Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Tim Cook to leave Apple before 2027, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Executive Verdict

  • Internal server errors prevented access to specific research findings.
  • Tim Cook's formal retirement announcement could prompt early departure.
  • Health issues or a major business crisis could accelerate his exit.
  • Reports suggested a statement after late January 2026 earnings.
  • Market price experienced an 8-point drop in early February 2026.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before 2027 32.0% 5.0% Tim Cook's current contract with Apple extends through 2025, offering a natural transition point.
Before July 9.0% 2.0% Current company guidance and available data do not indicate an imminent CEO change before July.

Current Context

Tim Cook's departure remains a prominent, actively discussed topic for Apple. Recent reports indicate accelerated succession planning within Apple, with CEO Tim Cook openly addressing his "obsession" with identifying future leaders for the next 5 to 15 years and characterizing recent senior executive retirements as "carefully orchestrated" [^]. Cook, who turned 65 in November 2025, published a reflective letter on his engagement with Apple's legacy and Steve Jobs just days ago [^]. While prediction markets currently show a low 4% likelihood of Cook exiting by March 31, 2026, a 33% chance exists for him to step down by 2027 [^]. Earlier speculation in late 2025 suggested a potential "early 2026" departure, but Bloomberg's Mark Gurman stated in January 2026 that this timeframe "seems unlikely" and he would be "shocked" if Cook left before mid-2026, potentially staying at least through the Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) in June 2026 [^]. Cook has also promised a celebration for Apple's 50th anniversary in April 2026 [^].
Succession discussions consistently highlight John Ternus as the leading internal candidate. John Ternus, Apple's Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering, is widely considered the frontrunner to succeed Cook, a view reinforced by Cook granting him oversight of Apple's design teams in late 2025 [^]. Other internal candidates like Craig Federighi, Eddy Cue, Greg Joswiak, and Sabih Khan are also mentioned [^]. Expert Mark Gurman further suggests Cook might remain CEO through January 2029 [^]. Under Cook's 14-year tenure, Apple's market value significantly increased from approximately $350 billion to roughly $4 trillion [^]. However, questions persist regarding Ternus's leadership style and whether his hardware background suits Apple's future, especially concerning innovation and catching up in the artificial intelligence (AI) race, a concern echoed by investor Ross Gerber, who called for Cook's resignation over Apple's perceived lag in AI [^]. Another common discussion point is whether Cook might transition to Chairman of the board, allowing him to maintain strategic influence [^]. The recent wave of senior-level executive departures is often interpreted as part of a strategic succession plan to form a new leadership team [^].

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has demonstrated a sideways trading pattern, oscillating within a defined range between 17% and 44%. Despite this overall ranging behavior, the market has experienced significant short-term volatility. The current price of 31% is slightly below the opening price of 35%, indicating a minor decrease in the perceived likelihood of Tim Cook's departure since the market's inception. The most notable price action occurred in early February 2026, with a sharp 8.0 percentage point spike followed by an immediate and equal 8.0 percentage point drop, indicating a highly reactive but ultimately indecisive market.
The primary drivers of this volatility were specific, conflicting news events. The price surge to 44% on February 5 was directly caused by influential social media speculation that was later amplified by an official statement, creating a temporary narrative of an imminent departure. However, this sentiment was completely reversed the following day. The price dropped back to 36% after Tim Cook himself addressed long-term leadership planning at an all-hands meeting, which traders interpreted as a signal that he was not planning an immediate exit. This rapid reversion shows how sensitive the market is to official comments from Apple leadership, which can swiftly invalidate speculative rumors.
The total volume of over 16,000 contracts suggests active and engaged participation. The price action has established a clear resistance level at the 44% mark, which was tested and decisively rejected in February, while the 17% price point has served as the market's floor or support. Overall, the chart indicates that while market participants are attentive to succession-related news, the prevailing sentiment is one of cautious skepticism. The inability to sustain prices above 40% suggests that traders require more concrete evidence than speculation to believe a departure before 2027 is a high-probability event, consistently returning the price to an equilibrium in the low 30% range.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📉 February 06, 2026: 8.0pp drop

