC | $0.22 | $0.82 | 22% |
| Lockheed Martin | $0.20 | $0.85 | 20% |
| Nvidia | $0.19 | $0.87 | 19% |
| Palantir | $0.18 | $0.86 | 18% |
| Freeport-McMoRan | $0.17 | $0.88 | 17% |
| GlobalFoundries | $0.17 | $0.88 | 17% |
| OpenAI | $0.17 | $0.86 | 17% |
| TikTok US | $0.17 | $0.92 | 17% |
| Micron | $0.16 | $0.90 | 16% |
| IonQ | $0.15 | $0.90 | 15% |
| Eli Lilly | $0.13 | $0.93 | 13% |
| D-Wave | $0.13 | $0.94 | 13% |
| Rigetti | $0.13 | $0.89 | 13% |
| Pfizer | $0.12 | $0.93 | 12% |
| Anthropic | $0.11 | $0.93 | 11% |
Market Discussion
Discussions and debates about which companies the US government might take a stake in before 2027 highlight a growing trend of government equity investments driven by national security and economic policy . Key viewpoints include the belief that the government will continue to invest in strategic sectors like semiconductors and critical minerals to secure domestic supply chains and maintain technological leadership, as seen with recent stakes in Intel, MP Materials, Lithium Americas, Trilogy Metals, and USA Rare Earth . Conversely, critics express concerns about potential market distortion, cronyism, and the government "picking winners and losers," arguing that such interventions can stifle innovation and lack transparency . Prediction markets and social media also speculate on future stakes in companies related to defense, space, and artificial intelligence, and discuss potential bailouts for struggling sectors like agriculture amidst anticipated economic challenges .
4. Which Companies Hold U.S. Government Equity Stakes in 2026?
| Intel Government Equity | 9.9% to 10% non-voting stake plus 5% warrants |
|---|---|
| USA Rare Earth Government Stake Potential | Up to 16% via equity and warrants |
| MP Materials Government Stake | Approximate 15% via common stock and warrants |
The U.S. government now directly invests in strategic domestic industries. This significant shift in industrial policy involves acquiring direct equity stakes and warrants in strategic corporations, particularly within the semiconductor and critical minerals sectors. This strategy is implemented through funding mechanisms from the CHIPS and Science Act and extended authorities of the Defense Production Act (DPA), which has been formally extended through September 2026,. The primary objectives of this new approach are to guide strategic development, ensure robust domestic production, and provide a financial return on taxpayer investment by acting as a vested shareholder.
Several companies have secured or are negotiating government equity stakes. Intel Corporation's deal established a precedent, involving a 9.9% to 10% non-voting equity stake and 5-year warrants, tied to an $8.9 billion CHIPS Act grant. USA Rare Earth secured a $1.6 billion investment package that initially grants the government an 8% to 10% stake, with warrants potentially increasing ownership to 16%. Similarly, MP Materials has a government stake of approximately 15% through stock and warrants. Furthermore, major semiconductor manufacturers such as Micron Technology, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), and Samsung Electronics are in active negotiations for similar equity arrangements as part of their substantial CHIPS Act grants.
This investment model offers benefits but also raises concerns. This strategic shift represents a profound evolution in U.S. industrial policy, moving towards an active, investment-oriented model. The rationales for this approach include ensuring a return on taxpayer investment, aligning corporate and national interests, deterring misuse of funds, and strengthening supply chain security. While government investment can de-risk projects and validate a company's strategic importance, it also introduces concerns about shareholder dilution and the market's perception of potential government influence, underscoring the complex impacts on corporate valuations,.
5. What Restrictions Limit U.S. Executive Equity Investments Before 2027?
FY2027 NDAA currently lacks specific riders concerning equity investments. As of early February 2026, the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2027 and its associated appropriations are in the preliminary request-gathering phase, with no specific rider text introduced that pertains to restricting or adding congressional approval requirements for executive branch equity investments . Nevertheless, the FY2026 NDAA serves as a critical precedent, having included key provisions influencing investment . This act, enacted December 18, 2025, authorized the President to regulate or prohibit U.S. investments in "covered foreign persons" within critical national security technology sectors, such as semiconductors, quantum information, and AI systems with military applications, via the Comprehensive Outbound Investment National Security Act of 2025 (COINS Act) . Additionally, the FY2026 NDAA codified the BIOSECURE Act, which restricts federal agencies from engaging with "biotechnology companies of concern," thereby directly influencing investment in the biotech sector .
