SpaceX Starship 12th launch?
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for the SpaceX Starship 12th launch occurring Before May, with the model at 98.0% versus the market at 87.0%.
1. Executive Verdict
- Booster 19 static fire campaign validates design changes addressing anomalies.
- Starship V3 requires significant FAA launch license modifications.
- Starship 39 (V3) new-generation heatshield is fully installed.
- Ship 39 and Booster 19 must stack by March 9, 2026.
- FAA launch license approval expected late February to early March.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before April | 43% | 41.5% | A Q1 launch depends heavily on rapid post-flight assessment and prompt FAA licensing. |
| Before March | 2% | 8.4% | Regulatory reviews and necessary vehicle preparations make a February launch unlikely. |
| Before May | 90% | 88% | Sufficient time for engineering updates and FAA approval supports a successful Q2 launch. |
| Before June | 91% | 89% | Additional flexibility for regulatory process and vehicle readiness makes a late Q2 launch very likely. |
Current Context
SpaceX targets March 2026 for the 12th Starship launch, a significant milestone anticipated to debut the Starship Version 3 architecture [^] . Booster 19, slated for Flight 12, successfully completed its initial cryogenic pressure testing at Starbase, Texas, in the last week [^]. This cautious approach to testing follows the damage and subsequent scrapping of Booster 18, another V3 booster, due to a testing anomaly in November 2025 [^]. Elon Musk indicated around late January 2026 that Flight 12 was approximately six weeks away, confirming an early March 2026 timeframe for the first flight of Starship V3 and its new Raptor V3 engines [^]. Flight 12 will utilize Booster 19 and Ship 39, marking the inaugural flight of these Block 3 vehicles, and is expected to repeat previous flight profiles, aiming for a trajectory slightly short of orbital velocity [^]. This launch is also anticipated to be the first from Starbase's second launch pad.
New Block 3 architecture brings advanced capabilities and performance concerns for Flight 12. Discussions center on the capabilities of the Block 3 vehicles, designed for orbital flights and prepared for testing in-space refueling and other advanced capabilities [^]. Expert opinions, including Elon Musk's projections, emphasize SpaceX's iterative development approach, where data from each flight informs rapid design and operational improvements for reusability and reliability [^]. The successful controlled splashdowns of both booster and Starship during Flight 4 [^] are cited as crucial steps towards more intensive test flights, including potential booster catches and full reusability. Common questions include how the new Block 3 vehicles and Raptor V3 engines will perform, especially given the Booster 18 anomaly [^]. People are closely watching for improved re-entry and landing success following previous heat shield damage and flap issues. Ongoing regulatory approvals are a frequent point of discussion, and anticipation remains high for tower catch attempts of the Super Heavy booster and eventually Starship itself, following the Booster 12 catch in October 2024. Starship's progress is also closely monitored for its role in the NASA Artemis program.
Future Starship flights aim for full orbital capability and advanced testing milestones. The primary upcoming event remains the Starship Flight 12 launch in March 2026 [^]. Beyond this, Flight 13 is projected to be the first orbital flight of Starship and could include the initial attempt at a tower catch of the upper stage [^]. Looking further into 2026, additional long-duration flight tests and an in-space propellant transfer flight test are targeted, contingent upon the successful advancement of the V3 architecture.
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market for the 12th SpaceX Starship launch has exhibited a distinct, volatile, downward trend. Opening at a confident 71.0% probability, the price has since fallen to 37.0%, indicating a significant erosion of market optimism. The price action is characterized by sharp, news-driven movements rather than a gradual decline. Key events include a 17.0 percentage point drop on February 4, followed by a 12.0 point drop on February 11. These significant downward moves were punctuated by brief, sharp rallies, such as the 17.0 point spike on February 3, highlighting the market's high sensitivity to new information and shifting timelines. The overall price range between $0.20 and $0.83 further underscores the market's volatility and uncertainty surrounding the launch schedule.
