When will SpaceX officially announce an IPO?
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing: an IPO announcement before Jul 1, 2026, at 90.2% model vs 55.5% market. This indicates the market underestimates the likelihood of an earlier announcement.
1. Executive Verdict
- Starlink's strong financial performance drives readiness for a public offering.
- SpaceX lacks confirmed S-1 filing, law firm, or accounting firm.
- SEC will intensely scrutinize xAI's development costs and capitalization.
- SpaceX has no official lead underwriter, but candidates are emerging.
- Reports suggest mid-June 2026 as a potential IPO target date.
- An official announcement from SpaceX or Musk is the direct catalyst.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 58.0% | 65.0% | Steady Starlink revenue growth and successful Starship testing may trigger an IPO by July 2026. |
| Before May 1, 2026 | 23.0% | 20.5% | Starlink's path to consistent profitability could lead to an IPO announcement by May 2026. |
| Before Apr 1, 2026 | 7.0% | 1.9% | Early 2026 is an improbable timeframe for an IPO given current Starship development and market considerations. |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | 37.0% | 34.5% | An IPO by June 2026 could follow significant Starship operational milestones and market readiness. |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 66.0% | 70.0% | Favorable equity market conditions and increased Starlink subscriber base could enable an IPO by August 2026. |
Current Context
SpaceX's highly anticipated IPO is currently targeting a mid-to-late 2026 timeframe. Reports suggest a potential listing in June 2026, aiming to raise $50 billion at a staggering $1.5 trillion valuation, which would make it the largest IPO in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's 2019 listing [^]. A significant development in February 2026 was SpaceX's formal acquisition of Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company, xAI, in an all-stock deal that valued the combined private entity at approximately $1.25 trillion [^]. Analysts view this as a strategic move to consolidate high-growth tech assets under one balance sheet, potentially simplifying investor disclosures for the upcoming IPO, despite xAI reportedly burning almost $8 billion in cash across the first nine months of 2025 [^]. Prior to the merger, Humain, Saudi Arabia's state-owned AI company, invested $3 billion in xAI, with this stake converting into SpaceX shares, positioning Humain as a major shareholder [^]. The market is abuzz with immense hype, with discussions on platforms like Investment Week and The Motley Fool suggesting the IPO will be a "structural turning point" for the space economy [^].
Key financial data and expert opinions highlight the IPO's scale and potential impact. While mid-to-late 2026 is the general consensus for the official IPO date, a specific target in June 2026 is frequently cited, with speculation that it might coincide with a rare planetary alignment or Elon Musk's birthday [^]. The target IPO valuation of $1.5 trillion and the plan to raise $50 billion are central figures, contrasting with previous private market valuations that reached $800 billion in December 2025 [^]. SpaceX's predicted revenue is expected to exceed $15 billion for 2025, with an estimated $8 billion in profit, potentially growing to $24 billion by 2026 [^]. Data on Starlink's subscriber growth and profitability is crucial, as it is considered the biggest revenue generator for SpaceX and a primary driver of its valuation [^]. AI analyses attempt to forecast potential stock prices ranging from $400 to $1,200 per share [^]. Analysts like Tim Farrar question the $1.5 trillion valuation based on traditional metrics, suggesting it's largely driven by "belief in Elon Musk" [^], while Antoine Grenier of Analysys Mason believes Starlink's established business model makes it "perfect timing for an IPO," also noting SpaceX's need for more capital [^]. Ali Javaheri from PitchBook anticipates SpaceX becoming the "anchor public company" in the space sector, influencing the re-rating of other space companies and easing future IPOs in the industry [^].
