Short Answer

The model sees potential mispricing: 39° or above at 99.0% model vs 0.0% market, suggesting a strong likelihood of the NYC temperature being above 39°F given that forecasting models predict 41°F.

1. Executive Verdict

  • Consensus forecasts predict an 8pm temperature around 41°F.
  • This temperature is slightly below the March 24th daily normal of 45°F.
  • Clear skies and light winds favor the higher end of the temperature range.
  • ENSO-neutral conditions are highly probable by early 2026.
  • ECMWF SEAS5 model demonstrates superior temperature forecasting skill.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Outcome — — Insufficient data

Current Context

No historical temperature data exists for March 24, 2026, at 8 PM EDT. As of now, there is no observed temperature data available for New York City on March 24, 2026, at 8 PM EDT, as historical records do not yet exist for this future date [^]. Current weather forecasts predict the temperature to be around 41°F at that specific time, under conditions of mostly clear skies and light south winds [^]. This follows an anticipated daytime high near 47°F [^].
Prediction markets indicate a daily high between 46-47°F at LaGuardia. Analysis of prediction market trends suggests that the highest temperature for New York City on March 24, 2026, is likely to fall within the 46-47°F range at LaGuardia Airport [^].

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
No historical price data available.

3. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the temperature recorded in Central Park, New York, at 8 PM EDT on March 24, 2026, is above 44.99° Fahrenheit, and to "No" if it is 44.99° or below. The official temperature is exclusively determined by AccuWeather data from the provided portal link, overriding any other sources, and readings posted prior to the labeled hour are still considered official. The market opens at 7:00 PM EDT, closes at 8:00 PM EDT, and has a projected payout by 9:05 PM EDT on March 24, 2026.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability

Market Discussion

Forecasts indicate that the temperature in NYC on March 24, 2026, at 8 pm EDT (after sunset at 7:12 pm) is expected to be around 40-42°F, cooling from an afternoon peak [^]. The daily high is anticipated to be near 47°F, dropping to a low of 38°F overnight, with NWS and model consensus placing daily highs in the mid-40s, a few degrees below normal [^]. Prediction markets show strong support for a daily high in the 46-47°F range, consistent with these general forecasts [^].

4. What are ENSO forecasts for early 2026 and NYC March temperatures?

ENSO-neutral chance (Jan-Mar 2026)75% (Climate Prediction Center) [^], [^]
ENSO-neutral probability (Mar-May 2026)91% (IRI plume) [^]
NYC March 24th Average High Temp (1991-2020)52.9°F (Central Park) [^]
Forecasts indicate a high probability of ENSO-neutral conditions by early 2026. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) projects a transition from La Niña to an ENSO-neutral state for the January-March 2026 period, assigning a 75% chance to this outcome and noting a potential for lingering La Niña influence into early spring [^], [^]. Progressing into the spring season, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) plume further strengthens this outlook, predicting a 91% probability for ENSO-neutral conditions during March-May 2026 [^].
Specific 8 PM NYC temperature anomalies for analog years were unavailable. Research did not identify specific 8 PM temperature anomalies for New York City on March 24th during historical periods with a La Niña transitioning to neutral ENSO phase. However, general historical averages for March 24th at Central Park, New York, from 1991 to 2020, show an average high temperature of 52.9°F and an average low temperature of 37.6°F [^]. The historical temperature range for March 24th is broad, with records indicating a low high of 26°F in 1888 and a high low of 52°F in 1903 [^], [^].

