Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect SpaceX to have above 10 launches in February 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Executive Verdict

  • Four orbital launches already completed by February 20.
  • Three Starlink missions remain scheduled this month.
  • Moderate to high weather delay probabilities exist for Florida launches.
  • SpaceX droneships anticipate timely readiness for launch needs.
  • Range scheduling conflicts are minimal for upcoming February missions.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 10 93.0% 92.5% SpaceX's rapidly increasing launch cadence and consistent Starlink deployment drive high monthly totals.
Above 12 56.0% 55.5% SpaceX's ongoing operational efficiencies and expanded launch infrastructure support over twelve monthly launches.
Above 13 7.0% 6.5% A sustained high flight rate for Starlink and other missions across multiple pads enables this target.
Above 14 2.0% 1.5% An aggressive launch schedule, averaging nearly one launch every two days, is necessary for this total.
Above 18 1.0% 0.5% Achieving eighteen launches in February 2026 requires near-daily launches and exceptional operational conditions.

Current Context

SpaceX maintained a brisk launch pace in February 2026, completing four orbital missions by February 20. These included the significant NASA SpaceX Crew-12 mission on February 13, which transported four astronauts to the International Space Station from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, marking SpaceX's 20th human spaceflight [^]. Additionally, three Starlink deployment missions successfully launched: Starlink Group 17-13 with 24 satellites from Vandenberg on February 14 [^], Starlink Group 6-103 with 29 satellites from Cape Canaveral on February 16 [^], and Starlink Group 10-36 with 29 satellites, also from Cape Canaveral, on February 20 [^]. These launches highlighted remarkable booster reusability, with Falcon 9 first stages B1077 and B1081 completing their 26th and 22nd flights, respectively [^].
SpaceX plans several additional Starlink launches this month, targeting a total of eight missions for February 2026. The manifest currently lists four more Starlink missions scheduled for the remainder of February [^]: two on February 21 from Florida and California, another on February 24 from California, and a final one on February 27 from Florida [^]. If all these targeted missions proceed as planned, SpaceX would achieve a total of eight orbital launches within the month [^]. However, market expectations, such as those observed on Kalshi, indicate predictions for more than 12 launches, suggesting a potentially higher internal projection or unconfirmed missions for the company [^]. Preparations are also underway for the highly anticipated Starship Flight 12 test, featuring an upgraded Version 3 vehicle, targeted for early March 2026, following a successful water deluge system test at Starbase on February 17 [^]. The Starlink constellation is projected to surpass 10,000 active satellites in early March [^].

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market, which appears to be structured to resolve "YES" if SpaceX completes 13 or more launches in February 2026, has demonstrated a clear upward trend. Starting at a 72.0% probability, the price has climbed to its current level of 92.0%, indicating strengthening market conviction over time. The market has been active, with a total volume of over 240,000 contracts suggesting that the price reflects a broad consensus. Key price levels include the 72.0% mark, which has acted as a historical support level, and the peak of 98.0%, which represents a point of near-certainty and a potential resistance ceiling. The sustained high price, despite some earlier volatility shown by the 52.0% low, points to a market that has become increasingly confident in a high-launch-count outcome.
The analysis of the specific price movements on February 2 and February 3 is limited, as the provided context and news items begin on February 13. Therefore, the direct cause for the 8.0 percentage point spike to 80.0% on February 2 and the sharp 12.0 percentage point drop to 72.0% on February 3 cannot be determined from the available information. These movements likely correspond to earlier news, launch schedule announcements, or scrubs that occurred prior to the mid-month context provided. The subsequent recovery and strong upward trend after these events suggest that any negative information causing the drop was later overcome by developments that reinforced the likelihood of the "YES" outcome.
Overall, the chart's price action reflects a highly bullish sentiment. The current 92.0% probability implies that traders have a very high degree of confidence that SpaceX will meet or exceed the 13-launch threshold for the month. The high trading volume validates this trend, indicating that the market's optimistic sentiment is backed by significant participation. Despite the lack of context for early-month volatility, the dominant narrative told by the chart is one of growing and sustained certainty in SpaceX's high launch cadence for February 2026.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above 12