Upcoming milestones and common investor concerns surround the valuation, structure, and transparency. The most significant upcoming event is the anticipated IPO itself, with June 2026 being a frequently mentioned target [^]. Investors are keenly awaiting a formal SEC filing from SpaceX, which would provide definitive confirmation of the IPO's timing and terms [^]. Ongoing critical NASA deadlines for Starship development are a factor influencing the company's trajectory and potential for public listing [^]. The strategic integration of xAI's AI capabilities with SpaceX's satellite and launch infrastructure, including visions of "space-based AI data centers," is also a key area of focus [^]. A primary concern for many is how a $1.5 trillion valuation is justified, especially considering the massive capital expenditures for projects like Starship and Mars colonization, and the recent cash burn from xAI [^]. There is ongoing discussion about whether Starlink might be spun off into a separate IPO, though current indications suggest it will be included in the main IPO [^]. Investors are debating whether SpaceX's monumental IPO will boost the entire space sector or divert investment away from smaller, publicly traded space companies [^]. Many retail investors are seeking ways to gain exposure to SpaceX shares before the IPO, exploring options such as investment trusts, secondary markets (for accredited investors), and CFDs on proxy stocks [^]. Finally, questions are being raised about how a publicly traded SpaceX will balance Elon Musk's ambitious, long-term, capital-intensive goals with the pressure to meet short-term profitability targets expected by public shareholders, alongside concerns about financial transparency given the inherent secrecy of a private company and the recent xAI merger [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has shown a long-term upward trend, with the implied probability of a SpaceX IPO announcement rising from an initial 45.0% to its current 58.0%. However, this trend has been characterized by extreme volatility, with the price trading in a wide range between 10.0% and 88.0%. The chart is marked by several significant, rapid price swings in early 2026, including a 19.0 percentage point spike and a 41.0 percentage point drop, indicating a market that is highly reactive to new information and shifting sentiment.
A key driver of recent price action was the news of SpaceX's merger with xAI. The 10.0 percentage point spike on February 13, 2026, is directly attributed to this development, which traders likely interpreted as a strategic move to streamline the company's structure ahead of a public offering. This positive reaction followed a dramatic 41.0 percentage point drop on the preceding day, February 12, for which a specific catalyst is not provided in the context, though it highlights the market's underlying uncertainty. Other significant price swings in late January and early February further underscore the market's sensitivity, though their specific drivers are not detailed.
The total traded volume of over 57,000 contracts suggests significant engagement and conviction from market participants. The price action indicates a key psychological level around the 50.0% mark, with the market showing a historical resistance ceiling near 88.0% and support as low as 10.0%. Overall, the market sentiment appears cautiously optimistic, reflected by the current 58.0% price and the general upward trend. Yet, the recent sharp fluctuations reveal that this optimism is fragile and highly dependent on ongoing developments related to the company's valuation, corporate structure, and official IPO timeline.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Before May 1, 2026
📈 February 19, 2026: 11.0pp spike
Price increased from 12.0% to 23.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 11.0 percentage point spike in the "Before May 1, 2026" outcome for SpaceX's IPO prediction market on February 19, 2026, was likely intensified news coverage surrounding the recent acquisition of xAI by SpaceX [^]. Articles published on February 18 and 19, 2026, widely reported on SpaceX formally acquiring Elon Musk's AI company, xAI, in early February, with a significant $3 billion investment in xAI's Series E round by HUMAIN announced on February 18, 2026, just prior to the merger [^]. These reports explicitly connected the strategic xAI merger, which consolidated high-growth technology assets, to the widely anticipated mid-2026 IPO, fueling market buzz about an accelerated timeline for a public offering [^]. This confluence of a major corporate event and renewed media focus on its IPO implications acted as the primary catalyst, suggesting social media was a contributing accelerant as this news would rapidly disseminate across platforms [^].
Outcome: Before Aug 1, 2026
📈 February 18, 2026: 14.0pp spike
Price increased from 53.0% to 67.0%
What happened: The 14.0 percentage point spike in the "Before Aug 1, 2026" outcome for SpaceX's IPO on February 18, 2026, was primarily driven by a flurry of traditional financial news reports reiterating the strong likelihood of a mid-2026 listing [^]. Multiple outlets, including Investment Week, FOREX.com, and Morningstar, published articles on this date discussing a potential June 2026 IPO at a significant valuation, with some referencing earlier Financial Times reports [^]. These articles also highlighted the formal acquisition of xAI by SpaceX in February 2026 as a strategic move preceding an IPO, consolidating market sentiment and reinforcing the timeline [^]. While Elon Musk had previously confirmed a 2026 IPO via X in December 2025, no new direct social media posts from key figures or specific viral claims from February 18, 2026, were identified as immediate drivers due to a reported regulatory quiet period [^]. Social media was mostly irrelevant as a direct driver on this specific date, with traditional news acting as the primary accelerant by widely reporting on and consolidating existing rumors and strategic developments around a mid-2026 IPO [^].