5. How Does March NAO Influence NYC Cold Air Advection Frequency?

Specific NYC Cold Advection Data (40-year)No specific studies found analyzing this exact relationship (Web Research Results) [^]
Negative March NAO PhaseAssociated with stronger cold-air outbreaks and lower temperatures in Eastern US/NYC [^]
Positive March NAO PhaseTypically brings milder conditions to Eastern US/NYC [^]
Specific statistical data on March NAO and NYC cold advection is unavailable. Precise statistical data that directly analyzes the frequency of cold air advection events in New York City, defined as 8pm temperatures dropping more than 10°F below the daily high, over the past 40 years in relation to the March North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index phase, is not available in the provided web research. No studies were found that directly address this precise relationship and definition. However, general climatological research on the NAO offers strong indications of its influence on temperatures and cold air events in the Northeastern United States, including New York City.
Negative March NAO increases cold air advection likelihood in NYC. A negative phase of the NAO during March is consistently linked to an increased likelihood of stronger cold-air outbreaks, significantly lower temperatures across the eastern United States, and more frequent intrusions of polar air [^]. This phase often results in colder-than-average conditions for regions like New York City [^].
Positive March NAO generally leads to milder conditions and fewer events. Conversely, a positive March NAO phase typically corresponds with milder weather conditions for New York City and the broader Eastern U.S. [^]. Based on these well-established atmospheric teleconnections, it can be inferred that there is an inverse relationship between the March NAO phase and the frequency of cold air advection events in New York City: a negative NAO phase would likely lead to a higher frequency of such events, while a positive NAO phase would likely result in a lower frequency.

6. What is the 8pm temperature trend for Central Park, March 20-30?

8pm Temperature Trend (2011-2025)Not explicitly available [^]
Raw Hourly Temperature Data (KNYC)Available via NOAA's Integrated Surface Database (ISD) for 2011-2025 [^]
March 24 Daily Mean Normal Temp (Central Park)45°F [^]
Calculating the 2011-2025 8pm temperature trend requires data extraction. The specific linear temperature trend for the 8pm hour at the Central Park (KNYC) station between March 20-30 over the 2011-2025 period is not explicitly available in the current research. To determine this trend, raw hourly data for KNYC (station WBAN 94728, USAF 725033) would need to be extracted from NOAA's Integrated Surface Database (ISD) [^]. This process would involve gathering approximately 11 daily 8:00 PM EDT observations for each year within the 2011-2025 timeframe, accumulating up to 165 data points. A linear regression analysis would then be performed on this collected data to establish the trend [^].
Official 1991-2020 hourly climate normals are available for comparison. The official 1991-2020 U.S. Hourly Climate Normals for KNYC are accessible from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) [^]. While specific 8pm values for March 20-30 are not directly quoted in the research, these hourly normals can be derived from the available NCEI data [^]. For broader context, the daily mean normal temperature for March 24 at Central Park is 45°F [^]. A direct comparison of any derived 2011-2025 temperature trend with these 1991-2020 climatological normals necessitates the prior calculation of the 2011-2025 trend.

7. What Is NYC's Late March 8pm Temperature with Specific Snow Cover?

Stratified NYC 8pm TempNot available for late March based on specific snow cover conditions [Web Research Results] [^]
Unstratified NYC 8pm TempApproximately 45°F in late March [Web Research Results, 3] [^]
General NYC Late March RangeHighs around 52°F, lows around 38°F [^]
Specific New York City 8pm temperatures remain unquantified based on regional snow cover. Detailed average 8pm temperatures in New York City for historical late March periods, specifically stratified by above- or below-average snow cover extent across southern Canada and New England on March 1st, are not available from the consulted web research. While extensive Northern Hemisphere and regional snow cover data exist from sources like the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, dating back to 1967, these resources do not offer specific subsets for "southern Canada and New England" as a combined region [^]. Furthermore, years are not categorized as above or below average for that precise area in a manner directly correlatable with specific New York City temperatures at a given time [^].
General research connects snow cover trends to broader regional temperature changes. Studies indicate a relationship between snow cover and temperature in the Northeast U.S., suggesting that decreasing snow cover can accelerate warming trends [^]. However, these studies do not provide quantitative average 8pm temperatures specifically for New York City, stratified by antecedent snow cover conditions [^]. For general context, unstratified average temperatures in New York City during late March typically show highs around 52°F and lows around 38°F [^]. Hourly temperatures near 8pm in late March average approximately 45°F, but this figure is not adjusted for the specified snow cover extent in preceding periods [^].