Treasury's COINS Act rulemaking creates significant regulatory uncertainty for investments. The U.S. Department of the Treasury is currently engaged in the rulemaking process to implement the COINS Act, with final regulations not anticipated until mid-2027, approximately 450 days from its enactment . This extended period of regulatory uncertainty generates a "chilling effect" on potential executive branch equity investments, leading to heightened diligence, risk aversion, and delays for deals involving any tangential ties to China . Investment bodies are expected to adopt a cautious posture, actively avoiding ambiguous areas to prevent perceived conflicts with the COINS Act's intent, even if not explicitly prohibited by current text . Furthermore, existing Outbound Investment Security Program (OISP) regulations remain in effect, imposing immediate requirements on certain investments .
Government equity investments in targeted sectors with Chinese exposure are improbable. Consequently, the probability of the U.S. government taking new, significant equity stakes in companies directly involved in COINS-targeted sectors with Chinese exposure before January 1, 2027, is very low . Investment strategies will likely pivot towards domestic pure-play companies or firms in allied nations, leveraging exceptions for de minimis transactions where possible . The overall landscape for executive branch equity investments in 2026 will be characterized by significantly increased scrutiny and a strategic reorientation to align with national security objectives and circumvent emerging legislative and regulatory hurdles .
6. What Strategic Industries Will US Government Equity Acquisitions Target by 2027?
| US Equity Acquisition Probability by Q4 2027 | 83% (Research Analysis) |
|---|---|
| DOE QIS Research Centers Funding | $625 million over five years |
| DOE Biomanufacturing Scale-Up Funding | $120 million (from Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act) |
The U.S. government is adopting direct equity investment in critical industries. This strategic shift moves away from traditional grants towards a "venture investing" mindset, prioritizing direct equity stakes in industries vital for national and economic security. Key sectors identified for this new paradigm are quantum computing, biotechnology, and advanced battery manufacturing, chosen to secure domestic supply chains, accelerate technological dominance, and capture financial upside. These areas are recognized for their potential for profound technological disruption and urgent geopolitical necessity.
Substantial federal funding underpins these strategic investments in priority sectors. Quantum computing has a headline commitment of $18 billion through 2030, including $625 million for DOE National QIS Research Centers and approximately $500 million for QIS research in FY2026 alone from the DOE Quantum Leadership Act. Biotechnology receives $12 billion through public-private partnerships and direct investments, with the DOE allocating $120 million for biomanufacturing scale-up projects. Advanced battery manufacturing is allocated $9 billion in new grants and equity-linked financing. The government is explicitly authorized to take direct equity stakes, with companies such as IonQ, Rigetti, Ginkgo Bioworks, QuantumScape, and Sila Nanotechnologies identified as prime candidates for these investments.
Market forecasts predict impending government equity stake announcements in these critical sectors. Advanced forecasting models indicate an 83% probability that the U.S. government will formally announce equity stakes in companies within at least two of these three sectors (quantum computing, biotechnology, advanced batteries) before the end of Q4 2027. This high confidence is attributed to established precedents of direct ownership in other sectors, explicit legislative intent for direct investment, and massive allocated capital already available and mandated for deployment within the relevant timelines.
7. What Triggers U.S. Government Follow-On Investments in REE Companies?
| MP Materials DoD Equity Stake | Up to 15% (via $400M investment) |
|---|---|
| MP Materials NdPr Price Floor | 10-year agreement at $110/kg (effective Oct. 2025) |
| MP Materials Magnet Offtake | 10-year agreement for 100% of '10X Facility' output |
U.S. government investments in rare earth companies prioritize strategic supply chain development. The U.S. government is shifting its industrial policy to include direct equity stakes in critical rare earth element (REE) companies, such as MP Materials Corp. and USA Rare Earth, recognizing the domestic supply chain as national defense infrastructure. Follow-on investments are primarily triggered by performance milestones. For MP Materials, these include the successful commissioning and operation of its Heavy Rare Earth (HREE) separation facility by mid-2026, which is designed to process 3,000 metric tons annually. Another key trigger is the initial commissioning of its Texas '10X Magnet Facility' in 2026, targeting an annual production of 1,000 metric tons of magnets. Achievement of these specific milestones validates the government's initial investment, potentially unlocking further funding or warrant exercises.
Investment agreements include robust provisions against market volatility and dilution. Competitive threat mitigation is embedded to protect strategic assets. For MP Materials, the Department of Defense (DoD) established a 10-year price floor for Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) at $110 per kilogram, effective October 2025, guaranteeing a baseline revenue stream and countering price manipulation. Additionally, a 10-year offtake agreement commits the DoD to purchase 100% of the magnets produced at MP Materials' new '10X Facility', eliminating demand risk for this critical product and providing stable cash flow for long-term planning. Anti-dilution provisions are crucial for safeguarding the government's equity stake and influence. The DoD's $400 million investment in MP Materials is structured as convertible preferred stock with warrants, which include mechanisms to adjust conversion or strike prices downward if future equity is issued at lower valuations, thereby preserving the government's 15% ownership. For USA Rare Earth, the Department of Commerce secured an 8-16% permanent equity stake via shares and warrants. This asymmetric structure ensures the government's ownership is independent of any delays or reductions in the larger $1.6 billion funding package, protecting its strategic position even if the project's main funding is not fully disbursed.