📉 February 17, 2026: 16.0pp drop
Price decreased from 69.0% to 53.0%
What happened: The 16.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market for a SpaceX IPO announcement "Before Aug 1, 2026" on February 17, 2026, was primarily driven by the formal acquisition of Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company xAI by SpaceX, which occurred in February 2026 [^]. This all-stock deal, while presented as a strategic move, introduced significant corporate complexity and potential investor scrutiny regarding the combined entity's structure and future [^]. The integration of xAI, a company described as loss-making, may have led market participants to believe that an official IPO announcement for the newly merged SpaceX would be less likely to occur before the August 1, 2026, deadline due to added complexities in valuation, regulatory filings, or operational integration [^]. This traditional news and corporate announcement, published in various outlets around the time of the price movement, coincided with the market's re-evaluation of the IPO announcement timeline [^]. Social media's role was likely a contributing accelerant, disseminating and amplifying analysis of this significant corporate development rather than initiating a new, contradicting statement from key figures [^].
📈 February 13, 2026: 24.0pp spike
Price increased from 45.0% to 69.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 24.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for "When will SpaceX officially announce an IPO?" on February 13, 2026, was the news surrounding the merger of SpaceX and xAI and its implications for a public offering [^]. On February 2, 2026, Bloomberg initially reported the merger, with Elon Musk himself confirming it on X by replying "Yes" to a post mentioning the consolidation of SpaceX and xAI [^]. This news was widely interpreted as a significant precursor to a SpaceX IPO, which was reportedly targeting a valuation between $1.25 trillion and $1.5 trillion [^]. Further news on February 12, 2026, regarding xAI's reorganization post-merger and Musk's plans to use IPO funds for "space-based AI data centers," reinforced the likelihood and scale of the upcoming IPO, directly preceding the market surge [^]. Therefore, social media was a primary driver, as Elon Musk's direct confirmation on X on February 2, 2026, directly led the price movement in conjunction with extensive traditional news coverage of the merger and its IPO implications [^].
Outcome: Before Jun 1, 2026
📉 February 15, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 36.0% to 27.0%
What happened: The 9.0 percentage point drop for the "Before Jun 1, 2026" outcome in the "When will SpaceX officially announce an IPO?" market on February 15, 2026, was primarily driven by traditional news and analytical commentary solidifying a June 2026 target date for the SpaceX IPO [^]. Reports emerging around and shortly after the price movement consistently indicated that Elon Musk was publicly aiming for a 2026 IPO, with June being the most likely date, potentially to coincide with a rare planetary alignment and his birthday [^]. This increasing consensus around a specific June IPO date moved the expected announcement outside the "Before Jun 1, 2026" timeframe, causing the market's confidence in an earlier IPO to decline [^]. Social media activity from key figures directly preceding or coinciding with the price drop was not identified as a primary driver, although the narrative of a June IPO likely gained traction through various channels [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided page content "When will SpaceX officially announce an IPO? Odds & Predictions", the specific details regarding YES/NO resolution triggers, key dates/deadlines, and any special settlement conditions are not available. The content only states the market's question.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Dec 1, 2025 | $1.00 | $1.00 | 100% |
| Before Nov 1, 2025 | $1.00 | $1.00 | 100% |
| Before Oct 1, 2025 | $1.00 | $1.00 | 100% |
| Before Sep 1, 2025 | $1.00 | $1.00 | 100% |
| Before Feb 1, 2026 | $1.00 | $1.00 | 100% |
| Before Jan 1, 2026 | $1.00 | $1.00 | 100% |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | $0.85 | $0.20 | 85% |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | $0.84 | $0.22 | 84% |
| Before Jun 1, 2027 | $0.84 | $0.20 | 84% |
| Before May 1, 2027 | $0.84 | $0.21 | 84% |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | $0.80 | $0.23 | 80% |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | $0.77 | $0.28 | 77% |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | $0.77 | $0.25 | 77% |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | $0.75 | $0.31 | 75% |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | $0.73 | $0.32 | 73% |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | $0.71 | $0.34 | 71% |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | $0.66 | $0.38 | 66% |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | $0.58 | $0.47 | 58% |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | $0.37 | $0.68 | 37% |
| Before May 1, 2026 | $0.23 | $0.82 | 23% |
| Before Apr 1, 2026 | $0.07 | $0.97 | 7% |
| Before Mar 1, 2026 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Discussions surrounding a potential SpaceX IPO largely center on its anticipated record-breaking valuation, with estimates ranging from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, potentially occurring in mid-2026 [^]. While proponents highlight the need for capital to fund ambitious projects like space-based data centers and Starlink expansion, and to provide liquidity for existing shareholders, critics debate whether such a high valuation is sustainable given current revenues and express concerns about the impact on long-term Mars colonization goals, as well as the fairness of potential accelerated index inclusion [^]. Prediction markets show a high probability of the IPO happening by December 31, 2026 [^].
