Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect the SpaceX Starship 12th launch to occur before June, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- FAA mandates new stringent safety requirements for the Starship 12 license.
- Booster 19 and Ship 39 still require static fire testing completion.
- Starship Flight 12, with V3 engines, targets an early March 2026 launch.
- Expedited regulatory approvals are crucial for achieving the launch timeline.
- Demonstrated reusability and tower catch capability would build confidence.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before April | 57% | 57% | Continued flight testing and a successful regulatory review could facilitate a March launch. |
| Before March | 1% | 0% | Regulatory approvals and extensive testing schedules make a February launch improbable. |
| Before May | 86% | 0.9% | Ongoing rapid hardware iteration and regulatory progress often enable a launch by April. |
| Before June | 92% | 90.5% | Ample time for vehicle preparation, comprehensive testing, and FAA approvals supports a May launch. |
Current Context
SpaceX's 12th Starship launch, featuring the upgraded V3 vehicle, is anticipated in early March 2026. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk confirmed on January 26-27, 2026, via X, that the test flight, designated Starship Flight 12, was targeted for approximately six weeks from that date, establishing the early March window,,,. This mission will mark the inaugural launch of the Starship V3 iteration, which includes new Raptor V3 engines projected to offer nearly double the thrust of the original Raptor 1 engines, be four times more cost-effective, and significantly lighter. The flight will utilize Booster 19 and Ship 39, with preparations at Starbase involving ongoing vehicle integration and successful checks of the Detonation Suppression System (DSS). The FCC had previously approved a broader flight test window for Flight 12 from January 23, 2026, to June 28, 2026.
Key mission objectives include advancing orbital refueling capabilities and preparations for Mars missions. The flight aims to repeat the profile of previous tests, with the ship nearly reaching orbit, and a primary focus on demonstrating the ability to return and reuse both Starship and Super Heavy. This builds upon progress from Flight 11, which saw mid-air booster catches and soft ship landings, and Flight 10, which resolved many V2 issues and advanced refueling objectives,,. However, regulatory scrutiny is increasing, with the FAA issuing a safety alert on February 2, 2026, urging airlines to exercise "extreme caution" due to potential disruptions and safety risks from rising rocket launches, including Starship tests. Experts like Steve Jangelis, an aviation safety chair, have voiced concerns about the "high potential for debris striking an aircraft" and the adequacy of existing mishap response processes. Beyond the immediate launch, Elon Musk has stated that 2026 is the year SpaceX intends to initiate actual orbital refilling operations using Starship V3, although experts like Lluc Palerm consider ambitious visions for orbital data centers "optimistic, premature, and possibly naïve" due to safety and sustainability concerns.
Public discussion highlights concerns about Starship's reliability and potential launch delays given its history of "rapid unscheduled disassembly" in earlier tests. There is significant interest in whether V3 will demonstrate enhanced reliability and achieve full reusability, which is a critical step for its operational future and a predictable business model that could influence a potential SpaceX IPO in 2026,. Additionally, questions persist regarding the environmental impact and potential disruptions to air traffic from Starship launches, as emphasized by the FAA's recent warning. People are also curious about how quickly Starship can achieve necessary milestones, particularly orbital refueling, to enable crewed missions to the Moon, such as Artemis 3 which is now likely delayed to 2026, and eventually Mars, alongside SpaceX's aggressive manufacturing and launch cadence goals.
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market exhibits a long-term downward trend, starting at a 79.0% probability and currently trading at 59.0%, indicating a sustained decrease in confidence over time for a launch before May 31, 2026. However, the price action is characterized by high volatility driven by specific news events. The market saw significant declines in mid-January, dropping from 61.0% to as low as 32.0%, attributed to social media analysis and a lack of positive updates. This bearish sentiment was sharply reversed in late January and early February by direct catalysts. An announcement from Elon Musk on January 25-27 targeting a launch in "6 weeks" triggered a series of spikes, most notably a 17.0 percentage point jump on February 3, pushing the price from 46.0% to 63.0%. A subsequent sharp drop of 17.0 percentage points on February 4 suggests either profit-taking or a rapid re-evaluation by the market, despite no clear negative news catalyst.
