Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Tim Cook to leave Apple before 2027, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Executive Verdict

  • Tim Cook's final major RSU tranche vested on April 1, 2025.
  • John Ternus's increased public speaking may signal CEO succession planning.
  • Apple's board intensified succession planning discussions in late 2025.
  • Institutional shareholders have not explicitly demanded Cook's ouster.
  • Apple's major AI expansion and iOS 27 are set for June 2026.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before 2027 38% 37.5% Tim Cook will be 66 in 2026, making a succession plan plausible within this timeframe.
Before July 16% 13.5% Only a major, unforeseen event like a health crisis or scandal would prompt such a quick departure.

Current Context

Speculation on Tim Cook's departure is active amid recent developments. Apple reported record fiscal Q1 2026 revenue of $143.8 billion, up 16% year-over-year, and diluted earnings per share of $2.84, up 19% year-over-year, with Tim Cook highlighting "unprecedented demand" for iPhones and record Services revenue. During a recent earnings call around February 2, 2026, Cook also hinted at "unprecedented innovations" coming in the current year. Concurrently, Apple's AI division has seen significant talent turnover, with at least four AI researchers and a senior Siri executive departing for competitors like Meta and Google DeepMind by January 30, 2026, fueling concerns about Apple's AI efforts. A "Tim Cook Resignation movement" is reportedly in its early stages due to these AI delays and a recent partnership with Google Gemini. Cook has also remained publicly engaged, issuing an internal memo on January 28, 2026, expressing heartbreak over a Minneapolis killing and discussing it with President Trump.
Conflicting expert opinions project varied departure timelines for Cook. While some November 2025 reports suggested Cook might step down as early as 2026, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman stated he would be "shocked" if Cook leaves before mid-2026 and dismissed imminent 2026 departure reports as "simply false". Wedbush analysts predict he will remain CEO through at least the end of 2027 to oversee a critical AI technology transition. Speculation also extends to him staying through the current US presidency, ending January 2029. John Ternus, Apple's Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering, is widely considered the leading candidate for succession, with other senior executives like Craig Federighi, Eddy Cue, Greg Joswaik, and Deirdre O'Brien also mentioned. Tim Cook, who turned 65 in November 2024, has served as CEO since 2011, overseeing an increase in the company's market value from $350 billion to over $4 trillion.
Broader concerns about Apple's AI strategy and innovation persist. J.P. Morgan acknowledges Cook's "unmatched scaling" but notes that executive departures and AI performance have kept succession on investors' minds. LightShed Partners, in July 2025, argued that Apple's AI struggles indicate a need for a "product-focused CEO, not one centered on logistics", a sentiment echoed by an anonymous former senior Apple manager who cited a "lack of leadership and vision" in AI. Industry analysts generally have mixed reactions to Cook's potential exit, with some viewing it as a healthy progression and others expressing caution about innovation uncertainty, particularly in AI and spatial computing. Upcoming events include Apple's 2026 Annual Shareholders' Meeting on February 24, 2026, where shareholders will vote on company matters, including the waiver of director age limits for Chairman Art Levinson and audit chair Ron Sugar, which is sparking succession planning discussions. A dividend payment of $0.26 per share is payable on February 12, 2026. Key questions revolve around Cook's actual retirement date, the leadership style of his successor, how Apple will address its perceived lag in AI, and the impact of leadership changes on its innovation pipeline. It is widely expected that Cook would transition to a Chairman of the board role after stepping down as CEO.