5. What Metrics Signal Starlink's Readiness for a SpaceX IPO?
| Starlink 2026 Revenue | Projected $15.9 billion - $18.7 billion [^] |
|---|---|
| Starlink Subscribers | Over 10 million as of February 2026; projected 18.4 million by end of 2026 [^] |
| SpaceX 2026 FCF | Projected nearly $5 billion [^] |
Starlink's strong financial performance indicates readiness for a public offering. The division achieved and sustained positive free cash flow (FCF) in 2024, contributing significantly to SpaceX's total projected FCF of nearly $5 billion in 2026, primarily due to Starlink's performance [^]. Its recurring, subscription-based revenue stream is forecast to generate between $15.9 billion and $18.7 billion in 2026, constituting 69-80% of SpaceX's total estimated revenue [^]. This predictable revenue stream meets a key requirement set by Elon Musk for a public offering [^].
Robust subscriber growth and pre-IPO activities confirm internal criteria are met. Starlink exceeded 10 million global subscribers in February 2026 and is projected to reach 18.4 million by the end of 2026, demonstrating accelerated adoption [^]. This rapid market penetration, coupled with strong market sentiment—prediction markets showing a 76% probability of an IPO announcement before September 1, 2026—suggests an imminent public offering. SpaceX's board is reportedly engaged in comprehensive financial audits and the selection of lead underwriters, indicating that internal criteria for an integrated SpaceX IPO have been satisfied, with the company potentially valued between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion [^].
6. What is the current status of SpaceX's S-1 IPO filing?
| Targeted Valuation | $1.25 trillion - $1.5 trillion [^], [^] |
|---|---|
| Targeted Capital Raise | $25 billion - $50 billion [^], [^] |
| IPO Filing Target | Q2 2026 [^] |
Specific firms remain unconfirmed, and completion percentages are undisclosed. Neither a specific law firm nor a "Big Four" accounting firm has been publicly confirmed to be leading the S-1 registration statement process for SpaceX's anticipated Initial Public Offering (IPO) [^], [^]. Similarly, no independent registered public accounting firm has been publicly identified for auditing the financials, which represents a monumental task [^], [^]. The precise completion percentage of the initial S-1 draft also remains confidential. SpaceX is actively preparing for this IPO, targeting mid-to-late 2026, with a valuation goal between $1.25 trillion and $1.5 trillion and an aim to raise $25 billion to $50 billion [^], [^].
S-1 drafting is intensive, complicated by the recent xAI merger. The S-1 drafting process is currently in its most intensive phase, with SpaceX reportedly targeting a Q2 2026 filing in anticipation of a June IPO or shortly thereafter [^]. The recent merger with xAI on February 2, 2026, has introduced substantial complexity to the S-1 document [^]. This merger necessitates significant revisions to key sections, including financial statements, business descriptions, and risk factor disclosures [^]. The task of auditing the financials is further exacerbated by the xAI merger and its impact on pro-forma financial statements.
Regulatory steps indicate an S-1 filing is reasonably imminent. While specific firms and completion percentages are not public, there is significant circumstantial evidence pointing to advanced preparations for the IPO. A critical procedural step, the initiation of a regulatory quiet period for employees, has commenced [^]. This action signals that the S-1 drafting is mature and a public filing is reasonably imminent [^]. Despite these indicators of progress, formal engagements of specific law firms and lead accounting firms, as well as the exact completion status, have not been disclosed [^], [^].
