Highest temperature in Miami on Apr 12, 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect the highest temperature in Miami on April 12, 2026, to be between 81° and 82°, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Miami's normal April high temperature (1991-2020) is 83.1°F.
- Specific long-range weather forecasts for April 12, 2026, are unavailable.
- ENSO probabilities and AMO projections for 2026 are currently unknown.
- Large-scale atmospheric patterns for April 2026 are not yet predicted.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81° to 82° | 65.0% | 65.8% | This range is slightly below Miami's 83.1°F climatological average high for April. |
| 79° to 80° | 14.0% | 14.5% | This range is moderately below Miami's 83.1°F climatological average high for April. |
| 83° to 84° | 14.0% | 14.5% | This range centers on Miami's 83.1°F climatological average high for April. |
| 77° to 78° | 2.0% | 2.1% | This range is significantly below Miami's 83.1°F climatological average high for April. |
| 85° or above | 2.0% | 2.1% | This outcome is above Miami's 83.1°F climatological average high for April. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
Based on the chart data, this market has exhibited a stable, sideways trend within a very narrow range. The price began at 2.0% and subsequently fell to 1.0%, where it has remained. The overall price action has been confined between these two points, establishing 2.0% as an early resistance level and 1.0% as the current support. Given the lack of any provided news or external developments, the initial drop from 2.0% to 1.0% cannot be attributed to a specific catalyst. Instead, it likely represents the market's initial price discovery phase as the first traders established a baseline probability for the event.
Total trading volume is modest at 806 contracts, and the sample data indicates that activity may have declined after the initial price was set. This pattern of low and potentially decreasing volume suggests a lack of strong conviction or significant new interest in the market. The early trades established the price, but there has been little subsequent activity to challenge this level. The market appears to have reached an early consensus without significant ongoing debate or capital flowing in to shift the price.
The market sentiment is clearly and consistently bearish regarding the probability of the event occurring. The price has remained stable at an extremely low probability of 1.0% to 2.0%, indicating that participants overwhelmingly believe the temperature in Miami will not exceed the threshold specified by the contract on the resolution date. The sideways movement and low volume reinforce this view, suggesting a stable consensus with no current momentum to drive the price higher.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: 83° to 84°
📉 April 12, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 20.0% to 12.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: 79° to 80°
📉 April 11, 2026: 17.0pp drop
Price decreased from 29.0% to 12.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if the highest temperature recorded at Miami International Airport on April 12, 2026, is between 81-82°F, and "No" otherwise. The official outcome is determined exclusively by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily) for Miami, noting that preliminary NWS data may involve rounding or conversion nuances. Trading for this market concludes at 11:59 PM ET on April 12, 2026, with projected payouts occurring one hour after the market closes following data release.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81° to 82° | $0.68 | $0.35 | 65% |
| 79° to 80° | $0.16 | $0.85 | 14% |
| 83° to 84° | $0.14 | $0.87 | 14% |
| 77° to 78° | $0.03 | $0.98 | 2% |
| 85° or above | $0.03 | $0.98 | 2% |
| 76° or below | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. How Do ENSO Phases Affect Miami April Temperatures?
| MAM 2026 ENSO Probabilities | Specific probabilities for El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral conditions to be inserted from sources [^]. |
|---|---|
| El Niño Miami April Minimums | Generally associated with warmer than average minimum temperatures in spring [^]. |
| La Niña Miami April Minimums | Generally associated with colder than average daily minimum temperatures in early spring, little effect on maximum temperatures [^]. |
NOAA's CPC provides probabilities for March-May 2026 ENSO conditions. According to the Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) January 2026 outlook, the specific probabilities for El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral conditions during the March-April-May (MAM) 2026 season are to be inserted from sources [^]. Historically, April temperatures in Miami, and across the Southeastern United States, show a correlation with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, specifically El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral conditions [^].
El Niño conditions typically bring warmer minimum temperatures to Miami. During El Niño in spring, the region, including Miami, generally experiences daily minimum temperatures that are consistently warmer than average. Maximum temperatures, however, tend to exhibit regional variability under El Niño's influence [^].
Conversely, La Niña brings colder minimums, while Neutral conditions yield average temperatures. La Niña conditions in early spring generally lead to colder than average daily minimum temperatures, while having little discernible effect on maximum temperatures in the area [^]. In the absence of a strong ENSO signal, during Neutral conditions, daily temperatures in Miami for April are more likely to be closer to their climatological averages, as the atmospheric teleconnections that often drive stronger temperature anomalies are less pronounced [^].
6. What is the Current Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Phase?
| AMO Index (July 2024) | 0.088 (warm phase) [^] |
|---|---|
| 2-Year AMO Projection | Not available in provided sources [^] |
| Normal April High Miami | 83.1 °F (1991-2020) [^] |
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation currently shows a warm phase. For July 2024, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index was recorded at 0.088, indicating the AMO is in a warm, or positive, phase [^]. However, a specific 2-year projection for the AMO index is not available within the provided research sources [^].
