How many launches will SpaceX have in April?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect SpaceX to have above 10 launches in April 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- SpaceX has five publicly scheduled launches for April 2026.
- Florida launch pads theoretically support 32 SpaceX launches in April.
- Falcon 9 boosters demonstrate rapid reusability and turnaround capability.
- Starship operations will not negatively impact Falcon 9 launches in April.
- Exceeding five scheduled missions is feasible given high capacity.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 14 | 4.0% | 3.0% | Achieving over 14 launches requires numerous unlisted missions, which are not currently indicated. |
| Above 13 | 13.0% | 10.2% | Achieving over 13 launches requires numerous unlisted missions, which are not currently indicated. |
| Above 15 | 4.0% | 2.9% | Achieving over 15 launches requires numerous unlisted missions, which are not currently indicated. |
| Above 12 | 62.0% | 54.0% | SpaceX has 5 launches scheduled, but high capacity and reusability allow for more. |
| Above 10 | 90.0% | 88.0% | SpaceX has 5 launches scheduled, but high capacity and reusability allow for more. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
The price action for this market can be characterized as a prolonged sideways consolidation, reflecting a stable and high-conviction consensus. Opening at 92.0% and currently trading at 90.0%, the market has shown little net change over its history. However, it has operated within a distinct range, with the low of 76.0% acting as a potential support level and the high of 99.0% serving as firm resistance. The current 90.0% level appears to be a key area of price agreement where recent trading activity has been centered.
With a total volume of 8,849 contracts, the market shows healthy engagement. Early trading, such as the 100-contract volume on April 8th that coincided with a drop to 90.0%, suggests that initial significant trades were instrumental in setting the current price range. In the absence of specific external news catalysts, price fluctuations within the established range are likely attributable to internal market dynamics and trader positioning. Overall, the chart indicates a strong and unwavering market sentiment, with the price consistently holding at high probability levels. This reflects a deep-seated belief among participants that the specified number of launches is a highly likely outcome.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 13
📉 April 07, 2026: 23.0pp drop
Price decreased from 33.0% to 10.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📉 April 06, 2026: 12.0pp drop
Price decreased from 45.0% to 33.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📉 April 04, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 64.0% to 53.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📉 April 03, 2026: 17.0pp drop
Price decreased from 79.0% to 62.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Above 14
📉 April 05, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 23.0% to 12.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if SpaceX conducts more than 12 launches in April 2026, and "No" if 12 or fewer launches occur. Trading closes on May 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT, with projected payout an hour later. Outcomes are verified using data from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and SpaceX, and if FAA data is delayed, the market will expire once the data updates according to platform rules.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 10 | $0.90 | $0.11 | 90% |
| Above 12 | $0.62 | $0.39 | 62% |
| Above 13 | $0.13 | $0.90 | 13% |
| Above 14 | $0.04 | $0.98 | 4% |
| Above 15 | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Above 16 | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Above 18 | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
Market Discussion
The market largely anticipates SpaceX will have more than 10 launches in April (90% chance), with moderate confidence for exceeding 12 (62%), but low expectations for more than 13. Traders supporting a higher count believe that official launch schedules are often updated closer to the date with additional missions. Conversely, arguments for fewer launches cite current low scheduled numbers, though one comment ambiguously mentions recent launch delays.
5. What is SpaceX's Theoretical Launch Capacity in April 2026?
| Record Pad Turnaround Time (Florida) | 45 hours (1.875 days) [^] |
|---|---|
| Theoretical Launches per Florida Pad | 16 per pad (April 2026, calculated from 45-hour turnaround [^]) |
| Combined Florida Pad Capacity | 32 launches (April 2026, calculated from 45-hour turnaround [^]) |
SpaceX's primary Florida pads project 32 launches for April 2026. Space Launch Complex 40 (SLC-40) and Launch Complex 39A (LC-39A), both located in Florida, have a combined maximum theoretical launch capacity of 32 missions projected for April 2026. This projection relies on a demonstrated record turnaround time of 45 hours, equivalent to 1.875 days, which was achieved at a Cape Canaveral pad in Q1 2026 [^]. Based on this rapid turnaround, each of these two pads could theoretically facilitate up to 16 launches during the 30-day period of April 2026.
This capacity estimate excludes maintenance and SLC-4E data. The theoretical maximum calculation assumes no maintenance downtime and is specific to the Florida launch pads. Information regarding specific demonstrated average turnaround times for Space Launch Complex 4 East (SLC-4E) in California for Q1 2026 was not available in the research, precluding the calculation of its individual theoretical maximum launch capacity. Furthermore, no publicly announced maintenance schedules for April 2026 for any of the primary pads (SLC-40, LC-39A, or SLC-4E) were identified in the sources.
6. What is SpaceX's Launch Schedule for April 2026?
| Total Launches | 5 (April 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Starlink Missions | 3 (April 2026) [^] |
| Commercial & Government Missions | 2 (April 2026) [^] |
SpaceX plans five missions across three categories for April 2026. The publicly filed launch manifest for April 2026 indicates a total of five missions, consisting of three Starlink deployments, one Commercial mission, and one Government launch [^]. This highlights a busy schedule for the month, catering to various customer types.