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has exhibited a clear, albeit volatile, downward trend, with the probability of Tim Cook departing before 2026 falling from an initial 51.0% to the current 37.0%. The most significant price action occurred in a highly reactive period in mid-to-late January 2026. The price saw sharp spikes driven by news perceived as increasing the likelihood of an imminent departure, such as reports of intensified succession planning on January 13 (driving the price to a high of 55.0%) and the expansion of John Ternus's role on January 23. Conversely, these spikes were met with severe drops, primarily caused by reports from influential analyst Mark Gurman, who consistently countered departure rumors and suggested Cook would remain until at least mid-2026, pushing the price down to a low of 33.0% on January 18.
Analysis of the price action reveals key technical levels and market sentiment. A significant resistance level appears to have formed in the 50-55% range, an area the market reached but failed to sustain, indicating sellers became dominant when the perceived probability of departure exceeded an even chance. A support level has been established in the low 30s (around 33%), where buyers have previously stepped in, preventing further declines. The total traded volume of over 21,000 contracts suggests robust engagement, with the periods of high volatility in January likely seeing the most concentrated trading activity as participants digested breaking news. The overall price decline suggests that while the market remains highly sensitive to succession-related news, the prevailing sentiment has shifted to believe that a pre-2026 departure is unlikely. The current 37.0% price reflects a cautious but minority view that a leadership change could still occur before the deadline.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 January 23, 2026: 14.0pp spike

Price increased from 26.0% to 40.0%

Outcome: Before 2027

What happened: The 14.0 percentage point spike in the "Before 2027" outcome for "When will Tim Cook leave Apple?" on January 23, 2026, was primarily driven by news reports of Apple quietly expanding John Ternus's role to include oversight of the company's design teams. This move, reported by outlets like The Times of India on the exact date of the spike, was widely interpreted as a significant step in Tim Cook's succession planning, positioning Ternus as the leading candidate to succeed him. While Bloomberg's Mark Gurman had previously expressed skepticism about Cook leaving before mid-2026, this concrete internal restructuring likely signaled a more definite succession timeline to the market. Additionally, social media activity, such as investor Ross Gerber's late January posts on X calling for Cook's resignation due to Apple's AI strategy, served as a contributing accelerant, amplifying the existing speculation. Social media was a contributing accelerant.

📉 January 18, 2026: 14.0pp drop

Price decreased from 47.0% to 33.0%

Outcome: Before 2027

What happened: The primary driver of the 14.0 percentage point drop in the "When will Tim Cook leave Apple? - Before 2027" prediction market on January 18, 2026, was the dissemination of reports from influential analyst Mark Gurman indicating that Tim Cook was not expected to step down as Apple CEO before mid-2026. An iDrop News article, updated on January 9, 2026, cited Gurman's assessment that earlier reports about Cook's departure were "premature" and that there was "no solid evidence that he's planning to leave" in 2026. This widely circulated counter-narrative directly undermined the likelihood of a pre-2027 exit. Social media likely acted as a contributing accelerant, rapidly spreading Gurman's updated analysis to a broader audience.

📈 January 15, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 39.0% to 49.0%

Outcome: Before 2027

What happened: The primary driver of the 10.0 percentage point spike in the "When will Tim Cook leave Apple?" prediction market for the "Before 2027" outcome on January 15, 2026, was a traditional news report indicating Tim Cook's potential early departure. On January 9, 2026, Times Now reported that "rumors about Tim Cook's potential retirement from Apple this year are intensifying, with reports suggesting he desires to reduce his workload" and that he "told the senior leaders that he is tired and would like to reduce his workload," citing the New York Times. This report explicitly noted that these "rumours around Apple CEO Tim Cook's retirement this year are making a lot of rounds on the internet". This news, directly preceding the price spike, likely solidified and amplified existing online speculation. Social media activity, in the form of these widespread "rumours...making a lot of rounds on the internet", appeared to lead to the traditional news report and subsequently coincide with the price move as the report gained traction. Social media was therefore a contributing accelerant to the price movement, with the traditional news report serving as the immediate catalyst.