Miami's normal April high temperature is 83.1 °F. The normal daily maximum temperature for Miami in April, based on data from 1991-2020, is 83.1 °F [^]. To analyze the correlation with a warm AMO phase, the 10 most recent consecutive years with a positive April AMO index were identified as 2015 through 2024 [^].
Calculating Miami's temperature deviation is currently not possible. Despite identifying the relevant years with a similar AMO phase, the specific daily or monthly high temperatures for Miami during April for these individual years are not provided in the research [^]. Consequently, the average deviation from the normal April high temperature for Miami during these 10 years cannot be calculated with the currently available information.
7. Can a Miami high temperature for April 12, 2026, be projected?
| Projected High Temperature for April 12, 2026 | Not available (linear regression analysis not performed) [^] |
|---|---|
| Historical Data Needed | 30 years (1996-2025) of April 12th daily high temperatures [^] |
| Primary Data Source for Historical Data | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Climate Data Online (CDO) [^] |
The requested temperature projection for 2026 is not available. A linear regression analysis for April 12th high-temperature data at Miami International Airport (KMIA) projecting for 2026 was not found within the provided web research. Consequently, a specific numerical projection cannot be provided based on this research alone [^]. To determine such a projection, historical daily high-temperature data would first require extraction and analysis [^].
Performing this analysis requires specific historical daily temperature data. It would be necessary to extract the official daily high-temperature data for April 12th for the past 30 years, specifically from 1996 to 2025. This historical data for KMIA, identifiable by its station ID GHCND:USW00012839 [^], is typically accessible from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), often through their Climate Data Online (CDO) platform [^]. While NCEI's "Climate at a Glance" tool provides aggregated data, raw daily summaries are essential for obtaining specific daily high temperatures over a custom period [^].
Once compiled, the data could reveal a projected temperature. After compiling 30 years of April 12th high-temperature data, a linear regression could be applied to identify any existing temperature trend over that period. This trend could then be extrapolated to project a high temperature for April 12, 2026. However, the provided web research and available sources do not include the performed linear regression analysis or the projected temperature value [^].
8. Can April 2026 Large-Scale Atmospheric Patterns Be Predicted?
| April 2026 PNA/NAO Projections | Not explicitly detailed by long-range models [^] |
|---|---|
| Identification of Analog Years | Not possible due to lack of pattern projections [^] |
| Specific April 12 Miami Temperatures | Cannot be provided without analog years [^] |
Specific atmospheric pattern forecasts for April 2026 are currently unavailable. The available web research does not explicitly detail the projected large-scale atmospheric patterns, such as the Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), for April 2026 as forecasted by long-range models like the CFSv2 [^]. While sources offer general information on CFSv2 seasonal forecasts and temperature anomalies for the Feb-Apr 2026 period [^], they lack the specific phase or strength of key teleconnection patterns needed to identify historical analogs.
Miami's April 12 temperatures cannot be determined for analog years without this information. Without specific details regarding the projected large-scale atmospheric patterns for April 2026, it is not possible to accurately identify historical analog years since 1990 that would best match these future conditions. Consequently, the request to provide the exact high temperatures on April 12 in Miami during such specific analog years cannot be fulfilled. Although historical Miami temperature data [^] and archives of historical indices exist [^], the crucial forecast of future atmospheric patterns is missing [^].
9. When Do NOAA and ECMWF Release April 2026 Temperature Outlooks?
| NOAA April 30-day Outlook | March 20, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| NOAA April-June Seasonal Outlook | March 19, 2026 [^] |
| ECMWF March Seasonal Forecast (for April) | Around March 8, 2026 [^] |
NOAA's CPC provides multiple temperature outlooks for April 12, 2026. The 30-day temperature outlook for April 2026 will be released by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on March 20, 2026 [^]. Additionally, several seasonal (90-day) outlooks that include April are issued: the February-April outlook on January 19, 2026; the March-May outlook on February 19, 2026; and the April-June outlook on March 19, 2026 [^].
ECMWF issues both seasonal and monthly forecasts covering April 12, 2026. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) releases its seasonal forecasts with an initial date of the 1st of each month, generally around the 8th of that month [^]. Therefore, seasonal forecasts initiated on January 1, February 1, and March 1, 2026, and released approximately on January 8, February 8, and March 8, 2026, respectively, would encompass April 12, 2026 [^]. ECMWF also conducts monthly forecasts twice a week, and those initiated in late March or early April 2026 would also provide coverage for April 12, 2026 [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: April 13, 2026
- Expiration: April 19, 2026
- Closes: April 13, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 16 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXHIGHMIA-26APR10-T83: NO (Apr 11, 2026)
- KXHIGHMIA-26APR10-T76: NO (Apr 11, 2026)
- KXHIGHMIA-26APR10-B82.5: YES (Apr 11, 2026)
- KXHIGHMIA-26APR10-B80.5: NO (Apr 11, 2026)
- KXHIGHMIA-26APR10-B78.5: NO (Apr 11, 2026)
Get Real-Time Research Updates
Sign up for early access to live reports, historical data, and AI-powered market insights delivered to your inbox.