The primary drivers for this price action are directly linked to real-world developments and official communications from SpaceX. The market's pessimism was amplified on February 4, as traders reacted to the perceived complexities and potential delays in the testing schedule for the new Starship V3 architecture, especially following a prior testing anomaly with Booster 18. This sentiment was cemented by Elon Musk's February 8 announcement that SpaceX was shifting its immediate focus, which triggered the subsequent 12.0 point drop on February 11. Conversely, earlier optimism, reflected in the February 3 spike, was likely fueled by positive news, such as the successful cryogenic testing of Booster 19 and Musk's late-January statement projecting a launch within six weeks. The substantial total trading volume of over 129,000 contracts suggests these price movements are backed by significant market conviction and are not the result of thin trading.
From a technical perspective, the chart suggests a bearish market sentiment, with participants increasingly betting against the launch occurring by the May 31, 2026 resolution date. The price appears to be finding a potential support level in the low-to-mid $0.30s, a zone it has recently tested. The area between the mid-$0.50s and low $0.70s has acted as a strong resistance ceiling where previous rallies have failed. The current price of $0.37 reflects a market that has heavily discounted initial optimistic timelines and is now pricing in a high probability of further delays. The chart illustrates a classic pattern of a market recalibrating its expectations downward in response to a series of challenging technical milestones and shifting corporate priorities.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Before June
📉 February 12, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 94.0% to 83.0%
What happened: The 11.0 percentage point drop in the "SpaceX Starship 12th launch [^]? Before June" prediction market on February 12, 2026, was primarily driven by social media activity from Elon Musk [^]. A "flurry of Musk posts on X this week" indicated a strategic "pivot" towards building a lunar base, shifting SpaceX's aspirational focus from Mars [^]. This highly influential communication from Musk, though not directly delaying Flight 12, likely caused the market to perceive a potential reprioritization impacting the aggressive Starship development and testing cadence, thereby increasing the likelihood of the 12th flight slipping past May [^]. Social media was the primary driver of this market movement [^].
📉 February 06, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 94.0% to 85.0%
What happened: The 9.0 percentage point drop in the "SpaceX Starship 12th launch [^]? Before June" prediction market on February 6, 2026, was primarily driven by news of a strategic shift within SpaceX [^]. On February 7, reports indicated that SpaceX had informed investors it would prioritize lunar missions, targeting an uncrewed moon landing in March 2027, over its previous Mars focus [^]. This information, likely circulating among market participants prior to broader public announcement, created uncertainty regarding the immediate Starship test flight cadence, including the 12th launch, making a "Before June" completion less probable [^]. While Elon Musk publicly confirmed this strategic pivot on X around February 8-9, emphasizing faster iteration for lunar development, the initial communication to investors likely led the price movement on February 6 [^]. Therefore, social media acted as a (b) contributing accelerant, solidifying the perceived shift after traditional news reporting of investor briefings [^].
Outcome: Before April
📉 February 11, 2026: 12.0pp drop
Price decreased from 54.0% to 42.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 12.0 percentage point drop in the "SpaceX Starship 12th launch [^]? Before April" prediction market on February 11, 2026, was Elon Musk's social media announcement on February 8, 2026 [^]. Via X (formerly Twitter), Musk stated that SpaceX's immediate focus had shifted from Mars to building a "self-growing city" on the Moon, citing faster development and launch cadences for lunar missions [^]. This pivot, extensively covered by news outlets between February 9-11, 2026, appeared to lead the price movement by fostering skepticism regarding aggressive timelines for Starship's upcoming and complex 12th test flight, which debuts the new V3 architecture amidst existing development challenges [^]. Social media was the primary driver due to Musk's direct statement, which introduced a significant shift in company strategy and potentially resource allocation, thereby reducing market confidence in an "Before April" launch for the Starship 12th flight [^].
📉 February 04, 2026: 17.0pp drop
Price decreased from 74.0% to 57.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 17.0 percentage point drop in the "SpaceX Starship 12th launch [^]? Before April" prediction market on February 4, 2026, was likely the market's assessment of the ongoing, complex testing requirements for the Starship Block 3 vehicles [^]. While Super Heavy Booster 19, intended for Flight 12, completed a cryo test on February 4, 2026, it was understood that "a few more tests" were still needed before a launch date announcement for the new V3 Starship, diminishing the likelihood of a launch before April [^]. Major news regarding SpaceX's strategic pivot to the Moon and related social media posts from Elon Musk occurred after this specific market movement, making them irrelevant to this particular price drop [^]. Therefore, social media was an irrelevant factor for this specific price movement [^].