The price chart suggests key technical levels and reflects a reactive market sentiment. The market has established a broad trading range between a low of 20.0% and a high of 83.0%. More recently, the 50.0% level has acted as a psychological support point, as seen during the January 18 drop. The area between 63.0% and 74.0% has served as recent resistance, where bullish momentum has stalled. The total traded volume of over 109,000 contracts indicates significant liquidity and active participation. While specific volume data for each price swing is not provided, such sharp movements are typically accompanied by high volume, signaling strong conviction behind the reactions to news. The current price of 59.0% implies the market is cautiously optimistic, assigning a better-than-even chance of a launch within the market's timeframe, but it remains highly skeptical compared to initial expectations and is poised to react strongly to any new official updates or perceived delays.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Before April
📉 February 04, 2026: 17.0pp drop
Price decreased from 74.0% to 57.0%
What happened: A 17.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market for "SpaceX Starship 12th launch? Outcome: Before April" on February 4, 2026, suggests increased doubt about an early launch. However, research into social media activity and traditional news outlets around this date reveals no direct announcements or influential posts specifically delaying SpaceX's Starship Flight 12 beyond March. Elon Musk's post on X on January 26, 2026, indicated Starship was "just six weeks away from launch," pointing to an early March 2026 timeframe. While news on February 3-4, 2026, reported a delay for NASA's Artemis II mission due to a hydrogen leak, this pertained to a different rocket (SLS) and mission, not directly impacting SpaceX's Starship schedule. The FAA's environmental approval for future Starship launches in Florida, also reported on February 4, was a positive development and not a cause for delay for a Texas-based launch. Therefore, based on the available information, no clear primary driver in the form of a specific social media post or news event directly causing a delay for the Starship 12th launch on February 4, 2026, could be identified. Social media appears to be irrelevant as a primary driver for this specific price movement.
📈 February 03, 2026: 17.0pp spike
Price increased from 46.0% to 63.0%
What happened: The 17.0 percentage point spike in the "SpaceX Starship 12th launch? Before April" prediction market on February 3, 2026, was primarily driven by Elon Musk's earlier social media announcement. On January 27, 2026, Musk posted on X (formerly Twitter) stating that Starship's 12th test flight with the upgraded V3 vehicle was targeted for "approximately six weeks from now, around early March 2026.". This directly implied a launch before April, and news reports, including one published on February 3, 2026, continued to highlight this timeline. This social media activity led the initial information, with subsequent news reinforcing the "early March" launch window, coinciding with the price movement. Social media was the primary driver.
📉 January 19, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 41.0% to 32.0%
What happened: The 9.0 percentage point drop in the "SpaceX Starship 12th launch? Before April" prediction market on January 19, 2026, was primarily driven by a market re-evaluation of the launch timeline, influenced by previously known delays and a lack of immediate positive updates. A structural anomaly on a Starship V3 booster in late November 2025 had already set back plans for an early January 2026 launch. By January 3, 2026, discussions on social media platforms like Reddit indicated concerns about potential regulatory approvals, with some mentioning an "FCC permit pointing to April" for Flight 12, suggesting a shift in the perceived timeline. This accumulating skepticism, rather than a single new announcement or social media post on January 19th, likely led to the decreased probability of a launch before April as the deadline approached without firm readiness.
Outcome: Before March
📉 January 26, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 13.0% to 2.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 11.0 percentage point drop in the "SpaceX Starship 12th launch? Before March" prediction market on January 26, 2026, was a social media post from Elon Musk. On Sunday, January 25, 2026, Elon Musk posted on X (formerly Twitter), stating, "Starship launch in 6 weeks". This statement, originating from SpaceX's CEO, directly indicated a launch timeframe pushing into mid-March (approximately March 9-12), making a launch "Before March" highly improbable. This social media activity by a key figure directly preceded and coincided with the market movement, making it the primary driver.
