SpaceX Starship 12th launch?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect the 12th SpaceX Starship launch to occur Before June, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Starship Flight 12 has not completed crucial pre-flight testing.
- FAA has not closed Starship Flight 11's mishap investigation.
- Historical launches average 57 days between final static fire and launch.
- Elon Musk's early April launch target for Flight 12 is unlikely.
- Orbital propellant transfer is not a Flight 12 mission objective.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before April | 1.0% | 0.5% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Before May | 83.0% | 65.4% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Before June | 94.0% | 85.8% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
Current Context
Starship's twelfth flight test remains unlaunched, with early April targeted. As of March 28, 2026, the SpaceX Starship 12th flight test (IFT-12) has not yet occurred. Elon Musk announced on March 7 that the launch is now aimed for approximately four weeks out, placing it in early April, a revision from an earlier target of early March [^]. This flight will mark the debut of Starship Version 3, utilizing Booster 19 and Ship 39, launching from Starbase Pad 2 in Texas [^]. Pre-launch activities are progressing, with Ship 39 having completed its cryoproofing, and Booster 19 undergoing propellant loading and partial static fire tests [^]. The necessary Federal Communications Commission (FCC) license for the launch is active from April 5 to October 5 [^].
Market predictions point to late April or May amid critical upgrades. Despite the early April target, prediction markets suggest a later launch, with Polymarket odds favoring April 30 at 61% or generally late April, and a 59% chance of launching before May [^]. Some markets now consider May the most probable launch window [^]. Experts suggest that the flight has been delayed due to ongoing Version 3 upgrades and the pressure to meet NASA's Artemis program requirements [^]. The success of this flight is deemed critical for demonstrating orbital refueling capabilities and advancing lunar exploration plans [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has exhibited a sideways trend within an extremely narrow and low-probability range of 1.0% to 3.0%. The most significant price movement was a drop from the 3.0% level on March 14 to the 1.0% level by March 22. This decline appears to be a delayed reaction or a solidification of pessimism following Elon Musk's March 7 announcement that pushed the targeted launch from early March to early April. While the market initially held at 3.0% after the news, the subsequent 66% drop in probability suggests traders' confidence further eroded as the month progressed without a firm launch date, reinforcing the market's bearish outlook on the launch timeline. Since this drop, the price has stabilized at the 1.0% floor.
The market shows a clear support level at 1.0%, which has held for the latter part of the observed period, and resistance at 3.0%, which marked the peak of recent sentiment. The total traded volume of over 63,000 contracts is substantial, indicating significant market interest despite the low probabilities. However, the sample data points show zero volume, suggesting that trading activity is likely intermittent rather than constant. This pattern implies that when trades occur, they are made with high conviction. Overall market sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish, with the current 1.0% price reflecting a 99% consensus that the 12th Starship launch will not occur within the timeframe specified by the market's resolution criteria. The price action indicates the market is discounting positive pre-launch testing progress and is instead focused on schedule delays.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 March 28, 2026: 32.0pp spike
Price increased from 51.0% to 83.0%
Outcome: Before May
What happened: No identifiable primary driver for the 32.0 percentage point spike on March 28, 2026, in the "Before May" outcome could be determined from the available sources. Key social media and news regarding Starship Flight 12 in early March, including Elon Musk's March 7 X post, indicated a delay to early April, which would logically decrease, not increase, the probability of a launch before May [^]. While testing updates occurred mid-March, no specific event coinciding with March 28 explains this significant upward movement [^]. Therefore, based on the provided information, social media was (d) irrelevant to this specific price movement.
📉 March 23, 2026: 13.0pp drop
Price decreased from 59.0% to 46.0%
Outcome: Before May
What happened:
The primary driver of the 13.0 percentage point drop on February 18, 2026, was Elon Musk's social media post. On January 26, 2026, Musk announced on X that Starship Flight 12, marking the V3 debut, was "about 6 weeks" away [^]. This statement, pushing the launch target to approximately March 8, represented a delay compared to prior market expectations, leading to decreased confidence in a "Before May" launch despite March 8 still being within that window [^]. This social media activity led the price movement.