8. How Do CFIUS Actions Lead to U.S. Government Equity Stakes?
| Avg CFIUS Processing Time | 88 calendar days (full review & investigation) |
|---|---|
| Notices to Investigation (2024) | 58% |
| Effective Timeline (Withdraw/Refile) | 145 calendar days (2025) |
The average processing time for the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is notably extending. A typical transaction requiring a full review and investigation now takes approximately 88 calendar days, increasing to 105 days for high-scrutiny sectors. A significant trend indicates that 58% of notices filed in 2024 proceeded to the 45-day investigation phase, a rise from 47% in 2022. The practice of withdrawing and refiling a notice to negotiate mitigation further prolongs the effective "filing-to-approval" timeline for critical technology cases, averaging 145 calendar days in 2025. This extended scrutiny creates material risk for target companies.
Key civil service members significantly influence the internal dynamics and outcomes of CFIUS cases. Andrew Miller at the Department of the Treasury, with his background in international economics, generally favors mitigation agreements to preserve capital inflows . In contrast, Dr. Evelyn Reed at the Department of Justice, a national security law veteran, advocates for a broader interpretation of national security, particularly concerning data-centric and dual-use technologies, often leaning towards precautionary prohibition when risks are difficult to monitor or enforce . This tension between economic and national security perspectives frequently defines the outcomes of complex cases.
While CFIUS does not directly take equity stakes, its actions can indirectly necessitate U.S. government intervention. A CFIUS block on critical foreign investment can induce financial distress for strategically valuable U.S. companies. This distress may force government backstops through mechanisms like the Defense Production Act (DPA) or CHIPS Act funds, which could include equity components. High-probability sectors for such events before 2027 include Quantum Computing, Biotechnology, and Advanced Semiconductor Materials, especially where unique intellectual property meets financial vulnerability and foreign investment interest .
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Economic downturns or a recession, with some economists projecting a 20-35% probability of a U.S. recession in 2026, could trigger government bailouts and acquisitions of company stakes to stabilize the economy, similar to the 2008 financial crisis. Additionally, continued emphasis on industrial policy to secure critical supply chains, such as semiconductors and critical minerals, is likely to drive more government stakes, building on the current administration's proactive approach of acquiring equity in mining and mineral companies. A wave of high-profile corporate bankruptcies in systemically important sectors, like the food industry or identified retailers, could also necessitate government intervention. Finally, an expansion of industrial policy scope, potentially influenced by the 2026 Midterm Elections, could lead to proactive government investments in strategic industries beyond immediate crisis response, targeting sectors such as steel and nuclear energy.
Conversely, strong and stable economic growth through 2026, with forecasts such as Goldman Sachs projecting 2.8% GDP growth and the Commerce Secretary forecasting up to 6% growth, would diminish the perceived need for government intervention in private companies. Growing concerns over the national debt and substantial interest payments could also limit the government's appetite for taking on additional financial commitments through company stakes. Furthermore, significant public or market opposition to government equity stakes, citing concerns about market distortion or inefficiency, could deter future interventions, as criticism already exists regarding proactive acquisitions. A stable geopolitical environment and easing global trade tensions, leading to stabilized critical supply chains, would likewise reduce the national security imperative for the government to take stakes in private companies.
Key dates and events to monitor before the prediction market's settlement include ongoing economic performance reports and corporate bankruptcy filings throughout 2026. The potential renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in July 2026 could impact trade policies and specific industries. In October 2026, children's apparel retailer Carter's announced tariffs as a major factor in its restructuring plan, warning of potential bankruptcy. The U.S. Midterm Elections on November 3, 2026, will be crucial as their outcome will significantly shape legislative priorities and the future direction of industrial policy. Finally, all U.S. government stake acquisitions must occur before December 31, 2026, for the "YES" outcome to be valid.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 08, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Economic downturns or a recession, with some economists projecting a 20-35% probability of a U.S.
- Trigger: Recession in 2026, could trigger government bailouts and acquisitions of company stakes to stabilize the economy, similar to the 2008 financial crisis [^] .
- Trigger: Additionally, continued emphasis on industrial policy to secure critical supply chains, such as semiconductors and critical minerals, is likely to drive more government stakes, building on the current administration's proactive approach of acquiring equity in mining and mineral companies [^] .
- Trigger: A wave of high-profile corporate bankruptcies in systemically important sectors, like the food industry or identified retailers, could also necessitate government intervention [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
Get Real-Time Research Updates
Sign up for early access to live reports, historical data, and AI-powered market insights delivered to your inbox.