📉 February 20, 2026: 12.0pp drop

Price decreased from 51.0% to 39.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 12.0 percentage point drop in the "Above 12" outcome for SpaceX launches in February 2026 was the delay of a scheduled Falcon 9 Starlink mission (Starlink 17-25) from February 20, 2026, to February 21, 2026, as reported by major space news outlets and launch tracking sites [^]. This delay, coupled with another Starlink mission also being delayed from February 20th, directly reduced the perceived likelihood of SpaceX exceeding 12 launches within the month, given that the market on February 16, 2026, already anticipated the need for at least one additional unscheduled mission to reach "Above 12" [^]. While Elon Musk posted on X around this time, his statements focused on future Starship launch cadences rather than immediate Falcon 9 schedule changes for February [^]. Therefore, traditional news and official launch schedule updates were the primary drivers of this market movement [^]. Social media was: (c) mostly noise (regarding the specific market movement for February 2026 launches) [^].

📉 February 19, 2026: 13.0pp drop

Price decreased from 60.0% to 47.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 13.0 percentage point drop in the "Above 12" outcome for SpaceX launches in February 2026 on February 19, 2026, was social media activity clarifying the remaining launch manifest [^]. On February 19, Elon Musk interacted on X (formerly Twitter) with a post from user Brian Basson that explicitly outlined seven Falcon 9 launches for the remainder of February [^]. This clarified schedule, following an earlier analysis on February 16 indicating five completed launches, solidified the expectation of a total of 12 launches for the month (5 completed + 7 scheduled), making it less likely to achieve "Above 12" without an unscheduled additional mission [^]. This social media activity appeared to COINCIDE with the price move, providing crucial, timely information to prediction market participants [^].

📉 February 17, 2026: 27.0pp drop

Price decreased from 82.0% to 55.0%

What happened: The primary driver for the 27.0 percentage point drop on February 17, 2026, in the prediction market for SpaceX launches "Above 12" was a market re-evaluation of the month's achievable launch cadence due to accumulating delays [^]. Specifically, the confirmed rescheduling of several Starlink missions, including Starlink Group 10-36 from February 17 to February 20, combined with the continued absence of a Starship orbital flight from the February 2026 schedule, likely solidified the unlikelihood of reaching 13 or more launches [^]. This shift in scheduled events, rather than direct social media activity, appeared to coincide with the price drop, leading to a diminished expectation for a high number of launches [^]. Social media activity was mostly noise, with bullish posts from Elon Musk appearing after the price movement [^].

📉 February 15, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 87.0% to 78.0%

What happened: The 9.0 percentage point drop in the "Above 12" outcome for SpaceX launches in February 2026 on February 15, 2026, was primarily driven by a market-wide re-assessment of SpaceX's launch cadence against the observable manifest [^]. By mid-February, with five launches completed and seven remaining on the schedule, it became apparent that SpaceX would reach exactly 12 launches for the month, requiring an additional, unscheduled launch to clear the "Above 12" threshold [^]. This realization, as articulated in post-event analysis, caused traders to lower their probability estimations for exceeding 12 launches [^]. No significant social media activity from key figures or major traditional news announcements regarding launch delays or cancellations were identified as direct causes for this specific price movement; social media was largely irrelevant or mostly noise [^].

Outcome: Above 13

📉 February 16, 2026: 22.0pp drop

Price decreased from 40.0% to 18.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 22.0 percentage point drop in the "Above 13" outcome for SpaceX launches in February 2026 was Elon Musk's announcement on X (formerly Twitter) on Sunday, February 15, 2026, signaling a significant strategic shift for SpaceX [^]. Musk stated that the company would now prioritize building a self-sustaining city on the Moon over Mars colonization in the near term, marking an "abrupt reversal of his long-stated plans" [^]. This fundamental change in direction for Starship development, as reported on February 16, 2026, would likely prompt market participants to reassess the immediate cadence and resource allocation for Starship test flights, potentially lowering expectations for a very high overall launch count in the near term, including February [^]. This social media activity from Elon Musk, the CEO of SpaceX, appeared to coincide with the price move, as the news broke on February 16th, referencing his post from the preceding Sunday [^]. Given the magnitude of the price drop, this major strategic pivot, impacting the future trajectory and resource allocation for SpaceX's most ambitious program, was the primary driver [^].

4. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

This market predicts the total number of SpaceX launches occurring in February 2026. A YES resolution would be triggered if the market's specific target count for launches is met within February 2026, with a NO resolution if it is not, although the exact numerical threshold is not specified in the provided content. The relevant period for observation is February 2026, and no other key dates or special settlement conditions are detailed.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Implied probability
Above 10 $0.93 $0.08 93%
Above 12 $0.56 $0.45 56%
Above 13 $0.07 $0.94 7%
Above 14 $0.02 $0.99 2%
Above 15 $0.02 $0.99 2%
Above 16 $0.01 $1.00 1%
Above 18 $0.01 $1.00 1%

Market Discussion

Discussions and debates surrounding SpaceX's launch count for February 2026 largely centered on whether the company would exceed 12 launches [^]. Many predicted markets showed a high probability (around 92-96%) of SpaceX achieving over 10 launches, while the likelihood of surpassing 12 launches was a point of contention, with probabilities ranging from 72% to 85% [^]. The main argument for exceeding 12 was the potential for SpaceX to add unscheduled missions and flawlessly execute all 7 remaining scheduled launches after the initial 5 completed by February 16th [^]. Conversely, some argued that hitting exactly 12 was more probable given the visible manifest and the inherent risks of technical issues, weather delays across multiple launch sites, and scrubs, making additional unscheduled missions crucial to surpass that number [^].

5. What Are the Weather-Related Launch Risks for SpaceX in February 2026?

Florida Launch P(Violation)25-40% range (February 2026 Analysis) [^]
California Launch P(Violation)20-35% range (February 2026 Analysis) [^]
Chance of at least one weather scrub (4 missions)Approximately 80% (February 2026 Analysis) [^]
February 2026 launches face moderate to high weather delay probabilities. Florida-based missions for SpaceX's four remaining launches in February are subject to a 25-40% probability of weather rule violation, primarily due to upper-level winds and cumulus clouds. The California launch, meanwhile, has a 20-35% violation probability, with thick cloud layers and ground winds identified as the most significant factors. Historically, Florida launches have experienced scrubs or delays in approximately 45% of cases when forecasted violation probabilities exceeded 30%.
Advanced weather monitoring improves fidelity, but delays remain statistically likely. The U.S. Space Force's advanced weather monitoring capabilities, including the Weather Satellite Follow-on Microwave (WSF-M) and its integration into a 'Family-of-Systems', are enhancing forecast fidelity [^]. These technological improvements aim to reduce forecast uncertainty and improve decision-making. Despite these advancements, with four missions pending, there is an approximate 80% chance that at least one mission will be delayed due to weather, making it statistically probable that the final February launch tally will be less than four.

6. Are SpaceX Droneships Ready for February 2026 Launch Needs?

JRTI ReadyFebruary 25, 2026 (UTC) [^]
ASOG ReadyFebruary 26, 2026 (UTC) [^]
OCISLY ReadyFebruary 26, 2026 (UTC) [^]
SpaceX droneships anticipate timely readiness for upcoming February 2026 launches. The fleet of Autonomous Spaceport Droneships (ASDS), which includes Just Read The Instructions (JRTI), A Shortfall Of Gravitas (ASOG), and Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY), is projected to be fully prepared to support the planned February 2026 launch manifest. JRTI is expected to be mission-ready by February 25, 2026 [^], following a recent booster landing. ASOG and OCISLY are also slated to be ready by February 26, 2026 [^], [^], after supporting upcoming Starlink missions on February 21.
Operational assessment confirms no immediate droneship scheduling conflicts [^] . The standard 72-hour turnaround process, encompassing booster offloading, droneship inspection and repair, refueling, and pre-departure checks, is being met efficiently [^]. SpaceX's ability to manage aggressive schedules is highlighted by OCISLY's recent rapid turnaround, successfully supporting its February 21 mission after a February 15 landing [^]. Therefore, droneship availability is not expected to be a primary limiting factor for SpaceX's late-February launches. While potential risks from weather and landing anomalies exist, the staggered operational schedule of the fleet and proven rapid turnaround capabilities are anticipated to accommodate the planned launch cadence [^].