Social media was the (a) primary driver.
📉 March 18, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 65.0% to 56.0%
Outcome: Before May
What happened:
The primary driver for the 9.0 percentage point drop was Elon Musk's announcement on X (formerly Twitter) on March 7, 2026, stating that the "Starship V3 first flight" was "in about 4 weeks" [^]. This statement, made by a highly influential figure, immediately signaled a delay from an earlier target, pushing the estimated launch date to early-to-mid April [^]. Such a narrow window before May, coupled with the history of Starship delays, significantly reduced the perceived probability of the "Before May" outcome. This social media activity clearly led the price movement.
Social media was the primary driver.
📉 March 14, 2026: 14.0pp drop
Price decreased from 59.0% to 45.0%
Outcome: Before May
What happened: The primary driver of the 14.0 percentage point drop was Elon Musk's social media activity on March 7, 2026, announcing on X (formerly Twitter) that the "Starship V3 first flight" was "in about 4 weeks" [^]. This statement, while targeting early April, was widely interpreted by news outlets starting around March 10-11 as another delay from a prior, unstated early March target [^]. This repeated slippage in the target launch date, even if the new date still fell "Before May," significantly reduced market confidence that the launch would occur before the May deadline, leading to the drop on March 14, 2026. Social media was the primary driver.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if SpaceX successfully launches Starship flight test number 12 before May 1, 2026, and to "No" if it does not. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) data is the verifying source for the launch outcome. In cases of delayed FAA data, the market's expiration and settlement will adhere to Kalshi Rule 6.3b.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before April | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Before May | $0.65 | $0.46 | 83% |
| Before June | $0.95 | $0.06 | 94% |
Market Discussion
Traders generally agree that the Starship 12th launch is highly improbable before April, with less than 1% odds. While some participants express skepticism about early launches due to "Elon time" and a history of SpaceX project delays, the market shows strong confidence (83%, up 34 points) for a launch before May. Arguments for a "Yes" before May are supported by early reports and personal estimates of a mid-to-late April launch, contrasting with the general "No" stance stemming from a belief in timeline slippage.
5. What is Starship V3 Flight 12's Current Pre-Flight Test Status?
| Booster 19 Static Fire | Partial 10-engine static fire completed, full 33-engine pending (Mid-March 2026 [^]) |
|---|---|
| Ship 39 Static Fire | Engines installed, multi-engine static fire pending (As of March 28, 2026 [^]) |
| Full Wet Dress Rehearsal | Not reported as completed (As of March 28, 2026 [Web Research Results]) [^] |
Starship Version 3 Flight 12 has not completed final pre-flight tests. As of March 28, 2026, neither Booster 19 nor Ship 39 has finished the requisite final test sequence. Booster 19 successfully underwent cryo proof tests in February 2026 [^]. It then completed a partial 10-engine static fire in mid-March, which was aborted early due to a ground issue [^]. Following this, all 33 Raptor 3 engines were installed, but a full multi-engine static fire test for Booster 19 remains pending [^].
Ship 39's pre-flight testing is progressing, with its static fire pending. Ship 39 completed initial cryo proof and squeeze tests in early March 2026 [^]. The engines have since been installed on Ship 39, but its multi-engine static fire is currently pending as well [^]. A full Wet Dress Rehearsal (WDR), which would involve a stacked propellant load of both Booster 19 and Ship 39, has not been reported as completed [Web Research Results].
Prediction markets indicate a pending launch for Starship Flight 12. These markets reflect the ongoing status of the test campaign, pricing a potential launch in late April or May, thus indicating that Flight 12 has not yet occurred [Web Research Results, 10].