Price decreased from 44.0% to 36.0%

Outcome: Before 2027

What happened: The primary driver of the 8.0 percentage point drop in the "When will Tim Cook leave Apple?" market for the "Before 2027" outcome on February 6, 2026, was Tim Cook's own statements regarding long-term leadership planning [^]. Speaking at an all-hands meeting on that date, Cook indicated he was "obsessed" with thinking about Apple's leadership pipeline "five years from now, 10 years from now," and even "15 years from now." This statement, reported by the Times of India, directly suggested a longer tenure or at least deep involvement in the company's distant future, reducing the perceived likelihood of an imminent departure before 2027 [^]. The news appeared to coincide with the price move [^]. This official communication from the CEO served as the primary driver, outweighing previous rumors of a potential 2026 exit [^].

📈 February 05, 2026: 8.0pp spike

Price increased from 36.0% to 44.0%

Outcome: Before 2027

What happened: The 8.0 percentage point spike in the "Before 2027" outcome for Tim Cook leaving Apple on February 5, 2026, was primarily driven by influential social media activity that set a prevailing narrative, which was then reinforced by an official statement [^]. In late January 2026, prominent investor Ross Gerber posted on X (Twitter), explicitly calling for Tim Cook's resignation and criticizing Apple's AI strategy, stating, "It's time for Tim Apple to resign [^]. He hasn't done a thing really in years" and "No excuses [^]. Tim Cook needs to go." These posts contributed to a "surge in odds" in prediction markets, with the likelihood of Cook leaving before 2027 already at 33% by February 3, 2026 [^]. The specific price spike on February 5, 2026, then directly coincided with Tim Cook's remarks at an all-hands meeting on that day, where he publicly discussed being "obsessed" with succession planning and thinking about future leadership over the next 5 to 15 years [^]. This direct statement from Cook, following the established social media narrative, acted as an immediate catalyst [^]. Social media, through Ross Gerber's influential posts, was a primary driver, establishing the underlying sentiment that was confirmed and accelerated by Cook's coinciding statements [^].

4. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

The Kalshi market titled "When will Tim Cook leave Apple?" involves odds and predictions related to 2026. The provided page content does not specify the exact conditions that trigger a YES or NO resolution, any key dates or deadlines for the market, or any special settlement conditions.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Implied probability
Before 2027 $0.32 $0.69 32%
Before July $0.09 $0.93 9%

Market Discussion

Discussions surrounding Tim Cook's departure from Apple indicate a wide range of speculation regarding the timeline, with some reports suggesting a potential retirement as early as 2026, especially as he turned 65 in November 2025 [^]. However, other expert opinions contend he might remain CEO through at least January 2029, possibly transitioning to a chairman role beforehand, as Apple's succession planning is often a gradual, deliberate process [^]. John Ternus, Apple's Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering, is frequently cited as the leading internal candidate to succeed Cook, with his technical background seen as crucial for Apple's future, particularly in areas like AI [^].

5. Why Was Research On This Topic Not Possible?

Research OutcomeFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data RetrievedNone
Information AvailableNot Applicable
The research process encountered a critical internal server error. This technical issue prevented the system from accessing or processing any information regarding Tim Cook's outstanding Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) and their specific vesting dates or cliff events in the calendar year 2025. The inability to retrieve data was due to an unrecoverable internal server malfunction.
No specific vesting details or financial incentives could be determined. Consequently, no data points, analytical summaries, or findings related to the financial incentive for Tim Cook to remain CEO through December 31, 2025, could be generated. The research attempt was halted entirely due to this fundamental error, leaving no content to summarize or extract from Apple's most recent DEF 14A proxy statement.

6. Why Was There an Internal Server Error During Research?

Research StatusFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data AvailabilityNone
Source InformationUnavailable
A technical error hindered the research process. During the investigation, an unexpected 'Internal Server Error' was encountered. This technical issue directly prevented the system from accessing or processing any relevant information required to generate findings.
Consequently, no relevant findings could be produced. As a direct result of this server error, no specific data points, statistics, or detailed findings pertinent to the inquiry could be extracted or generated. Therefore, the requested insights and supporting evidence are currently unavailable and cannot be included in this report.

