How high will XRP get in February?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect XRP to reach above $1.70 in February, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- XRP ETF inflows are significantly outweighed by major supply outflows.
- XRP Ledger daily payment volume sharply declined by 90% in early February.
- XRP derivatives show bearish sentiment with consistently negative funding rates.
- Ripple released 1 billion XRP from escrow, increasing supply as scheduled.
- The new XRP Ledger Permissioned DEX shows no significant high-profile activity.
- Spot XRP ETFs saw over $1.3 billion in cumulative inflows by mid-February.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $1.70 | 19.0% | 18.0% | Positive market sentiment from a general crypto uptrend could push prices higher. |
| Above $2.00 | 9.0% | 4.5% | A significant bullish breakout in the wider cryptocurrency market could occur. |
| Above $1.80 | 11.0% | 9.5% | Anticipation of favorable legal developments for Ripple could fuel a price rally. |
| Above $2.40 | 7.0% | 3.3% | A definitive legal victory for Ripple could trigger an exceptional price appreciation event. |
| Above $1.90 | 11.0% | 9.0% | Increased utility and adoption of the XRP Ledger could drive significant demand. |
Current Context
XRP navigates price volatility amidst recent positive institutional and regulatory catalysts. Currently trading around $1.41 to $1.48, XRP has seen a significant downturn, dropping over 60% from its all-time high of $3.84 in January 2026 and experiencing a more than 30% crash in February 2026 [^]. Despite this, several key developments offer potential support: Deutsche Bank is expanding its use of Ripple’s payment infrastructure, and Ripple has partnered with Aviva Investors for tokenization on the XRP Ledger [^]. U.S. spot XRP ETFs, approved in November 2025, have recorded over $1.3 billion in cumulative net inflows, with a notable streak of over 24 consecutive days of inflows, indicating strong institutional interest [^]. Regulatory clarity improved with the SEC lawsuit settlement in August 2025, which ruled XRP is not a security when sold on secondary markets, and the White House’s "Clarity Act" statement is seen as a move towards clear regulatory frameworks [^]. The XRP Ledger also recently activated the "Permissioned DEX" amidst discussions on Ripple's focus on tokenization [^]. However, payment activity has reportedly plummeted by almost 90% in the last two weeks after a brief surge [^]. XRP's market capitalization ranges from approximately $88.8 billion to $90.16 billion, with a circulating supply of 60.9 billion XRP [^].
Expert predictions for XRP in February generally anticipate consolidation, not a major breakout. Most AI models, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, and Grok, forecast XRP to trade between $1.50 and $1.90 for February 2026, citing historical February weakness and macroeconomic uncertainty, though ChatGPT’s base case is slightly higher at $2.10-$2.60 [^]. Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick recently revised his end-2026 target for XRP from $8 down to $2.80 due to short-term market conditions and reduced liquidity, while more conservative 2026 estimates from CoinCodex and DigitalCoinPrice are around $2.40-$3.00 [^]. Long-term bullish outlooks from experts like Remi speculate XRP could reach $10,000, and potentially $100,000, if the XRPL becomes the dominant network for tokenizing critical real-world assets, though most analysts consider $100 an extremely long-term target, likely not before 2035-2040 [^]. Conversely, some analysts, such as those at Motley Fool, suggest XRP might fall to $1 or lower in 2026 due to structural issues like competition from stablecoins and limited native smart contract support [^]. Market technician EGRAG Crypto also presented a model suggesting a bottom near $0.78 [^]. Key technical levels being monitored include immediate support around $1.43, $1.45, $1.50, $1.55, $1.69, and $1.71, with resistance levels identified at $1.62-$1.68, $1.97, $2.00, $2.05, $2.0855, $2.10, $2.11, $2.15, $2.30, $2.41, and $2.50 [^]. The sustained ETF inflows are seen as providing a price floor [^].