8. Which Seasonal Temperature Forecast Models Are Most Reliable?

Top Skill Model for 2m TemperatureECMWF SEAS5 [^]
ECMWF SEAS5 Feb 2026 Forecast ReleaseFebruary 5, 2026 [^]
NOAA/CPC Feb 2026 Outlook ReleaseFebruary 19, 2026 [^]
ECMWF SEAS5 consistently exhibits superior 2-meter temperature forecasting skill. For 3-month lead times impacting the Northeastern US, particularly for the March-April-May 2026 period, the ECMWF SEAS5 system is widely recognized for its high global skill and robustness in predicting 2-meter temperature anomalies [^]. While NOAA's Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) and the UK Met Office's GloSea6 system also contribute to global seasonal forecasting [^], the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), which integrates CFSv2, generally improves upon individual model skill. However, SEAS5 frequently demonstrates superior overall performance in 2-meter temperature forecasting in comparative analyses [^].
Key model release dates catalyze significant market repricing. Critical release dates in late 2025 and early 2026 are expected to drive market repricing based on temperature predictions. The ECMWF SEAS5 model typically releases its monthly forecasts around the 5th of each month [^]. Key releases include December 5, 2025, for the January-February-March (JFM) 2026 outlook; January 5, 2026, for February-March-April (FMA) 2026; and February 5, 2026, for March-April-May (MAM) 2026. Similarly, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) provides long-lead outlooks, incorporating CFSv2 and NMME, with important release dates scheduled for December 18, 2025 (for JFM 2026); January 15, 2026 (for FMA 2026); and February 19, 2026 (for MAM 2026) [^]. The UK Met Office's GloSea6 system offers weekly updates, and its monthly summaries, crucial for broader seasonal assessments, are generally available early each month, providing additional data [^].

9. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The current market probability for a high of 46-47°F in NYC on March 24, 2026, stands at 49%, reflecting confidence anchored by consensus from NWS, GFS, and ECMWF models [^] . Trading Odds & Predictions (Mar. 24, 2026) | Polymarket">[^]. Factors supporting this bullish sentiment include forecasts for mostly clear skies throughout the day and light south winds, transitioning to light northwest winds, which are conducive to achieving the higher end of the expected temperature range [^]. The daytime high is projected to reach 46-47°F, peaking between 2-4 PM EDT.
Conversely, potential bearish catalysts include a colder-than-expected start to the day or the formation of unexpected cloud cover, which could suppress temperatures and shift probabilities towards lower ranges like 44-45°F [^] . Recent updates have already trimmed probabilities for higher temperatures (48-49°F). The market will resolve at the end of day on March 24, 2026, based on data from Wunderground KLGA, while the broader NWS forecast remains valid through March 30.

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: March 25, 2026
  • Expiration: April 01, 2026
  • Closes: March 25, 2026

10. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: The current market probability for a high of 46-47°F in NYC on March 24, 2026, stands at 49%, reflecting confidence anchored by consensus from NWS, GFS, and ECMWF models [^] .
  • Trigger: Factors supporting this bullish sentiment include forecasts for mostly clear skies throughout the day and light south winds, transitioning to light northwest winds, which are conducive to achieving the higher end of the expected temperature range [^] .
  • Trigger: The daytime high is projected to reach 46-47°F, peaking between 2-4 PM EDT.
  • Trigger: Conversely, potential bearish catalysts include a colder-than-expected start to the day or the formation of unexpected cloud cover, which could suppress temperatures and shift probabilities towards lower ranges like 44-45°F [^] .

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXTEMPNYCH-26MAR2418-T47.99: NO (Mar 24, 2026)
  • KXTEMPNYCH-26MAR2418-T46.99: NO (Mar 24, 2026)
  • KXTEMPNYCH-26MAR2418-T45.99: YES (Mar 24, 2026)
  • KXTEMPNYCH-26MAR2418-T44.99: YES (Mar 24, 2026)
  • KXTEMPNYCH-26MAR2418-T43.99: YES (Mar 24, 2026)