Tesla production in Q1 2026?
1. Executive Verdict
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 380000 | 67.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above 340000 | 88.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above 400000 | 34.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above 360000 | 79.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above 320000 | 90.0% | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Data
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 280000 | $0.96 | $0.07 | 96% |
| Above 300000 | $0.94 | $0.09 | 94% |
| Above 320000 | $0.90 | $0.13 | 90% |
| Above 340000 | $0.88 | $0.17 | 88% |
| Above 360000 | $0.79 | $0.24 | 79% |
| Above 380000 | $0.67 | $0.36 | 67% |
| Above 400000 | $0.34 | $0.70 | 34% |
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