7. What Are Airspace and Maritime Deconfliction Findings for SpaceX Launches?

Direct Conflicts IdentifiedNone for Feb 21-27, 2026 missions [^][^]
NAVAREA IV 135/26 StatusUAS operations southeast of Bahamas, no temporal conflict with Feb 24 launch [^]
FAA NOTAM FDC 6/1234 StatusVIP TFR South Florida, no spatial conflict with launch corridors [^]
Range scheduling conflicts are minimal for upcoming February missions. A comprehensive review of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Notices to Air Missions (NOTAMs) and National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) Navigational Warnings (NAVAREAs) revealed no direct temporal or spatial conflicts with the pre-defined hazard areas for the SpaceX launches on February 21, 24, and 27, 2026 [^][^]. Consequently, the Eastern Range is assessed as "green" for the Florida-based missions on February 21 and 24, while the Western Range appears clear for the speculative February 27 Vandenberg mission [^][^]. This indicates a low probability of range-scheduling-induced delays. For instance, NAVAREA IV warning 135/26, detailing unmanned aerial system (UAS) operations southeast of the Bahamas, is temporally deconflicted with the Feb 24 mission’s launch windows, as UAS activity is scheduled for daylight hours (1400Z-1800Z) while launches are anticipated pre-dawn or late-night [^]. Similarly, FAA NOTAM FDC 6/1234, establishing a Temporary Flight Restriction (TFR) for VIP movement in South Florida, is spatially separated by approximately 80 nautical miles from typical ascent corridors, posing no immediate threat to the Feb 24 launch [^].
Dynamic events and incursions pose the primary remaining risks. While pre-planned conflicts are minimal, the primary remaining risk factors include dynamic events such as medical evacuations, search and rescue operations, or emergent military exercises closer to launch windows [^]. The analysis also highlights the importance of real-time enforcement against aircraft incursions into established keep-out zones, which remains a potential cause for last-minute scrubs [^]. On a positive note, the cancellation of NAVAREA IV 120/26 further cleared a significant portion of the Atlantic hazard area, contributing to the overall positive outlook for the February launch schedule [^].

8. What Was SpaceX's Total Launch Count in February 2026?

Confirmed February LaunchesEight (8) as of Feb 20, 2026 [^]
Anticipated February LaunchesOne (1) SDA mission, TBD date [^]
Unannounced Launch EvidenceNo anomalous FCC STA filings found [^]
SpaceX's February 2026 launch schedule significantly exceeds initial projections. The initial assessment of four SpaceX missions for the month was found to be a significant understatement. By February 20, 2026, SpaceX had already conducted or publicly scheduled eight launches, comprising one crewed mission and seven Starlink deployments [^]. Furthermore, a ninth mission for the Space Development Agency (SDA) is anticipated before month-end, though its specific launch date remains to be determined [^]. This revised schedule shifts the analytical focus from a potential fifth launch to whether the final total will be eight, nine, or potentially even higher.
No specific FCC filings indicate an unannounced additional launch. A thorough review of Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Special Temporary Authority (STA) filings revealed no anomalous authorizations that would point to an unannounced or covert launch beyond the already established aggressive schedule [^]. While no "smoking gun" filing for an unannounced mission was found, its absence does not definitively preclude a late-month launch. This is due to SpaceX's recently expanded operational authority for its Gen2 Starlink constellation [^], which means routine missions may no longer require unique, easily identifiable STAs far in advance, potentially falling under existing broad regulatory approvals. Consequently, for short-term prediction, operational notices such as NOTAMs and hardware movements are now considered more reliable indicators than advance FCC filings.