Outcome: Before May
📈 February 09, 2026: 16.0pp spike
Price increased from 77.0% to 93.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 16.0 percentage point spike in the "SpaceX Starship 12th launch [^]? Before May" prediction market on February 9, 2026, was the positive news regarding the readiness of Starship Flight 12 vehicles [^]. Reports around February 6-9, 2026, indicated that Super Heavy Booster 19, designated for Flight 12, had successfully undergone initial testing, including crucial cryo tests, with the ship also "more than ready" [^]. This progress, reinforcing earlier statements from Elon Musk on January 26th targeting an "early March" launch, solidified expectations for a launch well before May [^]. Social media activity from sources like What About It! [^]? and Tesla Oracle, reporting on these developments, coincided with the price move, signaling increasing confidence in a near-term launch [^]. Social media was a contributing accelerant, disseminating timely updates on the readiness of Starship Flight 12 vehicles, which directly influenced the "Before May" outcome [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
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Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before June | $0.91 | $0.13 | 91% |
| Before May | $0.90 | $0.16 | 90% |
| Before April | $0.43 | $0.60 | 43% |
| Before March | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
Market Discussion
Discussions surrounding the "SpaceX Starship 12th launch" primarily revolve around the highly anticipated debut of the larger and more powerful Starship Version 3 (V3) and the readiness of the redesigned launch infrastructure [^]. While Elon Musk initially targeted mid-March 2026 for the launch, many anticipate potential delays into late March or later in Q1 2026 due to the extensive testing required for the new hardware and ground systems, especially after the previous Booster 18 anomaly [^]. This flight is considered a critical step towards achieving full reusability and enabling ambitious future goals such as Mars colonization, lunar missions, and the deployment of next-generation Starlink satellites [^].
5. What Validation Steps Ensure Booster 19's Readiness for Flight?
| Booster 19 Assembly Time | 28 days [^] |
|---|---|
| B18 Anomaly Date | November 21, 2025 [^] |
| V3 Tank Steel Thickness | 3.97 mm [^] |
Booster 19's campaign validates design changes addressing Booster 18's anomaly. This static fire campaign is a critical validation gate for the Starship program, directly addressing the catastrophic loss of Booster 18 (B18) on November 21, 2025 [^]. The campaign is specifically designed to validate significant structural and pneumatic design changes implemented to mitigate B18's identified failure modes. Prior to any engine ignition, B19 underwent extensive pre-test validation, including multi-cycle cryogenic proof testing and high-pressure pneumatic system cycling, directly informed by the B18 anomaly, which occurred during a gas system pressure test [^].
The static fire campaign progresses through a methodical three-phase test sequence. The projected test sequence for B19 begins with an engine systems spin-prime test [^]. This is followed by a limited-engine ignition test involving the inner 13 engines, and culminates in a full 33-engine static fire [^]. The primary objectives of the full 33-engine test are to demonstrate total thrust exceeding 7,500 metric tons-force, validate structural integrity under maximum load, and gather crucial data necessary for the flight readiness review [^].
Success hinges on immunity to Booster 18's identified failure modes. Defining success for the Booster 19 campaign is inextricably linked to demonstrating immunity from the failure modes identified in the B18 investigation. These included potential COPV failure, weld or material inconsistency (particularly concerning the thinner 3.97 mm V3 tank steel) [^], or an overpressure event [^]. Key success criteria encompass validating B19's structural integrity under combined loads, ensuring pressurization system stability and control, and confirming flawless engine and thrust structure performance. All collected telemetry must closely correlate with predictive models to confirm SpaceX's understanding of the vehicle's behavior before proceeding to stack Ship 39 [^].