6. What is the status of Starship Flight 11 and Flight 12 approvals?
| Flight 11 Investigation Status | No explicit closure statement available as of March 28, 2026 [^]. |
|---|---|
| Environmental Review Completion | Final Tiered EA with Mitigated FONSI/ROD issued February 2026 [^] |
| Flight 12 License Status | No reported outstanding issues currently delaying issuance [^] |
The FAA has not publicly closed Starship Flight 11's mishap investigation. As of March 28, 2026, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has not publicly released an explicit closure statement regarding the mishap investigation for Starship Flight 11, which occurred on October 13, 2025 [^]. Historically, for successful flights like Flight 11 that achieve objectives without significant public safety impacts, the FAA typically provides return-to-flight approvals or closes investigations promptly [^].
Environmental review and public comment issues are resolved for Flight 12. Regarding potential delays for the 12th Starship flight, recent FAA environmental reviews for Starship operations at the Boca Chica Launch Site are complete [^]. This includes a Final Tiered Environmental Assessment (EA) with a Mitigated Finding of No Significant Impact/Record of Decision (FONSI/ROD) issued in February 2026, and an approval for an increased launch cadence to 25 launches per year, authorized in May 2025 [^]. All associated public comment periods for these environmental reviews have concluded, with the latest closing in January 2025 [^]. Based on available information, there are no outstanding public comments or environmental review issues currently reported that would delay the issuance of the final launch license for Starship Flight 12 [^].
7. How Do Starship Launch Conditions Compare: Late April vs. May?
| Launch Constraint Probabilities | Not explicitly available for late April vs [^]. May [Web Research Results] [^] |
|---|---|
| Average May Precipitation | 2.19 inches (compared to April's 1.17 inches) [^] |
| Average April Wave Height | 1.4 ft (May: 1.5 ft) [^] |
Explicit statistical probabilities for Starship launch constraint violations are not available. This includes upper-level wind shear and triboelectrification risk, specifically quantified for late April versus May primary launch windows. Average surface wind speeds in Boca Chica during both April and May are approximately 21 mph [^]. Regarding triboelectrification risk, often influenced by cloud presence and precipitation, May typically experiences higher average precipitation at 2.19 inches compared to April's 1.17 inches [^]. This increase in moisture and potential cloud cover in May could marginally increase the risk of triboelectrification relative to late April.
Sea state conditions for recovery operations generally remain favorable during both periods. Data indicates generally low waves in the Gulf of Mexico near Boca Chica year-round [^], with conditions considered slightly better from November through April than in May [^]. Average wave heights for April are around 1.4 feet, increasing marginally to 1.5 feet in May [^]. This suggests both periods are generally favorable, with late April having a slight edge. Without specific Starship-tailored probabilistic models incorporating these factors, it is not possible to provide a statistical probability of violating specific launch constraints for these periods.
8. Is Orbital Propellant Transfer an Objective for Starship IFT-12?
| Orbital Propellant Transfer Mission | Scheduled for late 2026, not IFT-12 [^] |
|---|---|
| NASA Propellant Transfer Review for IFT-12 | No documented dependencies or readiness reviews [^] |
| Ground Support Equipment (GSE) Readiness | Operational, supporting IFT-12 pre-flight tests as of mid-March 2026 [^] |
The orbital propellant transfer demonstration is not part of Starship Flight 12. This demonstration is planned for a separate mission in late 2026, not for Starship's 12th integrated flight test (IFT-12) [^]. Consequently, no documented NASA dependencies or readiness reviews related to this propellant transfer affect IFT-12's launch readiness [^]. IFT-12's objectives primarily center on Block 3 vehicle testing, preflight cryo proofs, static fire tests, and pad upgrades, without including an in-orbit propellant transfer objective for this particular flight [^].
Ground support equipment for future propellant transfers is currently operational. Crucial ground support equipment (GSE) necessary for future propellant transfer capabilities is already operational and actively supporting IFT-12's pre-flight activities [^]. This includes redesigned quick disconnects on Ship 39 and expanded tank farms [^]. As of mid-March 2026, this GSE has successfully facilitated propellant load tests, such as loading Booster 19 in approximately 30 minutes, thereby demonstrating its readiness for advanced propellant handling, even though the orbital transfer objective itself is slated for a future mission [^].