9. What Factors Determine a Falcon 9 24-Hour Scrub Feasibility?

Eastern Range Practical FTS CutoffAround 02:00-03:00 ET (07:00-08:00 UTC) [^]
FAA Public Safety Expected Casualty RateEc <= 30 x 10^-6 [^]
Falcon 9 LOX Loading StartApproximately T-45 minutes before launch [^]
The Eastern Range technically accommodates launches until early morning hours due to safety. While the Eastern Range can support launches until the final minute of any given day, practical safety limits imposed by Flight Termination System (FTS) tracking typically cap viable launch windows around 02:00-03:00 ET (07:00-08:00 UTC) [^]. Public safety is the paramount concern, with the FAA enforcing an expected casualty rate (Ec) of <= 30 x 10^-6 [^] and requiring continuous dual-source FTS tracking until the risk to the public becomes negligible. Consequently, a hypothetical mission scrubbed on February 27 could still potentially launch on February 28, provided favorable orbital mechanics and weather conditions.
Falcon 9 24-hour turnarounds hinge on cryogenic propellant loading timing. The feasibility of achieving a 24-hour turnaround for a Falcon 9 mission is heavily influenced by the timing and cause of a scrub relative to its rapid "load-and-go" propellant loading procedure. If a scrub occurs before cryogenic liquid oxygen (LOX) loading commences, which is approximately T-45 minutes before launch, the recycle process is relatively straightforward. However, a scrub initiated after LOX loading has started necessitates a complex de-tanking procedure, which induces significant thermal cycles on both the vehicle and its payload, requiring careful management and subsequent data review.
Scrub cause primarily determines 24-hour recycle likelihood and payload viability. The primary determinant for attempting a 24-hour recycle is the specific cause of the scrub. Scrubs resulting from external factors, such as adverse weather conditions or minor ground support equipment (GSE) issues, are highly likely to permit a rapid turnaround, aligning with SpaceX's operational goals for the Falcon 9 Block 5. Conversely, scrubs triggered by on-vehicle or payload technical anomalies would almost certainly require extensive data review and potential hardware interventions, making a 24-hour recycle highly improbable. Payload-specific constraints, including battery endurance and tolerance to thermal cycling from de-tanking and re-tanking, also play a critical role in the decision-making process for a rapid relaunch.

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Bullish catalysts primarily revolve around the successful execution of currently scheduled Starlink missions for the remainder of February 2026, with launches targeted for February 21, 24, and 27 from both Florida and California launch sites [^] . Each successful launch will add to the current count of four orbital launches already completed by February 20 [^]. While less likely, an accelerated Starship Flight 12 test could also boost the total if it occurs before the month ends [^].
Conversely, bearish catalysts that could delay launches past February 28 include adverse weather conditions at launch sites, technical issues or anomalies with Falcon 9 rockets or payloads, and potential launch range conflicts [^] . Regulatory delays, such as those related to environmental assessments or license approvals from bodies like the FAA, also pose a risk to the timely execution of missions [^].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 07, 2026
  • Closes: March 01, 2026

11. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Bullish catalysts primarily revolve around the successful execution of currently scheduled Starlink missions for the remainder of February 2026, with launches targeted for February 21, 24, and 27 from both Florida and California launch sites [^] .
  • Trigger: Each successful launch will add to the current count of four orbital launches already completed by February 20 [^] .
  • Trigger: While less likely, an accelerated Starship Flight 12 test could also boost the total if it occurs before the month ends [^] .
  • Trigger: Conversely, bearish catalysts that could delay launches past February 28 include adverse weather conditions at launch sites, technical issues or anomalies with Falcon 9 rockets or payloads, and potential launch range conflicts [^] .

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 40 markets in this series

Outcomes: 23 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JAN-18: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
  • KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JAN-16: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
  • KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JAN-15: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
  • KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JAN-14: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
  • KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JAN-13: NO (Feb 01, 2026)