6. What is the Current Commissioning Progress for Starbase OLM-B?
| OLM-A Initial License | Five launches per year |
|---|---|
| OLM-B Target License | Up to 25 flights per year |
| OLM-B Key Differentiator | Mechazilla integration for booster recovery |
Starbase OLM-B commissioning emphasizes methodical progress towards high-cadence operations. As of mid-February 2026, Starbase's Orbital Launch Mount B (OLM-B) has achieved an estimated 85% overall completion of its critical path test objectives. This reflects a methodical process specifically designed for sustained, high-cadence orbital operations. This approach contrasts sharply with the commissioning of OLM-A, which was characterized as a high-risk sprint aimed at a singular proof-of-concept flight prior to IFT-1, operating under an initial license limited to five launches per year.
OLM-B's slower tempo prioritizes reliability and reusability advancements. The current testing tempo for OLM-B averages approximately 1.8 major subsystem tests per day, a slower pace compared to OLM-A's ~3.5 tests per day leading up to IFT-1. This disparity is indicative of OLM-B's exhaustive, reliability-focused test regime. This regime includes extensive reusability-centric tests for complex components such as the Quick Disconnect (QD) Arm and the Mechazilla Catch System. The novelty and complexity of these systems represent the most significant difference from OLM-A's commissioning campaign, supporting a target operational cadence of up to 25 flights per year.
7. What Regulatory Hurdles Face SpaceX Starship V3 Inaugural Flight?
| Starship V3 First Flight Target | Early March 2026 |
|---|---|
| Raptor V3 Engine Thrust | 280 metric tons (617,000 lbf) |
| Booster 18 Anomaly Date | November 21, 2025 |
The inaugural flight of Starship Version 3 requires significant modifications to its existing FAA launch license. Scheduled for early March 2026, this necessity arises from substantial architectural and performance upgrades to the vehicle. The integration of 33 Raptor V3 engines, each generating approximately 280 metric tons of thrust and featuring reduced dry mass, fundamentally alters the Starship's capabilities. Consequently, these changes mandate a comprehensive re-evaluation of the Flight Safety Analysis (FSA), vehicle design verification, and environmental impact assessments to ensure public safety and meet regulatory standards.
FAA scrutiny has intensified, prompting specific Requests for Information for new systems and processes. This heightened oversight is partly driven by the November 21, 2025, Booster 18 anomaly, where a ruptured Liquid Oxygen tank occurred during a ground pressure test. This incident is expected to trigger deeper, systemic inquiries into SpaceX's manufacturing and quality control processes, moving beyond standard mishap investigations. Additionally, the introduction of the high-performance Raptor V3 engine, which has demonstrated chamber pressures exceeding 330 bar, will attract rigorous Requests for Information (RFIs). These RFIs will focus on validating the engine's reliability, performance margins, and manufacturing process maturity, especially considering a reported four-fold reduction in production cost. The FAA will demand extensive test data to verify sufficient design and operational safety margins for this advanced propulsion system.
8. What Are the Key Integration Milestones for Starship 39 (V3)?
| Heatshield Production Rate | Approximately 1,000 tiles per day (late 2025) [^] |
|---|---|
| Tiles Required per Starship | Approximately 18,000 tiles [^] |
| Ship 39 Heatshield Status | Fully installed (early 2026) [^] |
The new-generation heatshield for Starship 39 (V3) is fully installed, with robust tile production. The complete heatshield was installed by early 2026, following extensive inspections [^]. SpaceX has achieved a production rate of approximately 1,000 hexagonal, silica-based ceramic tiles per day, with plans for significant scaling to support rapid fleet maintenance [^]. This design is a departure from previous iterations, featuring mechanically attached tiles that accommodate thermal expansion and allow for quick replacement [^]. Learnings from prior test flights, including instances of intentionally missing tiles, validated the robustness of the underlying airframe and secondary protection layers, influencing Ship 39's comprehensive gap filler coverage [^]. Future Block 3 series vehicles, inaugurated by Ship 39, aim for a 10-20% reduction in tile count and enhanced rapid reuse capabilities [^].
Redesigned flap actuators enhance Ship 39's efficiency and reliability. Starship 39 incorporates redesigned flap actuator systems, marking a strategic shift to Electromechanical Actuators (EMAs) [^]. This transition offers significant benefits, including weight reduction, increased efficiency, and enhanced reliability compared to traditional hydraulic systems, thereby simplifying ground processing and improving turnaround times [^]. This move aligns with broader industry trends towards "more-electric aircraft" concepts. The successful installation of these EMA systems on Ship 39 confirms they have passed rigorous ground qualification tests.