XRP's February performance faces historical headwinds amidst broader market uncertainty. A common concern is "How high will XRP get in February?", with analysts providing varying short-term predictions, mostly within the $1.40 - $2.60 range, leaning towards consolidation rather than a major breakout [^]. Investors are also questioning if XRP will break its "February Curse," as it has historically performed poorly in this month, recording losses in 7 of 11 Februarys since 2014, with an average 3% monthly decline [^]. Despite positive catalysts like ETF inflows and regulatory clarity, the more than 30% crash in February 2026 leads to debates on whether the curse persists or if new institutional demand can establish a floor [^]. There is ongoing discussion about XRP’s long-term potential and viability, particularly concerning its role in cross-border payments, tokenization of real-world assets, and its ability to compete with other blockchain platforms and stablecoins [^]. Broader macroeconomic headwinds also contribute to volatility, with the cryptocurrency market experiencing "extreme fear" in February 2026, and Bitcoin's weakness impacting XRP's performance [^]. Upcoming events include the global virtual XRP Community Day 2026, held on February 11th and 12th, which focused on XRP's utility and ecosystem evolution [^], and a local XRP community meetup at ETHDenver on February 18, 2026 [^]. The progress of the "Clarity Act" in the U.S. Senate is also closely watched for its potential to reduce legal risks for cryptocurrencies like XRP [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
The prediction market for "How high will XRP get in February?" has demonstrated a significant and sustained bearish trend. Opening with a high probability of 76.0%, the market's perceived likelihood of a high XRP price has collapsed to its current level of 18.0%. This steep decline was marked by several sharp, event-driven price movements. A brief but powerful rally on February 14 saw a 19.0 percentage point spike, fueled by positive news regarding a Ripple partnership. However, this optimism was quickly overwhelmed by a series of negative catalysts. A consistent sell-off began with a 9.0pp drop on February 12 following reports of declining network activity. This was accelerated by a price target downgrade from Standard Chartered on February 16 (9.0pp drop), negative sentiment from influential analysts on February 17 (11.0pp drop), and broader market fears of rate hikes following Federal Reserve minutes on February 18 (8.0pp drop), collectively pushing the probability to its current lows.
Analysis of the trading data reveals significant market participation, with over 40,000 contracts traded. Volume appears to have increased later in the period, suggesting rising conviction among participants as the February resolution date nears. The price chart shows that the 46.0% level acted as a key resistance point that rejected the mid-month rally, while the mid-20% range served as a volatile support/resistance zone before breaking down. The current price near 18.0% is probing the lower end of its recent trading range. The overwhelming sentiment reflected in this market is bearish. Despite a backdrop of positive fundamental news for XRP, such as strong ETF inflows and new partnerships, traders in this market have consistently reacted more strongly to negative short-term news and macroeconomic pressures, pricing in a very low probability of XRP reaching a significant high in February.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above $1.80
📉 February 18, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 22.0% to 11.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 11.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market for XRP reaching "Above $1.80" on February 18, 2026, was likely the traditional news concerning the Federal Reserve minutes, which stirred talk of rate hikes and led to a broader crypto market slide [^]. This macroeconomic news caused XRP's price to drop approximately 4% within 24 hours and affected overall risk appetite [^]. Concurrently, Standard Chartered revised its year-end XRP price target down by 65% to $2.80, with an expectation of "further declines near-term," which contributed to a more cautious market outlook for XRP reaching higher immediate targets [^]. Social media activity, while present with positive sentiment from Ripple's CEO and mentions of increasing advisor interest, did not appear to be the primary driver of this specific price drop [^]. In conclusion, social media was (d) irrelevant as a negative driver; the primary driver was (b) contributing accelerant through traditional news and analyst revisions [^].