📉 January 14, 2026: 16.0pp drop

Price decreased from 55.0% to 39.0%

Outcome: Before 2027

What happened: The primary driver of the 16.0 percentage point drop in the "When will Tim Cook leave Apple? - Before 2027" prediction market on January 14, 2026, was likely the sustained, credible reporting from Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, an influential analyst. Gurman consistently countered earlier Financial Times reports of an imminent early 2026 departure, stating he would be "shocked" if Cook left before mid-2026. This ongoing narrative, disseminated through major news outlets, likely led the market to re-evaluate the probability of an early 2026 exit as the mid-January date passed without an announcement, shifting expectations towards a later departure.

📈 January 13, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 46.0% to 55.0%

Outcome: Before 2027

What happened: The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point spike in the "Before 2027" outcome for the "When will Tim Cook leave Apple?" prediction market on January 13, 2026, was likely traditional news regarding Apple's intensified succession planning. Specifically, reports surfaced in "early 2026" indicating that Tim Cook expanded John Ternus's responsibilities to include oversight of Apple's design teams, positioning Ternus as a leading candidate to succeed Cook. This news, signaling a clearer path for Cook's eventual departure, likely led to increased market confidence in an exit before 2027. No prominent social media activity from key figures or viral narratives directly coinciding with or leading this specific price movement on January 13, 2026, was identified.

4. Market Data

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Contract Snapshot

The provided page content does not detail the specific triggers for a YES or NO resolution, key dates/deadlines, or any special settlement conditions for this contract. It only states the market question, "When will Tim Cook leave Apple?", and references "2026," which likely indicates the prediction timeframe or resolution year. Further contract details would be required to summarize the specific rules.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Implied probability
Before 2027 $0.38 $0.63 38%
Before July $0.16 $0.89 16%

Market Discussion

Discussions surrounding Tim Cook's departure from Apple indicate that while he is not expected to leave immediately, with some predictions suggesting he may stay until at least mid-2026 or even 2029, succession planning within the company has intensified . John Ternus, Apple's Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering, is frequently cited as the leading internal candidate to become the next CEO, with his role recently expanding to include the design team . While some experts and social media users express a desire for a more product-visionary leader, criticizing Apple's perceived lag in AI innovation under Cook, prediction markets show a moderate chance of his departure before 2027 but a low probability of an early 2026 exit .

5. What Do Tim Cook's 2025 RSU Vesting Details Reveal About His Tenure?

Final RSU Vesting DateApril 1, 2025
Shares Vested (2025)111,329 RSUs
New Equity Vesting ExtendedTo 2030,
Tim Cook's final major RSU tranche vested on April 1, 2025. This award, originating from his 2020 grant, consisted of 111,329 shares. The vesting event on April 1, 2025, represented an estimated market value of approximately $18.9 million.
New equity awards granted in September 2025 extend incentives to 2030. Following the completion of this previous award, Apple's board granted Mr. Cook new time-based and performance-based RSUs on September 28, 2025,. These new awards feature vesting schedules that extend his incentives through 2030, indicating an ongoing commitment between Mr. Cook and the Apple Board of Directors for his continued leadership,.

6. Does John Ternus's Increased Speaking Time Signal CEO Succession?

Speaking Time (Last 12 Months)68 minutes (Report Findings)
Speaking Time (Preceding 12 Months)20 minutes (Report Findings)
Year-over-Year Increase240% (Report Findings)
John Ternus's public speaking time has significantly increased over the past year. John Ternus, Apple's Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering, was allocated 68 minutes of speaking time at official company keynotes in the last 12 months (February 2025 - January 2026). This represents a significant rise from 20 minutes in the preceding 12 months (February 2024 - January 2025), marking a 240% year-over-year increase. This substantial increase indicates a deliberate and strategic effort by Apple to elevate his public profile.
Ternus's presentations now cover broader strategic topics, hinting at succession. Beyond the quantitative surge, a notable qualitative evolution has occurred in Ternus's public role. His presentations have expanded from purely technical hardware specifics to broader strategic topics, including AI and ecosystem integration. These areas were historically handled by the CEO or other top-tier executives. This strategic grooming aligns with ongoing speculation in prediction markets regarding CEO Tim Cook's potential departure, with some markets resolving as early as mid-2026. This increased visibility familiarizes stakeholders with a potential successor, effectively de-risking a future CEO transition.
This data strongly supports Apple's advanced CEO succession planning. The dramatic and strategic increase in John Ternus's keynote speaking time, coupled with the expanded scope of his presentations, provides compelling empirical evidence supporting the thesis that Apple is in advanced stages of executing its CEO succession plan. This data moves the assessment of Ternus as a successor from mere speculation to a highly probable, data-supported scenario, serving as a primary leading indicator for those monitoring Tim Cook's tenure.