Three Starlink missions are specifically scheduled with precise dates. Starlink Group 17-21 is slated for April 1, 2026 [^], followed by Starlink Group 17-35 on April 15, 2026 [^]. The third Starlink mission, Group 10-58, is scheduled for April 29, 2026 [^]. Additionally, the Commercial Transporter-13 mission and the Government USSF-124 mission are both broadly planned for April 2026 [^].
Historical launch slip-rate data is unavailable from current research. The provided web research does not contain specific data or statistics regarding the historical 12-month schedule slip-rate for Commercial, Government, and Starlink customer categories. Therefore, information on launch delays or schedule adherence rates for these customer types cannot be provided based on the available sources.
7. What is the record reusability of a SpaceX Falcon 9 booster?
| Record Booster Flights | 34 (as of March 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Total Active Booster Fleet | Not specified in research [^] |
| Monthly Second Stage Production | Not specified in research [^] |
SpaceX's Falcon 9 fleet demonstrates remarkable reusability and rapid turnaround capabilities. By March 30, 2026, the lead booster achieved a record 34 flights during a Starlink delivery mission [^]. This milestone, following its 33rd trip to space, underscores the advanced reusability inherent in the technology [^]. However, the available research does not specify the exact total size of the active Falcon 9 first-stage booster fleet.
Second-stage production rates at Hawthorne remain undisclosed by current research findings. The provided information does not detail the current monthly production rate of new second stages at SpaceX's Hawthorne factory.
8. Will Starship operations impact Falcon 9 launches in Q1 2026?
| Falcon 9 Q1 2026 Cadence | High tempo, "busy week of missions" March [^] |
|---|---|
| Starlink Missions Target | April 2026 for Group 17-35 [^] and Group 10-58 [^] |
| Starship Q1 2026 Schedule & Impact | No specific details or impact assessment found [^] |
Falcon 9 operations anticipate a high launch tempo in early 2026. Throughout the first quarter of 2026, Falcon 9 missions are projected to maintain a high operational cadence, with March 2026 specifically highlighted for a "busy week of missions" predominantly featuring Falcon 9 launches [^]. This elevated pace is expected to continue into the second quarter, as indicated by planned Falcon 9 Block 5 missions such as Starlink Group 17-35 [^] and Starlink Group 10-58 [^], which are currently targeting April 2026 according to spaceflight launch lists [^].
Starship operations currently show no evidence of diverting resources in Q1 2026. Despite the consistently active Falcon 9 schedule, research indicates a lack of specific details concerning Starship's launch schedule for Q1 2026 within the available sources [^]. Consequently, the provided research does not contain explicit information or data points to suggest that Starship operations would divert critical range assets, FAA resources, or ground support personnel from the Falcon launch program, or create a bottleneck during that specific quarter [^].
9. What is the Probability of Losing April Launch Days Due to Weather?
| Primary launch constraint | Weather at Cape Canaveral [^] |
|---|---|
| Key weather criteria examples | Wind speed, lightning potential, cloud proximity [^] |
| April weather trend (Cape Canaveral) | Rising temperatures, decreasing chance of clouds/rain [^] |
It is not possible to statistically determine the probability of losing 5 or more launch days in April. The available research does not contain specific historical data on lost launch days due to weather or range conflicts for both Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg over the last five years. Information is predominantly focused on Cape Canaveral, lacking specific historical data for Vandenberg Space Force Base, and does not provide detailed records of lost launch days across either range, particularly regarding range conflicts [^].
Weather is a significant factor in launch scheduling at Cape Canaveral. The 45th Weather Squadron provides critical forecasts and support for operations [^]. Extensive launch commit criteria are in place to ensure mission safety, covering parameters such as wind speed, wind shear, lightning potential, cloud proximity (specifically cumulus clouds), and temperature [^]. Various weather issues are common causes for delays or scrubs, with specific instances of launches being halted due to conditions like wind shear [^], among other meteorological challenges [^].
While general April weather patterns for Cape Canaveral are understood, specific data is insufficient. This includes rapidly rising daily high temperatures and a gradual decrease in the chance of cloudy conditions and rain throughout the month [^]. However, despite this general meteorological information, the absence of specific historical data on lost launch days or probabilities for range conflicts prevents a direct statistical probability calculation for the requested scenario.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 07, 2026
- Closes: May 01, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 5 resolved YES, 15 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MARB-18: NO (Apr 01, 2026)
- KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MARB-16: NO (Apr 01, 2026)
- KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MARB-15: NO (Apr 01, 2026)
- KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MARB-14: YES (Apr 01, 2026)
- KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MARB-13: YES (Apr 01, 2026)
Get Real-Time Research Updates
Sign up for early access to live reports, historical data, and AI-powered market insights delivered to your inbox.