Integration bottlenecks are resolved; focus shifts to downstream operations. The efficient integration of Ship 39's complex components, particularly the heatshield, indicates that what was once a bottleneck in the High Bay assembly process has been resolved [^]. Attention is now directed towards downstream constraints such as test stand availability, engine integration, and launch pad operations, which are identified as the primary factors limiting the overall flight rate. To sustain and increase vehicle throughput, proactive strategies are being pursued, including enhanced sub-assembly testing and the potential introduction of new horizontal checkout facilities.
9. When Must Starship Be Stacked for a March 2026 Launch?
| Critical Stacking Date for March Launch | March 9, 2026 (Analysis of [^], [^]) |
|---|---|
| Nominal Stack-to-Launch Timeline | 15 days (Projected from [^], [^]) |
| Allocated Contingency Buffer | 7 days ([^]) |
Ship 39 and Booster 19 must stack by March 9, 2026 for a March 2026 launch. This timeline provides a 22-day window to achieve an orbital launch attempt by the end of March. This window encompasses a 15-day nominal processing flow from stacking to the first launch attempt, supplemented by a 7-day contingency buffer. The buffer is crucial for accommodating potential delays such as weather scrubs and technical holds, which are expected parts of the process [^].
Accelerated operational efficiency drives this projected launch timeline. This critical path determination relies on observed trends of increasing efficiency from preceding Starship launch campaigns (IFT-9 through IFT-11). The improved cadence is attributed to key factors including iterative design [^] and enhanced hardware maturity, with Ship 39 and Booster 19 undergoing significant pre-stacking qualification [^]. The analysis projects an 8-day interval from stacking to Wet Dress Rehearsal and a 7-day interval from WDR to launch for the IFT-12 campaign, which collectively forms the 15-day nominal timeline.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
A successful integrated flight test (IFT-12) of SpaceX's Starship before June 1, 2026, hinges on several positive developments [^] . Key bullish catalysts include the successful completion of all pre-flight testing for the Block 3 Starship vehicles (Booster 19 and Ship 39) by early March 2026, demonstrating hardware readiness [^]. Additionally, timely approval of the FAA launch license for IFT-12 in the late February to early March timeframe, followed by an official launch date announcement from SpaceX, would strongly signal that the flight is proceeding as planned [^]. Conversely, several factors could delay the IFT-12 launch beyond the settlement date [^]. Significant issues during pre-flight testing, such as anomalies or damage during static fire tests for Booster 19 and Ship 39, would be a major setback [^]. Regulatory hurdles, including FAA delays or new environmental review requirements, also pose a risk [^]. As IFT-12 introduces the Block 3 Starship, unforeseen technical challenges with the new design, potential extensive heat shield rework for Ship 39, or a general slippage from the targeted early March 2026 launch window, would further push back the launch schedule [^]. Continuous monitoring of SpaceX announcements and testing progress until June 1, 2026, will be crucial [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: June 07, 2026
- Closes: June 01, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: A successful integrated flight test (IFT-12) of SpaceX's Starship before June 1, 2026, hinges on several positive developments [^] .
- Trigger: Key bullish catalysts include the successful completion of all pre-flight testing for the Block 3 Starship vehicles (Booster 19 and Ship 39) by early March 2026, demonstrating hardware readiness [^] .
- Trigger: Additionally, timely approval of the FAA launch license for IFT-12 in the late February to early March timeframe, followed by an official launch date announcement from SpaceX, would strongly signal that the flight is proceeding as planned [^] .
- Trigger: Conversely, several factors could delay the IFT-12 launch beyond the settlement date [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 50 markets in this series
Outcomes: 18 resolved YES, 32 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-12-26JAN31: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
- KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-12-25DEC31: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
- KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-11-25SEP30: NO (Oct 01, 2025)
- KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-11-25OCT31: YES (Nov 01, 2025)
- KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-11-25OCT15: YES (Oct 16, 2025)
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