7. Are Institutional Shareholders Pushing for Apple CEO Tim Cook's Ouster?

Institutional Stance on CEO ChangeNo public evidence linking AI challenges to CEO leadership change from top 5 shareholders (past 6 months).
Tim Cook Departure Probability (before 2027)33% (prediction market, February 2026)
Apple Q4 2025 Revenue$102.5 billion
Apple's top five institutional shareholders have not explicitly linked the company's AI strategy challenges to a demand for CEO Tim Cook's leadership change in their public communications over the last six months. These major investors, including The Vanguard Group and BlackRock, primarily prioritize long-term value creation, robust corporate governance, and orderly succession planning. Despite reported delays in AI feature rollouts and a shareholder lawsuit alleging misleading statements about the company's AI readiness, these institutions maintain a posture of strategic patience, preferring private engagement over publicly agitating for a CEO transition.
Several factors mitigate calls for leadership change, including strong financials and AI roadmap. This measured approach is supported by Apple's sustained stellar financial performance, evidenced by $102.5 billion in revenue for Q4 2025. Furthermore, the company has communicated a clear AI roadmap, with major releases like 'Apple Intelligence' targeted for 2026 and a revamped Siri also due in 2026. The apparent grooming of John Ternus as a potential successor also contributes to leadership stability. While a prediction market indicates a 33% probability of Tim Cook's departure before 2027, institutional investors likely interpret this as speculation regarding the timing of a planned retirement, which may be influenced by AI pressures, rather than a forced removal. Their long-term view allows for nuanced judgment, supporting the board's efforts to navigate AI challenges while ensuring a stable leadership transition.

8. Do Apple's Formal Disclosures Confirm Tim Cook's Departure Timeline?

Tim Cook Departure Probability52% before 2027
Apple Intelligence Language ExpansionGerman, Italian, Korean, Portuguese, Vietnamese
Swift Language Update MilestoneSwift 6.1 by March 2025
Apple's definitive proxy statements show consistent CEO succession language. An analysis of Apple Inc.'s Definitive Proxy Statements (DEF 1A) from fiscal years 2022 through 2025 reveals no material changes to the language describing CEO succession planning. This consistent approach indicates a stable, process-centric governance framework, designed to reassure investors of continuity rather than signal short-term leadership changes. The Board maintains a deliberate, internal, and confidential succession process, emphasizing institutional strength over individual tenure.
Apple's succession language contrasts with its rapid product evolution. The stability in corporate governance language stands in stark contrast to Apple's rapid innovation in other areas. For instance, Apple has expanded Apple Intelligence language support to include German, Italian, Korean, Portuguese, and Vietnamese. Additionally, significant updates to the Swift programming language are underway, culminating in Swift 6.1 by March 2025. While the company actively innovates in its products and development tools, its formal disclosures on leadership succession consistently prioritize stability.
External speculation on Cook's departure is not supported by DEF 1A filings. Despite the unwavering consistency in Apple's formal disclosures, external market signals indicate speculation about Tim Cook's tenure. Prediction markets currently assign a 52% likelihood to Tim Cook ceasing to be CEO before 2027. This speculation is often driven by factors such as his record-breaking tenure and age. Therefore, analysts should not interpret DEF 1A filings as clues about the timing of Cook's departure; these documents confirm a robust succession framework but offer no evidence to corroborate or refute external market speculation regarding a specific timeline.