7. How Will Humain's Rights Impact SpaceX's 2026 IPO Timeline?
| Projected IPO Valuation | ~$1.5 trillion (Mid-to-late 2026 [^]) |
|---|---|
| SpaceX Valuation Post xAI Merger | ~$1.25 trillion (February 2026) [^] |
| Projected 2026 Revenue | $22 billion to $24 billion (Driven by Starlink) [^] |
Humain, a significant SpaceX shareholder through the February 2026 xAI merger, is highly likely to possess demand registration rights [^] . These standard contractual provisions for institutional investors of Humain's magnitude empower it to compel SpaceX to initiate an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by filing a registration statement with the SEC. Such rights ensure a path to liquidity for Humain's substantial, illiquid stake and shift the IPO decision from solely SpaceX's discretion to a shared timeline with a contractually defined endpoint, strongly incentivizing SpaceX to proactively manage its public listing [^].
SpaceX's IPO is broadly anticipated in mid-to-late 2026 [^] . This anticipated public offering is driven by explosive growth in Starlink and escalating private market valuations. SpaceX was valued at approximately $800 billion in a December 2025 tender offer [^], which subsequently rose to an estimated $1.25 trillion following the February 2026 xAI merger. The projected IPO valuation is approximately $1.5 trillion, with a potential capital raise of up to $50 billion [^]. This valuation and market readiness are underpinned by robust financial performance, with 2026 revenues projected between $22 billion and $24 billion, largely fueled by Starlink's anticipated $18.7 billion revenue and 18.4 million subscribers [^].
An IPO presents risks, but demand rights encourage strategic listing [^] . While a public offering provides liquidity and aligns with Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, it also introduces risks for SpaceX, including potential erosion of autonomy and mandatory disclosures [^]. The existence of demand registration rights incentivizes SpaceX to strategically pursue an IPO under favorable market conditions, rather than being contractually forced into an unfavorable timing. Although alternatives such as a Starlink spin-off IPO or expanded secondary liquidity are considered, a traditional public offering remains the primary and most likely path for SpaceX in 2026.
8. What SEC Scrutiny and Financial Challenges Face SpaceX's xAI IPO?
| xAI Annual Cash Burn | ~$8 billion for 2025 (pre-merger) [learnings] [^] |
|---|---|
| Combined Entity IPO Valuation | $1.25 trillion - $1.5 trillion (mid-2026) [learnings] [^] |
| Apollo Loan for NVIDIA Chips | $3.4 billion [learnings] [^] |
The SEC will intensely scrutinize xAI's development cost accounting and capitalization. The SEC will rigorously scrutinize SpaceX's Form S-1, particularly regarding accounting policies for xAI's development costs [^]. This scrutiny will focus on the capitalization versus expensing of billions spent on AI technology. While ASC 730 generally mandates expensing most research and development costs, such as foundational research and initial model training [^], the recently issued ASU 2025-06 allows for earlier capitalization of internal-use software if project completion is deemed probable [^]. Early adoption of this new guidance could significantly reduce reported expenses and consequently increase the asset base for the consolidated entity prior to its anticipated mid-2026 IPO.
Disclosure integrity and quantifying xAI's financial impact are major SEC concerns. Beyond specific accounting treatments, the SEC harbors significant concerns regarding disclosure integrity, actively issuing warnings against "AI-washing" and exaggerated claims [^]. SpaceX must transparently articulate its chosen accounting policies and key judgments, clearly quantifying the amounts capitalized versus expensed. This level of detail is crucial for investors to accurately comprehend xAI's true financial impact. The consolidation of xAI fundamentally alters SpaceX's risk profile, necessitating comprehensive S-1 disclosures that detail xAI's estimated annual cash burn of approximately $8 billion, its reliance on IPO proceeds, and the substantial uncertainties surrounding AI commercialization and future profitability.