Outcome: Above $1.70
📉 February 17, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 35.0% to 24.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 11.0 percentage point drop in the "Above $1.70" prediction market for XRP on February 17, 2026, appears to be bearish social media sentiment from influential analysts, strongly reinforced by a significant downgrade from a major financial institution [^]. Renowned on-chain analyst Ali Martinez described the 2-week XRP candle closure as a "gravestone doji," a bearish technical pattern that previously led to a 46% price drop, with this analysis appearing on February 17, 2026 [^]. This social media-driven technical warning coincided with the price movement and was amplified by Standard Chartered cutting its end-2026 XRP price forecast from $8 to $2.80, significantly weakening the near-term bullish narrative [^]. Additionally, market structure factors, such as XRP whales offloading approximately 50 million tokens, contributed to selling pressure and confirmed a decisively bearish price structure on the same day [^]. Social media was a contributing accelerant, with traditional news and market structure factors providing the primary fundamental and technical pressure [^].
📉 February 16, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 43.0% to 34.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point drop in the XRP prediction market on February 16, 2026, for the "Above $1.70" outcome was a significant downgrade in XRP's price target by Standard Chartered bank [^]. On or around February 16, Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, cut the bank's end-2026 XRP target from $8 to $2.80, citing a "capitulation-prone" environment, persistent institutional outflows, and cooled exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows [^]. This major revision from a prominent financial institution directly impacted market expectations and investor sentiment, coinciding with a reported 11.12% one-day drop for XRP [^]. Additionally, XRP's inability to sustain an earlier rally driven by news of Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse's appointment to the CFTC's Innovation Advisory Committee contributed to the decline, with the market exhibiting a "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction due to technical weakness and profit-taking [^]. Social media activity, while present, was not identified as a primary driver, with no specific viral negative narratives or key influencer posts preceding or directly causing this particular price movement [^]. Social media was mostly noise or irrelevant in driving this specific price move [^].
📈 February 14, 2026: 19.0pp spike
Price increased from 27.0% to 46.0%
What happened: The 19.0 percentage point spike in the "How high will XRP get in February [^]? Above $1.70" prediction market on February 14, 2026, was primarily driven by a confluence of positive news and amplified social media activity directly addressing price targets [^]. Traditional news, such as Ripple's partnership with Aviva Investors to tokenize funds on the XRP Ledger and encouraging US inflation data leading to a broader crypto market rally, provided underlying bullish sentiment [^]. This was significantly accelerated by social media discussions, including posts on Binance Square on February 14th explicitly highlighting a "Bullish case: Break above $1.70" for XRP and circulating high price predictions from AI models for 2026 [^]. This social media activity appeared to coincide with and amplify the positive market sentiment, directly influencing the prediction market's price for the "Above $1.70" outcome [^]. Consequently, social media acted as a contributing accelerant, capitalizing on and amplifying traditional news to drive speculative interest [^].
📉 February 12, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 29.0% to 20.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 9.0 percentage point drop in the "Above $1.70" outcome for XRP in the prediction market on February 12, 2026, was a significant decline in Ripple (XRP) network activity [^]. Active addresses on the XRP network plummeted by 26% between February 12 and 15, signaling weakening demand and investor interest, which directly reduced confidence in XRP reaching a higher price target [^]. This market structure factor coincided with the prediction market movement, overshadowing the positive news of Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse's appointment to the CFTC's Innovation Advisory Committee on February 12, which failed to sustain an XRP rally above $1.66 [^]. Social media activity from Ripple's CTO on the same day, criticizing Bitcoin's technology, was largely irrelevant to XRP's specific price prediction [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The provided page content, "How high will XRP get in February? Odds & Predictions", is a market title/question and does not contain the specific rules for YES/NO resolution, key dates, or special settlement conditions. Therefore, these details cannot be extracted from the given text.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $1.70 | $0.19 | $0.83 | 19% |
| Above $1.80 | $0.11 | $0.92 | 11% |
| Above $1.90 | $0.11 | $0.93 | 11% |
| Above $2.00 | $0.09 | $1.00 | 9% |
| Above $2.10 | $0.07 | $1.00 | 7% |
| Above $2.20 | $0.07 | $1.00 | 7% |
| Above $2.30 | $0.07 | $0.96 | 7% |
| Above $2.40 | $0.07 | $1.00 | 7% |
Market Discussion
Discussions and debates regarding XRP's potential price in February 2026 are largely split between cautious short-term outlooks and optimistic long-term projections, despite a historically weak February performance for the asset [^]. Many analysts and AI models predict XRP will trade within a tight range, generally between $1.40 and $1.90, with some emphasizing deeper losses below key support levels due to weak momentum and macroeconomic headwinds [^]. Conversely, bullish arguments highlight the stabilizing effect of regulatory clarity following the SEC lawsuit, sustained institutional inflows into U.S [^].