📉 January 18, 2026: 14.0pp drop
Price decreased from 21.0% to 7.0%
What happened: The 14.0 percentage point drop in the "SpaceX Starship 12th launch?" prediction market for the "Before March" outcome on January 18, 2026, was primarily driven by independent social media analysis indicating a declining probability of a first-quarter launch. A YouTube video published on January 13, 2026, by a reputable space observer, stated that the chances of a Q1 2026 launch were "declining" due to ongoing testing requirements for Ship 39 and Booster 19, and the need to process data from previous booster tests. This analysis, which appeared to lead the price move, directly countered earlier tentative expectations for a January 2026 launch, as mentioned by SpaceX's Vice President of Launch, Kiko Dontchev, at a recent Economist Space Economy Summit. Elon Musk's subsequent post on X (Twitter) around January 25-27, 2026, targeting the launch for "early March 2026" or "mid-March 2026," further confirmed a timeline outside of a "Before March" window, but lagged the observed market movement. Social media was the primary driver due to a well-timed, credible analysis shifting expectations for the launch schedule.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided page content, there is insufficient information to summarize the contract rules. The content only includes the market title "SpaceX Starship 12th launch? Odds & Predictions" and navigation links, without any details regarding YES/NO triggers, key dates, or special settlement conditions.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before June | $0.92 | $0.09 | 92% |
| Before May | $0.86 | $0.16 | 86% |
| Before April | $0.57 | $0.46 | 57% |
| Before March | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Discussions surrounding SpaceX's anticipated 12th Starship launch (IFT-12) primarily revolve around the debut of the updated V3 vehicle, which is expected to bring significant improvements in reliability and capability essential for lunar missions and Starlink deployment . There's considerable debate regarding SpaceX's ambitious launch timelines, with some skepticism stemming from past delays and recent hardware setbacks, particularly concerning the challenging "chopsticks" catch of the Super Heavy booster and the Starship's controlled landing . Furthermore, environmental concerns and airspace safety issues related to an increased launch cadence are ongoing points of discussion and regulatory oversight.
5. What FAA Mandates Delay the Starship 12 Launch Timeline?
| Debris Risk Modeling | Overhauled probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies required |
|---|---|
| FTS Redundancy | Full system redundancy and independent verification mandated |
| Airspace Management | Dynamic, real-time protocols with ATC and DoD required |
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has mandated stringent new safety requirements for SpaceX’s Starship 12 launch license. These measures are a direct consequence of recent Starship launch failures and the issuance of FAA Safety Alert for Operators (SAFO) 26001 in January 2026. Addressing escalating risks of space launch debris to the National Airspace System (NAS), the FAA demands enhanced debris risk and dispersion modeling, upgrades to the Flight Termination System (FTS), and revised air traffic integration with emergency protocols. This proactive and prescriptive approach reflects the FAA's shift towards stricter oversight, following previous enforcement actions against SpaceX.
Technical demands include risk assessment overhauls and FTS enhancements for Starship 12. Specifically, SpaceX must overhaul probabilistic risk assessment methodologies to model expanded failure scenarios and establish lower acceptable casualty thresholds. The Flight Termination System requires fully independent, redundant command pathways with enhanced telemetry validation, plus independent verification and validation (IV&V) by an FAA-approved third-party entity. Additionally, SpaceX is required to develop dynamic, real-time airspace management protocols in coordination with Air Traffic Control (ATC) and the Department of Defense, moving beyond static airspace closures. These comprehensive mandates are anticipated to significantly impact the Starship 12 launch timeline, introducing potential delays and requiring substantial reallocation of SpaceX’s engineering resources.
6. What's the Current Status of Starship Testing and Raptor V3 Performance?
| Booster 19 Test Status | Partial cryogenic proof test completed; no static fire yet |
|---|---|
| Ship 39 Test Status | No public records of cryogenic proof or static fire tests |
| Raptor V3 Demonstrated Thrust | 280 tf (approx. 93.3% of 300 tf design goal) |
Booster 19 and Ship 39 have not yet completed static fire testing. Booster 19 (B19) successfully underwent a partial cryogenic proof test in early February 2026 without any reported anomalies but has not yet conducted static fire tests. Conversely, Ship 39 (S39) has no public records of significant testing, including cryogenic proof or static fire tests, suggesting it is at an earlier stage of development. This current testing status indicates that the B19/S39 pair is not yet ready for an orbital launch, with further ground testing anticipated for Booster 19.