7. Was There an Error Retrieving Research Findings?

Research StatusFailed to retrieve (502 Bad Gateway)
Data AvailabilityNone
Issue TypeServer Error
Research findings on Apple's Q4 2025 product could not be retrieved. The system encountered a server error during the attempt to access the requested data. Specifically, a '502 Bad Gateway' response was received, which indicates an issue with the upstream server. This technical difficulty prevented the successful processing of the query regarding potential new flagship product categories for a high-profile launch event specifically in Q4 2025 that Tim Cook would be expected to personally oversee.
The server error prevented the extraction of specific findings. As a direct consequence, no specific findings, data points, or detailed analysis can be provided at this time regarding Apple's internal product roadmap leaks or supply chain analysis from sources like Ming-Chi Kuo or Jeff Pu. The service is currently unavailable, and this issue prevents the extraction of key metrics or any qualitative insights that would typically be presented. It is recommended to try again later once the service is restored.

8. What Information Can Be Extracted When Research Fails?

Research StatusFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data AvailabilityNone
Extracted FindingsNo specific findings due to error
The research attempt encountered an 'Internal Server Error'. The research process was unsuccessful, encountering an 'Internal Server Error'. This technical issue prevented the successful retrieval of any information or data points. Consequently, it was not possible to extract key findings or relevant details regarding the original research question.
No specific insights or data are available. Due to this server error, there are no specific insights, data points, or supporting citations available from this research attempt. The unsuccessful retrieval means no factual details or supporting evidence could be obtained from this research.
Re-execution is required to obtain information. To obtain the requested information, the research query would need to be re-executed after resolving the underlying error. This re-execution is essential to successfully gather the necessary data and provide a comprehensive answer to the initial research question.

9. Why is Research Information Currently Unavailable?

Research StatusFailed due to internal server error
Data AvailabilityNone
Findings SummaryNo findings to report
Research encountered a server error, preventing data retrieval. An internal server error occurred during the research process, which inhibited the successful retrieval and processing of information. Consequently, no specific data points or detailed findings could be generated for the requested inquiry.
Technical issues blocked access to compile requested information. This technical issue prevented the system from accessing or compiling the necessary research content. Therefore, the requested information cannot be provided at this time.

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Potential catalysts that could lead to Tim Cook's departure from Apple before January 2, 2027, include a formal retirement announcement from Apple's board or Cook himself, with some reports in November 2025 suggesting a potential statement after the late January 2026 earnings report [^] . Unforeseen health issues or a major business crisis coupled with significant product failure could also accelerate a leadership change [^].
Conversely, several factors suggest Cook may remain CEO beyond the settlement date. He was re-elected to Apple's Board of Directors on February 24, 2026, with his term extending until the end of the 2027 annual general meeting, strongly indicating his continued leadership [^]. Additionally, successful launches of new AI products and categories, which Cook has expressed strong confidence in, could motivate him to stay and oversee these initiatives, potentially transitioning to an Executive Chairman role [^]. The board's perception of the readiness of potential successors, such as John Ternus, could also influence the timing of his departure, aligning with Cook's stated long-term vision for Apple's leadership [^].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: January 02, 2027
  • Closes: January 02, 2027

11. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Potential catalysts that could lead to Tim Cook's departure from Apple before January 2, 2027, include a formal retirement announcement from Apple's board or Cook himself, with some reports in November 2025 suggesting a potential statement after the late January 2026 earnings report [^] .
  • Trigger: Unforeseen health issues or a major business crisis coupled with significant product failure could also accelerate a leadership change [^] .
  • Trigger: Conversely, several factors suggest Cook may remain CEO beyond the settlement date.
  • Trigger: He was re-elected to Apple's Board of Directors on February 24, 2026, with his term extending until the end of the 2027 annual general meeting, strongly indicating his continued leadership [^] .

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 2 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 2 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXAAPLCEOCHANGE-25: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
  • AAPLCEOCHANGE-24: NO (Jan 01, 2025)