5. How Do XRP ETF Inflows Compare with Whale and Exchange Outflows?
| Total Net XRP ETF Inflows | $485.7 million (601.5 million XRP) [^] |
|---|---|
| Whale Distribution Volume | 550 million XRP [^] |
| Net Exchange Outflows (Binance & Bybit) | 1.15 billion XRP [^] |
XRP ETF inflows are significantly outweighed by large-scale supply. Major spot XRP Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) attracted a combined $485.7 million in net inflows during February 2026, leading to the acquisition of approximately 601.5 million XRP [^]. However, this demand was heavily contested by substantial supply-side pressure from existing large holders and exchanges. A cohort of pre-2025 whale wallets moved 550 million XRP towards OTC desks and exchange deposit wallets, indicating distribution activities [^]. Concurrently, Binance and Bybit collectively recorded a net outflow of 1.15 billion XRP over the same period, considerably surpassing the volume absorbed by the new ETF products [^].
A substantial supply-side overhang is hindering XRP's price appreciation. This dynamic indicates that approximately 2.8 units of XRP became potentially liquid for every one unit absorbed by ETFs from these specific large-scale sources [^]. A moderate positive correlation of +0.42 was observed between daily ETF net inflows and XRP's daily price change, suggesting that while ETF demand is a factor, significant counter-pressure is limiting substantial price appreciation. The market has thus maintained a tense equilibrium, absorbing nearly $500 million in new demand while weathering over $1 billion in potential selling pressure from these combined sources [^].
XRP's price is expected to remain range-bound short-term. The analyst's base case predicts a continued range-bound grind with an upward bias, potentially testing the $0.90-$0.92 range. However, a sustained breakout above this level is deemed unlikely until the intensity of whale distribution visibly subsides [^]. This scenario highlights a current market balance between new institutional demand and existing large-holder supply.
6. What Caused XRP's Recent Payment Volume Drop and Its Market Impact?
| XRP Payment Volume Drop | Approximately 90% decline in daily volume [^] |
|---|---|
| Active Addresses Decline | ~16.3% from Q4 2025 average (41,000 in Feb 2026) [^] |
| Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) | 0.96, indicating panic selling [^] |
The XRP Ledger experienced a sudden, severe 90% decline in daily payment volume during early February 2026, falling from multi-billion XRP peaks to baseline levels [^] . This substantial reduction in both transaction size and count was accompanied by a comparatively smaller 16.3% decline in active addresses, which stood at approximately 41,000 as of February 18, 2026 [^]. This divergence suggests the volume reduction was primarily concentrated among a few high-activity institutional wallets or On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) partners, rather than indicating a widespread departure of retail users from the network [^].
This volume contraction coincided with a 30% XRP price crash and a Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) of 0.96, signaling panic selling and market capitulation [^] . However, the situation is complex due to several emerging bullish catalysts, including major regulatory clarity from the concluded SEC lawsuit, the pending Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act, and Ripple's progress toward securing a National Bank Charter. Furthermore, on-chain data indicates an increase in 'millionaire wallets' and 'smart money' holdings, suggesting accumulation by sophisticated entities amidst the recent volatility.