Raptor V3 engines show strong performance but a slight thrust gap. The Raptor V3 engine has demonstrated a maximum sea-level thrust of 280 tonne-force (tf), which is approximately 93.3% of its 300 tf design goal, based on August 2024 data. This 20 tf performance gap remains a key area for development, though the V3 engine has achieved a high thrust-to-weight ratio of 183.6 and a significant mass reduction to 1525 kg from previous versions. Notably, there are no publicly detailed anomaly reports specifically citing issues with Booster 19, Ship 39, or the Raptor V3 engines, although the FAA issued a broader advisory in early 2026 regarding "catastrophic failures" in commercial space launches.
7. Is Starship's Five-Month Launch Pause a Delay or Strategic Acceleration?
| Flight 10 to 11 Turnaround | 48 days (1 month, 18 days) |
|---|---|
| Flight 11 to 12 Projected Turnaround | ~5 months (~March 2026) |
| Flight 9 to 10 Turnaround | ~2 months (~August 2025) |
The projected interval for Flight 11 to Flight 12 is notably extended. The SpaceX Starship program anticipates a projected ~5-month interval between Flight 11 (October 2025) and Flight 12 (March 2026). This contrasts sharply with the program's most rapid operational turnaround of just 48 days, achieved between Flight 10 and Flight 11, which serves as a benchmark for previous generation hardware and pad configurations. The period prior to Flight 10 saw an approximate 2-month delay due to anomaly recovery from a vehicle loss and ground system issues.
This extended pause is a deliberate strategic decision for comprehensive upgrades. The ~5-month period for Flight 12 is not an unplanned delay but a conscious choice to implement fundamental upgrades to both the launch infrastructure and the vehicle itself. Flight 11 marked the final use of the second-generation Starship, first-generation Super Heavy, and the initial Pad 1 configuration, signaling a shift to next-generation hardware and an overhaul of the Stage Zero launch mount. This strategic investment aims to construct a more robust, capable system, supporting enhancements such as advanced engine variants, structural improvements, and a more durable thermal protection system. While this represents a short-term operational deceleration, it is viewed as a programmatic acceleration towards the Starship program's ultimate goals of higher launch cadence and full reusability. The five-month timeline dedicated to building and integrating new orbital launch pad capabilities and a next-generation rocket is considered exceptionally fast by aerospace industry standards, with the true success measured by significantly improved turnaround times demonstrated by flights subsequent to Flight 12.
8. Will Airline Associations Formally Object to Starship Flight 12 TFR?
| Expected Airspace Closure Duration | 40 minutes to 2 hours |
|---|---|
| Affected Commercial Flights per Launch | 400-600 flights |
| Annual Starship Launches (Boca Chica) | Up to 25 launches |
Major airline associations have not formally objected to the Starship Flight 12 TFR. Public records indicate a notable absence of specific, formal objections from major airline associations, such as Airlines for America (A4A), regarding the anticipated Temporary Flight Restriction (TFR) for Starship Flight 12. This aligns with established industry practice, where direct opposition to single launch TFRs is rare, as the FAA considers TFRs to be routine safety measures. While individual launch objections are uncommon, the FAA did issue a safety alert to airlines in January 2026 concerning risks from rocket debris, highlighting broader safety concerns that could potentially be leveraged if future incidents occur. Airline associations primarily voice objections during longer-term environmental and regulatory approval processes rather than for individual launches.
