How much will Tesla deliveries grow before 2027?

This market's price action is defined by a long-term bearish trend and significant recent volatility. The probability of a "YES" outcome has steadily declined from its starting point of 50.0% to its current level of 20.0%. This downward trajectory indicates a sustained loss of market confidence over the contract's lifespan. Technically, the 50.0% level has acted as a strong resistance point, as seen in the sharp rejection after a brief spike to that price on January 25, 2026. A support level appears to have formed in the $0.18 to $0.20 range, a price point the market has repeatedly tested and held, including its current position.

The period from late January to early February 2026 was marked by extreme price swings, including a 17.0 percentage point spike and a 15.0 percentage point drop on consecutive days. With no additional context provided regarding news or corporate developments, the specific catalysts for these dramatic movements cannot be identified from the available data. Such volatility, however, points to a market reacting strongly to new information or shifting expectations as the resolution date nears. The total traded volume of over 20,500 contracts suggests healthy and consistent engagement. These periods of sharp price movement were likely accompanied by high trading volume, indicating strong, albeit conflicting, conviction from traders.

Overall, the chart suggests a predominantly pessimistic market sentiment regarding Tesla's ability to meet the specified delivery growth before 2027. The long-term price decay from an even-money bet to a one-in-five chance is the clearest indicator of this view. However, the recent violent, two-way price action reveals that this sentiment is not entirely settled. The market remains highly uncertain and prone to rapid shifts, suggesting that while the base case is negative, traders are still highly sensitive to any developments that could alter the final outcome.