The dramatic volume drop creates a bearish narrative, but its concentrated nature, coupled with strong fundamental tailwinds and evidence of long-term accumulation, suggests potential for a sharp price reversal. The market may be under-pricing these positive long-term developments due to the immediate shock of the volume and price decline. The resolution likely hinges on whether sentiment shifts from the short-term volume shock to the more structural positive catalysts on the horizon, with AI models projecting a range primarily between $1.40 and $1.90 for February 2026.
7. What Are XRP's Key Liquidation Levels and Funding Rate Trends?
| Major Short Liquidation Cluster | $1.68 [^] |
|---|---|
| Immediate Short Liquidation Range | $1.432 - $1.576 [^] |
| Primary Long Liquidation Zone | $1.406 - $1.394 [^] |
The XRP derivatives market in February 2026 exhibits bearish sentiment and short squeeze potential. Consistently negative funding rates across major exchanges signal pervasive bearish sentiment in this market, where short position holders frequently pay long position holders [^]. This condition establishes classic preconditions for a potential short squeeze, indicating significant clusters of short-side liquidation liquidity exist just above current price levels [^]. An upward price movement in this environment could trigger a cascade of forced buying, fueling such a squeeze.
Critical liquidation clusters define key XRP volatility zones. Significant short-side liquidation clusters are identified from $1.432 to $1.576, with a major resistance level at $1.68 [^]. Breaching this $1.68 resistance could significantly fuel a short squeeze. Conversely, substantial long liquidation clusters are located below $1.406, extending down to $1.334, representing key downside risks [^]. These defined zones highlight a high potential for volatility; a move towards $1.43 could act as a catalyst for a short squeeze, while a break below $1.40 might trigger a long-side liquidation cascade.
8. How Do XRP Escrow Releases Compare to U.S. Spot ETF Inflows?
| Monthly Escrow Release | 1,000,000,000 XRP on Feb 1, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Operational XRP Transfer | Approximately 300 million XRP [^] |
| Total Escrow Balance | Approximately 33.9 billion XRP [^] |
Ripple maintained a structured XRP distribution strategy in February 2026, releasing 1 billion XRP from escrow as scheduled on February 1 [^] . Of this total, approximately 300 million XRP were transferred to Ripple's operational wallet for strategic Over-the-Counter (OTC) sales, while the remaining 700 million XRP were returned to new escrow contracts [^]. This approach aligns with Ripple's evolved sales strategy since Q4 2019, which prioritizes institutional OTC partnerships over programmatic sales on open exchanges to build utility and minimize direct market impact [^]. As of February 2026, Ripple's escrow accounts still held approximately 33.9 billion XRP, indicating a substantial long-term supply mechanism [^].
U.S. spot XRP Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) introduced significant but volatile institutional demand during February. Early in the month, ETF inflows were strong, nearly offsetting Ripple's potential daily distributions. However, demand sharply declined in the second week, leading to a substantial supply overhang where ETF demand proved insufficient to counteract the potential supply from Ripple's distributions. This resulted in a notable shift from a near-equilibrium market to one dominated by supply.
The XRP market reflects a dynamic interplay between supply and demand, illustrating a 'tug-of-war' between Ripple's consistent, predictable supply and the sentiment-driven, volatile demand from institutional ETF products. Market price action is consequently caught between these two influential forces. A critical upcoming catalyst for the market balance is the pending SEC decision on the T. Rowe Price spot XRP ETF application, expected by February 26, which is anticipated to significantly influence market dynamics for the remainder of the month and beyond.
9. Is XRP Ledger's Permissioned DEX Driving XRP Price in February 2026?
| Permissioned DEX Activation | February 18, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| US Spot XRP ETFs Cumulative Inflows | Over $1.3 billion [^] |
| Société Générale EURCV Circulating Supply | Approximately 70 million tokens [^] |
The newly activated XRP Ledger Permissioned DEX shows no high-profile activity. The XRP Ledger's Permissioned Decentralized Exchange (DEX) officially became active on February 18, 2026 [^]. However, as of this report, it has not yet onboarded any high-profile projects that generate significant transaction volume, with initial activity limited to test or demonstration trades [^]. All observable DEX activity is currently dominated by the open, public XRPL DEX, indicating that the new permissioned functionality's impact on the February 2026 market is primarily narrative-driven, lacking actual transactional volume [^]. Strategic partnerships with major firms like Deutsche Bank and Aviva Investors are progressing, but these initiatives focus on broader infrastructure integration and asset tokenization, not immediate deployment on the Permissioned DEX [^]. Any significant transaction volume from these partnerships on the Permissioned DEX is unlikely before mid-to-late 2027, due to the complexities of regulatory compliance and technical integration [^].