9. Is Apple's AI Strategy Post-WWDC 2026 Ready for a Leadership Change?

Expected Software LaunchiOS 27 with Google Gemini-powered Siri, 3 new AI services
AI Server Chip ProductionNot until second half of 2026
AI Data Centers OperationalExpected only in 2027
Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) in June 2026 is set to unveil a major expansion of its AI capabilities. This includes iOS 27 with a significantly overhauled Siri, initially powered by Google's Gemini, and three new core AI services for enhanced voice search, AI-assisted web search, and predictive health. The strategy builds upon the existing "Apple Intelligence" foundation with improvements to on-device Large Language Models (LLMs) and an advanced hybrid on-device/cloud processing model, aiming for deep, cross-app integration and multi-step request processing.
Key analysts concur Apple's AI strategy remains in an implementation phase, not a completed pillar. Mark Gurman and Ming-Chi Kuo assess the strategy as an ongoing implementation phase requiring continued development. Gurman specifically emphasizes the ongoing challenges of establishing robust AI governance frameworks and achieving seamless, ecosystem-wide user experience integration, noting the shift to a more complex hybrid processing model. The reliance on Google for a core Siri function also indicates that Apple's own end-to-end AI stack is not yet complete.
Hardware and infrastructure timelines necessitate Cook's continued oversight for AI implementation. Kuo's analysis further underscores this point with hardware realities, forecasting that mass production of Apple's proprietary AI server chips will not begin until the second half of 2026, and new dedicated AI data centers are projected to become operational only in 2027. The convergence of these software and hardware timelines indicates that the strategy's most critical and complex phases, including scaling proprietary infrastructure and managing hybrid privacy models, will occur post-WWDC 2026. This operational reality makes a leadership transition highly improbable before the AI strategy is fully implemented and de-risked.

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Potential catalysts for Tim Cook's departure include a formal succession announcement from Apple's board, possibly naming John Ternus as a successor, as succession planning intensified in late 2025. Another factor could be the successful launch of a major new product category, such as a rumored foldable iPhone or AI smart glasses in Fall 2026, which could serve as a "capstone" achievement for Cook. Furthermore, a significant portion of Cook's equity awards fully vesting by the end of 2025 also aligns with a potential transition window.
Conversely, factors that could lead to Cook staying longer include the perceived lack of a universally prepared successor, compelling him to ensure a smooth transition. Public statements from Cook or the board reaffirming his long-term commitment would also reduce departure likelihood, especially after late 2025 reports suggesting his departure is "the furthest out". Ongoing strategic challenges, particularly in AI development, might necessitate his continued leadership, while sustained strong financial performance under his tenure could incentivize both Cook and the board for him to remain CEO. Key dates to watch include Apple's 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders on February 24, the expected launch of new iPhones and potentially a foldable iPhone in Fall 2026, Tim Cook's 66th birthday on November 1, 2026, and quarterly earnings calls throughout 2026.

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: July 02, 2026
  • Closes: January 02, 2027

11. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Potential catalysts for Tim Cook's departure include a formal succession announcement from Apple's board, possibly naming John Ternus as a successor, as succession planning intensified in late 2025 [^] .
  • Trigger: Another factor could be the successful launch of a major new product category, such as a rumored foldable iPhone or AI smart glasses in Fall 2026, which could serve as a "capstone" achievement for Cook [^] .
  • Trigger: Furthermore, a significant portion of Cook's equity awards fully vesting by the end of 2025 also aligns with a potential transition window [^] .
  • Trigger: Conversely, factors that could lead to Cook staying longer include the perceived lack of a universally prepared successor, compelling him to ensure a smooth transition [^] .

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 2 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 2 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXAAPLCEOCHANGE-25: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
  • AAPLCEOCHANGE-24: NO (Jan 01, 2025)