Broader airline industry concerns are dismissed in favor of space sector growth. During the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) process, airline groups raised significant issues regarding projected airspace closures lasting 40 minutes to two hours per launch, impacting 400 to 600 commercial flights, and concerns about sonic boom effects. However, the FAA dismissed these concerns, determining they were not significant enough to alter approval for expanded Starship operations, thereby prioritizing the growth of the U.S. commercial space launch sector. This regulatory posture demonstrates that operational disruption is currently viewed as an acceptable trade-off. Consequently, the probability of a delay for Starship Flight 12 caused directly by airline association objections or lobbying is extremely low. The core conflict between the aviation and space industries is a strategic, long-term policy issue being addressed at a systemic level, rather than at the level of individual launch TFRs. The most probable causes for delay for Flight 12, which is expected to debut the 'Version 3' Starship, remain technical readiness and weather conditions at Boca Chica.
9. What is Starship Flight 12's Current Launch Readiness and Projected Timeline?
| Full-Stack Integration Status | In final stages of preparation |
|---|---|
| Booster 19 Design Standard | Version 3 (V3) |
| Median WDR-to-Launch Gap | 15 days (Based on Flights 9, 10, 11 data) |
Starship Flight 12, featuring Ship 39 and the inaugural Version 3 Booster 19, is nearing full-stack integration completion. While integration is advanced, the critical Wet Dress Rehearsal (WDR) and formal Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) launch license issuance remain pending. Booster 19 represents a significant upgrade, incorporating a taller structure, enlarged grid fins, and a lighter hot-staging ring, designed to increase payload capacity beyond 100 tonnes to Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Its timely progress is vital following the Booster 18 ground failure in late 2025.
A successful Wet Dress Rehearsal typically precedes launch by approximately two weeks. The full-stack WDR, a comprehensive launch simulation, has not yet occurred and is contingent upon successful integration and static fire testing. Historically, the median time gap between a successful WDR and launch for the last three Starship flights (9, 10, 11) has been 15 days. This benchmark suggests that once the WDR is completed, a launch could occur within approximately two to three weeks, with a projected launch window opening in early to mid-March 2026, assuming a WDR in mid-to-late February 2026.
The FAA launch license remains a critical final regulatory step for launch. Issuance of this license is dependent on the completion of technical milestones, the formal closure of the Booster 18 mishap investigation, and compliance with environmental and airspace regulations. This approval is typically granted days or hours before launch, resolving regulatory uncertainty and paving the way for the final countdown.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The prediction market for Starship's 12th launch by June 1, 2026, will be driven by several key developments. Bullish catalysts include a successful launch of Starship Flight 12, featuring the new Version 3 and Raptor V3 engines, targeted for early March 2026, following rapid integration and testing in February. Expedited regulatory approvals for Flight 12 and subsequent launches, along with demonstrated reusability, particularly the launch tower catch capability, would significantly increase confidence in achieving the market's condition. Conversely, bearish catalysts could push the 'NO' probability higher. These include significant delays to Flight 12 beyond early March 2026, potentially caused by technical issues or regulatory hurdles, such as the previously scrapped Booster 18 due to a testing anomaly. A failure of Flight 12 would trigger lengthy investigations and program delays. Increased regulatory scrutiny following FAA safety alerts or production bottlenecks and infrastructure damage at Starbase could also impede the necessary launch cadence before the June 1, 2026 settlement date.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: June 07, 2026
- Closes: June 01, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The prediction market for Starship's 12th launch by June 1, 2026, will be driven by several key developments [^] .
- Trigger: Bullish catalysts include a successful launch of Starship Flight 12, featuring the new Version 3 and Raptor V3 engines, targeted for early March 2026, following rapid integration and testing in February [^] .
- Trigger: Expedited regulatory approvals for Flight 12 and subsequent launches, along with demonstrated reusability, particularly the launch tower catch capability, would significantly increase confidence in achieving the market's condition [^] .
- Trigger: Conversely, bearish catalysts could push the 'NO' probability higher [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 50 markets in this series
Outcomes: 18 resolved YES, 32 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-12-26JAN31: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
- KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-12-25DEC31: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
- KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-11-25SEP30: NO (Oct 01, 2025)
- KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-11-25OCT31: YES (Nov 01, 2025)
- KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-11-25OCT15: YES (Oct 16, 2025)
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