Broader institutional adoption and external factors drive XRP value. While institutional adoption of the XRP Ledger continues, as exemplified by Société Générale's launch of a MiCA-compliant euro stablecoin (EURCV) with a circulating supply of approximately 70 million tokens, this initiative operates independently of the new Permissioned DEX feature [^]. The significant XRP price volatility and upward movements observed in February 2026 are primarily attributable to external factors. Notably, the introduction of U.S. spot XRP Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in November 2025 has attracted over $1.3 billion in cumulative inflows [^]. Additionally, the resolution of the Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit in August 2025, which confirmed XRP is not a security on public exchanges, removed a major regulatory overhang [^]. These factors have driven XRP's price rebound into the $1.40-$1.45 range and recent surges pushing it above $2.50, demonstrating that the Permissioned DEX's activation has no measurable impact on XRP's price within the February 2026 timeframe [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Potential bullish catalysts for XRP include the XRP Community Day on February 11-12, 2026, where Ripple executives are expected to discuss the token's expanding role in capital markets and regulated finance [^] . Sustained institutional demand through spot XRP ETFs, which saw over $1.3 billion in cumulative inflows by mid-February 2026, continues to provide a price floor and upward momentum [^]. Furthermore, the planned rollout of institutional lending features on the XRP Ledger in Q1 2026 could significantly increase XRP's utility [^]. Ongoing partnerships, such as the expansion with GOSH Charity on February 17, 2026, alongside XRP's integration with ISO 20022, underscore its growing real-world applications [^]. Mid-February 2026 also saw reports of significant whale accumulation and a surge in bullish sentiment, reaching a five-week high [^].
Conversely, several bearish factors could exert downward pressure on XRP. Historically, February has been a challenging month for XRP, with an average price decline of 5% [^]. The broader cryptocurrency market has experienced a drawdown, with some analysts noting a "free fall," which negatively impacts XRP's price [^]. Technically, XRP is trading within a descending channel, and failure to reclaim key resistance levels or a breakdown below crucial support levels could lead to further declines [^]. Analyst sentiment has also been tempered, with Standard Chartered cutting its end-2026 XRP price target from $8 to $2.80 on February 16, 2026, potentially impacting investor confidence [^]. Additionally, increased XRP inflows to exchanges could signal increased selling pressure [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 08, 2026
- Closes: March 01, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Potential bullish catalysts for XRP include the XRP Community Day on February 11-12, 2026, where Ripple executives are expected to discuss the token's expanding role in capital markets and regulated finance [^] .
- Trigger: Sustained institutional demand through spot XRP ETFs, which saw over $1.3 billion in cumulative inflows by mid-February 2026, continues to provide a price floor and upward momentum [^] .
- Trigger: Furthermore, the planned rollout of institutional lending features on the XRP Ledger in Q1 2026 could significantly increase XRP's utility [^] .
- Trigger: Ongoing partnerships, such as the expansion with GOSH Charity on February 17, 2026, alongside XRP's integration with ISO 20022, underscore its growing real-world applications [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 8 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 8 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXXRPMAXMON-XRP-26JAN31-280: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
- KXXRPMAXMON-XRP-26JAN31-270: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
- KXXRPMAXMON-XRP-26JAN31-260: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
- KXXRPMAXMON-XRP-26JAN31-250: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
- KXXRPMAXMON-XRP-26JAN31-240: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
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