The merger strategically aims for a mid-2026 IPO with significant valuation. The merger strategically positions SpaceX for a mid-2026 initial public offering, targeting a valuation between $1.25 trillion and $1.5 trillion, with an aim to raise $25 billion to $50 billion. Achieving IPO readiness demands meticulous alignment of accounting policies across the combined entity, which will transform the balance sheet to reflect substantial intangible assets from capitalized software and new liabilities. The $3.4 billion loan obtained from Apollo Global Management for NVIDIA chip procurement is likely structured as non-recourse debt, potentially via a Special Purpose Vehicle, serving as a key strategy to manage and contain financial risk before the public offering.
9. What Is the Current Status of the SpaceX IPO Underwriting?
| Lead Underwriter Status | No investment bank officially announced as 'lead left' underwriter [^] |
|---|---|
| IPO Valuation Target | $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion [^] |
| Engagement Letter Status | Not signed; no S-1 filing with SEC [^] |
The SpaceX IPO lacks an officially announced lead underwriter, but candidates emerge. While the selection process is advanced, it remains non-finalized. Morgan Stanley is widely considered the leading candidate for the 'lead left' position due to its long-standing advisory relationship with Elon Musk and the strategic rehiring of senior banker Michael Grimes [^]. Other top-tier Wall Street banks, including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase, are also under consideration for senior roles [^]. However, recent prediction market sentiment indicates a significant surge in odds for Goldman Sachs, reflecting dynamic market perceptions [^].
No formal underwriting engagement is finalized, despite active IPO preparations. There is no public evidence or regulatory filing, such as an S-1 with the SEC, to confirm that a formal engagement letter has been signed with any underwriter, corroborating that the relationship is not yet finalized [^]. SpaceX is targeting a mid-2026 IPO, with a potential listing as early as June 2026, aiming for a valuation between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion and seeking to raise $25 billion to $50 billion in new capital [^]. This timeline aligns with strategic maneuvers, such as the February 2026 all-stock acquisition of Elon Musk's artificial intelligence firm, xAI, which valued the combined entity at approximately $1.25 trillion [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
An official IPO announcement from SpaceX or Elon Musk is the most direct catalyst for a public offering, which Musk has confirmed is "on the way." Reports suggest SpaceX is preparing for a potential IPO targeting mid-June 2026, with discussions with banks indicating an offering around June or July 2026 [^] . Strong financial performance, exemplified by approximately $8 billion in EBITDA profit on $15.5 billion to $16 billion of revenue in 2025, largely driven by Starlink's 9 million global users, could accelerate these plans [^]. Successful Starship development milestones, such as the targeted June 2026 orbital refueling demonstration, would further de-risk the company and showcase its long-term potential [^]. Additionally, a successful merger with xAI could enhance valuation and investor appeal [^].
Conversely, significant Starship delays or failures could push back an IPO, with an internal document suggesting targets of June 2027 for an uncrewed lunar landing and September 2028 for a crewed mission [^] . A deterioration of the broader IPO market due to economic instability or rising interest rates would also likely lead to delays. Elon Musk's unpredictable nature and his public acknowledgment of "issues of having a public stock, like litigation exposure, quarterly reporting pressures, and other inconveniences" highlight the risk of a strategic shift that could postpone the announcement [^]. Increased regulatory scrutiny or intense competition from rivals like Amazon's Project Kuiper could also complicate or delay the IPO process [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 08, 2027
- Closes: June 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: An official IPO announcement from SpaceX or Elon Musk is the most direct catalyst for a public offering, which Musk has confirmed is "on the way." Reports suggest SpaceX is preparing for a potential IPO targeting mid-June 2026, with discussions with banks indicating an offering around June or July 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: Strong financial performance, exemplified by approximately $8 billion in EBITDA profit on $15.5 billion to $16 billion of revenue in 2025, largely driven by Starlink's 9 million global users, could accelerate these plans [^] .
- Trigger: Successful Starship development milestones, such as the targeted June 2026 orbital refueling demonstration, would further de-risk the company and showcase its long-term potential [^] .
- Trigger: Additionally, a successful merger with xAI could enhance valuation and investor appeal [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 6 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 6 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXIPOSPACEX-26JAN01: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
- KXIPOSPACEX-26FEB01: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
- KXIPOSPACEX-25NOV01: NO (Nov 01, 2025)
- KXIPOSPACEX-25DEC01: NO (Dec 01, 2025)
- KXIPOSPACEX-25SEP01: NO (Sep 01, 2025)
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