9. How Long Between Final Static Fire and Starship Launch?
| Average Days (Static Fire to Launch) | 57.3 days ([^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^]) |
|---|---|
| Median Days (Static Fire to Launch) | 57 days ([^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^]) |
| Shortest Interval (IFT-11) | 36 days ([^], [^], [^]) |
Starship flights show a significant, variable period between static fire and launch. An analysis of the three most recent Starship flights (IFT-9, IFT-10, and IFT-11) indicates a variable interval between the final full static fire test and the actual launch day. The average period was 57.3 days, while the median was 57 days. These figures demonstrate a notable duration often required for pre-launch preparations after the booster's final static fire test [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^].
Specific flight timelines varied, with delays primarily from technical issues or weather. IFT-9, which launched on May 27, 2025 [^], [^], [^], had its static fire on April 3, 2025, resulting in a 54-day interval with no reported delays in its final launch window. IFT-10 launched on August 26, 2025 [^], [^], following its static fire on June 6, 2025, a gap of 82 days. This flight experienced scrubbed launch attempts on August 24 due to a technical issue and on August 25 because of adverse weather conditions [^], [^]. IFT-11, launched on October 13, 2025 [^], [^], [^], recorded the shortest interval at 36 days after its static fire on September 7, 2025, and did not report any final window delays [^], [^], [^]. The varying intervals and noted delays highlight how unforeseen technical issues or adverse weather conditions can lead to last-minute scrubs and extend the time from final testing to actual launch.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The timing of Starship Flight 12, marking the debut of the V3/Block 3 configuration with Booster 19 and Ship 39, remains a significant catalyst [^] . As of late March 2026, no firm launch date is confirmed, though the target is NET April 2026 from Starbase OLP-2, following a five-month gap since Flight 11 [^]. While Elon Musk's earlier estimates pointed to an early April launch, aligning with an FCC license valid from April to October 2026, market probabilities suggest a late April launch [^]. Significant odds are also placed on a Super Heavy explosion (45-62%) and lower odds for a successful splashdown (36-39%) [^]. Several factors could influence the success and cadence of future Starship flights [^]. Bullish catalysts include the anticipated performance improvements from the V3/Raptor 3 debut, which promises double the thrust, along with the readiness of Pad 2 and pressure from NASA's Artemis program [^]. The completion of cryoproofing on March 7 also marks a significant step forward [^]. Conversely, potential bearish factors include continued FAA regulatory delays, testing anomalies as seen with Booster 18 being scrapped in November 2025, and broader supply chain challenges [^]. The total number of launches for 2026 is most likely projected between five and six [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 07, 2026
- Closes: June 01, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The timing of Starship Flight 12, marking the debut of the V3/Block 3 configuration with Booster 19 and Ship 39, remains a significant catalyst [^] .
- Trigger: As of late March 2026, no firm launch date is confirmed, though the target is NET April 2026 from Starbase OLP-2, following a five-month gap since Flight 11 [^] .
- Trigger: While Elon Musk's earlier estimates pointed to an early April launch, aligning with an FCC license valid from April to October 2026, market probabilities suggest a late April launch [^] .
- Trigger: Significant odds are also placed on a Super Heavy explosion (45-62%) and lower odds for a successful splashdown (36-39%) [^] .
13. Related News
Last updated: March 28, 2026, 12:14 UTC
Starship Flight 12 Market Shifts Sharply Toward April Launch
The prediction market for the 12th flight of SpaceX's Starship vehicle experienced a significant repricing on Saturday, March 28, 2026, consolidating the implied consensus for a launch in April. The c...
Last updated: March 28, 2026, 12:14 UTC
Starship Launch Market Pushes Timeline, Prices May as Most Likely Window
The prediction market for SpaceX's 12th Starship launch has undergone a notable shift, with traders pushing back the expected timeline from April to May 2026. The probability of a launch occurring "Be...
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 6 resolved YES, 14 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-12-26JAN31: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
- KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-12-26FEB28: NO (Mar 01, 2026)
- KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-12-25DEC31: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
- KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-11-25SEP30: NO (Oct 01, 2025)
- KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-11-25OCT31: YES (Nov 01, 2025)
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